Cable Forum - Brexit discussion

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Re: Brexit discussion

Lets go for the cliff-edge then? clearly the EU just wants money, It's all they ever talk about.

I don't think we will get any sort of deal from them, once the money is handed over they'll not move on with talks regarding trade they'll ask us to look the other way while they run.

Germany wants to Rule the EU I say let them it won't be off our backs. I reckon once we do finally go the rest will follow they are just sitting back and watching what happens. We are the first test case these are always harder.

If anything this has shown we are not welcome in their little club lets face it as it was said "the english language is a dying language around here"

I think they'll find it harder the UK not being around and they are making it as difficult as possible to leave.

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gavin78 (Post 35920304)

Lets go for the cliff-edge then? clearly the EU just wants money, It's all they ever talk about.

Quote:

Germany wants to Rule the EU I say let them it won't be off our backs

What evidence is there for this? Did Germany propose dissolving the European Council when we didn't notice?

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35920300)

On the other hand, there is no mandate for a cliff-edge Brexit.

If you feel that there is a majority in favour of a cliff-edge Brexit with the additional costs and job losses that it will cause, why not ask the public with a referendum on this very point?

Yes, the Britsih electorate have spoken. But they didn't say what you think they may have said.

This what you get with a yes or no question in a referendum..no allowances for nuances and no precise underlining of what the issues are..or the pitfalls.

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35920310)

4 out of 41 position papers published by the EU are directly financial and only one that I can see is about the financial settlement, the other are around procurement. Have a gander here https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brex...s_tid_i18n=351

What evidence is there for this? Did Germany propose dissolving the European Council when we didn't notice?

Spot on. Spouting something so controversial without evidence is pointless.
Until recently the great hope was a trade deal with the US. Now that the reality of the US's approach to trade has become apparent I've seen nothing else to go on bar a wing and a prayer.

Re: Brexit discussion

This was only ever going to end one way.

Quote:

Theresa May is backing away from a Brussels showdown over Brexit this week after Angela Merkel warned her that the EU would not start discussing a transition deal with Britain until she put more money on the table.
Mrs May, who held talks with Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president, in Brussels on Monday night, has decided not to increase her €20bn offer to the EU ahead of a European Council meeting starting on Thursday.
Instead the scene is set for a haggle over money before the next EU summit in December. “There will probably have to be a crisis in November,” said one senior British official.

https://www.ft.com/content/8f331a3a-...8-73d59db9e399

---------- Post added at 23:34 ---------- Previous post was at 21:55 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35920253)

It's getting really tiresome that, the moment someone expresses an opinion against Brexit, it's 'biased'.

Totally agree. The FT had a great article today about this situation today.

Quote:

As the bleakness of Britain’s Brexit dilemma becomes more apparent, so the search for scapegoats has begun. The Brexiters’ favourite target remains the EU itself. But the Leave campaign is now also rounding on the enemy within: the British people and institutions they accuse of undermining Brexit...
The list of British institutions where the Leavers sniff treason is long and growing. They include the BBC, the civil service, the City of London, leading universities and top lawyers as well as The Economist and the Financial Times. Yet the Brexiters’ search for “saboteurs” is dangerous to their own cause. It gives off a whiff of desperation and defeat, undermining the comforting fantasy that Britain is a united country, confidently pursuing Brexit.
The saboteur hunt places the Leavers in the paradoxical situation of being arch-patriots who appear to distrust, and even detest, many of Britain’s most respected institutions. As a result, they risk turning into precisely what they accuse Remainers of being: “People who hate their own country.”

https://www.ft.com/content/524ae104-...8-73d59db9e399

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gavin78 (Post 35920304)

I'm afraid the EU seem to have shown more solidarity among 27 nations than the 27 members of our cabinet have. The evidence that the EU is imploding based on Brexit is sparse.

What exactly do you think will happen if we leave right now? As you're in favour of it you must have a good idea of the consequences. What are you expecting to happen?

Regarding what the EU wants they set 3 requirements to progress, our politicians agreed with them then have reneged.

