Cable Forum - Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36068273)

Which makes it all the more bewildering why Sturgeon is doing so well, given that the vaccine rollout is far below England’s. Why is nobody creating about that?

Sturgeon’s Holyrood government is failing the Scottish people in so many ways, but for some reason they just seem to be sleepwalking through the debris left by the farcical SNP.

I used to think the Scots were a canny lot. Now I’m not so sure.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36068281)

Which makes it all the more bewildering why Sturgeon is doing so well, given that the vaccine rollout is far below England’s. Why is nobody creating about that?

It’s on most of the front pages in Scotland this morning, because the daily vaccination rate on Sunday was the lowest yet. She’s trying to deflect with talk of opening 24/7 vaccination centres but if the hard numbers don’t improve soon the story won’t go away, because frankly there’s nothing else to talk about at the moment.

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Sturgeon’s Holyrood government is failing the Scottish people in so many ways, but for some reason they just seem to be sleepwalking through the debris left by the farcical SNP.

A substantial number of votes in Scotland are now cast on constitutional rather than policy or performance grounds. That said, until covid the polls weren’t looking brilliant for the SNP ahead of this year’s election. Their record on everything else is now being conveniently masked by Nippy’s knack for giving a good speech in a crisis. Still, if they do manage to feck up vaccine distribution in the way they have so much else in Scotland, then come election day it may yet have an impact.

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I used to think the Scots were a canny lot. Now I’m not so sure.

Well there’s nothing wrong with having your crude national stereotypes challenged ...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36068168)

Quite. It’s the English that are their perceived problem.

They begged to be part of us a few hundred years ago when they were bankrupt.

What will happen next time they ask, when they realise they can’t make it on their own?

Scottish people love being told what they think by the English.

Plenty of small countries survive without England, indeed I can’t think of a single country in what used to be Empire desperate to rejoin.

If you think Boris isn’t a factor then you’ve not been paying attention. There’s little united about a kingdom where England (and her voters) get the party they want in power (and as a result policy outcomes) far more than voters in Scotland.

Of course, it’s because English voters know better. :confused:

---------- Post added at 15:24 ---------- Previous post was at 15:20 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36068273)

There is some detailed polling here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-55803103

The rise in support for independence is not being driven by the completion of Brexit; that was priced in after the 2016 referendum. The way the covid crisis has unfolded and perceptions of how Sturgeon and Boris have handled it are at the root of current polling.

Polls like these are largely driven by emotional considerations. Hard practicalities are faced in the polling booth - this is why opposition parties poll well mid-term and then go on to lose the next election. We all like to believe the grass might be greener but when it’s decision time we need to be pretty sure it is before we take the leap.

The fundamentals that drove the vote in 2014 haven’t changed. Scotland would pay an exorbitant bill for taking itself out of the UK and would face social and economic upheaval in its relationship with England that would make the problems we presently face at the channel ports look like a Wednesday afternoon in Trumpton. Every single argument against Brexit can be levelled against Scexit, except it’s exponentially worse, because Scotland’s economic and social ties to England run far deeper than those of the UK to the EU, while Scotland’s resources deployable in mitigation of the upheaval are far less. Yet these sorts of questions tend not to be addressed by people answering opinion polls.

Well Scotland were denied the opportunity to pursue a ‘zero covid’ strategy by frothing at the mouth unionists adamant the border must stay open, even though other countries (such as Australia) closed borders between states.

It’s not unreasonable for some to conclude we are unfortunately the siamese twin of incompetent policy makers, regardless of whether public health is devolved or not.

The Scottish position is they are delivering the vaccine to care homes which it stands to reason is slower. The real question is how quickly each gets to the end of the JCVI lists. Of course independence supporters are extremely unlikely to read headlines from unionist papers anyway.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36068310)

Nice try, but the idea that Nicola “I’ll take no lessons”* Sturgeon didn’t close the border because of anyone other than herself is silly. Where issues are devolved, the buck stops at Bute House. The reality is she has agreed all along with the strategy of keeping stuff open where possible. She has differentiated herself just enough to be able to claim she has a distinct view but the reality is, if she had wanted to completely close Scotland to the outside world, she had the power to do so.

