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Re: [Updated] The UK’s future relationship with the EU
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The UK has been a member of the WTO since 1995, anyway, it's just we were dealt with as part of the EU... |
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Brexit LIVE: EU on alert as report warns of bankruptcies across bloc - Ireland at risk:shocked:
OOh heck :shocked: THE EU is on alert after an economic report warned economies in the bloc will suffer because of Brexit, with bankruptcies anticipated in Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands. https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...-single-market |
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I suspect the truth lies that to a degree the EU needs us, and we will need the EU. To what degree that is? There's a lot of political willy waving (or Sabre rattling if you prefer) ongoing at the moment, from both sides. Hopefully it will calm down. |
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On the other hand, if, like me, you are on the sovereignty line of reasoning, those two possibilities (mutual need) cancel out. |
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*In the U.K., we have the idea of parliamentary sovereignty, which holds that Parliament is the highest source of authority to make/amend laws without restriction. |
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If Nathalie Loiseau reflects EU thinking then we will leave in December with no deal.........
Typical 1 way traffic from the EU that think the smart way to negotiate is to dictate terms. It also seems the “Level playing field” is also a 1 way direction. This is just a clip but seek out the whole interview. https://youtu.be/vLPNB_HBCeM ---------- Post added at 19:09 ---------- Previous post was at 19:04 ---------- Quote:
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The constitutional understanding of parliamentary sovereignty has changed before and can change again - I would much rather parliament had not caused it to be challenged in this way, but they did, and now the question of where parliament’s sovereignty ultimately arises from, and how long parliament can go on frustrating the clearly expressed will of the electorate, remains open. It might just make our next constitutional crisis that much harder to resolve. |
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The Tories initially conducted negotiations around May's red lines and then via Johnson, who pragmatically dropped the Irish Sea border red line. Labour promoted a customs union Brexit, consistently voting down anything that could not achieve that without another year of trade negotiations. They sought to confirm that choice with the electorate by having a confirmatory referendum. Frankly, the difficulty for Parliament was that the binary referendum gave them no clue what the people really wanted. They were handed an insoluble conundrum. In 2016 the Leave campaign had dangled all kinds of Brexit in front of the electorate, from No Deal to being full members of the EEA. Farage famously recommended the Norway solution, but later denied it. The upshot of this was that those who voted for Brexit, voted with different models of Brexit in mind. Throughout the following three years different political factions on the Leave side were able to promote different versions, but in the end No Deal zealots, on the back of Johnson's political ambitions, have won through. They have a virtual guarantee of No Deal in twelve months time, if they choose it, thus completely ignoring polls showing that most of us don't want No Deal and ignoring the fact that parties that wanted a confirmatory referendum collectively accrued more votes than those who promoted Brexit. |
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Second, what is your actual point? Support for the parliamentary games? Or just catching me out. I respect the latter! ---------- Post added at 13:58 ---------- Previous post was at 13:56 ---------- Quote:
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[/COLOR][QUOTE=Sephiroth;36024424]First, what is the State if not its people, the majority of which did not intend Parliament to misuse its sovereignty?
Second, what is your actual point? Support for the parliamentary games? Or just catching me out. I respect the latter! A state is a nation or territory considered as an organised political community under one government. The people are an essential element of a state, but they are not synonymous with it. Parliamentary sovereignty is a description of to what extent the Parliament of the United Kingdom does have absolute and unlimited power. The European Union Referendum Act 2015, approved on 14th December 2015, made legal provision for a consultative referendum to be held in the United Kingdom and Gibraltar, on whether it should remain a member state of the European Union or leave it. Parliament in so doing did not peel off some of its sovereignty and hand it to the people. This was a consultative referendum, that did not oblige the sitting government or Parliament to take that expressed public opinion through into legislation. Political reality and rash promises by some members of government, made it difficult to ignore public opinion, but Parliamentary sovereignty remained supreme. Parliament could decide whether to carry out the wishes of the 52% or not. Parliament decided to do so, when it voted to trigger Article 50, mostly because those parties who supported Remain were wary of consequences, come the next general election. As it happens, they should not have been afraid because public opinion has been at least 53% in favour of Remain for the last 18 months. If Parliament had held its nerve and voted against the trigger, history could have been so different. Interestingly, if the referendum had been binding, and parliamentary sovereignty had been put out on loan to the people sic, the Electoral Commission has already announced that it would have had the power to nullify the result because of the industrial levels of electoral fraud by the leave campaign. As it is, it could only heavily fine the culprits. But, that is another story. As for the conduct of Parliament, I stand by my view that the shadow government did not try to thwart the referendum result. Corbyn was adamant that we should try to leave with a customs union arrangement. Internal politics and the threat that Remainers might cease to support Labour, forced him to concede a confirmatory and binding referendum. This backfired, because Leave supporter's views had hardened in the direction of a No Deal Brexit. They wanted Brexit done, even though a Labour government on 13th December 2019 would have given business the certainty it needed to trade with the EU as before, i.e. frictionless trade, zero tariffs and JIT components and food stuffs. The conduct of Parliament during this time was not a pretty sight, but it was parliamentary democracy as we have become accustomed to. Unfortunately, with the current model of political parties competing for power, policies and high principle often get brushed aside. Tory Remainers and Labour Leavers often voted against their conscience to tow the party line. Power became more important than principle. We can probably both agree that that is disgusting. Ironically, we have just left a parliament, with its jurisdiction now 20 miles away from our coast, that has no party system and which more often than not votes purely on the merits of legislation. Now that is what parliamentary democracy should be like. Also ironic, is the fact that until the Tories came to power in 2010, the UK had voted for legislation that gained approval, 95% of the time. We made the EU what it is. |
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I think that where we differ is that you have tightly bound the term "sovereignty" to the narrower concept of Parliamentary sovereignty, backing that up with the correct statement that our Parliament has unbounded power in the political sense.
