Cable Forum - Post-Brexit Thread

I think Rizzyking nailed it by saying no-one really knows what will happen. I think reading something that is only a pessimistic foresight, just fans the flames and feeds a remoaners appetite that they want Brexit to fail.

It's not just a pessimistic forecast, it does highlight the areas where jobs are being created.
And I don't know anyone (Brextremist or Remoaner) who wants Brexit to fail, that wild theory comes from the same people who said we send £350m each week to Brussels.
I don't think anyone wants the country to go to the dogs just to prove people wrong but many appreciate that a long-term economic price (which means less money free to be spent on the NHS, armed forces, education, infrastructure) will be paid by leaving the EU, imperfect though that organisation is.

RizzyKing

29-12-2016 16:09

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Your assuming a net loss over a prolonged period of time and that cannot just be assumed without knowing what trade talks we are unofficially involved with now or in the future let alone official talks once we get out. Nobody knows what measures this or any future government may take to capitalise on our greater freedom to negotiate future trade deals or to stimulate the UK economy. There are simply too many unknowns for anyone to make realistic predictions for 2030 with a straight face no matter how well worded it might be.

This is not even taking into account the feelings of many european businesses that currently trade with the UK who do not want an over penalising of trade by the EU as some punitive measure. If nothing else you can hardly be surprised that "gloom" fatigue has well and truly set in with many people. Your also wrong as there are quite a few remain supporters who would love nothing more then for the UK to fail so they can feel superior as their ego is far more important to them then anything as silly as national interest I've met quite a lot over the last few months.

Ramrod

29-12-2016 16:17

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35878229)

Actually, it's quite a balanced report and Brexiters will find favour with its talk about the impacts of high levels of immigration. It mentions Brexit alongside other important factors like automation and an ageing population. The article makes an interesting read.

Balanced? lol!
The IPPR is simply trying to create anti-Brexit noise

Quote:

But it is what the IPPR goes on to say next that really takes the biscuit. Brexit, it claims, ‘is the firing gun on a decade of disruption’, which will involve an ageing population and a fragile world order which will see American hegemony fade and economic power drift away from the West to the ‘Global South’. Brexit will also help fire the starting gun on ‘exponential improvements in new technologies – computing power, machine learning, artificial intelligence systems, automation, autonomous vehicles, health and resource technologies, and the Internet of Things, among others – are expected to radically transform social and economic life’.

Wow, that is quite a list to lay at the door of Brexit. It is possible to argue that if Brexit leads to more constrained migration — and that is an ‘if’ — it could contribute to an ageing population in the UK, although our average age will continue to rise in or out of the EU. But how on Earth can a predicted (and probably wrong, as it has been many times before) decline of American hegemony be blamed on Britain leaving the EU?

More bizarrely still, what on Earth has Brexit has got to do with artificial intelligence?

:D

---------- Post added at 15:17 ---------- Previous post was at 15:14 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35878258)

As I explained in an earlier post, the article is not by a pro-leave or a pro-remain organisation.

That's nort what the Spectator says:

Quote:

the Institute of Public Policy Research, a think tank closely associated with the Blair-era Labour party

martyh

29-12-2016 16:53

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35878288)

Balanced? lol!
The IPPR is simply trying to create anti-Brexit noise

:D

---------- Post added at 15:17 ---------- Previous post was at 15:14 ----------

That's nort what the Spectator says:

Your really going to use an avid foaming at the mouth Brexiter like Ross Clark to show that an article is biased. :rolleyes:

In actual fact the report ,the actual report not a newspapers interpretation of the report ,is simply a musing based on current trends like Brexit,the ageing population,global warming and advancements in technology.It is simply highliting the fact that these trends will shape the world in the comming years ,Brexit being just one of them.The closing paragragh says it all

Quote:

This is the world hurtling towards us, with very different futures and modernities becoming possible. Critically, there is immense potential for technological and economic change to be shaped to create a more abundant, democratic and equal society. However, we will have to better understand how our world is changing, and by what forces those changes are driven, if we are to build that future. As David Bowie said, ‘Tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming'.

http://www.ippr.org/publications/fut...n-in-the-2020s

http://www.ippr.org/news-and-media/p...-2020s-britain

1andrew1

29-12-2016 17:32

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Good illustration of practical implications of applying WTO rules.

UK mobile users face return of steep roaming bills after Brexit

Quote:

UK networks fear that rival telecoms companies in the EU could raise wholesale prices for calls and data. One telecoms executive told the Financial Times that it is preparing for a “worse case scenario”, in which these higher charges were not covered entirely by roaming charges, but would spill over into higher line rental or other fees across the whole network. “We could be exposed to the likes of France and Spain raising prices,” he said.

A quick bilateral deal between the UK and the EU to cover roaming is not possible, according to the European Commission. In a response to a question on the topic last year, Günther Oettinger, the German commissioner responsible for the bloc’s telecoms policy, said that “there are obvious constraints”.

Under WTO rules, any bilateral agreement outside of a comprehensive free-trade deal would have to be extended to all other WTO members, warned Mr Oettinger in a response to the European Parliament last year.

Google headline or subscription link at https://www.ft.com/content/b39105a0-...9-9445cac8966f

---------- Post added at 16:23 ---------- Previous post was at 16:20 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35878288)

Balanced? lol!
That's not what the Spectator says:

The IPRR did not recommend people vote to leave or remain in the EU and I repeated this important point. Nothing you have posted contradicts this statement.

---------- Post added at 16:32 ---------- Previous post was at 16:23 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35878286)

Your also wrong as there are quite a few remain supporters who would love nothing more then for the UK to fail so they can feel superior as their ego is far more important to them then anything as silly as national interest I've met quite a lot over the last few months.

