Re: Brexit
 

Think that's a fair bet considering she's meeting with the 1922 exec tomorrow.

Re: Brexit
 

Yea i think delayed is correct.

https://news.sky.com/story/governmen...uture-11726821

Re: Brexit
 

I see the thread title is promoting a particular party now. Subtle as a sledge hammer.

Not that they need much help, with a whopping great arrow pointing to the box where you can mark your X on the ballot paper..

Re: Brexit
 

How?:shrug:

Re: Brexit
 

It's been called Brexit for ages.....

Re: Brexit
 

Just been there, keep up! No obsession here, just keeping you honest :)

Re: Brexit
 

You came back too early,your all wound up again.

Re: Brexit
 

I disagree. I'm fully entitled to express my views due to something called free speech.

Anyway, you wouldn't want everyone to agree with you, that would be boring :)

Re: Brexit
 

Brexit Party ATTACK: Pensioner covered in milkshake by YOB outside polling station


https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11...shot-hampshire

Re: Brexit
 

Quite the opposite, I am chilled. You are the one that seems to be upset.

Re: Brexit
 

Maybe her tripped and fell into the milkshake ?

In all seriousness, ridiculous behavior that cannot be defended.

I don't see why the fact he served in the forces needs to come into it though.

Re: Brexit
 

Its absolutely pathetic but of course it will continue sadly unabated as there does not seem to be a zero tolerance attitude from the authorities and a strong deterrent towards this type of unacceptable behaviour.

Re: Brexit
 

Seriously, you're not running with this now are you? :dozey:

As Damien said above - this thread has been called Brexit for ages.

The Image would have been run by the Electoral Commission. That's why Change UK don't have one because the one they wanted, they were not allowed to have. In either case, if you have voted, and you know who to vote for, you know where to stick your X for goodness sake.

---------- Post added at 15:05 ---------- Previous post was at 14:54 ----------

And such entitlement can be revoked :p: - Free speech is mentioned in our sites terms of use, feel free to go look it up. :)

Yes, it would be boring if we all agreed with each other but I won't have you having a go at others and accuse them of lying when you also keep posting misinformation or saying something as fact, when it is not a fact at all.

Re: Brexit
 

It is not the Brexit I take issue with it is the Vote just in front of it.

Poll would be more appropriate.

Re: Brexit
 

Change UK should've been forced to change its name, as actually it stands for everything NOT changing.


Pity we have to wait a few days for the results.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Ha, I hadn't even noticed that.

Re: Brexit
 

More incompetent voting chaos.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a4149581.html

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-admin-errors

Re: Brexit
 

I feel compelled to point out that negotiations on a trade deal haven't actually commenced yet.

Only Parliament have been difficult with the withdrawal agreement, although not without cause as far as the backstop is concerned.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

This has happened before, it's absurd. :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit
 

Exactly as they all have a right to vote for whoever they are going to vote for and for this to happen again is inexcusable.

Re: Brexit
 

It's not as if a persons vote counts for anything anymore,others will just try to over rule the outcome.

Re: Brexit
 

That's local councils for you Den.

No brain cells required to get elected to run them. :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit
 

Neither had I, it's a thread prefix, it's not in the main title of the thread and it's only there because there was a poll, which I have now deleted and as if by magic....

Re: Brexit
 

The whole vote will have to be rerun [if the brexit party do well] your unwitting intervention may have broken the election rules ........................................;)

Re: Brexit
 

This is a reasonable suggestion and thus, have now implemented the change..

New Poll being added to this thread Imminently....

Re: Brexit
 

Voted, here and in real life, for the Brexit Party.

On a side note, the stupid De Hondt system operates a closed list so it’s impossible to express a preference for a particular candidate within one’s chosen party. Individuals are appointed from the top of the list downwards. Given that the whole point of PR is that it’s meant to be more democratic, it’s odd that this particular version of it actually gives more power to party managers at the expense of voters.

Re: Brexit
 

First time i’ve ever voted in EU elections, I noticed that, there were 6 names next to the party I voted for.

Re: Brexit
 

Where am I "having a go" and accusing someone of lying?

I am not quite sure what you are threatening me with here. I describe things as I see them. I am quite happy to debate the rationale behind my position.

Re: Brexit
 

When they decide how many seats each party gets, they are allocated to the names on the list from the top down. The names are there for information only as you can’t express a preference for one of them.

There is a version of De Hondt that operates an open list, so you can influence the order in which party candidates get a seat. It’s more democratic and potentially improves the connection between candidates and voters, but it makes the counting process doubly complicated.

Re: Brexit
 

It's annoying. Holland has Exit polls and we don't!

Re: Brexit
 

I thought nothing was allowed that could influence the vote in other countries that don't vote up until Sunday.

