Cable Forum - Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Whether or not an independent Scotland eventually was able to join the EU, there would have to be a hard border and tariffs, with England, Wales, and NI, and the EU.

If a Scotland-UK agreement was reached, that would block any potential EU agreement, that is unless the premise of the NI backstop situation was totally bogus.
Scotland would lose any access to any trade agreements the UK, has and may come to.
Any advantage Ireland has had from the boom in tech industries, would not be available to Scotland. What is the likelihood of new major Google type industries starting up that could set up in Scotland? Any advantage that there might be for Scotland in that situation, would apply even more so to England, Wales, and NI.

If Scotland left the UK, there's no reason why it couldn't negotiate to remain in the UK single market and customs union which would mean no hard border with the UK. And no reason why it couldn't negotiate a smilar tariff-free trade deal with the EU. I'm not sure what makes you think this is impossible.

In time, both the UK and Scotland could join the EU but it would be easier if they did so at the same time.

---------- Post added at 21:44 ---------- Previous post was at 21:36 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36071544)

Seemed to me and a lot of others as a self-evident truth.
You're still the Remainer you ever were.

I think the only political thing upon which we agree is the folly of Scottish independence.

I'm sure you and Hugh agree on hundreds of political things from the market economy to human rights to the rights of a country to defend itself with arms. No one agrees on everything which is why discussion forums are always more interesting than echo chambers. :)

Pierre

21-02-2021 21:46

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36071546)

If Scotland left the UK, there's no reason why it couldn't negotiate to remain in the UK single market and customs ......I'm not sure what makes you think this is impossible.
.

Absolutely not impossible, access to their fishing, oil, etc.............would all be on the table.

nomadking

21-02-2021 22:01

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36071546)

So why did the EU(especially Ireland) insist on there being effectively a border between GB and NI. The same EU arguments would still be there, eg preserving the integrity of the EU single market.
Considering that to join the EU, Scotland would have to have their own currency, reduce their deficit to less than 3%, and maintain it for at least 2 years(iirc), then Scotland joining the EU is very much a non-starter, and by some miracle would still be years away.
The only thing Scotland has to offer the EU, is fishing waters. Is that going to be enough, considering how much Scotland will cost the EU.

Sephiroth

21-02-2021 22:10

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

By the time they might get independence, there'll be a much smaller market in England for their oil.

Obviously it makes sense for us to import "Scottish" fish. But this will be EU fish and a hell of a bunfight over fishing rights generally can be expected. Scotland won't have control.

What would the "etc" be? Pity you stopped there. I can't find on a quick trawl figures for Scottish meat supplied to England but I can't see anything stopping England from compensating production accordingly.

I think that Scottish independence would be a very bitter affair.

1andrew1

21-02-2021 22:27

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36071552)

It's not me who's suggesting that Scotland will join the EU any time soon! Others have suggested this will happen in the event of an independence vote and you have suggested some reasons as to why it won't. But I'm not sure a country having its own currency is an EU entry requirement.

It's WTO rules that necessitate require trade borders.

How much would Scotland cost the EU? It's far richer than accession country Republic of North Macedonia.

Sephiroth

21-02-2021 22:41

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36071557)

That's not saying much for Scotland!

On the cost of Scotland joining the EU, this is useful:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55921961

Quote:

A new economic study into trade concludes that the costs of Scottish independence would be two to three times greater than the impact from Brexit, and that joining the European Union would do little to offset that cost.

The SNP response is that there is no reason why Scotland cannot emulate the success of other countries of a similar size.

nomadking

21-02-2021 22:56

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36071557)

There would still need to be hard borders etc, in the meantime.
They need their own currency in order to demonstrate fiscal responsibility.:D
They would then have to give up that currency to adopt the Euro.
Whatever way you look at it, Scotland is running a deficit of well over 3%. Scotland and Wales are looking for the EU to prop them up.
If by some miracle Scotland no longer had a deficit, then they definitely would have, after contributing to EU funds.
North Macedonia's deficit for 2019 was around 2%.

The amount of Scotland's annual deficit is more than 10 times the amount of North Macedonia.

EU countries cannot have trade agreements outside of the EU. Scotland cannot have a trade deal with the UK and be a member of the EU.

Hugh	21-02-2021 23:26

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36071544)

Seemed to me and a lot of others as a self-evident truth.
You're still the Remainer you ever were.

I think the only political thing upon which we agree is the folly of Scottish independence.

How can someone saying

Quote:

Reasons given included extra costs and delays in getting the goods into the UK and an unwillingness to buy EU goods given the attitude of the EU to trade with us in recent months.

when that wasn’t one of the reasons given, be a "self evident truth"?

He stated something was in the survey results that wasn’t in the survey results - or, as everyone who can recognise reality would call it, a lie...

Sephiroth

21-02-2021 23:40

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36071563)

How can someone saying when that wasn’t one of the reasons given, be a "self evident truth"?

He stated something was in the survey results that wasn’t in the survey results - or, as everyone who can recognise reality would call it, a lie...

I accept that unwillingness to buy EU goods as a valid extrapolation. He's absolutely right in the totality of what he says.

Is there a public backlash towards the EU? I certainly think so. And there will be a similar backlash against Scotland, perhaps even more severe, if it gains independence.

1andrew1

22-02-2021 09:28

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36071564)

I think you need to prove intent with lying. So a statement that "we hold all the cards" may be factually incorrect, but if the person saying it believes it be true, then it's not lying.

Of course, if they're daft enough to promote such incorrect information then they shouldn't be in a position of responsibility anyway!

Sephiroth

22-02-2021 09:33

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36071572)

well, of course but only to the extent that the EU’s likely hostility should have been foreseen.

1andrew1

22-02-2021 09:53

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36071573)

well, of course but only to the extent that the EU’s likely hostility should have been foreseen.

Regardless of anything else that was to come, we did not hold all the cards.

Sephiroth

22-02-2021 12:08

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36071574)

Regardless of anything else that was to come, we did not hold all the cards.

But for Mrs May, we had a reasonably strong hand - called £39 billion. She gave way by letting them dictate the order of negotiations.
We should have simply walked away with the offer that they could approach us with their offer/suggestions.

She royally screwed us over.

Hugh	22-02-2021 13:31

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36071564)

I accept that unwillingness to buy EU goods as a valid extrapolation. He's absolutely right in the totality of what he says.

Is there a public backlash towards the EU? I certainly think so. And there will be a similar backlash against Scotland, perhaps even more severe, if it gains independence.

Made stuff up that wasn’t said - OK, then...

papa smurf

22-02-2021 13:36

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36071603)

Made stuff up that wasn’t said - OK, then...

Artistic licence:)

All times are GMT +1. The time now is 18:59.

Page 249 of 297

« First

149