Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35973068)

I don't think that is fair, Gavin. When Theresa May looked at the way ahead, she knew that she would be the fall guy if Brexit was not a success. So she worked out a way to both protect business and take some of the advantages of Brexit (such as an end to free movement) by way of a transitional arrangement to bridge the gap between our leaving the EU and the date by which we get a trade deal with the EU.

It has been widely acknowledged on both sides of the argument how resilient she has been, and nothing has side-tracked her despite all the noises-off both in Parliament and even from within her own party, against all the hostility she has taken from the EU. By the end of her tour of the nations, she will then have a debate in the Commons lasting days to discuss what happens next.

What she will be able to claim is:

- She would have done her absolute best to put in place a transition period that would assist business on both sides of the Channel to come to terms with the Brexit arrangements.

- She will have ensured that the country did not take an economic hit during the gap between Brexiting and securing an EU trade deal.

- She will have made sure that everyone understood, as far as it was possible for them to understand, the nature of the Withdrawal Agreement, so that nobody could say afterwards, at least with credibility, that the government did not do enough to explain the intention of that Agreement.

- Her tour of the nations and her plea to the public to make their wishes known to their MPs would have ensured that people could not say (again with credibility) that they had no opportunity to put their views forward.

So after the long debate in the Commons, MPs will vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. Everyone will understand by then what it means. If they vote it down, the Prime Minister will announce that in the absence of an agreement, Article 50 will be activated on 29 March and we wiil be out of the EU, ready to negotiate a trade deal, which will probably take up to two years in all likelihood. She will then announce the measures that will be in place to secure the speediest possible movement of goods and the arrangements in place for businesses to ensure that trade with the EU can continue relatively unimpeded, squashing yet another remoaner argument that no preparations have been done for Brexit without a deal.

Despite what others are saying about Theresa May's future prospects, I think it will be a case of game, set and match to Theresa May and a pure Brexit achieved.

Not bad for a couple of years hard grind against all the odds. Who else could have achieved this outcome?

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You are so funny, Mr K! You were trying to be funny, weren't you? This post of yours was hilarious! :D

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Another misunderstanding. Deliberate, I think.

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You obviously think all trade with the EU will cease if we come out of the EU with no deal. Well, that's completely wrong, and I think you know that, although I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. We will simply be trading on WTO terms until we get the trade agreement we are seeking. It is as simple as that. No need to panic, Mr Mainwaring.

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35973088)

Well, OB empty shelves are a definite possibility in a no deal scenario, at least initially. Lorries getting stuck at the ports with checks and the public panic buying.

What is amusing though is your total devotion to TM and her achieving 'pure Brexit' :D

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35973083)

So we will lose the ability to negotiate meaningful trade deals with anyone - nobody can compete with the EU if they flood the UK with tariff free goods/services on our doorstep.

Even our own companies will be harmed from this as their exports will be hit by tariffs in the EU side, so we won’t be competing on a level playing field.

We will also lose the benefit of tax revenue from tariffs.

Originally Posted by djfunkdup (Post 35973098)

Of course i don't think that OB lol i was just laughing at Mr Teat's silly assumptions that's all :) i don't post much in this thread as i don't see the point if honest.We are leaving and that's that .End of :)

Anyway the silly season starts tomrw so nothing is going to get done now until the second week in January.It's all going to be pissed people and funny hats for the next 5 weeks lol Although its a different kinda pissed people and different kinda funny hats from many that post in this thread :naughty: :naughty: :D:D

119-Days 9-Hrs 6-Min and 50-Seconds ;)

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35973100)

My dear chap, if the EU puts in place barriers to their own exports to us, we will simply import cheaper goods from elsewhere!

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You have this remarkable ability to see only one side of the equation.

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Oh, sorry, I got the wrong end of the stick there!! I thought you were actually putting that forward as something to be worried about!

My faith in you is restored!

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35973080)

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35973100)

You have this remarkable ability to see only one side of the equation.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35973105)

I wonder how we'll have empty supermarket shelves when this flood happens?

If it's tariff free won't costs come down?

How does jfman's flood of goods balance against the BoE "worst case" financial forecast?

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35973108)

I don’t think it’s remarkable to view all trade agreements as “what’s in it for us”. It’s hardly a groundbreaking interpretation of capitalism.

If we unilaterally impose no tariff or controls on EU goods and services that leaves us in a weak negotiating position with the rest of the world.

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Does the BoE assume we put no tariffs on EU imports?

If not we are talking about different hypothetical futures, neither of them positive for different reasons. Tariff free can’t reduce costs from EU countries because they already are tariff free.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35973112)

Finally you have seen the light!

The financial forecasts are hypothetical and nothing more.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35973118)

I’m quite sure there isn’t an entire industry around their predictions because they are no better than guesswork.

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35973121)

Could of course, be worse than they're forecasting ! ;)

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35973126)

Or better than the Brexiteers' wildest expectations.

That's quite a wide margin for error, don't you think, Mr K?

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35973112)

Finally you have seen the light!

The financial forecasts are hypothetical and nothing more.

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35973121)

Could of course, be worse than they're forecasting ! ;)

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35973145)

This cliff edge leading us to the Chancellor’s emergency budget. I can’t wait!

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35973151)

You really are willing us to fail, aren't you? Not very patriotic of you, I'd say.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35973131)

Some Brexiters ' wildest dreams aren't very aspirational or numeric. They've moved from the land of milk and honey to we survived the Blitz, we'll survive Brexit. ;)

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 35973153)

It’s my duty to report on matters as I see fit. Unless you actively think nationalism should trump freedom of speech? That’s rather dangerous if you do.