Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

No major surprise here, there's lots of work to do.

Brexit: Philip Hammond warns deal 'will take years'

Chancellor Philip Hammond has warned the process of exiting the EU is likely to last long beyond the two-year time frame stipulated by law.
He said the UK's exit was not just about negotiating a free trade deal, and could involve talks on migration policy and interim arrangements.
"There will be many transitions involved… these will take many years."
The government has said it will trigger Article 50 - the formal process of leaving the EU - by the end of March. After that, it will officially have two years to complete the process.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Hammond said the government was still on track to meet this "rigid timeframe", adding that by the end of March 2019 he expected to "at least" have agreement on the "broad principles of the end state that will exist".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38688786

---------- Post added at 11:40 ---------- Previous post was at 11:21 ----------

I don't think his Brexit scenario is likely but we do know that people will get squeezed financially this year as the weaker currency pushes up prices. It will be interesting to gauge Brexit support when the penny follows the pound and drops.

George Soros: Donald Trump 'will fail' and Theresa May's Brexit could 'last three days'

“In my opinion, it is unlikely that Prime Minister May is actually going to remain in power. Already she has a very divided cabinet, a very small majority in Parliament. And I think she will not last,” said Mr Soros, who was nicknamed The Man Who Broke the Bank of England because of his $10bn (£8.1bn) short sale of sterling in 1992.
“At the moment the people in the UK are in denial.
"The current economic situation is not as bad as was predicted and they live in hope. But as the currency depreciates, and inflation will be the driving force, this will lead to declining living standards.
“This is going to take some time, but when it does happen they’ll realise that they are earning less than before because wages won’t rise as fast as the cost of living.
“The divorce is going to take a very long time. It’s much harder to divorce than to get married, so I think the desire for rapprochement will develop, and in theory or maybe even in practice you could have a situation in 2019 or 2020 when Britain will leave the EU, because it does have to take place, but they could leave on a Friday but join over the weekend and have the new arrangement in place on Monday morning.”

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

A nice bit of reality to those who think things can be done quickly..

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I don't care how long it takes (within reason), I just wish we'd get on with it! :(

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

If one is doing something we must do it properly as a rushed botched job is often a job one has to go back to..

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

For me, that simply illustrates one of the fallacies at the heart of the remain argument, which was that the EU was still a union of sovereign states and it was false to claim British sovereignty was being impinged.

In matters of international law there is a difference between de jure and de facto. The former is the technical, legally correct position. The latter is what, practically, exists on the ground. They may not be the same, and reconciling the two may be difficult or impossible to achieve.

The UK is de jure an independent sovereign nation state, however the tangled web of treaties that form the EU have for some years meant that that the de facto situation is quite different. Our "sovereign" parliament has bound itself and its successors in so many different ways that it beggars belief.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

If you follow this argument, does the UK's membership of NATO means it's not a sovereign state? (I'm not stating that your argument is wrong, though.)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Treaties do not de jure make a state non-sovereign. An individual treaty may be signed and then binned as required, and would not create a de facto end to a state's sovereignty. What has concerned me is the point at which that changes: at what point our membership of an organisation based on multiple complex treaties, some of which grant legislative competence and judicial oversight to supra-national bodies, means that whatever the strict legal definition of sovereignty may be, the practical exercise of it is fundamentally impinged.

Personally, I think Maastricht set us on that trajectory and only our exemptions from the single currency and the Schengen zone have allowed us this opportunity to back out of the project, difficult though it may be.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I've been lucky enough to avoid it, so far, but statistically it will happen at some point...

Thanks & you too

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Positve news although the devil's in the detail

Schäuble says post-Brexit trade deal with UK can be done quickly
Germany’s finance minister has signalled a willingness to reach a quick deal on trade with Britain, giving hope to the UK government that Brexit negotiations with the EU can be constructive and successful.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum on Friday, Wolfgang Schäuble held out the olive branch but also stuck to his view that leaving the EU would damage the British economy, adding that threats to turn the UK into a version of Singapore with low taxes was beneath a great nation.
Subscriber link https://www.ft.com/content/d2fa5938-...c-f253db7791c6 or Google the headline

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Supreme Court rules against Government. Article 50 invocation has to be done by Parliament.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

8-3 ruling for the above.

The UK Government will be pleased by the unanimous ruling that the governments of NI, Wales and Scotland do not need to be asked as EU relations are a matter for the UK Government.
http://news.sky.com/story/live-pm-mu...rexit-10740738

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Now we'll see if the remoaners in parliament try to thwart the will of the people and force an EU lite deal on us. :(

---------- Post added at 09:55 ---------- Previous post was at 09:53 ----------

That'll put Sturgeon's nose out of joint. A few less stumbling blocks at least. :)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

I see another pointless person by the name of farron is DEMANDING things....

Go do one you waste of space, you have no power or authority.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

The SNP are probably the biggest losers today followed by the more extreme Brexiters who favour a more dictatorial approach to Article 50. Theresa May won't be too unhappy today.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

This changes nothing.

It just means that the government have to produce a bill to trigger Article 50.

There has already been a vote parliament a few weeks ago where it was agreed that MPs will not vote against triggering of Article 50.

So as long as the MPs do not go back on that vote then Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March as planned.