Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36149234)

What about the men whose wives and daughters are over here, never to return?

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I lose track are we back at all powerful Russia that could march on Berlin within weeks or Russia on the brink of defeat if only Europe would donate more American weapons?

Here I thought the notion of young men being sent to the slaughter in the name of competing global ideologies died out after Vietnam but I guess as long as it’s not American blood dying for their interests that’s fine.

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It’ll never end. Ukraine ends up a hollow shell of a state acting as a de-facto NATO outpost. It’s women and children in Europe and it’s men in graves.

America will hyper-privatise everything to US multinationals to pay off the ever increasing amounts of debt it is accumulating.

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36149249)

J.F. is trapped in a great powers mindset, pretty much like Russia itself. Minor states have no agency, they are only allowed to be pawns on someone else’s chessboard. The idea that the strategic interests of sovereign democracies might coincide and align just doesn’t compute.

In reality, the pattern of military training and equipping undertaken by Western nations between the 2014 and 2022 invasions shows pretty clearly that the USA/NATO/Collective West had no intentions of trying to destroy the Russian army if/when it tried to overrun Ukraine. The AFU was trained and equipped to fight an insurgency against a presumed Russian puppet regime. To the extent that Great Power Politics were at play, they were aimed at keeping Russia off balance, and no more.

Western nations have only moved to supply and train Ukraine with heavy weapons as it has become clear that Ukraine has the will and the capacity to fight. Notably, they are still not supplying Ukraine with systems that might *actually* destroy the Russian military (ATACMS long range artillery rockets, F-16 fighters, anything that can reach a significant distance into Russia itself and start taking out airfields and other strategic assets). Aid is confined to that necessary to push Russia back to the Feb 2022 ceasefire lines, while admitting the possibility that Ukraine may wish to go further, into the eastern Donbas and Crimea.

There is a happy strategic realignment in that Ukraine wishes to continue to exist and America would like to see Russia dissuaded from creating mischief in the west, leaving America free to think about China. However, if Putin were to order his forces out of Ukraine, the war would end there and then. It is Putin who is sending Russian people and equipment to destruction, not Joe Biden.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36149413)

America will never let them negotiate a peace settlement until it’s strategic objectives are met.

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Except of course nobody asks the Ukrainians if they want to fight for every inch of territory as conscript toy soldiers for Zelensky’s paymasters in Langley.

There’s no opposition parties, trade unions or media interests out there. Only patriotic rhetoric.

Your post, inadvertently, proves my point. America could suitably equip Ukraine but doesn’t. A decisive, swift victory doesn’t suit America. A long, drawn out war paid for in Ukrainian blood and debt does. Hence it equips Ukraine just enough to prolong the status quo on the battlefield. NATO creeps eastwards, Russia remains bogged down in international sanctions, Ukraine remains a puppet regime.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36149422)

Presumably from the safety of over here?

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36150143)

Ukraine Defence Dept. showing humour again.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36149422)

Presumably from the safety of over here?

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36151266)

Wagner chief announces Bakhmut retreat after furious tirade against Kremlin

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...37e34c863fffb3

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36151278)

He has stated this will be on March 10th.

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36151266)

Wagner chief announces Bakhmut retreat after furious tirade against Kremlin

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...37e34c863fffb3

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36151281)

I wasn't expecting a Russian withdrawal, that's good news.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36151278)

He has stated this will be on March 10th.

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36151286)

Ummmm, March 10th ?

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36151296)

Probably a typo/autocorrect- the article states 10th May.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36151518)

The Russian victory parade today. Allegedly the lone T34 was made in Karkiv, Ukraine c. 1940.



https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...65740258320387

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36151527)

The parade is traditionally led by a T34, so I understand.

But this parade only had 50 odd vehicles, as opposed to the hundreds of previous years.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36151545)

At that rate there will be no vehicles in 2024. :D

Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36151657)

Sending Long Range Missile to Ukraine is one thing. Telling everyone is another. Stupid, dangerous and paints a bigger target here. I do not like it.


https://news.sky.com/story/storm-sha...firms-12878298

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36151658)

Counter-intuitively, telegraphing it in advance is likely to lessen the chances of escalation. Russia can’t be surprised when hardened military installations 150 miles behind the front line suddenly start exploding and can’t be panicked into doing anything rash.

Incidentally the very worst escalation, in the very unlikely event of it happening, would be a very small tactical nuclear weapon used somewhere in Ukraine. For all the Nato aid that’s gone there, Ukraine is not in Nato and doesn’t have article 5 protection. We do. No matter how crackpot Putin gets, there are enough people in Russia sensible enough to save their own skins who would refuse to launch an attack on any Nato member.

Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36151659)

Now I do not necessarily think this will ever happen but there is a niggle in my paranoia that sees the UK used as a sacrificial lamb where Russia hits us with a nuke to prove they are will to do so and the rest of NATO back down in fear of global annihilation

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36152196)

Ukraine will get its F-16s after all.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65649471

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36152224)

Looks like this was the plan, those Ukranian pilots weren't training here for no reason.

Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36152228)

Massive kick in the teeth for Putin. Long range missiles now F 16s is quite an escalation

I don't like it

Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36152231)

I am 53 :)

Putin is a megalomaniac though. I do remember the Cold War and the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the USSR. I guess we have more access to the press now with the net. I did not really take in much threat when I was young

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36152196)

Ukraine will get its F-16s after all.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65649471

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36152240)

The Netherlands cancelled a deal to sell it's remaining F-16s to Draken International, easy to guess where they will actually end up.

IIRC that's at least 30 F-16's

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36152425)

I think Norway may have retired F-16's that could be diverted to Ukraine

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36152435)

I'm sure you're correct but the entire F-16 fleet was to be retired next year and the sale of it has been cncelled. Why? Possibly because they are going to retire them this year and let Ukraine have them? IDK.

Having checked it appears they have a total of 33.

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36152427)

Though it’s still far from clear what’s happening in Belgorod district, the BBC has noted it now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65674773

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36152437)

Sky News reckons they won't be used until 2024. This could be the fog of war, though.

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36152408)

That would be massive.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36152456)

It would be a bad idea. Repel Russia to Ukraine’s borders and no further.

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36152467)

But that’s exactly what this will achieve, whether it has Ukrainian backing or not. Russia will have to withdraw some of its forces into its actual territory if it looks likely to be vulnerable.

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36152467)

But that’s exactly what this will achieve, whether it has Ukrainian backing or not. Russia will have to withdraw some of its forces into its actual territory if it looks likely to be vulnerable.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36152474)

I don't see why Ukraine should be penalised by not being able to cross the border into Russia. Its declared aim is not to capture anything but its pre-invasion territory. I can't see why the aggressor nation should enjoy more flexibility on this than the invaded one.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36152614)

Prigozhin thinks all of Russia could be lost? (video with English subs)


https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/s...51213608853507

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36152625)

Makes you proud they think we're the brains behind the operation.

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36152631)

I'm starting to think that EON Productions is a front organisation for MI6, running the most successful psy-op of all time. :D

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36153344)

It should be noted that the environmental and societal impact of Russia blowing the Nova Kakhovka dam last night will be extremely long lasting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65818705

Russia has become an unstable terrorist state led by someone whose sanity must be in question. Troubling times indeed.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36153356)

More genocide?

The Russians refuse to evacuate the population in the occupied territories that are being flooded.

Over 40 thousand people are in danger of being flooded. Ukrainian authorities are evacuating over 17,000 people. Unfortunately, over 25,000 civilians are on the territory under Russian control. And the occupiers are not carrying out evacuation. This is yet another blatant disregard for human life and international law.

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36153358)

The Russians are also continuing to shell areas where Ukrainian authorities are trying to conduct evacuations.

I have to admit I am having a hard time understanding this sickness in the Russian soul. It is too easy to blame all of this on a few deranged lunatics in Moscow - there is complicity all the way down the chain of command.

.

Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36153359)

I do not understand it but I do expect it. During WWII they often shot their own troops who were sent into battle virtually unarmed. They killed an estimated 150000 of their own 15000 during Battle of Stalingrad of alone

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36153363)

Well would've thought...

"Russia calls on the UN Secretary General to condemn the destruction by Kyiv of the dam of the Kahhkovka hydroelectric power station. The West is used to doing dirty work with other people's hands," said Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's representative in the UN.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36153675)

I agree entirely Chris, the opportunity was missed back in 1991. We are where we are because of it, it may not have been as difficult back then, who knows?

Whilst the UN has expanded massively since inception the power of veto by any of the five permanent mambers has rendered it a paper tiger.

Anyway, going forward I like this analasis of Garasimove by Mark Ryan.AM ( retired aussie Major General)on twitter quite illuminating.

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/s...46913333727235

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36153788)

What is wrong with these people?

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36154086)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4...c-6e26d8c3ad9b (paywalled though).

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%...c-6e26d8c3ad9b Paywall removed.

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36154492)

Twitter is full of it this evening - claims the Russian regular army has started shelling Wagner positions and claims Prigozhin has issued a warning that he and his goons are about to march on Moscow to deal with the ‘traitors’ in the MoD.

If this is actually happening, and not the vodka-induced fantasies of Russian Telegram, things are about to get very spicy in Russia indeed.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36154501)

A Coup? In Russia? Crazy.

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More seriously though Wagner won't have the strength right?

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36154506)

Are they even near Moscow? Looks like they've shut the city down.

What's the best-case scenario here anyway? A long fight between the armed forces in Russia whilst Ukraine push on? I suspect we don't want Wagner anywhere near the Kremlin either.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36154511)

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36154514)

The chat in Wagner WAG chat rooms now is that their husbands, lovers and sons have been contacting them over the last 24 hours to say goodbye and ask them to keep an eye on the news. Something really does seem to be happening and it’s planned, not an impulsive thing.

You would have to assume Prigozhin is aware of the possibility of Putin dropping a nuke on him and has either taken precautions (force dispersal until they’re close enough to Moscow) or doesn’t rate it as very likely.

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36154503)

I read ‘Comment is Freed’ on Substack sometimes. ;). Only when they post a free entry though. :D

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25,000 angry, motivated and well trained and led soldiers would be plenty. The regular Russian army is none of those things and, furthermore, a lot of people still don’t realise how badly degraded it has been by the war in Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36154506)

Are they even near Moscow? Looks like they've shut the city down.