Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Please don't tell me what I believe - especially as I have repeatedly said something different and it's all here in black and white for everyone to see.

I never said advertsers aren't interested and I never said Netflix want to do it right now.

I said, the financial benefit from advertising, and the pool of advertisers willing to pay for space on a platform with such limited reach, is such that Netflix may believe there is more to be gained from making a virtue out of not carrying adverts.

There is no doubt that saying they are ad-free has commercial value - the statements made by some big VOD fans in this thread prove that. At this point in time, I argue, that value is greater than the limited extra revenue available from advertising. Therefore Netflix *don't* want to run adverts right now. They calculate that they are better off not doing it. And in business, that calculation is ultimately all that matters.

In time, that calculation will change. And it will change a *long* time before anyone in a position of influence even suggests ending linear TV broadcasts in the UK.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

What companies say and what they do often have little or no link to each other.
Back in the 90s, Microsoft were publically saying that the future of the internet was their own MSN Network rather than the web, while secretly developing Internet Explorer.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Indeed, once Netflix gets big enough they'll do what they want to do. Take advantage of how things are now instead of worrying what they might do in the future, they will always do what is best for them.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

They probably will. That is fine for me though, I get much more choice on there than I do Netflix. I appreciate I have to wait a little while to get it, but that's fine by me!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I agree that they might take some advertising, but not in a way that prevents you from starting to watch your show. However, one ad just before the show would just about be acceptable, I think.

However, Netflix have said they are not going to do it, and although they may change their minds over time, I don't think anyone should assume that it is inevitable.

As far as prices are concerned, yes, I think there is a limit on how far they should increase their charges. £5.99 per month is pretty reasonable, but the amount by which they are going up now is a bit alarming.

To avoid losing subscribers, I think they should leave the base subscription where it is and have more expensive packages that enable you to see additional material. I think that would work.

The difference between Netflix US and Netflix UK is massive and I can understand why charges need to go up if we are to get a similar service.

---------- Post added at 09:53 ---------- Previous post was at 09:46 ----------

It's not a fact, Chris, it's your opinion. Are you really saying that the subscription model cannot generate a decent profit?

Whilst I concede that if streaming services become flooded with ads interrupting programmes, linear channels would probably continue much as they are now, my premise is that this will not happen.

Your view seems to be that advertisements on streaming services are inevitable, even though Netflix has ruled that out.

My view is that Netflix should be taken seriously in terms of what it is saying and we should not be cynically implying that they are lying. That being the case, and assuming that other streaming services think the same, linear channels need to come up with some good plans to survive against the competition in the future.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Nope. It's a fact. The evidence is every other entertainment platform ever invented, from newspapers to cinemas. Even the venerable video library, which is the nearest existing analogy to streaming services like Netflix, would hire you VHS tapes, or latterly DVDs, that had several minutes of adverts at the beginning.

It is clear that Netflix has taken a commercial decision not to run adverts at this time. For you to blindly accept that this means they will never take adverts ever, is to completely fail to understand commercial reality. No business ever closes the door entirely and forever on a revenue stream that is open to its competitors, and is already being exploited by its competitors.

It's very generous of you to concede a point I have not made. The existence, or not, of adverts on VOD is totally irrelevant to the future of linear broadcast TV. Broadcast works, and will continue to work, on its own merits.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Nope, it is not a fact. You are assuming that the way things have 'always' happened in the past is the way things will always be done in the future.

The big advantages of the streaming services coming on stream now is that they are ad free and they provide a huge range of material instantly. Once they start to degrade those advantages, they will become less attractive.

If Netflix have worked out that they can provide the level of service they want to provide, funded by subscriptions, then ads are certainly not inevitable, particularly if they have calculated that this will reduce the interest in the services they offer.

If your whole argument is based on your insistence that Netflix are lying, then I'm afraid I don't buy that argument.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Again, you're quoting my posts but clearly you're not reading them. I've never at any point said Netflix are lying. What I have done, repeatedly, and (I thought) as clearly as possible, is point to the simple commercial reality that no business can ever say never.

First, businesses are bound by law to ensure their shareholders get a return on their investment. They can't disavow adverts for all time, if in future that strategy reduces shareholder value. Second, chief executives don't stay in post forever. When one leaves and another one takes the job, strategy changes. The current management at Netflix has concluded that current market conditions make their current business model both sustainable and desirable. In the future, that will change. It always does, for every business, sooner or later.

At some point in the future, Netflix will run adverts. It is a fact, beyond all reasonable doubt. The sheer weight of evidence simply doesn't allow you to pass my conclusion off as an "assumption".

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Sorry OB, but the past is the greatest indicator of what will happen in the future. There is nothing new in the world. The proverbial old wheel spins but the same proverbial spokes continue to turn too.

Netflix could easily fund everything through subscription, but look at the price increases in the last couple of years used to fund the new content. Just out of curiosity, how much would you be willing to pay for an ad free Netflix service over the next 5 years? Bearing in mind you will probably need pay TV to fulfil your viewing needs during that time too.

I think unskippable ads on VOD are inevitable, and that will only strengthen linear TV's appeal.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I couldn't really say how much I would be prepared to pay because it would depend on what was on offer. I wouldn't want to pay a lot more for the services Netflix currently offer, but if we had a better range of programming, such as is available in the US, I would definitely pay a few quid more every month.