Re: Brexit
 

I went and voted today at about 6pm, I asked how turn out had been, and he told me that only 66 had turned up to vote out of 1,200 registered voters.

Re: Brexit
 

Exit polls cost a fortune. They only happen when enough people give a toss for it to be worth Sky, the BBC and ITV’s while to club together.

I suspect Prof. Curtice will have done some number crunching off his own bat anyway. We may get some data over the next 24 hours.

Re: Brexit
 

Clearly not if the Netherlands have Exit polls being reported on before elections closed here (social democrats seem to have done well).

---------- Post added at 22:16 ---------- Previous post was at 22:11 ----------

Given the interest in these elections and the ongoing drama of Brexit, the Conservative Party and general basket case of politics at the moment you would think they would have commissioned Exit polls for this election.

My assumption was that something about UK law means we do not report until polls close everywhere...

Re: Brexit
 

The Scottish independence referendum didn’t get one. IIRC the EU one didn’t either. I think we only get them for general elections in the UK.

Re: Brexit
 

Referendums are harder to poll as they don't have a baseline from which to measure change. If there was another referendum (in either case, but Scotland might have to be quite soon) then they may have one because of the amount of data they have from the last referendum. They can then set up in demographically relevant areas to attempt to judge any change in mood.

In 2016 they could have had a 39 year old white male in Oldham saying he voted Remain but what good does that do them? However if they knew what this demographic did in this area in a prior referendum then a picture starts to be built.

---------- Post added at 22:43 ---------- Previous post was at 22:34 ----------

Pollsters probably hate referendums and popular votes anyway because of the binary nature of the result. You may only be 2% out but that's the difference between Remain or Leave and suddenly you look like an idiot. Wheres if you said it would be 56-44 and it was actually 58-42 then it looks like you got it almost spot in.

Re: Brexit
 

I actually made 2 votes, my own by post and as proxy for my brother in the polling station.

Re: Brexit
 

Hopefully, they would have cancelled each other out! :D

Re: Brexit
 

I wonder how many votes Russia had lol

Re: Brexit
 

It's Labour supporters(or a particular group within that) that tend to have a couple of dozen voters per one-bedroom flat.

Re: Brexit
 

I'm sure Mr Kremlin can clarify that! :D

Re: Brexit
 

Theresa May announces her Departure date as 7th June..

Re: Brexit
 

Friday 7th June.

Re: Brexit
 

Good. Then we can start work on the hard Brexit that is necessary to get us out of the EU.

Re: Brexit
 

Which IMO isn't going to happen..... The only way we will perform a hard brexit is if the EU decide they have had enough. It won't be instigated by HM government.

Re: Brexit
 

Straight onto a large ex-PM's pension... :mad:

Re: Brexit
 

Don't really see the problem with that. It's not like she has been corrupt or anything.

Re: Brexit
 

It could, but it would have to be following a general election with Tories winning with a thumping majority and all MPs voting with the whip.

So not anytime soon.

Re: Brexit
 

and the way they hand out extensions faster than a doctor prescribing tablets means they're happy with the current status of events

Re: Brexit
 

Or, if the Brexit party expected euro results were to transfer to a GE.

---------- Post added at 11:58 ---------- Previous post was at 11:58 ----------

Not really, considering Macrons take on things in the last request for an extension.

Re: Brexit
 

It's still possible
BREXIT NO DEAL:Hardline new PM could FORCE THROUGH Brexit and MPs would have to suck it up

“A motion opposing a no-deal Brexit would obviously have political power but it would not be legally binding.

“If push comes to shove and you had a prime minister who was prepared to go for no-deal and take the consequences then it is not obvious to see a clear route by which parliament could prevent it.”

The Institute said a new prime minister would be under no obligation to rule out no deal Brexit
https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...prime-minister

Re: Brexit
 

I thought Brexit was Brexit? Didn't think there was such things as hard or soft Brexit, as far as I remember that's what we kept getting told on here anyway.

Re: Brexit
 

Think that's not really news, it's been that way from day one. Issue is what happens to the PM in that situation? No confidence motion and out. Or mass resignation of MPs so no majority for anything else. No easy way on this I'm afraid.

Re: Brexit
 

Once we are out the PM might be happy to return to the back benches , then they can be offered another frontbench job by their mates.

Re: Brexit
 

I used that terminology because it's the only language aggressive remainers understand.

Re: Brexit
 

I don't see any of the current candidates interested in a temp PM position.

Re: Brexit
 

Opposed to what, aggressive leavers? It's pretty simple to understand. Some people want to leave, some want to stay. Some want no deal, others want a deal. I'm not sure why people have to make an agenda out of it.

Re: Brexit
 

I was referring to those remainers who refuse to accept the referendum result and are trying to muddy the waters with their picture of a multi-faceted Brexit that we know as the Brino options.

