Re: Coronavirus
 

It's a mess. The NEU’s views are supported by the paper from Imperial College London which found the UK’s new Covid variant spread quickest among under-20s and the R-rate was unlikely to drop below one unless all schools were closed.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...eprint-VOC.pdf

Re: Coronavirus
 

Is this linked to the Independent Sage work?

Reading online that Westminster are just waiting it out a few more days before closing all the schools. I wonder how much notice they’ll give.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Except its not "out of control" nationally, the problems are regional.

---------- Post added at 22:40 ---------- Previous post was at 22:40 ----------

Ummm, I think someone forgot their mask .... :erm:

Re: Coronavirus
 

It is out of control, if you’re thinking ten - fourteen days ahead.

Considering in England all but one region is either currently tier 3 or 4 that doesn’t seem particularly a regional issue to me. (And apparently more regions being stepped up from 3 to 4 in the next 48/72 hours) it sounds more like a national problem......

Re: Coronavirus
 

A national problem does not make it nationally "out of control".

The cases and rates around here are well below the "National Average".
Our hospitals might be busy, but they are certainly not overwhelmed by covid patients (there are less than back in November).

There is more to the UK than just London and the South East.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Blame our wonderful leader. Trying to do what's popular and not what's needed. He'll just have to end closing schools for longer and having restrictions for longer as a result. Its a recurring theme.

Watched a bit of the cricket from New Zealand overnight. Full crowd, no masks, life as normal. Maybe be Bozza could take a few tips in leadership.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Or maybe he could reduce our population by 90% and relocate us to the middle of the Pacific Ocean. :rolleyes:

Re: Coronavirus
 

Success is success and while Boris can’t do what you’ve stated there are simple tasks that he could undertake - following the scientific advice at the time rather than weeks/months later would be a reasonable start. As would clear messaging to the public rather than finding out what’s about to happen from Robert Peston (or others) Twitter feed.

---------- Post added at 09:47 ---------- Previous post was at 09:45 ----------

Now, now, Mr. K you know full well Boris can never be wrong. Those pesky Civil Servants must be delaying all that scientific advice or keeping it from him altogether. In fact, they must also be feeding him lines they know to be false to make him look stupid like “schools are safe”.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I agree, New Zealand has been successful. The Blessed Madonna Our Lady Jacinda played her hand well. But it was a very good hand to begin with - something that is rarely acknowledged by those who make dim-witted, two-dimensional comparisons between the situation in NZ and just about any other western nation in the world.

On the matter of Boris, I simply point out (not for the first time) that despite relatively minor differences in policy, the present situation in England and Scotland is not very different.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I’m not professing any expertise but That’s what haS always been said, and known.

Viruses are essentially symbiotic. If a virus kills its host it will eventually run out of hosts.

The reason why this one was slightly more dangerous that the other corona viruses we live with daily, is that it was novel.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I’m not aware of any western nation that particularly tried the approach. Europe insisted Schengen borders remain open. Our Government decided flattening the curve was the best approach not going for zero covid. I suspect when we crunch the numbers that will be reflected on as a mistake.

On schools the situation is different and I suspect from about 2pm today will differ further. Boris only yesterday insisted they were safe. While you describe this as “minor differences in policy” a policy option that could reduce R by 0.7 delayed by days/weeks or ignored altogether has significant impacts on hospitalisations and deaths.

If Boris, having seen the same advice, is going on TV saying the opposite and at the same time procrastinating for some Times hack to tweet out at 10pm next Sunday that they close from Monday then the question is why it took so long. The Sage advice followed from a meeting that took place on 17 December with the public version of the minutes published on 31 December. Ministers will have obviously seen it before that.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Dropped the kids off at school this morning, happy days.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That’s good, gives you a few extra days to prepare.

Re: Coronavirus
 

As as been mentioned many times New Zealand is a 1st world country (good healthcare, level of living) with a smallish population and is in the middle of nowhere.

So it could successfully lockdown for a short period, eliminate local infections and close off new entries. Most of the rest of the world has higher population densities and land borders or close marine borders that are breached.

We would have to arrange something with Eire to combined close our borders, sink incoming illegal boats or just tow them back to the mainland, somehow let food in without infections also getting in and so on. It would likely need to be longer than NZ had to get rid of local infections and we would have to stop rich city dwellers moving out to second homes and other movements within the country. It's not that it couldn't be done but it would be far harder and longer and may not be successful if once we stop it we reopen borders again.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Is there any evidence, anywhere, that folk crossing the Channel in dinghies contributed to bringing Covid-19 to the UK?

