Cable Forum - UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050222)

I've not followed it closely enough to say one way or the other, but financially it's so unimportant that I'm sure there's room for flex.

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what drives Brexit, and what has driven anti-EU sentiment in the UK over many years.

Brexit is about the politics of who decides, not cold calculations about finances. Fisheries are of limited economic impact (although this is in part because the CFP has fostered an environment where that could become so) but their political impact in north east Scotland, for example, is enormous. In fact its impact in Scotland as a whole, and the whole union question, shouldn't be underestimated; if UK Gov eventually concedes on this it will be rightly used by the SNP to hammer the Scottish Tories for a betrayal (quite regardless of the fact that the SNP is pro-EU membership, and therefore membership of the CFP).

Beyond Scottish politics, or politics more generally, for an island nation, who makes the laws that affect our territorial waters and our exclusive economic zone are of immense symbolic importance.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050217)

In terms of levers, I suspect the French fishermen and their ability to blockade the port of Calais has put this on the negotiating table. It's something we should be able to come to a deal on though - say a phased withdrawal from British waters.

I certainly sypport transitional arrangements. Of course no fish factory ships.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36050223)

I think there's also been a deliberate positioning of necessary stock management in order to cultivate anti-EU sentiment. I more than appreciate that Brexit is not about economics.
Obviously, fishing impacts small areas quite dramatically which is why it does not make sense for French fishermen for the switch to be turned off overnight but to ensure a managed change to a new system or for British fishermen to lose access to the markets where most of its catches are sold.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050220)

What's wrong with this is that a different system has operated for 40 years which is not the case in the other territories you mention. You simply damage people's livelihoods overnight by a drastic change and crucially, French fishermen have strong leverage.
The key is a phased change which should be negotiable by a strong UK government with skilled negotiators.

I, and a lot of others, will have serious issues with what you've written.

First, as a Brit, you shouldn't be siding with the other side's fishermen. It's their problem In any case, for the past 40 years, our fishing communities have suffered.

I suspect that it is we who have the leverage, No deal, no fish. So sod 'em if the EU persists on its current line.

Phased change? No problem - seems reasonable.

---------- Post added at 12:22 ---------- Previous post was at 12:20 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050225)

First half of the sentence, fairness to French fishermen should not be your worry.

Second half of the sentence - reasonable so long as it's matched by ground given by the EU.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050220)

It changed "overnight" when the EEC did a power grab over fishing, just when when countries with large fishing areas such as UK, Ireland, Iceland, Denmark, and Norway were looking to join the EEC.
So why shouldn't it change? The UN agreement says we have control, and any historic fishing rights are invalid.
Why should there have been a drastic change on fishing. The EU are holding out on fishing at the expense of even greater "drastic changes". The initial quotas are unlikely to be that different to now.
Skill or otherwise of negotiators is irrelevant, when the EU is obstinate and doesn't have to agree to anything they don't want to and still keep things as they are for them. Under what they are looking for on EVERYTHING, is for things to be how THEY want them "unless and until" they say otherwise. If instead the EU had to agree or lose access, then they might be more reasonable, as they have something to lose. Eg if the UK wanted to reduce the EUs share, they couldn't unless the EU agreed. No (unarmed) negotiators can get around that.

Link

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The Community has three fisheries agreements with Norway, namely the bilateral, the trilateral and the neighbouring agreements. The bilateral arrangement covers the North Sea and the Atlantic, the trilateral agreement covers Skagerrak and Kattegat (Denmark, Sweden and Norway) and the neighbourhood arrangement covers the Swedish fishery in Norwegian waters of the North Sea.
...
The agreements are implemented in the form of annual fisheries arrangements. The bilateral and the trilateral arrangements allow for the setting of TACs for joint stocks, transfers of fishing possibilities, joint technical measures and issues related to control and enforcement. The neighbourhood arrangement includes fishing possibilities transferred from Norway to Sweden in accordance with the fisheries agreement between Norway and Sweden of December 1976.
The bilateral agreement is the single most important agreement the Community has with a third party both in terms of exchange of fish possibilities and in terms of joint management measures.

