Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

I think that there could well be civil disobedience if we leave or if we remain and if we do get a vote or don't get a vote on the deal too.

Cameron created this divisive mess and then walked away. There was speculation today that he wanted to make a comeback, which he denies. I hope he's telling the truth.

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If both parties have denied it, then there's precious little to comment upon. As a general point, I think the EU would like some kind of access to some areas of the UK financial services sector whilst it develops its own infrastructure.

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That'll be a first time experience for him.

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---------- Post added at 08:18 ---------- Previous post was at 08:15 ----------

A side-effect of omething they put it in the water at Eton, I believe. :D

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And for many other politicians...

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I wasn't going to mention the Labour party.

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l meant all the parties.;)

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Yes the Greens are lying toads, look at what they've been telling us about climate change for decades....
Something we should be much more concerned about than Brexit.

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I've just had a quick look to see what preparations the Government are making in the event of riots, shortages, civil unrest etc.

It says that at Brexit time, the police are likely to be told that they cannot take annual leave and that there's a real possibility that the army could be brought in to quash civil unrest.

Local authorities are making their own individual arrangements and MP's from all parties have warned that problems may arise, particularly if we leave without a deal.

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Any chance you could provide a link to anything that substantiates this allegation, please?

There was an article in the Times early September about how the military could be called upon to transport food and medicine, but I can’t find any substantive information on ‘the army can be brought in to quash civil unrest’.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...exit-frbbnjjqp

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This was one of the articles that I read:

https://metro.co.uk/2018/09/09/polic...rexit-7928317/

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Major Brexit donor Arron Banks denies cash came from Russia - and changes mind about leaving EU

https://news.sky.com/story/major-bre...emain-11544655

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I think his comments about changing his mind are possibly a distraction technique.

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yes could be

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None of this Banks stuff has anything to do with the current state of Brexit negotiations. Who gives a toss what Banks did or did not do?

Maybe some Remainers clutch at the re-run the Referendum straw, but that's about it.

We should be debating matters such as the Sunday Times report on the Northern Irish question; the reported insistence by some cabinet members that the Attorney General provides a written opinion on the upcoming deal (if there is one).

We leave the EU very soon and Aaron Banks doesn't figure in that scenario.

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You seem to have left the National Crime Agency and Electoral Commission off your list.

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Another typical unengaging answer. Those agencies are not participating in this thread. How about you engage in substantive issues?

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Nothing in there about the army being used to quash civil unrest.

There appears to be the conflating of two separate points to arrive at an unsubstantiated conclusion.

As I quoted previously, in less inflammatory versions of this story, the military would be called upon for transport and supply duties - no one (to the best of my knowledge) has shown any evidence that military personnel would be involved in riot control.

It’s an old tabloid trick - put two separate things close together, and hope readers will be fooled into thinking they are linked, thus stoking outrage/upset/whatever...

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If you post false information, then expect to be called out. If you can post links and extracts to articles you wish to debate then expect engagement. It really is that simple. And yes, links can be posted from tablets too. ;)

---------- Post added at 09:04 ---------- Previous post was at 08:54 ----------

Good points. Probably also targeting the confirmation bias of its metropolitan Remain leadership in the same way that sister paper the Daily Mail plays to its majority Leave readership.

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Which probably sums up every media outlet and format, from tabloids to news programs. Isn't it great how the same 'story' can have so many different interpretations depending where you read/heard/saw it :D

oh, and let's not forget the infamous social media gossip platforms either :soapbox: :blah: :D

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Truely impartial news is becoming more difficult to find. People just want news they like to hear. Whether it's true or not seems to be an after thought.

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Theresa May's chances of striking Irish border deal '50-50', say EU officials
EU and British red lines remain incompatible as negotiations enter final stage

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...y-eu-officials

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That's not what he meant, if you read the whole thing or actually saw the interview, it was said in the context of the UK political establishment/ elite as being as corrupt as the EU institutions we are leaving.

Also, and as I have always maintained, the way brexit is being managed/negotiated. We we'll end up with some half arsed fudge, half in half out, in which case, what was the point. So if he thought it would end like this, he may not bothered in the first place.

That's how I interpreted it.

It's not that he doesn't still believe in brexit, but he doesn't believe the government can deliver it. He's probably right.

The only way we could have delivered brexit from a position of strength would have been to trigger article 50 the day after the referendum result, and just left.

and then renegotiated with the EU from outside of the EU.