If you think the UK leaving the EU in a disorganised way would inspire other states to leave you're likely to be disappointed. A number of them are far more tightly integrated than we are, only those on the very periphery are less integrated and many of them are even more reliant than we are on the Single Market.

---------- Post added at 10:15 ---------- Previous post was at 10:12 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matth (Post 35920299)

The only thing that is certain, is that we know more what we don't want from brexit than what we do.

Staying within the single market is impossible, as that is tied to freedom of movement.
Staying within the customs union is impossible, as that would tie our hands in dealmaking.
Paying a fortune in settlement or subscription is unacceptable

We know what some don't want at least. As far as the entire country goes your guess is good as mine what the population as a whole want.

Based on polling it seems like a substantial minority of people are happy to be poorer in return for ditching all of the above, however I very much doubt the entire population would go along with that.

Either way all we have is what polls say. If we're honest no-one really has any idea what the UK wants right now, from the cabinet downwards. When that ridiculous referendum was thrown together no-one actually bothered to consider what we were voting for beyond leave or remain, and no-one actually even bothered to make the thing legally binding.

---------- Post added at 10:17 ---------- Previous post was at 10:15 ----------

If you're a pensioner congratulations: your triple-lock means, again, you get to avoid some of the consequences of your likely vote to leave.

if you're of working age your pay almost certainly isn't keeping pace with this, and if you're on welfare that's not a state pension you've no chance.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2017/10/14.jpg

Re: Brexit discussion

Thank god for National Savings Index linked Bonds; best purchase ever; unless UK plc goes bust of course......

Re: Brexit discussion

Two recent news items sum up the choice we face:

1. Continue along the Brexit route and continue to face increasing inflation and low growth.
UK inflation hits five-year high of 3% as food prices rise

2. Cancel Brexit and reap the benefits in terms of more jobs and taxes to pay for public services like the NHS.
Brexit reversal would boost UK growth

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35920459)

Well the second one won't happen Andrew l can assure you of that.

Re: Brexit discussion

Yes staying within the EU would be a veritable panacea - no inflation, no unemployment, no political turmoil. no Greek debt crisis, no Italian bank problems, no migration crisis, no right wing swing. Yes I can see how some people might see that as a safe option especially when they know, because Juncker has told everyone, that every member state will have to use the Euro with all that entails and the extra difficulties that would present to any state which decided to leave for whatever reason.

Yes I really can see what a safe, comforting and rosy prospect all that is... :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35920459)

Sigh. Looks like some are still trying spread BS to scupper Brexit. :rolleyes:

Brexit is happening as it should. You cannot hold a democratic process, tell the people, the government will act on what is decided and then over a year later, don’t do it because some don’t like the decision that was voted for.

Re: Brexit discussion

A Paris based think tank. I can see that as totally un-biased.

Re: Brexit discussion

Quelle surprise. Once again no real account taken of any longer term risks of being trapped within the EU straight jacket and increasingly finding the rules changed to our disadvantage and to prevent any realistic prospect of ever leaving. No risk of that at all. We all know the EU is on a path to certain glory, the Eurcrats and their cronies have told us so... :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35920470)

A Paris based think tank. I can see that as totally un-biased.

It isn't really a think-tank as such and it's a international organisation whose members include Europe, North America, Australia and parts of Asia. It's closer to something like NATO in structure, if not remit, rather than a think-tank.

And yes their HQ is in Paris. Hardly a cutting point. There are plenty of better arguments against their report than where their HQ is.

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35920462)

Well the second one won't happen Andrew l can assure you of that.

The obvious deduction from the two news items is that the closer the deal with the EU, the more prosperous the country will be.

---------- Post added at 18:09 ---------- Previous post was at 18:07 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35920472)

Countries in the EU do get the right of veto and we've had plenty of opt-outs. Outside the EU and selling into the EU, countries have to abide by the EU's rules but can't influence them.

---------- Post added at 18:11 ---------- Previous post was at 18:09 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35920469)

Economic reality I'm afraid.