Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Well the old polls are tight, little nudge here, little nudge there all within margin of error between narrow majority/minority.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Alba are doing well... ;)

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1617912273

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

A roaring success. :D

A bit of analysis was done (not by me!) on twitter a few days back that pointed to where they could get success on the list and that's between 5 and 7% across the regions but it was the Labour party that had the most 'at risk' seats based on the last election. But the Holyrood system is quite complicated so whether that holds up in reality or not we'd have to wait and see.

I'd be inclined to think that even with a paltry showing Salmond would get in whatever region he is standing in.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Many European voting systems have a formal 5% polling threshold below which you don’t get allocated any seats. We don’t have that here but historically that is more or less the tipping point. If Eck can’t get beyond 5% he probably won’t get any seats.

The question of who he starts stealing them from if he does get any is interesting. Labour is still looking very weak which is unsurprising but still disappointing (and I say that as someone who has never voted for them). The only way the SNP is going to be seriously dented is if they lose some of their central belt seats and it is unlikely anyone but Labour can do that.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Probably spent too much time for a Saturday morning overthinking what creates the artificial threshold trying to work out why 3% of the vote in a 129 member Parliament doesn’t get 3 or 4 seats then realised the lists aren’t balancing 129 they’re each individually balancing ~17.

Even where small parties have had success on a national scale it’s really how concentrated their vote is that got seats (Scottish Socialists in 2003 spring to mind - that was driven by a 15% share in Glasgow).

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

As I'm a bit more sad I decided to look into the Alba party's chances based on 'personality'.

If they're not going to hit the 5-7% 'threshold' nationally, which the polls strongly indicate they won't, then they'd be relying on personality in each area (as Tommy Sheridan did with the SSP in Glasgow)

Salmond himself is in North East Scotland where the Lib Dems got a solitary seat on 6%/18,444 votes. In the good old days (1999) Salmond would win about that many votes in Banff and Buchan. His ability to peddle the message that the SNP didn't take a solitary seat off the North East list plus his profile (if that's viewed is positive) might take him over. It could actually be a damning indictment of what the public think of him if he doesn't.

In Lothian their most high profile candidate is Kenny MacAskill the sitting MP for East Lothian but he underperformed vs the SNP nationally (he took 36% of the vote in that constituency/20k votes). The Greens got 2 list seats off 34k (10.6%) votes in the region so I wonder if Kenny can push the dial there.

Neale Hanvey is the sitting MP for Kircaldy and Cowdenbeath who won his seat on 16,568 votes in 2019 while suspended from the SNP. He's in mid-Scotland and Fife where the Greens got one off the list on 17,860 (6.1%).

I've genuinely never heard of the rest of them (well, Alex Arthur the former pro-boxer) and if Hanvey didn't have "MP" after his name I'd not have clicked on him either.

Three seats though if there's a minority Government...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Not a joke/parody post - this is real...

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1618228359

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Any idea who the Loch Ness monster is endorsing yet?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The Green Party? :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Maybe, doubt it'll be anything Robert the Bruce supports though, the monster took a very dim view of stabbing someone in a church apparently

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That's the jock ness monster:)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I've read the manifesto a few times now but can anyone name a Scottish Labour policy?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Here you go.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-56750856

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

So Nicola, big head, small body, Sturgeon, makes no overall progress, since she took reigns of the SNP. No overall majority, again, sure they will be in bed with the Greens, in the Scottish Parliament, but and I borrow the rule from the EU Referendum Remainers rule book, the vote share for Tories, Labour and Lib Dem’s, essentially, anti-independence parties, beat the vote share of the separatist parties. Such a crying shame.