There is only one Brexit. It means we leave. The remainers I referred to call this a hard Brexit, but in truth, it is just Brexit.

The withdrawal agreement is dead and there are no viable options to replace it. Therefore we leave without a deal and we invoke GATT Article 24 to provide us with a period of protection until we get a trade deal.

This is the only way we can respect the referendum result.

Re: Brexit
 

Even after no deal the same questions about what happens with our relationship with the EU remains

Re: Brexit
 

You believe there is only one Brexit. Other people believe Brexit means other things. Leaving with a deal was still Brexit, just not the Brexit you wanted. I don't believe anyone in here refuses to accept the referendum result, they just have a different opinion to you.

Re: Brexit
 

That will be determined by the EU/UK trade deal.

Re: Brexit
 

Agreed. Very peculiar.

---------- Post added at 13:43 ---------- Previous post was at 13:41 ----------

Which could include the customs union and single market or something g very similar.

Re: Brexit
 

I don't think it is as simple as that. At present despite 3yrs of negotiation no deal has been placed on the table to be agreed. All we have had is a flawed withdrawal agreement proposed which has the potential to keep us in the EU indefinitely. Parliament has rejected that.

Thanks to lily livered remain MP's the EU has been given the confidence to refuse to change the terms of the WA.

A PM who is willing to force through a no deal exit would not be advocating not having a deal with the EU just that EU intransigence on the withdrawal agreement meant leave first and then negotiate a deal.

Faced with someone willing to walk away without a deal alters the whole dynamics of negotiations.

Re: Brexit
 

Well exactly but there will be concessions to the EU on that trade deal at which point people will shout betrayal.

Re: Brexit
 

Those who think a new leader will be the great panacea to cure everything are sadly going to be very disappointed.

Re: Brexit
 

So Pip, well known we are poles apart on many different viewpoints but I'd like you to answer honestly.

1) Do you not realistically think that the EU has had the position of confidence since the start? If not, why not?

2) Do you think that a no deal scenario whilst achieving one form of Brexit is in fact nothing more than a race to the bottom, with the EU better placed to be able to absorb and manage the implications of a no deal exit better than the UK ? If not, why not?

3) If the UK could force a no deal exit, How do you think the EU would factor this into subsequent trade negotiations?

4) What does the UK provide or manufacture that is of such vital importance to the EU that allow us to hold an upper hand in trade negotiations?

Re: Brexit
 

Yeah, you might need to check out this on how we can invoke Article XXIV - https://fullfact.org/europe/article-24/

Re: Brexit
 

Trouble has always been, lack of clarity and openness about what the WA was trying to achieve. Keeping everything so close to her chest is why people are bleating about the WA.

Had she shared this negotiation and genuinely compromised from the start, we would probably have left on 29th March.

Re: Brexit
 

I don’t think anyone in their right mind thinks that

Re: Brexit
 

Boris is marking out his leadership territory:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/...18251234136066

Re: Brexit
 

Not surprising. Varadkar has been on the airwaves this morning. He sounds a bit nervous.

Re: Brexit
 

Yep. Same problem of a Parliament that won’t allow no deal but won’t vote for a deal.

Re: Brexit
 

We may not have Exit Polls but we do have turnout numbers and, surprisingly, it's not been a blockbuster turnout. In fact it's only marginally higher than the last time: https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/stat...32062716448768

Re: Brexit
 

Why on Earth would Boris want that?

Re: Brexit
 

Boris will take anything that keeps him in the top job.

Re: Brexit
 

We will be in a much better position to negotiate with that dreadful lot when outside the EU. I can be very clear that Boris will not agree to have us in a customs union because he wants to sign up to trade deals with other countries.

---------- Post added at 17:44 ---------- Previous post was at 17:42 ----------

No, they won't, Den. Boris will get the support of the ERG and the DUP, giving him the ability to get a majority to leave the EU.

Re: Brexit
 

The fact it's Boris flogging a dead horse doesn't change the reality the horse is dead. Parliament doesn't want this deal and Parliament doesn't want no deal.

Re: Brexit
 

I've seen all that nonsense, but this is put forward by people who don't want to see Britain leave. Look, Article 24 exists, and all that is required is a joint statement of intent about what the EU and the UK wants to achieve from a trade agreement.

Even if there were an objection raised by another country, it would take 2 years at least to go through the legal process, by when we should have a trade agreement.

Re: Brexit
 

Who says Boris will be elected leader as l always find its usually the candidate that unites the Conservative party that ends up being the leader of the party.

Re: Brexit
 

Wrong. It's the Withdrawal Agreement that is dead. You won't be hearing much about that now, or the dreaded backstop. We can be confident of leaving now on 31 October.