Yes it would have been painful to start with, but not the death by a thousand cuts we've suffered since.

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You could well be right, but if we do end up in a situation where there is civil unrest or riots, I doubt that the police and military will sit back and do nothing.

I have seen the way that some of the police behave in demonstrations in my younger days too, I can't speak for the military.

---------- Post added at 13:45 ---------- Previous post was at 13:43 ----------

True. People often post links to confirm what they are saying, but whose to say they are true? Similarly, the absence of a link doesn't mean that the information isn't true!

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oh I don't know about that Richard. Can you remember the riots of 2011 (Mark Duggan death I think)?

Police & fire services were swamped and, if I recall correctly, ended up just trying to collate evidence for future prosecutions while allowing the frenzy to die out . . and there were more police back then

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Well, I can, and it's very unlikely...

But the absence of a link means there is no way of confirming/denying any validity, and expecting people to take a statement on "faith" - it's only polite to support a premise/statement with some information, otherwise we will end up with opinion being equated with fact. People are entitled to their own opinions, but not to their own facts - it's either factual or not. That's the challenge with so-called "balance" on some news programme - if someone with decades of experience, practical and theoretical, in a field of knowledge goes on, they feel the need to contrast with someone not equally qualified, but just have an opposing opinion.

If one of the viewpoints on a heart-related health issue are from a consultant cardiologist, it is not ‘balance’ for another to be from a Mayan priest who sacrifices people and rips their heart out of their still living body. Whilst both sides can say they have experience of heart-related matters, only one is really knowledgeable in how to keep the patient alive...

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Dublin is being very short sighted about this. If there's no deal, apparently it's a hard border. How long before that sinks in?

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Just make it stop. Just leave with no deal and take it from there.

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It's still possible, and the government may yet be forced into that position, although how the DUP will react will be interesting.

I hope we've got that draft trade deal ready!

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There is a programme on Channel 4 at 8pm tonight called 'What the Nation Really Thinks'.

Channel 4 have commissioned the largest independent survey of attitudes across the UK since the Brexit referendum; the findings of which will be discussed with a panel and audience.

Should be interesting to see what the public think.

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Any fool can see, that the Border Issue is the Alter on which the EU will see Brexit sacrificed on.

According to them the only way to prevent a "hard border" is to stay in the Customs Union. UK wont have the UK split, ergo the only way is for the UK to stay I the Customs Union. If the UK stays in the Customs Union it hasn't left the EU.

Job done EU.

We should leave the EU, and an innovative solution to the N.I. border would be found quickly. because it would have to be. But we should do it from outside of the EU that way we can be sure we have left.

---------- Post added at 18:30 ---------- Previous post was at 18:28 ----------

As long as it is what the nation thinks and not what Channel 4 thinks the nation thinks!

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I'm inclined to agree, although personally I would be surprised if the EU pushed it that far. Let's hope Theresa May doesn't blink first.

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Wonder what result ch4 have paid the "independent" surveyors to arrive at?

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Watch it before commenting on it as you might be surprised.;)

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Strangely defensive, I don't think he's got anything to worry about.

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Nor do l as the fact is Brexit is happening whether one wants it or not.

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so you want us to have a medicine shortage ?
so you want planes to stop flying ?
so you want us less secure?
and before you say project fear read article 50 I posted a while back as we leave every treaty with no deal that covers everything I listed too no deal will be massive disaster for UK

ps we need to leave with a deal and I hope we do but need Ireland border sorted for a deal as nothing is agreed to everything is agreed

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I'm not worried about anything we have had a referendum we are leaving ,any one can commission a pole and word the questions in such a way to sway the result in one direction ,and that's what makes them useless and irrelevant.

so even if it comes back that leave is now at 70% i would still say the figures are worthless .

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we know we debating how we leave

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Ha ha,sorry, do me a favour, project fear really done a number on you.

So We won’t be able to fly to Spain!!! Seriously!

You of course know that virtually all Northern European flights have to transit UK airspace to get to America!??

As for the rest, get a grip. I’ll buy you a new teddy bear so you can sleep at night.

Re: Brexit
 

article 50


1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

project fact in black and white in article 50 what part of all treaties cease do you not understand

I sent you that unicorn your waiting for shall I ?

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You are obviously lacking in what you think the politicians are lacking in......common sense.

Planes will not stop flying, bloody ludicrous and to think so - i’m afraid - makes you look foolish.

Chicken little syndrome.

