Cable Forum - Coronavirus (OLD)

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Politics at home is reporting that the Liberal democrats are shelving their conference. I thought only mass attendance events should be cancelled. :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36027104)

Both China and Italy reached severe points before implementing any bans. People won't mess about with the Chinese authorities. Do the Chinese have the same amount of big social or sports gatherings?

A country of a billion people I'm sure they must gather in some way.

China and Italy did reach severe points yes, although not intentionally.

People won't mess with the Chinese authorities - you've raised an interesting point. The UK isn't equipped to enforce such a situation - look at the London riots for instance. Amplify that and what do you have?

However the UK public services being unable to enforce such a situation doesn't mean that a quarantine isn't the most effective way to manage it. Simply that we're a nation of fools who think we know better.

---------- Post added at 09:36 ---------- Previous post was at 09:35 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36027108)

Politics at home is reporting that the Liberal democrats are shelving their conference. I thought only mass attendance events should be cancelled. :D

Boom boom!

I used a similar line with the Scottish Greens yesterday.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027112)

I'm not sure I'm following this Chinese discussion correctly.

Once the Chinese government agreed on a policy of containment they implemented a number of things ranging from:

Enforcing a rule where everyone must stay at home with only one person being allowed to the shops every other day.

Putting police and military checkpoint at city entrances.

Using flying drones to monitor and dispense orders to people below.

In some cases, welding the doors shut on people's flats.

Suffice it to say, there were no large gatherings when they decided to stop them.

Of course not, because when it comes to it the Chinese will end a large gathering with tanks. For better or worse, the subjects of the dictatorship that runs China know not to overstep the mark.

Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36027116)

Suffice it to say, there were no large gatherings when they decided to stop them.

I was under the impression that nomadking was implying this was something they wouldn't ordinarily do in the absence of Coronavirus.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027101)

So your interpretation of the current UK Government policy is that everyone will get it at some point and that’s the explanation of why we are making no efforts to contain it?

Fair enough.

Correct, the contain phase has passed, there's no stopping it now. All we can do is slow down to a slow burner and not a flash fire.

That will reduce the burden on the health services and give the population time to build up some herd immunity to the virus before a vaccine is developed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36027104)

Both China and Italy reached severe points before implementing any bans. People won't mess about with the Chinese authorities. Do the Chinese have the same amount of big social or sports gatherings?

But did they? Only Hubei region reached severe points before any bans in China. It remains to be seen if the other regions jumped the gun and we may see a resergence once the clampdown is lifted.

Here's a graph showing the other Chinese regions compared to S.Korea, Italy and Iran.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027118)

I was under the impression that nomadking was implying this was something they wouldn't ordinarily do in the absence of Coronavirus.

That's what I'm confused about. At the very least the Chinese have busy markets and live close quarters in busy cities. So of course they have "large gatherings"

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027112)

They went far further than banning large gatherings. Areas of China were locked down for nearly 2 months.

Quote:

At 2am on 23 January 2020, authorities issued a notice informing residents of Wuhan that from 10am, all public transport, including buses, railways, flights, and ferry services would be suspended. The Wuhan Airport, the Wuhan railway station, and the Wuhan metro were all closed. The residents of Wuhan were also not allowed to leave the city without permission from the authorities.

Quote:

On 2 February 2020, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, implemented a 7-day restriction where each household was only allowed to have one person leave their home for provisions every two days. This was the first lockdown outside of the Hubei province. 46 of the 54 highway exits in Wenzhou were also closed, effectively placing the city of about 9 million in a semi-lockdown.

Try doing and enforcing that in this country. People can't even be bothered or disciplined enough to not go out if they are coughing and spluttering all over the place. Even if that coughing and spluttering is due to "routine" coughs and colds, they could still be acquiring and transmitting this virus as well.

The peak in the UK might not happen for another 3 months. Are people going to remain disciplined for that length of time?

You only have to look at what happens at weekends and school holidays to see that schoolkids would be milling around with everybody else, including the elderly.

So containment is possible and is the most effective method. We are just ill disciplined and under-resourced to implement it.

Thanks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027123)

So containment is possible and is the most effective method. We are just ill disciplined and under-resourced to implement it.

Thanks.

I don't think true containment would have been possible with this virus except in the following circumstances:

The Chinese shut down Wuhan the instant they identified the virus.

The west quarantined everyone flying from Asia in Dec/Jan.

Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36027125)

Well we will never know. The UK knows best and is going to allow the virus to circulate unchecked in the hope it either goes away or we develop immunity.

It's the stuff of a tinpot third world country, not a supposedly developed country. Indeed the fifth (sixth?) biggest economy in the world.

BBC reporting that Premier league and EFL suspended until at least 4th April Here

Go on then . . . close the London underground, close all the airports, close cinemas, restaurants, libraries (ooops too late), close the motorways, ban sporting events, shut down all the factories, stop all postal deliveries . . . should I continue?

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027123)

So containment is possible and is the most effective method. We are just ill disciplined and under-resourced to implement it.

Thanks.

That extreme level of containment for 7 weeks or more?

China and Italy had other parts of their countries that could support and supply the severely affected areas. If the whole of mainland Europe goes into extreme lockdown, where are the support and supplies going to come from?