Cable Forum - Brexit (Old)

What last forecasts? I've already said we need to distinguish between the Government's pro-remain leaflet and the ongoing forecasts of a wide range economists.
I'm asking for evidence to support the statement "And they still keep getting it wrong. Time after time after time. Plenty of evidence for that."

---------- Post added at 11:30 ---------- Previous post was at 11:24 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35973374)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...-may-r9wmh0v89

No wonder the Govt. want this legal advice 'kept quiet'. It's out now anyway so they might aswell publish.

Seemed to have been leaked from within the cabinet - surprise, surprise ! (#oilysnakegove). The vultures are circling round TM !

This is big news - leading on Sky.

Quote:

A "historic constitutional row" over Brexit awaits Theresa May as she returns from the G20 summit.
Labour and opposition parties are threatening to launch proceedings for contempt of parliament unless legal advice given by the attorney general to the prime minister on her Brexit plan is published in full.
The DUP, which props up her minority Tory government, is reportedly ready to sign a joint letter with them to the speaker of the House of Commons unless ministers back down.

https://news.sky.com/story/fresh-bre...mands-11569427

Carth

02-12-2018 11:31

Re: Brexit

I can't be bothered to trawl through the internet all day Andrew, but perhaps these few links may answer your question in some small way.

Forecasts and analysis are simply a guessing game . . links are various and scattered, but the story is the same

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/ci...y-got-it-wrong

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/ec...ital-economics

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-admits-errors

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-st...ong-1511474337

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...ng-186090.html

http://betagroup.co.uk/economists-never-learn/

https://iea.org.uk/uk-economy-likely...in-2018-again/

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/...about-experts/

jfman

02-12-2018 11:48

Re: Brexit

They aren’t simply a guessing game, otherwise there wouldn’t be so much money in it. Yes, they can be wrong and often there’s a margin, but to attribute it to guesswork is simply misleading.

From the first article it describes the FTSE 100 soaring to record highs, which it did in January 2018, however it has fell back 10%. It arguably soared because of the collapse of the pound, a detail omitted by the Express.

---------- Post added at 11:48 ---------- Previous post was at 11:45 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35973400)

This is big news - leading on Sky.

https://news.sky.com/story/fresh-bre...mands-11569427

I’m sure someone in here said as much not long after the details of the May deal came out. Sorry I should have quoted the other link re: trapped indefinitely.

Mick	02-12-2018 12:19

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35973396)

I'm just asking you to back up your statement below with evidence:

Um - the evidence you seek is that the events that were projected to happen, post brexit vote to leave, never happened - that's the evidence FFS!

Hugh	02-12-2018 14:06

Re: Brexit

1 Attachment(s)

From the House of Commons library - the Brexit Process roadmap.

Quote:

Next week, the House of Commons will begin five days of debate on the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the future framework for relations between the UK and the EU. The debates will conclude with what is being called “the meaningful vote”.

Those two texts, along with a “statement that political agreement had been reached” were laid before Parliament on Monday 26 November. The Government cannot ratify the withdrawal agreement until it has secured Parliamentary approval.

So what comes next? This Insight sets out what we expect to happen in the coming days in the lead-up to the Commons’ “meaningful vote” on the deal. It also explains what to look out for once the Commons has taken its decision on 11 December.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...nal-countdown/

jfman

02-12-2018 14:32

Re: Brexit

Government proceeds with proposed course of action.

That’s suitably vague. :D

1andrew1

02-12-2018 14:36

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 35973402)

No one's expecting you to trawl round the internet all day. ;) Thanks for the articles, I'll have a read later. :)

OLD BOY

02-12-2018 15:40

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35973416)

No one's expecting you to trawl round the internet all day. ;) Thanks for the articles, I'll have a read later. :)

You know very well about Project Fear and the forecasts that were made about the economy taking a hit immediately after any vote to leave the EU. It was wrong, wrong, wrong.

The economic forecasts you are relying on for the future assume that negatives from leaving the EU will not be balanced by anything else changing. So while they may be fairly accurate about those negatives (or not), without the balance of positives also being factored in, you get a misleading result. Frankly, I would have thought that was obvious.

jfman

02-12-2018 16:13

Re: Brexit

UK economic growth is lower since the referendum, inflation is up and the pound trading lower. I’m unsure how desirable any of these qualities are.

A lower pound could increase manufacturing exports, increasing our competitiveness. However you’d hope that’d be reflected in higher growth - which is isn’t.

Sephiroth

02-12-2018 16:35

Re: Brexit

Putting aside the silly claims of silly Leave politicians, Short term economic positivity isn’t the be-all and end-all in the current situation. The poorer economic growth needs to be considered against gaining control over our laws, etc.

It is then for government to introduce policies that will improve growth once we are free of the EU.

As ever, the devil is in the politicians.

jfman

02-12-2018 16:41

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35973435)

You are assuming it’s actually possible to deliver long term and sustainable economic growth when outside he largest trading bloc on the planet, with it entirely unclear where this trade will come from and what benefits it will have.

Your proposal is equally as hypothetical as chopping someone’s hands off and suggesting they find a way to tie their shoelaces.

Indeed politicians have told you the best way to deliver economic growth and that is to remain.

I’m still unclear on any EU laws we will be “free of” that will deliver economic benefits. I asked last week and got no meaningful reply.

Pierre

02-12-2018 17:38

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35973398)

I’ve put some fixes in bold.

Almost everything Parliament does is conditional, it can change it’s mind on the basis of any new facts it pleases. Outright remaining is betrayal, a second referendum that remain wins less so. Which is why you are so terrified of it.

I was under the understanding that amending others posts was not allowed on this forum?

---------- Post added at 17:34 ---------- Previous post was at 17:16 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35973398)

Which is why you are so terrified of it.

I’m not afraid of anything, I voted remain, it wouldn’t bother me if we stayed in. But that’s not what the result was.

I’m a Democrat first and foremost

---------- Post added at 17:38 ---------- Previous post was at 17:34 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35973404)

They aren’t simply a guessing game, otherwise there wouldn’t be so much money in it. Yes, they can be wrong and often there’s a margin, but to attribute it to guesswork is simply misleading.l

They are scenarios that have been modelled, all of which assume that the government would be passive in all situations - which simply isn’t the case

nomadking

02-12-2018 17:48

Re: Brexit

If there was a 2nd referendum and the vote was still for leave, would that actually be honoured? If so, then why bother with a 2nd and just get on with honouring the 1st.

jfman

02-12-2018 17:59

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35973437)

I was under the understanding that amending others posts was not allowed on this forum?

---------- Post added at 17:34 ---------- Previous post was at 17:16 ----------

I’m not afraid of anything, I voted remain, it wouldn’t bother me if we stayed in. But that’s not what the result was.

I’m a Democrat first and foremost

---------- Post added at 17:38 ---------- Previous post was at 17:34 ----------

They are scenarios that have been modelled, all of which assume that the government would be passive in all situations - which simply isn’t the case

If I should have copied and pasted your post, then added to it to clarify then I apologise to the forum team for not understanding the rule correctly.

There’s nothing undemocratic about asking the people if this outcome meets their expectations. Being a Democrat first are foremost is a red herring.

If there are any other economic models which assume the Government does act why haven’t these been commissioned by interested parties? The European Research Group is certainly lacking in research in this regard.

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