Cable Forum - Russia has invaded Ukraine

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Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36114708)

As colossal as Russia military might is, as we know, they are 3rds biggest super power. They have suffered a bit of a bruising in Ukraine. Some expert analysis and commentators have said Putin could lose patience, become enraged and unleash a smaller sized Nuke on Ukraine.

He must realise that there are hundreds of nuclear missiles aimed at Russia after his threats the other day, launching a nuke how ever small will probably trigger an instant response and then the shit hits the fan.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Huge rally in Georgia – invaded by Russia in 2008 – in solidarity with Ukraine tonight. Putin massively over played his hand here.

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Russian private jets included in UK Airspace ban effective immediately.

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Reuters is reporting just now that Ukraine and Russia are discussing a place and time for talks, citing Zelensky’s spokesman.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Don't know if it's connected but British Airways website is currently down.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth (Post 36114740)

Don't know if it's connected but British Airways website is currently down.

They’re saying it’s not a cyber attack. However, reports that the Nvidia has potentially suffered such attack.

Meanwhile: Interesting analysis here by Dr Mike Martin, @ThreshedThought - War Author:

Quote:

There seem to be quite a lot of reports that Russia is not getting as far ahead as it would have hoped in its invasion.

If you look at the soviet deep strike doctrine, this this attack appears to be based on, it is about fast moving columns advancing on different axes in order to QUICKLY encircle enemy forces. It’s about deep fires, and about having multiple echelons of troops

… so that successive waves can move forward and exploit any axes of advance that look promising.

The key to this is moving fast. And keeping your logistics protected - your armour is going to be out on a limb.

But it seems that the Russians are a bit surprised that the Ukrainians have fought back. And fought back well.

The Russians are taking casualties, which it seems they weren’t expecting. The Russian ministry of health had just effectively mobilised civilian doctors in Russia. One assumes to deal with the level of casualties being sustained.

This makes sense in the following way. Putin basically assumed that the Ukrainians would collapse so all they would have to do is a thunder run to Kyiv. Don’t worry about the logistics - we’ll sort that out once we’ve toppled their government.

But if you’re the Ukrainians and you know that the Russians are gonna use some variant of deep strike doctrine what do you do?

You let the armoured columns pass and then destroy the log tail using stay behind parties armed with anti tank weapons, or using helicopters, whilst keeping them out of the cities (Incredibly stupid by the way that the Russians didn’t wipe out the Ukrainian Air Force before they started - a real sign of their hubris)

So I would guess that a lot of the Russian casualties are the logistic elements that are following up. So far the Russians seem to have committed about 50k forces or a third of what they have. So maybe there are more echelons coming, and maybe the Russians will still overwhelm Kyiv. Or maybe they won’t. It seems in the balance.

And the longer the Ukrainians can hold on, the less the Russians will be able to continue.

Amateurs talk tactics and professionals talk logistics.

It’s also really unclear what putin’s political objectives are for this war. And as the west learnt over the last two decades, deploying military force without clearly understanding the political aims is stupid and leads to failure.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36114746)

Interesting stufff … do you have a link for this source? I’d like to keep up with what he’s saying.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Twitter handle is : http://www.Twitter.com/threshedthought above Thread is on his Twitter page.

Website: https://www.threshedthought.com/

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36114750)

Twitter handle is : http://www.Twitter.com/threshedthought above Thread is on his Twitter page.

Website: https://www.threshedthought.com/

Muchas gracias :tu:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

From Kyiv Independent: Ukraine’s air defense downs a Russian transporter carrying paratroopers near Kyiv. A Russian Ilyushin Il-76 plane was shot down close to the city of Vasylkiv south of Kyiv, according to Ukraine’s top general Valeriy Zaluzhniy.

The aircraft could carry up to 150 troops.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Feb 26 (Reuters) - Russian troops during an assault tonight, attacked an army base in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv but the assault was repelled, the Ukrainian military said in a Facebook posting early on Saturday.

Ukraine Independent is claiming Ukraine Air Defence has shot down another paratrooper plane.

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Incredibly-Russia is reportedly asking its allies for assistance with its invasion of Ukraine. - DEFCONWarningSystem.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

America has offered to evacuate Zelensky, he refused the offer saying "he needed ammunition not a ride and when we're attacked you see our faces not our backs", the man is an inspiration, bet Vlads not laughing at the comedian now.

Some of the stories coming out about self sacrifice are as inspirational as they are tragic, like the lad who blew the bridge up before the Russians could cross, there was no time to do it remotely so he did it manually on the bridge :(

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36114760)

Just been reading about that; total and utter self sacrifice in order to try and save his country from tyrannical rule. It brought a tear to my eye.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36114760)

Not to forget Snake Island, the absolute definition of heroes:

Ukraine soldiers told Russian officer ‘go f**k yourself’ before they died on island

Quote:

“This is a military warship. This is a Russian military warship. I suggest you lay down your weapons and surrender to avoid bloodshed and needless casualties. Otherwise, you will be bombed,” the Russian office was recorded as saying on a naval radio channel.

After a short period of silence in the recording, a Ukrainian officer reportedly responded: “Russian warship, go f**k yourself.”

All 13 soldiers died after refusing to surrender, Ukrainian officials announced.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

My take on Putin and the whole Ukraine thing, is as follows:

Putin’s mindset is stuck in pre- 1991/1992, USSR era when Soviet was one whole block. He doesn’t see Ukraine as a legitimate country, never has. He’s grossly miscalculated here, showed more of his hand, than he has liked. He’s lived too long, he’s constantly surrounded by people, who fear him. So last year when, U.S and the west abandoned Afghanistan and the relatively easy takeover the Taliban achieved, this had clearly galvanised him to take Ukraine.

Putin’s clearly lost touch with ordinary Russians though, he is however capable of manipulation, through fear and State run Media. But the Russian youth has access to an open cyberspace, he doesn’t control. So they’re seeing in full context, their country bomb schools, kill innocent civilians and their dead bodies laying in the streets.

So Putin in 2022, is looking at Ukraine from a Soviet 1992 perspective. But today's Russia is not the same Soviet Union, he once knew. He has clearly calculated that he rolls in to Kyiv, topple the Ukraine government, kill President Zelenskyy, because he can’t control him, he’s new and has no baggage for leverage and illegally install his own Putin-puppet government. He’s misread the room, he thought Ukrainians would lay down their arms and accept any government of his bidding.

But this Ukraine is different. The Ukrainian people are seeing there is something worth fighting for, sure Russia is the bigger boy, but they’re seeing their leader stay and fight, Russia’s propaganda machine claimed he’d fled, however, up popped a video, him saying, he’s still there, fighting. In the early hours, the U.S feared Russia would capture him and kill him and wanted to secure a rescue attempt, but he’s refused, instead demanding more ammunition. Magnificent valour. Totally inspirational.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36114764)

Not to forget Snake Island, the absolute definition of heroes:

Ukraine soldiers told Russian officer ‘go f**k yourself’ before they died on island

This again, would have rallied around Ukrainian troops. Zelenskyy had promised true hero recognition for their bravery.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Of course we do have to realise a lot of what we are being told could well be propaganda. I am taking it all with a pinch of salt

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36114708)

unleash a smaller sized Nuke on Ukraine.

He’s not that stupid.