Cable Forum - Britain outside the EU

You have no idea whether or not the 4% reduction in GDP is permanent. I'd say that the UK will eventually sail past this - with better government, of course and that's not certain.

It's the OBR's own modelling that GDP will be permanently 4% lower than if we had remained in the EU. Even if we had a different Prime Minister, the factors that combine to make up the decrease in GDP like trade friction with the EU will still be there.

OLD BOY

29-12-2021 09:36

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36107293)

The OBR can't have factored in the anticipated new trading opportunities, then. How could they? It's a bit hard to anticipate exactly how businesses will seek to maximise these opportunities. We will only know that when it happens.

heero_yuy

29-12-2021 09:54

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Quote from The Sun:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1562846859

Britain's economy will outstrip all other G7 countries next year as it bounces back after Covid, experts reckon.

Economists predict a booming 2022 - in part down to the UK's lightening fast booster vaccine roll-out.

A Goldman Sachs report predicted UK growth of 4.7 per cent over the next 12 months - well above the estimated 3.8 per cent for the US.

France, Germany and Japan also have relatively measly projections of 3.9 per cent, 3.5 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively.

The remaining two G7 countries - Canada and Italy - will also have a more modest growth of 4.3 per cent, The Telegraph reports.

HSBC has forecast a similar increase for the UK in 2022, building on this year's output expansion of almost 7 per cent after an almost 10 per cent shrinkage in 2020 when the virus first hit.

Telegraph link above for those with access.

Hugh	29-12-2021 10:12

Re: Britain outside the EU

So, 4.7% is booming, 4.3% modest?

Sephiroth

29-12-2021 10:13

Re: Britain outside the EU

But ianch99 is utterly convinced that Brexit is a disaster. They can’t both be right - the experts or Ian?

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36107311)

So, 4.7% is booming, 4.3% modest?

No, just “more modest”.

BenMcr

29-12-2021 10:40

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36107309)

Telegraph link above for those with access.

however it's also worth knowing where the starting point is.

This is where we were at the start of the year.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...an-2021-04-25/

Quote:

Britain's economy shrank by nearly 10% last year as it was hit by longer coronavirus lockdowns than many of its peers. By comparison, the U.S. economy shrank by an estimated 3.5%, according to the IMF.

1andrew1

29-12-2021 10:50

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36107308)

They have factored in future trading opportunities.

1andrew1

29-12-2021 10:55

Re: Britain outside the EU

1 Attachment(s)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36107312)

But ianch99 is utterly convinced that Brexit is a disaster. They can’t both be right - the experts or Ian?

---------- Post added at 10:13 ---------- Previous post was at 10:12 ----------

No, just “more modest”.

Why not take a look at the data and decide?

Chris

29-12-2021 11:41

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36107319)

Why not take a look at the data and decide?

I've decided that there's just, barely, enough context in that graph (from 2014-2016) to show that UK/EU/US GDP growth actually do not normally mirror each other identically as they were doing immediately before and after the referendum, and that most of the graph relates to the pandemic period in which, frankly, all bets are off. While the UK presently sits lower than the EU there is some indication in the graph that the UK is recovering more quickly.

All in all, the FT's choice of headline here should raise an eyebrow or two because it appears to be stretching credulity just a tad.

ianch99

29-12-2021 12:33

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36107308)

The OBR has not factored in the sunlit upland "opportunities" because they don't exist (except in your imagination).

How the UK-Australia free trade agreement is worth 200 times less than EU membership

Quote:

The government’s own estimates suggest that the Australia deal will only boost GDP by 0.02 per cent, compared to a 4 per cent loss from Brexit.

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For those who wold like some background information on why Brexit is never going to be a success economically:

Remember, if all you can do is to champion the ability to mitigate the losses then you have already lost the argument.

1andrew1

29-12-2021 12:48

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36107326)

Remember, if all you can do is to champion the ability to mitigate the losses then you have already lost the argument.

I thought we were going to have a bonfire of red tape when we left the EU to try and mitigate the GDP reduction. It seems like all that regulation was in fact needed afterall. :confused:

OLD BOY

29-12-2021 13:39

Re: Britain outside the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36107318)

They have factored in future trading opportunities.

And how have they come up with a figure if we are still waiting for those opportunities to be seized?

Think of a number, halve it….

---------- Post added at 13:39 ---------- Previous post was at 13:38 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36107319)

Why not take a look at the data and decide?

Because it’s far too early. We are only in our first post Brexit year.

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