Nursing homes were last week’s excuse incidentally - this week, Sunday’s appalling vaccination rate is being blamed on “reporting lag”. Do try to keep up. ;)

*Head cocked slightly to the right and headbutting each syllable

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

And that is a Scot telling another Scot, he's talking bollocks I presume?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36068314)

And that is a Scot telling another Scot, he's talking bollocks I presume?

He's engaging constructively we just disagree.

---------- Post added at 15:54 ---------- Previous post was at 15:51 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36068313)

I don't pay attention to the minute detail because as I say it's generally a unionist press ruse and a clear tactic for the run up to the election

Publish exorbitant amounts of data every day, do it and we will criticise it as commercially sensitive. Thankfully most see through it and long term delivery is more important than whether you have out more doses on a Sunday than a Monday.

I think Scotland closing the border with England would cause a significant amount of civil unrest or disobedience from the unionists. Even last month as both Scotland and England had "stay at home" orders for people to stay near home or within their local authority areas it remained a talking point for one side of the fence that the border should stay open.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36068314)

And that is a Scot telling another Scot, he's talking bollocks I presume?

I like the’ head butting’ bit! :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36068350)

I like the’ head butting’ bit! :D

AKA "A Glasgow Kiss"...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36067830)

The Sunday Times today leads with a Union Jack-coloured spread today. Based on the results of a YouGuv survey, it claims we are now a "disunited kingdom" with a majority backing border polls in Scotland and Northern Ireland together with a growing call for a Welsh referendum.

https://storify.com/services/proxy/2...this%20one.png

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ds-decade-ago/

It's mostly behind a paywall*, but you can see enough to see that support for Welsh Independence is growing as you said last month.

*Apparently, the Telegraph doesn't check email addresses, so you can put any old junk address in there such as xyz@hotmail.com and it'll let you in. The only trouble is when someone else has used the same junk email address

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36070837)

The same argument also applies to them. How would they afford independence? Where is their financial plan?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36070841)

The same argument also applies to them. How would they afford independence? Where is their financial plan?

Yawn.

How does England finance anything? Fiscal deficit, over a trillion of debt, recession...

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36070841)

The same argument also applies to them. How would they afford independence? Where is their financial plan?

What business is it of yours, the issue and union may well be saved if English people keep out of it, actually cancel that, lecture them till your boots are filled

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36070849)

What business is it of yours, the issue and union may well be saved if English people keep out of it, actually cancel that, lecture them till your boots are filled

I've offered to pay for Old Boy to campaign for the cause of British nationalism in the Scottish Parliament elections.

He has thus far declined my kind offer, sadly.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36070842)

Yawn.

How does England finance anything? Fiscal deficit, over a trillion of debt, recession...

Debt and deficits have to be somewhat proportional to your GDP otherwise you'll struggle to borrow the money. Lenders want confidence you can pay it back.

Welsh GDP per Capita is lower than that of the U.K by quite a bit. The level of debt it could raise and thus spending it could make will would be lower per head than it is now.

And that's actually worse than it seems because per person Wales has more spent on it than the U.K average: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...20UK%20average).

So losing 10% per head spending even if they were to match U.K's GDP of which they're quite a way behind.

I.E Even if Wales could match U.K' proportional level of deficit spending (and the U.K can finance debt very cheaply) there would be a significant shortfall in the level of spending per person in Wales.

So it's a valid question to ask what their economic plan is.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36070851)

A legitimate question for the voters of Wales, yes. However if the voters of Wales voted for ideological reasons - 'taking back control' over economic ones then that is absolutely their perogative to do so.

Fundamentally, the UK makes economic decisions that (by it's own calculations) leave very few of the nations and regions as economic contributors. Wales, and other parts lagging behind on GDP per capita, will never make up the difference in the current constitutional settlement because there's no incentive for London to do so.