Spain’s economy is fragile as it is, do you really think they’ll be OK to stop millions of UK pounds entering their country. Do you think the EU, as daft as they are, would stand by and see Spain’s economy endangered. It’s not just Spain, but Greece, Italy etc.

Do you think KLM. Lufthansa, Air France would happily divert around UK airspace.

If we left with no deal, most if not all treaties would continue as normal until they were renegotiated.

No take your scare tactic bollocks and tell someone who cares.

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you think they fly without safety certificates like? it not me that looking foolish it you and I repeat all treaties cease what part of that do you not understand

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Wind your neck in.............

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...no-brexit-deal

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3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

wind yours in it in black and white in article 50

Re: Brexit
 

C4 have said that the poll was done in their 'usual balanced and fair way':

https://www.channel4.com/info/press/...eally-thinks-x

I don't think that they would have anything to gain by doing otherwise.

Some interesting facts so far e.g. 1/3 of leavers think that leaving will be bad for the economy, but still believe that leaving is the right thing to do.

Overall, 49% think that leaving will be bad for the economy (bolstered by 2/3 of remainers who think it will bad), 35% think it will be good for the economy and 16% think that it won't make any difference. It must follow, therefore, that 1/3 of remainders think that remaining in the EU will be bad for the economy!

Overall results of Brexit on the impact of reducing immigration:

45% good, 24% bad and 31% no difference.

The majority think that immigration is a negative thing (58%), but this has decreased since 2013 when 74% thought that it was a bad thing.

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The CAA can issue it’s own safety certificates that are acceptable internationally and to therefore to the EU.

Therefore as stated planes can and would continue to fly, and any further UK/EU bi-lateral arrangement would be negotiated.

Stop believing the bollocks Dave.

Don’t jump at the sight of your own shadow.

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If the referendum was held again with exactly the same question (according to the 20,000 people who took part across the country) the result would be 54% remain and 46% leave.

That's a little higher than I thought it would be, I thought that If would be roughly the same as last time, but with the results transposed.

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I hate to break it to anyone,

But 20,000 is still only 0.6% of those that voted in the referendum.

I’m afraid it means nothing.

The only poll that mattered was the one on the day.

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So . . no medicine, no food, no clothes, no cars, no ferries, no flights, no vacuums (Dyson lol) no banks, no utility services, and the police and armed forces in action quelling the mass riots and civil unrest.

Hospitals will close, fruit, veg & flowers will rot in the fields, chicken will have a funny taste to it, and the pound will only be worth 15 Yen.

Did I miss anything?

Oh yeah, the Irish are probably going to start their agro again.

Bring it on :D :D :D

Re: Brexit
 

They've asked the same question as they did in 2016 so that sorts out your first concern. And yes, anyone can commission a Pole, but commissioning a poll is harder. ;)

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That’s a very accurate appraisal for the chicken Littles amongst us.

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I believe these agreements need to be recognized by other regulators though. A state can't just issue it and be done with it, it's a process. Obviously the UK would be rapidly accepted but there might be disruption for a bit. Although I suspect it will be fudged.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45019603

I still don't think just leaving is realistic. The problem above is solvable but it's just one more item in a list of them. Institutions and businesses have just become to integrated with the rest of the world that to suddenly lose the mechanisms is a disruption the government will want to avoid at all costs. It's easy to suggest we just leave but we're not the ones implementing it and we're not the ones who the public will blame if it goes wrong.

Despite the bravado on here I don't think people will tolerate queues into Dover before losing their minds let alone huge economic disruption and job losses. Britain is not a country that is used to things going badly wrong for I think for some that leads them to think it can't.

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It's going to go wrong. No matter what. Anyone that thinks immediately after brexit things will carry on as they are, is deluded. It will be a mess regardless, it was always going to be.

The question is though in what would be our best position after we come out to get over the shock quickly and start rebuilding.

If we're still shackled to the EU then I think it will be harder for us to emerge stronger.

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I don't think there is a reason why having a slow wind down of our integration with the EU is the wrong approach though. It took decades for these ties to be built up and people are being impatient in expecting to be untied in a couple of years.

Slowly detangling to avoid a big economic shock doesn't mean we don't leave. It just keeps the country as strong as possible before we move on.

If you're a Brexiter then I would think this is smart as well. If you pull the plug then how do you know what happens in the chaos? You can't predict what will happen with a new government and a panicked electorate. Maybe EEA seems like the nearest available lifeboat. Hence why there is an appetite among some Remainers, not me, to vote down May's deal and see what happens next. To shake the kaleidoscope and see where the pieces fall.

