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Sephiroth 15-06-2020 08:29
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36039809)
That’s not really a snag compared to doing nothing and tens of thousands dying. The health and economic impact would be much worse longer term if it’s not controlled.

To go “all out heavy” and nothing come of it you can quickly open everything back up and minimise impact. Underplay it and it could take months to get back under control.
Yep.

nomadking 15-06-2020 08:33
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36039809)
That’s not really a snag compared to doing nothing and tens of thousands dying. The health and economic impact would be much worse longer term if it’s not controlled.

To go “all out heavy” and nothing come of it you can quickly open everything back up and minimise impact. Underplay it and it could take months to get back under control.
If you clamp down too quickly, too many people haven't acquired any immunity, and so when you ease off, further outbreaks occur. As is shown in China and in South Korea. It only takes one or two people to create hundreds or even thousands of cases before anybody notices.

jfman 15-06-2020 08:44
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36039815)
If you clamp down too quickly, too many people haven't acquired any immunity, and so when you ease off, further outbreaks occur. As is shown in China and in South Korea. It only takes one or two people to create hundreds or even thousands of cases before anybody notices.
Manufacturing herd immunity by controlling the virus isn’t a viable option. Estimates put antibodies in anything between 4 and 14% of populations across the world - even heavily hit areas of Spain/Germany, at a cost of 50,000 lives (those we count) for us with no consideration of longer term health implications for those infected. And taken five months.

To get to 80% infected puts you in the region of two years of disruption and various stages of restrictions. Plus 200,000+ deaths. This without any evidence of long term immunity at all.

Economically that’s madness to drag it out for so long.

Sephiroth 15-06-2020 08:52
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36039817)
Manufacturing herd immunity by controlling the virus isn’t a viable option. Estimates put antibodies in anything between 4 and 14% of populations across the world - even heavily hit areas of Spain/Germany, at a cost of 50,000 lives (those we count) for us with no consideration of longer term health implications for those infected. And taken five months.

To get to 80% infected puts you in the region of two years of disruption and various stages of restrictions. Plus 200,000+ deaths. This without any evidence of long term immunity at all.

Economically that’s madness to drag it out for so long.
An interesting fork point. Opening up (not criticising it) in an unknown carrier situation (which is where we are), introduces a natural herd immunity path.

The buggeration factor might be that if this is an artificially manufactured virus, designed to defeat immunity, then we're all doomed-ish.

Logically, though, if we're doomed anyway we might as well open up save to the extent that the biologists cabn determine the true nature of the virus.

Complicated.

jfman 15-06-2020 09:06
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36039818)
An interesting fork point. Opening up (not criticising it) in an unknown carrier situation (which is where we are), introduces a natural herd immunity path.

The buggeration factor might be that if this is an artificially manufactured virus, designed to defeat immunity, then we're all doomed-ish.

Logically, though, if we're doomed anyway we might as well open up save to the extent that the biologists cabn determine the true nature of the virus.

Complicated.
The only problem is the restrictions are just one part of the economic downturn. The other part being consumer confidence during a deadly pandemic. Shares around the world are down this morning due to tensions over the virus despite restrictions easing in Europe. Tensions that will remain for some time to come if there’s uncontrolled/little controlled spread and no guarantee of long term immunity.

If in two years people start getting it all over again as immunity doesn’t last the economic impact would be even worse. We’d almost never get back to what we consider ‘normal’.

But yes I agree it’s extremely complicated - with decisions potentially impacting the next decade if we (the world as a whole) get them wrong.

I know that’s a lot of doom for a Monday morning I’m away to cheer myself up with coffee.

Damien 15-06-2020 09:16
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36039818)
An interesting fork point. Opening up (not criticising it) in an unknown carrier situation (which is where we are), introduces a natural herd immunity path.

The buggeration factor might be that if this is an artificially manufactured virus, designed to defeat immunity, then we're all doomed-ish.

Logically, though, if we're doomed anyway we might as well open up save to the extent that the biologists cabn determine the true nature of the virus.

Complicated.
I think it was designed to defeat immunity we would have seen evidence of that by now. It seems we do develop an immune response thankfully.

Sephiroth 15-06-2020 10:39
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36039822)
I think it was designed to defeat immunity we would have seen evidence of that by now. It seems we do develop an immune response thankfully.
That would be excellent news but I haven't seen definitive proof that we have immunity after infection or vaccine but see below.