New Zealand have similar challenges importing goods and somehow manage it. The challenge is not insurmountable however we made the political choice to not drive down numbers and decide there was a tolerable level of infections we believed we could maintain and not overwhelm the NHS. Since then it's been antibody testing, rapid testing, operation moonshot and any other "wing and a prayer" options that were anything but the obvious.

Ireland presents a seperate problem yes, but that's a different island from Great Britain and in fact they aren't our problem - we are theirs. Unless we stopped traffic to/from Northern Ireland the land border means they can't pursue an option of elimination via lockdown.

It's a moot point as we are so close to vaccine however the success stories in terms of health and economic recovery will be the ones who pursued elimination. Not herd immunity by stealth - which lets be honest opening schools at all costs is. Let the kids infect their parents and hope it doesn't reach the grandparents.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Scotland to go in full lockdown from midnight.

https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/04/scotl...ight-13844739/

Re: Coronavirus
 

A day is a long time during the Pandemic.

From the First Minister's statement "We estimate that we are 4 weeks behind the position in London and the South of England." Piles the pressure on BoJo.



Czechia, Israel, UK and USA heading up new cases globally. Rest of world seems to have stabilised or shows far slower growth rate. .https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...074432/photo/1

Re: Coronavirus
 

Could this be to announce a national lockdown, which Sir Keir Starmer requested yesterday?

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-new...eaths-12178867

Re: Coronavirus
 

Wonder whether he directly contradicts what he said yesterday?

Those Civil Servants eh, whit are they like? Stitching him up every time.

Re: Coronavirus
 

oh goody, maybe I can be furloughed on 80% wages :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

Don't panic let's all get down to the shops and get the bog roll

Re: Coronavirus
 

It seems England and Scotland are very much in step with regards to their Coronavirus restrictions Andrew.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I’m not panic buying I’m just buying a couple of weeks supplies just in case. :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

You got the beer in?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Low on beer but plenty of rum to keep me warm. :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

I'd be willing to bet it wont be a national lockdown like last year. Building sites and manufacturing plants such as Nissan will stay open (the latter according to mates who work there, have people on the lines going down like flies' it's impossible to maintain social distancing.......)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Apparently from what l hear the Covid threat level is being moved up to level 5 which is the highest level as we had level 4 for the first lockdown.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Told ya so. ^^^

So Boris is due to address the nation at 8PM tonight to announce further restrictions.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Spot on.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Remainer civil servants I bet, extracting their revenge on the competent and honest Boris Johnson. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

So I work in a school and Boris is telling us to stay open but then he is telling London schools to close however we now nearly all in tier 4. Go figure that out!


I vote we close everything. Total lock down!

Re: Coronavirus
 

I suspect you may join the working-from-home brigade soon. Another BoJo u-turn is on the books.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well thats my mind up. Its a go for the purchase of a 6 month Morrisons delivery pass!
Bet Boris has bought his Ocado one already, before announcing the lockdown, which is insider trading really...

Re: Coronavirus
 

As a fan of Peanuts, I thought this was quite funny ;

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...chmentid=28821

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yup. ;)

He'll probably call it tier 6 for everywhere except the Scilly Isles so he doesn't have to call it a national lockdown!

Re: Coronavirus
 

Ive had a yearly pass for the last 6 years (from when they first introduced them) :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

Luckily l am on Sainsbury's vulnerable priority list so l get a delivery slot each week thankfully.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Sir Keir struggling to avoid falling off the fence on schools.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Prefer Sainsburys but Morrisons give Mrs K a 10% NHS discount. (excluding alcohol which is a damn shame ...)

Re: Coronavirus
 

They are all pretty good to be perfectly honest but Sainsbury's through information they received from the relevant authorities contacted me to say while coronavirus restrictions are in place l am on their priority list.

Re: Coronavirus
 

These announcements have a history of being overhyped and under whelming.

Let's hope he doesn't pander to the apocalypse worshippers.

Re: Coronavirus
 

They're different scales....

Re: Coronavirus
 

I've got a Blue Light Card, and you get 10% off wine/fizz and beer, just not spirits, at Morrisons in England.

https://my.morrisons.com/blue-light-...nd-conditions/

Re: Coronavirus
 

weren't so many teachers working from home first time around, unless you count emailing out a PDF every Friday for the next week, working.........................