Even if that scenario is avoided then we would be a nation going into trade deals desperate for a deal. Hardly an advantageous scenario. Even relating to our negotiations with Europe I don't see how we get a better deal if we're in a free fall.

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I’m afraid the Remainers who vote or want a vote to ensure May’s proposed deal collapses will get a nasty shock when they realise that this results in a hard Brexit!

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So we should just leave with no deal and take it from there but most if not all treaties will continue? Schrödingers Brexit...

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Yup, exactly like it was sold to the Great British Public. Jeez ..

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Maybe but maybe the Brexiters will also be surprised at what's unleashed. The people involved in this process do not seem to know precisely what will happen and neither does anyone else

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I don't anyone believed we would just dance out of the EU, straight into economic utopia.

Don't take the UK public for fools

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Well, you would certainly get that impression from the press reports!

The media is bound to take this attitude because they do not have access to the confidential negotiations that are taking place.

I think most people will be pleasantly surprised when they see the result of the work that has gone into this, with a well constructed withdrawal agreement.

Then watch as the remainers shout from the rooftops that we will never get a trade deal. All very predictable.

For those who are genuinely worried about this, as opposed to those who are just making political points, while a hard Brexit would not result in the sky caving in, we will almost certainly have a negotiated withdrawal agreement within weeks. Don't listen to the scare merchants who would have you believe that the end of the world is nigh. They've been saying such things for many years and we are still here.

Re: Brexit
 

But how much would they really tolerate in the name of Brexit? As I said it's easy to say we'll deal with it when it's theoretical with talk of GDP and just in time manufacturing.

However how much real consequence will people put up with? How much disruption before they get angry and demand the politicians do something, anything, to alleviate it?

That said I think there will be either a deal or a stalling mechanism by another name. I don't think either the UK or the EU will go with no deal because it's just a massive headache.

Re: Brexit
 

And the ones who really want to leave like me - do not give a shit one way or the other, leaving was not just about money FFS, we just want to get out of that cancerous club.

This is why we need to leave the EU in it's entirety - we do not need to be in a con job membership club to do trade deals. The other benefit is, we also save £39 Billion divorce bill, another con the corrupted EU said we owe them, they have robbed us and conned us for years - time to get on and leave that toxic shambolic union.

Re: Brexit
 

In the spirit of 'innocent until proven guilty', in what way have we been 'robbed and conned' and what judicial actions have rectified this situation?

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Ok but a lot of people will feel differently if it's their money that's going. How many people will feel the same when their jobs/income might be hit?

Re: Brexit
 

Sorry don't believe that crap - it's project fear that is just utter garbage.

---------- Post added at 16:38 ---------- Previous post was at 16:34 ----------

Rubbish - it is not in the spirit of anything. They have conned us for many years, and it's easy - we put MORE in than we get out, it's a total con job!!!

Re: Brexit
 

Ok but it's not inconceivable that when we leave an institution whose mechanisms we've used as a the basis for many of our cross border trade deals, transport and law that there might be disruption. My point is if everything doesn't just continue as normal then we will see what the actual level of pain the public will be willing to put up with.

Re: Brexit
 

Lets hope the pain does not get too bad but rest assured if it does there will inevitably be a weeping and gnashing of teeth from some of the public and rest assured they will be looking for someone to blame for their pain.

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Conned on the Working Time Directive?

How?

As an employee, you can opt-out of the WTD - the Directive gives the employee the choice, rather than the employer forcing it on someone.

Also, I think it's pretty reasonable not to ask someone to work over 48 hours a week for over 17 weeks - ever heard of work/life balance?

If the following things are being conned, bring it on...

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Re: Brexit
 

How do you work out that all these jobs are at risk when we will continue to trade with the EU as well as forge new trade deals, creating even more jobs?

Re: Brexit
 

Most employees don't really have the choice though in the real world, just as they don't regarding Sunday working.

Re: Brexit
 

i agreed with you on the other two, but you avoided my question on why the WTD is a bad thing...

The process may not have been ideal, but the outcome was optimal (unless you are an employer who didn’t want to give your employees decent holidays or working hours).

---------- Post added at 18:13 ---------- Previous post was at 18:12 ----------

Yes, they do - it’s illegal to force employees to opt out.