---------- Post added at 12:38 ---------- Previous post was at 12:23 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050225)

Stock management? I doubt there would be any great divergence on that(and many other matters) between the UK and the EU. That is already the subject of several agreements the EU has with non-EU countries, so adding the UK to the list shouldn't be an issue for them.
The central issue is "who decides" on quotas etc.

A deal on fishing could've been done and dusted, if the EU wasn't so obstinate and lacking in "good faith".

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36050226)

First half of the sentence, fairness to French fishermen should not be your worry.

Second half of the sentence - reasonable so long as it's matched by ground given by the EU.

French fishermen have disprortionate leverage in the EU and UK as they're effective at blocking the Port of Calais, our main route into Europe. We can't pretend it doesn't happen. Hence a phased agreement is even more important.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050225)

It didn't help that Defra sold large chunks of the UK quota to large multinationals so the UK small boat fleet which is 77% of the UK fleet has 4% of the quota. 49% of the English quota is owned by foreign companies. National governments distribute their quotas as they see fit.

https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/201...-michael-gove/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52420116

Of course, we will have a catch 22 situation where, if talks collapse over fishing rights, then UK the UK fishing industry will not have agreed quotas with the EU but fish landed in the UK will be subject to tariffs and possible non-tariff barriers if exported to the EU so we win one one hand and lose on the other.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36050228)

It changed "overnight" when the EEC did a power grab over fishing, just when when countries with large fishing areas such as UK, Ireland, Iceland, Denmark, and Norway were looking to join the EEC.

Presumably French and other fishermen's business models weren't based around fishing in UK waters. This has happened over a 40-year period and they are keen to protect their livelihoods. Unfortunately, they are good at port blockades so catch politicians' ears quite effectively.
This is how it works. Not saying it's good or bad, it's just the way it is.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050231)

The French fishermen have no leverage on the UK. Acts of criminal disorder are for the French authorities to resolve.

UK politicians could not sell that rationale to the public. A phased agreement is important only as a concession we might make to the EU in a trade off for other matters of value.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36050232)

Of course, we will have a catch 22 situation where, if talks collapse over fishing rights, then UK the UK fishing industry will not have agreed quotas with the EU but fish landed in the UK will be subject to tariffs and possible non-tariff barriers if exported to the EU so we win one one hand and lose on the other.

Yes, a key (or quay ;)) dilemma!

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050127)

Ed Milliband performed well tonight, I was very surprised to see how effectively he stepped up. https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/s...46881272029188

I saw some of this performance on the news. Talk about dramatic! I thought he was having a funny turn!

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050233)

So who was catching the fish in UK waters back then? Why did the EEC do a power grab of fishing waters around that time?
Nobody is saying the EU should be shut out completely whatever, just that it has has to be by agreement and not one that the EU one-sidedly controls.
Link

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He wrote: “The UK has the fifth largest exclusive economic zone in the world (approximately 6.8 million square kilometers) and the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) surrounding the United Kingdom accounts for 11% of the total area, with some 774,000 square kilometers (the others being EEZs of Crown Dependencies or British Overseas Territories).
“Apart from Norway, which is not part of the EU’s marine management, the British EEZ is the largest” shared “EEZ” operating within the framework of the common fisheries policy (CFP) in Northern Europe .

If fishing is such a huge deal to the EU, shouldn't that have concentrated EU minds on getting a trade deal FIRST?
The EU has known all along that control of fishing was a huge red line for the UK.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

German TV suggested that Theresa May needed a Brexorcist to help her understand that if you leave the EU, you no longer enjoy its benefits. :D

A bit of light relief here,https://twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/statu...20462824542210

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050240)

So how come other non-EU countries also enjoy the "benefits"?

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20

Though apparently if you leave the EU, it's entirely reasonable to be required to fulfil its obligations ...