Re: Coronavirus
 

It’s a done deal. Sir Keir eventually fell off the fence in favour of closing schools, and he wouldn’t have done that had he not been 100% certain of a u-turn. Heaven forbid he ended up having to spend the next week opposing Government policy.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Another u turn from him.

Only yesterday he wanted a return to the tier 4 lockdown of November. :rolleyes:

Re: Coronavirus
 

This isn't good news
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...rn-scientists/

Re: Coronavirus
 

He'll usually let Downing Street's press officers Laura K and Peter P break any bad news before he does. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

The problem is he’s trying to offer polite opposition rather than meaningful opposition, while always trying to appear “ahead” of the curve. Trying to pre-empt this Government is a farcical ask.

Only yesterday we had Pierre very confident schools wouldn’t close because they wouldn’t send them in to close them after a week. Now, dealing with a capable, competent Government that should generally hold up - they’d assess the data and have the courage of their convictions to see it through.

Unfortunately this isn’t what we have. We get reactionary change after reactionary change.

---------- Post added at 16:33 ---------- Previous post was at 16:32 ----------

The good news is you can still fly from South Africa to the UK (via a third country).

Re: Coronavirus
 

Quite a few had to attend school to look after the children of key workers, too.

---------- Post added at 16:42 ---------- Previous post was at 16:35 ----------

Sir Keir's invisible manifesto policy is doing the trick on polling so I doubt he'll change tack whilst this is the case. He did call for a national lockdown yesterday so he may have had over 24 hours' disagreement with the government!

Re: Coronavirus
 

Hong Kong: 9,000 cases since the start of the pandemic - schools online til 14 February.
Scotland: 9,000 cases in last 4 days - schools online to the end of January.

:doh:

---------- Post added at 16:46 ---------- Previous post was at 16:44 ----------

In fairness to him it’s the David Cameron playbook circa 2005. Folk laughed he stood for nothing and didn’t have any policies then too.

Re: Coronavirus
 

:sniper:

Missus would give you an absolute leathering if she saw this ...

Trust me, the workload was horrific. Even that Friday PDF was most likely compiled from material that was never intended for use as remote learning.

I spent two whole evenings separating massive PDFs into usable daily chunks for her one week, including cutting the answers to all the questions off the documents before they could be sent to the kids.

Re: Coronavirus
 

And vulnerable children, too...

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...onal-provision

Meanwhile, in Colchester...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-55531589

Re: Coronavirus
 

BREAKING: COVID-19 Threat Level has been raised to 5 it's highest level yet:
It is different and separate to the tiered system but the raised level indicates:

"We are at a “material risk of health services being overwhelmed."

Re: Coronavirus
 

IS IT ??

Re: Coronavirus
 

And this is why not having a plan for online/blended education to supplement face to face education has been flawed from the start. There were quick wins to be had around existing holidays which would have prevented the inevitable.

Councils could (should) have developed one to two week chunks of long standalone sections of each course, prepared centrally, allowing teachers to concentrate on the teaching part. Now there’s a reason for no contingency plan and it’s that central Government absolutely never countenanced the idea and threatened schools that didn’t open with legal action.

Re: Coronavirus
 

According to the FT the government have not ruled out closing schools until the mid-February half-term break.

https://www.ft.com/content/f1550dbb-...7-306ccfdaffca

Re: Coronavirus
 

A study found that during the Spanish Flu outbreak, a US city that kept schools open, fared no worse than another which kept them closed.
The kids aren't going to be cooped up at home are they? At the very least they will be traipsing around the shops, mixing with the rest of us that have to be in shops.
It's not a matter of where people are, but what they are doing wherever they are. Behave responsibly, and they will be no impact, whether you are down the street, at a holiday home in the country, or in New Zealand. Attend a party of 100 people, and that is possibly going to cause problems, wherever you are on the planet.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I wholeheartedly agree ... the SNP should have done much better. ;)

All kids in our high school have a chromebook now, with the intention to extend this to P7, although in our LA that hasn’t happened yet. The programme seems to have minimal central input though.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I apologise for the sweeping generalisation. I'm sure there was good and bad practice throughout the country. I am only calling on my experience, which I wouldn't describe as positive.

There was no personal contact (apart from the email) from the teacher for the eldest Y5.

and the youngest who was in reception - well they were just written off for the year - there was nothing, absolutely nothing in regards to any contact or work - we had to come up with our own.