---------- Post added at 17:58 ---------- Previous post was at 17:57 ----------

He's the favourite so far, by a big margin.

Re: Brexit
 

No - we can't. Parliament has clearly legislated in the past to avoid No Deal. It can, and will, do so again. Up to and including a vote of no confidence in the Government when the time is right, if required.

The dynamics against Theresa May will work against Johnson, Gove, Hunt or anyone else. Only a General Election can change this.

Leaving on 31 October is the new leaving on 31 March.

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-...place-11727890

The people want a General Election!

Re: Brexit
 

You are wrong again. Theresa May lost the confidence of the ERG and DUP. Boris can get it back.

Anyway, if he can get confirmation that Article 24 of GATT can apply with an agreement between the UK and EU on the objectives to finalise a trade deal, suddenly 'no deal' is very attractive. Protection will provide peace of mind on our trading arrangements in the meantime, which will satisfy the renegade Conservatives, who will be chastened by the result of the EU elections.

Re: Brexit
 

You are wrong. The problem isn't Theresa May - it's the policy. The ideologues in the ERG an DUP will continue to push for no deal, Parliament will continue to oppose.

Re: Brexit
 

No, no, no! Employing the GATT legislation to enable the protection period is exactly what ERG members want, and the DUP will come on board without the backstop being part of the arrangement. All is good. At last.

Re: Brexit
 

So where others favourite but they got beaten in previous leadership contests...

Re: Brexit
 

You mean people like;


House of Commons Researchers - https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...-24-explained/
Chap who worked 18 years for the WTO - https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/...interim-deals/
Columnist for Bloomberg and former WSJ editor - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...rade-deal-myth
Lecturer in International Law and a former Australian Trade Negoiator - https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUKKCN1PH24V
Professors in International Law and Kings College and Cambridge - https://ukandeu.ac.uk/clean-brexit-s...-doesnt-exist/


Even if we do trade with the EU under Article XXIV, that only covers goods and not services.


If we just winged it, relying on the slowness of the WTO to enforce, then we are breaking a global trade agreement at a time when we are supposed to be making deals with all of these countries. Not a good look to be seen breaking deals while trying to broker new ones. Doesn't make you look very trustworthy...

Re: Brexit
 

It only applies if agreement is reached to continue whilst negotiations go ahead.

What on earth do people thing May's WA was trying to do, of not just this?

Re: Brexit
 

Probably not a real comparison because I believe local elections took place on the same day in 2014. The local elections would have been the reason many of those got off their backsides to vote.

Re: Brexit
 

I know it covers only goods. It's the goods that are the problem.

Re: Brexit
 

Well, May didn’t have the gumption to follow up on her threats. Any new PM would be wise to learn from that or suffer the same fate.

Parliament doesn’t want a no deal, that has been proven. What has also been proven is that Parliament is impotent.

Parliament doesn’t get to decide, it won against May as she was spineless. But the current date is 31/10. Boris or whoever it is, has to show the spine the last PM didn’t and make a statement that is clear. That unless an acceptable deal can be achieved by the 31st we will leave with no deal. No if’s no but’s, no more extensions. Regardless of what Parliament wants.

If you want you PM tenure to be remembered, be remembered as the PM that fought against a Parliament that tried to subvert the will of the people and took us out of the EU and delivered on thevReferendum.

Be remembered for something, not like May, she will be remembered for abject failure.

Re: Brexit
 

May's withdrawal agreement was only transitional in nature. It was a stopgap.

The deal we need to negotiate, from outside the EU, is a trade agreement.

Re: Brexit
 

No it didn’t,

There was an indicative vote, that’s all. No legislation whatsoever.

And May was too spineless to ignore it. Any future PM would be wise to learn from that.

Re: Brexit
 

An absolute fantasy. If it was that easy why haven’t we done it? Theresa would still be PM with her feet up and polling numbers in the 40s.

---------- Post added at 19:58 ---------- Previous post was at 19:55 ----------

Semantics. The extension in itself was legislation.

Re: Brexit
 

That is for Theresa May to answer. I suspect it was because she was aiming at a 'compromise', which in the end satisfied nobody.

Re: Brexit
 

The far more likely answer is it’s not possible. I’d put no deal at all as more likely than that. I don’t rate that as very likely either.

Re: Brexit
 

It’s not, in so far as if the PM refuses to bend to parliament, there is nothing Parliament can do to prevent us leaving.

Brexit has failed so far for one reason and one reason only. May didn’t have the spine to carry it through.

Re: Brexit
 

So if we have a general election at some point would Farage and his cohorts come to power. Yikes. Sh** and Fan come to mind.

Re: Brexit
 

The statutory instrument to amend the withdraw act is legislation. Semantics as I said. Boris, or whoever, still has to solve the Parliamentary arithmetic.