---------- Post added at 18:14 ---------- Previous post was at 18:13 ----------

And who will forge new trade deals with us, when if we take a no deal Brexit and walk away, we show we are not willing to honour deals?

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It is perfectly acceptable under EU rules to give notice of leaving. Article 50.

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Our successive governments have agreed to do this over many years, it wasn't stolen from us. Were these governments incompetent, negligent or corrupt?

---------- Post added at 19:05 ---------- Previous post was at 19:03 ----------

Does working long hours affect the health and safety of employees?

Re: Brexit
 

I understand that Banks got some bad news today. No wonder Brexiters are trying to discuss anything else.
https://news.sky.com/story/arron-ban...aches-11546121

Re: Brexit
 

Wtf is this obsession with Banks FFS ?

No wonder nothing.

Banks is a multi millionaire, the fines imposed are small change to him - it's not bad news for him or Brexiteers.

- you keep going on about him but he did not help me make my decision to vote leave and I am damn well sure that goes for millions of others. There is nothing to discuss about Banks.

Re: Brexit
 

Just because something is illegal doesn't mean that it doesn't happen. However, force isn't usually used, it's much more subtle than that and it's sometimes the employee who opts out 'voluntarily', even when they don't want to.

In the real world staff are afraid that not doing so when 'encouraged' to could ruin promotion prospects or could make them a primary consideration should redundancies ever become neccessary because they fear not being viewed as a team player or it being suggested that they don't put the company first.

In a worst case scenario, it's not too difficult for employers to find excuses to get rid of somebody.

Re: Brexit
 

Most employees have plenty of choice, unless they work in the NHS. Jobs are advertised with the hours expected. If it matters to you that you don't work Sundays and not more than 48 hours per week, then don't apply for a job that requires this.

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You know that European Army we were told, by Europhile Nick Clegg, would never happen?

https://fullfact.org/europe/hunt-eu-army/

Well, typically, and as I have previously commented on, here it comes.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8619721.html

And Macron, the stupid French Twit, reckons they need it to protect themselves against the US?? That’s just offensive.

So you see the end game here is to dissolve NATO. Well I know who I would rather pin my allegiance too. The yanks or cheese eating surrender monkeys.............

Re: Brexit
 

My point is that employers want employees to be totally flexible to their needs and that, whilst this law does exist and will help some people, most will ultimately have no choice.

Re: Brexit
 

Hi, I have been trying to find anything about France making this an H&S issue but I haven’t had luck yet. Could you link me up? I worked ld be interested to know basis the WTD was before the change.

I did find an interesting parliamentary research paper discussing the WTD including the UK objections to the H&S basis of the WTD and the subsequent ECJ judgement. It also has nice appendices on the working hours and holidays of different then EU countries - http://researchbriefings.files.parli...6/RP96-106.pdf

Re: Brexit
 

A complete history here

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full...23263X18760547

Knock yourself out, once you’ve Read it, any chance of doing us a quick appraisal?

Re: Brexit
 

Mick whilst it may not be just about the money there are a LOT of businesses exposed. It is not only the loss of trade but many took a big hit, particularly on cash reserves when pound fell after the vote. Another drop of 10%+ will kill many businesses. There is much more to it than in any out especially if profitable businesses can't pay wages because they ain't got cash.

Re: Brexit
 

Donald Trump has talked about leaving NATO too

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...t-would-happen

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Duh.......Dave i’m Starting to worry that you’re not the sharpest tool in the box, so to speak.

Because, pretty much since the end of the war, and certainly in recent years, the US has pretty much bankrolled NATO and most of the EU, post Cold War.

The reason Trump questioned the US role in NATO was because the EU members were/are taking the piss. Spending sod all and relying on the US to provide the muscle.

I agree with Trump on this issue.

Re: Brexit
 

says the man that don't understand all treaty cease mean in article 50 and cut the abuse out I never abused you and not gonna stope to your level

Re: Brexit
 

Why don't you just stick to the facts and avoid the personal attacks?

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Go for the ball, not the man. You weaken your subsequent points by your unnecessary put-down.

---------- Post added at 23:52 ---------- Previous post was at 23:47 ----------

Not an obsession. But a bit strange that on a day when he's found to be breaking the law, Brexiiters suddenly become interested in the Working Time Directive. :D

Re: Brexit
 

Yawn, do you actually have any valid point here or what ? :zzz:

Re: Brexit
 

Two.

Re: Brexit