If they do shut the schools I hope my lot have upped their game.

---------- Post added at 17:31 ---------- Previous post was at 17:26 ----------



I don't, fortunately....I don't even know anyone within extended friends and family that have had it.

2 work colleagues that had it in March are the only people I know personally that have had it.

Before anyone jumps on me, I'm obviously not denying it exists of course not. Just pointing out people have different experiences.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Same here, as I have noted a few times.
Even after 10 months now, I still dont personally know of anyone.
The closest Ive come is (still) a couple of people at my wifes school, who both recovered just fine.

(and yes, they were back at school today).

Re: Coronavirus
 

I know of more people who have survived Covid-19, myself included, than have died of it, I only know of one person who died but they did have other underlying health conditions.

---------- Post added at 17:51 ---------- Previous post was at 17:48 ----------

BREAKING: 26,000 are now believed to be in hospitals with Covid-19 - Prof Whitty is understood to have advised Prime Minister, the new variant is now in every part of the country. Source Laura Kuenssberg BBC.

This is it folks, we're heading for another national lockdown, with potentially more heavy sanctions for people who break the instructions.

---------- Post added at 18:09 ---------- Previous post was at 17:51 ----------

Latest from BBC's Laura Kuenssberg: This from the 4 Chief Medical Officers across UK- 'We are not confident that the NHS can handle a further sustained rise in cases and without further action there is a material risk of the NHS in several areas being overwhelmed over the next 21 days.'

---------- Post added at 18:22 ---------- Previous post was at 18:09 ----------

BREAKING: Scotland Police have arrested SNP MP Margaret Ferrier over alleged Coronavirus restriction breaches in September 2020.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...h-covid-rules/

Re: Coronavirus
 

Think that one shifted into the public interest. Although it's not an arrest for a breach of the Covid regulations as the previous view (from the Met?) was she had breached guidance but not regulations I think.

Re: Coronavirus
 

About time too. She was my local MSP and should have been charged when the incident happened.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Joint Statement from all four nations Chief Medical officers:

Re: Coronavirus
 

Suspect a resignation and a stern word from plod would have been enough at the time.

Re: Coronavirus
 

These are the guidlines for the new enhancement level four lockdown in Scotland from midnight to-night
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13...s-Scotland-evg

Re: Coronavirus
 

No communial worship, but 20 of you can go to church for a wedding. Makes sense.

Re: Coronavirus
 

You don’t get many January weddings in Scotland. It’s minus 3 outside not really kilt weather.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well not regimental. :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

So they would be inside instead, which is surely even worse ?

Re: Coronavirus
 

My point was that the number of weddings would be extremely small therefore it's deemed to be an acceptable risk for the few instances to which it applies. It will, for example, be more than offset by the closures of schools where dozens of gatherings of 20 or more happen every day in one secondary school.

The number of weekly services attended by 20 people would be far greater aggregating to possibly thousands (tens of?) of worshippers making it a far greater risk.

It's never been about one activity being inherently safer than another. Having a main meal doesn't make a pub that serves food safer, neither does an earlier shutting time. However if you put enough inconveniences in place eventually some people just don't bother.

---------- Post added at 20:07 ---------- Previous post was at 19:26 ----------

Schools move to blended learning from tomorrow.

Re: Coronavirus
 

New cough in town so it's back to square one:(

Re: Coronavirus
 

Boris, cowering to guess work instead of facts.

There is no data, that primary schools are a hotbed of infection.

Bellend.

Re: Coronavirus
 

There's no data that they're not either - both school age groups are now higher than average with the ONS data and growing. Closing both have the effect of reducing the all important R number.

The myth that schools are safe was just that - a myth - to keep them open to allow parents working from home to get on with working.

Unfortunately they could only pretend for so long.

I'm sympathetic to those who have to deal with their children at home, but at the same time the Government could and should have done more to inform people and scheduled these gaps rather than clung on by their fingernails until the very last day.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Not a philosophy I would live my life by.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Testing positive doesn't necessarily mean somebody will reach the stage of being infectious. That is the problem with testing of schoolkids. Although the question remains, where are the schoolkids picking it up from?

Vaccines and immunity would be pointless otherwise. There is a window of time(days) between reacquiring the virus and the immune system kicking into action again.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Nice selective quotation, Pierre.

