Cable Forum - Brexit

I think there are many who will be surprised at how straight forward this turns out to be in the end. A few weeks ago I was castigated on here for ‘falling’ for that Article 28 proposition just because some ‘expert’ remainders said it was impossible and that clearly it couldn’t be done!

Well, Boris will see about that. Look and learn, guys!

Article 28 is difficult as at requires the non-objection of all WTO members.

Last I heard, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Uruguay, the United States, Canada, Brazil, Thailand, China, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica, Argentina, Colombia, Nicaragua and Ecuador weren't happy at our proposed schedule under article 28.

I haven't seen much movement recently on this so hopefully there is some good news soon.

denphone

26-06-2019 17:03

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000523)

Please do, and don’t accidentally lose it when it comes to pass!

Like Theresa May l suppose...;)

OLD BOY

26-06-2019 17:19

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36000527)

Yes, although I understand that it takes a couple of years to get these cases to court, by which time we should have the trade deal with the EU.

jonbxx

26-06-2019 18:48

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000532)

Yes, although I understand that it takes a couple of years to get these cases to court, by which time we should have the trade deal with the EU.

So we should break WTO rules and ask nicely for other trade deals from countries like the US, Canada, China and Australia who are objecting at the same time?

One thought is that it will be interesting how the EUs own Article 28 negotiations will affect things with future deals. I understand quite a few countries aren't happy with their proposals either.

Dave42

26-06-2019 21:23

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000532)

Yes, although I understand that it takes a couple of years to get these cases to court, by which time we should have the trade deal with the EU.

are you on fantasy island again OB and it takes much longer than couple years to do a trade deal

Mr K	26-06-2019 21:31

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 36000548)

see your living on fantasy island again OB and it takes much longer than couple years to do a trade deal

It's all about 'belief' Dave, facts mean nothing.

Clearly you are an unbeliever, however you will be blamed for 'negative vibes' when it all doesn't work out....

Carth

26-06-2019 23:03

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 36000548)

are you on fantasy island again OB and it takes much longer than couple years to do a trade deal

I guess a lot depends on how quickly both parties want a deal, nobody wants to lose trade - either way

1andrew1

26-06-2019 23:50

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 36000548)

are you on fantasy island again OB and it takes much longer than couple years to do a trade deal

You need to believe more and you will see a unicorn.

Maggy

27-06-2019 08:14

Re: Brexit

How about actually debating the topic and stop making silly digs at others.

OLD BOY

27-06-2019 10:04

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36000538)

Article 28 is a GATT provision, so it is not illegal!

---------- Post added at 10:04 ---------- Previous post was at 10:02 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 36000548)

are you on fantasy island again OB and it takes much longer than couple years to do a trade deal

Not between the UK and the EU, it won't. We already meet their standards, so it will not take anywhere near as long as it did for the Canada deal.

Dave42

27-06-2019 10:23

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000583)

Article 28 is a GATT provision, so it is not illegal!

---------- Post added at 10:04 ---------- Previous post was at 10:02 ----------

Not between the UK and the EU, it won't. We already meet their standards, so it will not take anywhere near as long as it did for the Canada deal.

time will tell we wait and see OB

TheDaddy

27-06-2019 10:24

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36000527)

Is that true? I was led to believe any objection has to include proof that these countries are being negatively affected, seeing as it's a continuation of current status it might be hard for them to prove but then what do any of is here actually know about this

jonbxx

27-06-2019 11:56

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36000583)

Article 28 is a GATT provision, so it is not illegal![COLOR="Silver"]

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36000593)

The issue is that the current status will not be carried on, even by dint that the size of the market would change from 508 million to 66 million and the balance of good domestically produced will change after leaving.

Here's the formal letter of objection to the UK and EU on the proposed TRQ schedule - https://iegpolicy.agribusinessintell...9A819C09FE2C6E

OLD BOY

27-06-2019 12:28

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36000605)

Article 28 requires agreement (or more accurately, absence of dispute) of all WTO members for a country to enact a change in their tariff and quota schedule. Changing it regardless of objections would be a break in the rules. As I understand it, it's the split of Tariff Relief Quotas between the UK and EU which are causing the most objections.

---------- Post added at 11:56 ---------- Previous post was at 11:49 ----------

The issue is that the current status will not be carried on, even by dint that the size of the market would change from 508 million to 66 million and the balance of good domestically produced will change after leaving.

Here's the formal letter of objection to the UK and EU on the proposed TRQ schedule - https://iegpolicy.agribusinessintell...9A819C09FE2C6E

Thank you for that information, jonbxx. However, it seems to me that the UK could come up with a solution that satisfies the objectors.

ianch99

27-06-2019 12:36

Re: Brexit

Some more evidence that a No Deal will adversely impact the UK:

No-deal Brexit could shut down car plants in UK, Japan tells Johnson and Hunt

Quote:

Just to remind him how disastrous a no-deal Brexit could be, the Japanese foreign minister, Taro Kono, was on the Today programme today talking about it, and he said it could threaten the future of Japanese car plants in the UK. It is fair to assume he was not exaggerating for comic effect. He said:

There are over 1,000 Japanese companies operating in the United Kingdom, so we are very concerned with this no-deal Brexit. That would have a very negative impact on their operations ...

There are a few Japanese auto manufacturers operating in the United Kingdom, and some parts are coming from continental Europe. Right now they have a very smooth operation; their stock for each part is only for a few hours.

But if there is a no-deal Brexit, and if they have to go through actual customs inspections physically, those operations may not be able to continue. And many companies are worried about the implications, because they do not know what is going to happen. They don’t know what happens legally or physically. So some companies have already started moving their operations to other places in Europe.

We do not want to disrupt the economic relationship with the UK. So we’ve been asking the UK government: let the Japanese companies know what they can expect and things should happen smoothly without any disruption.

Whenever we have had meetings [with the UK government] that was the issue - please no no-deal Brexit.

Kono also said that he hopes whoever won the Tory leadership contest would take account of Japanese concerns about a no-deal Brexit.

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