Any streaming service that offered me a really huge library of material (including the new as well as the old stuff) would be more valuable to me than the subscription I pay to Sky Movies and Sky Sports, lets put it that way.

At some point in the future, when streaming services have a more comprehensive offer, I shall certainly look again at the TV package I subscribe to and I may ditch some of my existing packages. I am certainly becoming disillusioned with Sky's offering these days, there's virtually nothing on their non premium channels worth watching. The Channel 4 bouquet of channels puts them to shame.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Fair enough to the price. I think Sky are obviously putting all the "good" stuff on Atlantic purely to try to continue to force people to get Sky.

With regards your post in the other thread, someone pointed out the majority of people are watching linear TV. Very few are watching on demand/streaming.
I would not expect 16-24 year olds to watch much TV anyway. I also doubt there are that many adverts aimed at 16-24 year olds. Over 60% of that demographic are watching linear and recorded tv, why aren't the rest watching more on demand/streaming (which includes some linear services)? That's over 4 times the amount of people watching on demand/streaming (which includes some linear services.) Please do tell me why more people aged 16-24 are not watching more on demand etc - seeings as that is what you think the next generation will watch. That is just one part of where your argument fails.

According to those figures, Linear TV is still the most watched medium and on demand/streaming (which includes some linear services) is clearly not as popular as you think with that generation.

The youngsters are most likely either out enjoying their young lives or doing their studies. Goodness knows I used to enjoy my evenings out, I certainly did not stay in and watch coronation street (or study enough any where near enough)!!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Oh, I do agree with you Harry on the fact that linear broadcast channels on TV currently ranks as the most popular medium for watching TV. But the trend is away from this. Notice incidentally, that 50% of the viewing that takes place by 16-24 year olds is free of ads. Does that not scream something at us? They may watch less TV than other age groups, but what they watch and how they watch it is important to note.

The older age groups obviously take more time to adjust to these things, but it is the younger ones that set the trend.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Firstly, if 50% of content is ad free, the other 50% isn't.

29% of the 50% you quote is watching content via recordings or DVD etc. Both recordings and DVD's etc have ads, which help keep costs of DVDs etc down, and recordings are obviuosly off linear tv. A further 8% watched "content" (I use content in its loosest possibly term) via youtube facebook etc. I am pretty certain the vast amount of videos on facebook, youtube etc have ads, even if it is just the little ad box that pops up. Many have the unskippable ad's already (like most newspaper sites) and the little box ads as well. Some (mercifully) have none or skippable ads - these are the rarity. I don't watch many of the videos, but I the ones I do are ad funded. 7% watch On-demand, and we know ITV and 4od already have unskippable ads, so the likelihood is that they would have seen ads on some of that content too. Only 6% can be guaranteed as being ad free.

So would you care to explain, in more detail, how you think 50% of the content 16-24 year olds is ad free? I look to forward to your response.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Well, first of all of course I agree that if younger viewers are watching 50% of content ad free, the other 50% isn't. My maths is at least that good. The point is, this percentage of ad free material is much higher than for older age groups and if everyone fell into the habit of viewing ad free wherever possible, the linear channels will be in trouble.

Whilst recordings have adverts (don't I know it), these are skippable and if viewers are skipping the ads, clearly the advertisers are not getting much benefit from that. I can shave around 15 minutes off recorded programming from the likes of Sky every hour and this is the only way I will watch the non premium Sky channels these days.

The DVDs I have bought recently do not have ads ('Game of Thrones' and 'Boardwalk Empire' do not have ads that I have to sit through at all). I know Blockbuster used to add commercials to their DVDs and maybe rental outlets still do this. However, aren't they skippable as well?

In terms of other digital viewing where you may get the odd pop up ad, this is rather different from the three or more minutes a time that have to be endured when watching broadcast television.

I have no experience of unskippable ads on demand because I think this is what you get on the computer, whereas the on demand you get on TV does not have this. I do concede that I had not taken account of unskippable ads on demand via computer.

I am not disagreeing that if advertisements do come big time to all methods of watching programmes, this will save linear TV. My point is that viewers are becoming tired of being beholden to the viewing schedules of linear TV and their interminable advertisements and sooner or later, people will migrate from that type of viewing.

I do not believe that streaming services will get bogged down with advertising, although as long as they offer this as an alternative to subscription viewing, this would be acceptable to me.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Nope, everybody has the option join Netflix etc and watch ad free programs. It is not restricted to a certain percentage of people or age groups.
I will say it once again, only 6% of 16-24 year old's watched guaranteed ad free content it. That suggests the younger generation are not falling into the habit of watching ad free content. Why are you struggling to understand that?

Yes, recordings and DVD ads are skippable, but that is the point. As I have said before, people have been skipping ad's for as long as I can remember, that is for well over 30 years and it still works as well now as it did 30 years ago - it will continue to happen for many, many more years yet.

IF companies are getting upset by paying good money for ad's and people are skipping ad's, what do you think they will do in the future - just roll over and not offer any ad's ever again? Or force people to watch them on VOD/streaming content. There will always be a need for companies to advertize, and companies will want to reach the maximum amount of people. If, as you suggest, that will be on demand, you can bet your bottom dollar that is where it will go!