And in actual fact in the pandemic it's a sensible precautionary action to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. The data will inevitably support schools bring the cause as infections drop in Tier 4 areas that have, to date, seen increases.

---------- Post added at 20:47 ---------- Previous post was at 20:44 ----------

Option A: Their parents who in turn caught it in non-essential retail.
Option B: Schools where there's no requirement to distance, no masks and poor ventilation. Plus cramming kids onto school buses to get there. :)

Now I'm no expert but one of those scenarios has all the reasons I'm not allowed to go into work.

Can only hope they are the answer, otherwise home schooling is going to go on a lot longer.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Age 2 to school year 6 children have the 3rd highest infection rate, after school year 7 to 11 and school year 12 to age 24.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...o-had-covid-19

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...2&d=1609793708

Re: Coronavirus
 

The original thinking on schools, was that they don't reach the stage of being able to infect anybody else. That might still be the case, but testing of schoolkids would highlight those "infected, but not infectious", creating a possible false alarm. Somebody can be immune, but still present with a positive test. The virus has to be present in the body for the immune system to deal with any subsequent reinfection.



People who have been previously breaking the rules, will still do so. People have have been gathering in large groups for weddings and funerals will still do so. Those gathering for "elite sports" such as dominoes, will still do so.

Re: Coronavirus
 

BuT tHeY cOuLd HaVe GoT iT fRoM tHeRe PaReNtS

My other favourite is the claim they will all meet up and hang about anyway. It's not the 1970s. Games consoles are in.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Thats a helluva assumption...

Re: Coronavirus
 

Hence use of the word "might".:rolleyes:

Re: Coronavirus
 

Been over that two days ago.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=2373

Re: Coronavirus
 

And as pointed out two days ago you quoted sources published in October, based on data from when schools were closed.

SAGE, and other Government advisors, will be using actual up to date data based on the experiences in schools. It's notable the only declines in prevalence among school age children are linked to the mid term break.

Let's be honest they've been trying to keep the schools open at all costs, in my view in error, so the question is why would they now close them if the evidence didn't support it?

Re: Coronavirus
 

. An actual fact!

I certainly hope so, it would be terrible if was unnecessarily done. But at least you acknowledge the data doesn’t support it yet.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Gotta love those graphs/charts :D

Apparently they show I live in an area where I have 1% chance of testing positive for covid-19, and I'm also in the age group that has a 1% chance of testing positive for covid-19. . . does that mean my chances are now 1% of 1%? ;)

I'd say that calls for (yet) another large Brandy :Yes:

Re: Coronavirus
 

Far from it Pierre, for the avoidance of doubt I'm saying the data will be so clear that even you cannot ignore it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co....impact-3079917



---------- Post added at 21:20 ---------- Previous post was at 21:19 ----------

Treat yourself - have a large Cognac... :)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Good job Nurseries will be closed as well then. ;)


... oh wait ... they wont .... :erm:

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well ... they might ... school nurseries can be treated like the rest of the school so may be closed anyway.

Re: Coronavirus
 

You have seen the rules i take it ?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Which data?

Re: Coronavirus
 

As a key worker in the food sector, we should be buying that brandy for you. :)

But unfortunately the pubs are closed. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Ask JFMan

---------- Post added at 23:40 ---------- Previous post was at 23:37 ----------

I’ll have to see if I can get them in school through the critical worker route.

I’ve asked work to see if I qualify, and for a covering letter.

Re: Coronavirus
 

We'll just have to wait and see.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think she was referring to the articles you linked from October that painted a rosy picture of impacts of children because it was based on when they were largely in lockdown.

Hugh has linked a couple of times now to data showing children are the most likely age groups to have the virus (from ONS prevalence studies).

Minutes from Sage meeting of 17 December (published on Gov.uk website on 31 December) make it clear that a school age children are the most likely to bring the virus into a household - seven times more likely in the case of secondary school age.

There's tons of it out there. Germany closed their schools on 14 December before Christmas as a result of the role of school transmission and I don't accept "cultural differences" as a reason why British exceptionalism should apply.

I do wish you luck with it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I posted about that strain on on New Year's Eve, it's why they're trying to get as many people some sort of vaccination as possible

Does anyone know why if you live with someone who has a test you isolate for 10 days and if they develop symptoms the 10 days are restarted but if a different person you live with develops symptoms the 10 days aren't restarted? Might seem like a silly query but I'm about to walk out if a colleague returns and I've not had it answered sufficiently!!!