These mythical creatures usually only appear in the columns of the Daily Express and the more extreme Brexiters' vivid imaginations who are seeking scapegoats for any poor economic performance. I think you must have been unfortunate enough to meet the entire population of them!
Some people may joke along these lines but people losing jobs etc is no laughing matter and when push comes to shove they will want Brexit to be as successful as it can be.

Ramrod

29-12-2016 18:30

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35878296)

The closing paragragh says it all

Considerint that it's a report about the implications of brexit, it's odd (and telling) that the closing paragraph doesn't even mention brexit.

martyh

29-12-2016 19:02

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35878305)

Considerint that it's a report about the implications of brexit, it's odd (and telling) that the closing paragraph doesn't even mention brexit.

It's not a report about the implications of brexit ,it's a report about what the UK could look like if the current trends continue ,Brexit and the current trend of anti establishment being just one part

RizzyKing

29-12-2016 20:17

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

They are not mythical creatures don't be so stupid or do you maintain the equally stupid position that only leave has it's extremist fringe that you as well as others on this forum have ridiculed so often. There are idiots on both sides of the divide and i very much doubt I've met the entire population on the remain side anymore then I've met the entire population on the leave side. I've tried to be balanced and rational much as i could in the whole brexit thing apart from my total belief in our being better out of the EU then in but whats really starting to get up my nose is people doing their best to come across as balanced when they are anything but and clearly have an agenda examples of which can be found on both sides just like everything else.

I'd also question why nothing but gloomy rubbish makes a regular appearence in our media whilst anything positive is totally ignored. I'm not sure there is any point in anymore debate until we have something new to debate apparently we should around march time.

Damien

29-12-2016 20:52

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kursk (Post 35878201)

So in using the term to describe yourself as you do under your forum name, you are actually making a statement about it as a derogatory term with negative connoitations?

You fooled me, I thought you were using it with admirable abandon to identify yourself as a proud 'member' of the Remain group. In fact, you may have encouraged its use on the forum being a mod and all that.

I am using it ironically or sarcastically. As I said it think it's obviously meant to be a disparaging term but I am not one for easily getting triggered or taking offence (which might also be why I am less likely to see why Brexit supporters are offended when someone says something disparaging).

Quote:

Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35878316)

I'd also question why nothing but gloomy rubbish makes a regular appearence in our media whilst anything positive is totally ignored.

Negative news sells. Ebola was a big crisis until it wasn't and suddenly it didn't matter anymore. You wonder how many massive problems we've had which we were quietly solved and we simply forgot. It's not unique to Brexit anyway, the EU ways always the recipient of bad news too.

Quote:

I'm not sure there is any point in anymore debate until we have something new to debate apparently we should around march time.

Agreed.

Kursk

29-12-2016 21:11

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35878319)

Fair enough. If I use the term in future it will be for the irony ;). To be honest though, I'm calling it a day on this thread, it has nothing more to say.

Remoaning and out.

1andrew1

29-12-2016 21:43

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35878316)

Sorry, I intended to phrase that better, something like mainly mythical creatures. I maintain that these rare individuals - none of whom I've met - will want it to be as successful as it can be.
I've not ridiculed anyone or even called them stupid. I prefer to focus on the issues.
The latest being another legal challenge:

The Guardian Fresh Brexit challenge in high court over leaving single market and EEA

Quote:

A group of four anonymous claimants have joined a judicial review of government plans to leave the EU, alleging that separate parliamentary approval is needed to quit the EEA.
The new challenges issued on Thursday will consolidate the case already initiated by the pro-single market organisation British Influence. The government and the European commission insist that the UK departs the EEA at the moment it leaves the EU.
But article 127 of the EEA agreement requires contracting parties, which include the UK, to give at least 12 months’ notice before leaving, the claimants point out. That, they maintain, implies a separate departure process from the one in article 50 of the EU treaty that has been disputed in the supreme court.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...gle-market-eea

1andrew1

30-12-2016 11:55

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Brexit transition deal may avert UK economic ‘catastrophe’
It will be “totally impossible” for Britain to wrap up a trade pact with the EU within two years and a transition deal will be needed to avert “a catastrophe” for the British economy, according to one of the EU’s most eminent lawyers.

Jean-Claude Piris, the head of the EU Council’s legal service from 1988-2010, said a trade deal would comprise “thousands of pages and hundreds of articles” and there was no chance of it being completed before a scheduled Brexit in 2019.

The comments by Mr Piris, the legal architect of a succession of EU treaties from Maastricht to Lisbon, directly contradict claims by Theresa May, Britain’s prime minister, that both a divorce deal and a trade accord can be signed within two years of Article 50 being triggered.

Google headline or subscriber link https://www.ft.com/content/5b423566-...3-7e34c07b46ef

Ramrod

30-12-2016 19:21

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Well Jean-Claude Piris can feck right off (imHo) :D

heero_yuy

30-12-2016 19:25

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ramrod (Post 35878425)

Well Jean-Claude Piris can feck right off (imHo) :D

Indeed. As a committed Europhile I would not have expected any other response.

TBQH I would stop all this sodding about and just leave. This would give the clarity that industry needs and a 2 year period to prepare for it.

Ramrod

30-12-2016 19:34

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35878426)

TBQH I would stop all this sodding about and just leave. This would give the clarity that industry needs and a 2 year period to prepare for it.

Exactly. I'm sure that if we just invoked article 50 the EU would suddenly sit up and say "oh sh*t, we need the UK" and knuckle down to a deal.

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