Some useful news is given in a paper at https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipelin...he-coronavirus

Mixed into that useful news is an explanation of why older folk are at greater risk of having a really difficult time (cytokine storm).

It's the first article I've seen that gets down to to the cellular type level and its effect on CV.

Key concluding paragraph quoted below:

Quote:
So overall, this paper makes the prospects for a vaccine look good: there is indeed a robust response by the adaptive immune system, to several coronavirus proteins. And vaccine developers will want to think about adding in some of the other antigens mentioned in this paper, in addition to the Spike antigens that have been the focus thus far. It seems fair to say, though, that the first wave of vaccines will likely be Spike-o-centric, and later vaccines might have these other antigens included in the mix. But it also seems that Spike-protein-targeted vaccines should be pretty effective, so that’s good. The other good news is that this team looked for the signs of an antibody-dependent-enhancement response, which would be bad news, and did not find evidence of it in the recovering patients (I didn’t go into these details, but wanted to mention that finding, which is quite reassuring). And it also looks like the prospects for (reasonably) lasting immunity after infection (or after vaccination) are good. This, from what I can see, is just the sort of response that you’d want to see for that to be the case. Clinical data will be the real decider on that, but there’s no reason so far to think that a person won’t have such immunity if they fit this profile.

figgyburn 15-06-2020 11:07
Re: Coronavirus
 
Never mind all that pandemic stuff, Primark is open again and the world is fine.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...aths-lockdown/

Unbelievable.............

Maggy 15-06-2020 11:10
Re: Coronavirus
 
I'm now the only person wearing a mask when shopping at the supermarket/food shops..

jfman 15-06-2020 11:22
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by figgyburn (Post 36039841)
Never mind all that pandemic stuff, Primark is open again and the world is fine.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...aths-lockdown/

Unbelievable.............
Does it really sell anything you couldn't get on Amazon in the last 13 weeks ffs.

Carth 15-06-2020 12:41
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36039845)
Does it really sell anything you couldn't get on Amazon in the last 13 weeks ffs.
It's like a drug to them mate, they haven't had a wander around the store for their fix of 'cheap ill fitting throw away' crap for months ;)


Facebook will be full of 'me in Primark' selfies :)

mrmistoffelees 15-06-2020 12:55
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36039845)
Does it really sell anything you couldn't get on Amazon in the last 13 weeks ffs.
For some reason in Middlesbrough they started queuing from 5am to get into Primark with the queue up to 1/4 mile long at some point. God knows why.

Sports Direct had massive queues as well but a large propensity was apparently NHS staff tempted by the 50% off everything.

Having ventured out to the supermarket for the first time in 13 or 14 weeks I'm surprised I'm not on an assault charge. Peoples behaviour is ridiculous and it doesn't feel safe. I lost count of the amount of times I told people to move away from me.

cimt 15-06-2020 13:01
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36039857)
For some reason in Middlesbrough they started queuing from 5am to get into Primark with the queue up to 1/4 mile long at some point. God knows why.

Sports Direct had massive queues as well but a large propensity was apparently NHS staff tempted by the 50% off everything.

Having ventured out to the supermarket for the first time in 13 or 14 weeks I'm surprised I'm not on an assault charge. Peoples behaviour is ridiculous and it doesn't feel safe. I lost count of the amount of times I told people to move away from me.
How far did the queue go for Primark? I saw on Twitter that it went right round to where the Princess Alice used to be.

In Leeds it has been the same. Do people really need new clothes that bad?

Damien 15-06-2020 13:02
Re: Coronavirus
 
Don't underestimate the appeal of normality. Same with those queues for McDonald's, the sheer relief of doing something conventional, something normal, something you used to do before the lockdown is a powerful draw. It's not so much they need some cheap jeans or a BigMac but that feeling that life can and will be normal again.

denphone 15-06-2020 13:11
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by cimt (Post 36039858)
How far did the queue go for Primark? I saw on Twitter that it went right round to where the Princess Alice used to be.

In Leeds it has been the same. Do people really need new clothes that bad?
l have enough clothes for the next 5 years due to the many T Shirts , shorts , etc etc bought for me from my kind family.

l have not ventured out for 12 weeks and l have no intention of venturing out for a fair while yet.


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