Whereas I take the fuzzier view that people who wanted our sovereignty back did not consider that Parliament would exercise its sovereignty in such an antidemocratic way. Voters were well aware of Cameron's commitment to executing the Referendum result and had no idea that this commitment would be subverted by the use of parliamentary sovereignty. The general election cured the problem of parliamentary democracy and misuse of parliamentary sovereignty. I suspect that we are still Leaver vs Remainer in this semantic debate. |
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9324086.html
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kgAPwqhoHo The referendum was a travesty of democracy for the reason I gave above, but also for the way the Leave campaign deployed untruths to catch the wavering voter. The £350 million per week lie was one of many. Cummings has acknowledged that the lie on a bus won the referendum. Even today, 30% of Leavers believe the lie is true. The way the Remain campaign deployed expert analysis of the full range of possible outcomes of the full range of possible Brexit styles cannot be compared with the Leave campaign's distortion of reality appealing to our natural xenophobia with its declaration that we were being ruled by a bunch of foreigners in Brussels. Remain campaigners didn't deliver a dangerous appeal to racists and Islamaphobes. Farage was happy to tell us that our membership of the EU would lead to 70 million Turks and male Muslim refugees coming over here, armed with Kalashnikov rifles and raping our women and girls. Farage told us how Norway's rape incidents were far higher than ours and blamed Norway's acceptance of large numbers of refugees for it. He completely ignored the fact that Norway was a much broader definition of rape, as Assange learned to his cost. Here we see Farage's photoshopped image of refugees, which wasn't even taken in the place he said it was. https://www.google.com/search?q=brea...mgZr4VoXzHxmjM Democracy only works if the people have all the facts in front of them. We failed to provide them that. The way the referendum was conceived and deployed failed to deliver a democratic process up to the day of the binary referendum vote, leaving Parliament an angrily divided nation and no clue as to what kind of Brexit voters wanted. The following three years reflected that impossible conundrum. Parliamentary democracy didn't fail. Direct democracy failed. NB delegated democracy? Representative democracy surely. |
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You have just rekindled the representative vs direct democracy debate, which touches sovereignty particularly when parliamentary sovereignty pokes two fingers up to direct democracy. I would have thought that Brexit has introduced a tradition that the people are worth consulting and that ruling elites should be so guided. ---------- Post added at 09:56 ---------- Previous post was at 09:47 ---------- Quote:
‘Parliamentary democracy’ never occurred back then; only ‘parliamentary sovereignty’ happened. If you can’t see that then I’m worried. As to buses and lies, both sides exaggerated their claims. Well after all that was exposed, the GE settled matters; the people had not been deceived. ---------- Post added at 10:00 ---------- Previous post was at 09:56 ---------- ..... and btw, I am a Gina Miller fan. Everyone has the right to challenge government power in the courts. |
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Any hoo all the remainers treachery/ back stabbing /lies and scheming got them no where and democracy won the day albeit 3.5 years late. |
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On Gina Miller, everyone has the right to do what she did if she considered the guvmin to be acting unlawfully.
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If you really want Parliamentary democracy then you will have to argue for doing away with the party system, which is a whole other debate. Meanwhile both houses of Parliament did their best to democratically seek a solution to the hopeless puzzle the referendum left them. Because of the flaw of having a party system the whole process became as much about tribalism and political power as it was about making the best of the most fundamental change our country has had to deal with since WW2. You insist that our representatives in The Commons thrust two fingers in the face of the electorate. I have explained above why, over all, they did not. True the SNP, representing a nation that voted to Remain and the LibDems, sought to prevent Brexit, as did a minority of Tories and Labour MPs. However, both main parties had their own serious proposals for Brexit. Indeed Corbyn attracted the hostility and mistrust of Remainers for pushing his customs union Brexit. Not all binary referendums are inappropriate. A referendum on fox hunting or capital punishment would need to be binary. However, to make binary and complex referendums work, organisers must ensure that proper information is made available and that fake information is minimised. That certainly didn't happen in our referendum. To make it worse, a binary referendum, as we were warned would, in this case, create more problems than it solved. Our referendum result told Parliament that 48% of the electorate that voted wanted to Remain (clear enough) and that 52% wanted to Leave the EU, but not in which manner. As I explained above, even now, Parliament hasn't decided how we leave the EU. We have approved a political declaration and have formally left, but have no clue what our trading relationship will be. More uncertainty for commerce!! To avoid the last three years of uncertainty we should have had a referendum with more than one choice of how to leave the EU, ranging from, for example, EEA, Norway-style, a customs union Brexit, Canada ++ and No Deal. All the options would have the outcome of us being free of all the EU treaties. To avoid splitting the Leave vote there would have had to have been two ballot papers. Ballot 1, giving a clear choice between Leave and Remain and Ballot 2, using a system of one perhaps two transferable votes with second and third choices of Brexit styles coming into play in the case of no clear winner. The outcome, would have been a majority for Leave or Remain from Ballot 1 and a majority for a particular kind of Brexit from Ballot 2. The Leave campaign would not have been able to tempt waverers with a soft Brexit when they were clearly entrapping people to get a hard Brexit outcome. Instead the referendum campaign could have been an informed debate about the merits of one kind of Brexit or another and the comparative merits of Remain. Farage and others would have been forced to come clean about their intention to have a No Deal Brexit and would probably have had to reveal that the real motive for pushing for a referendum in the first place was to avoid the new EU rules on off-shore tax avoidance which finally came into EU practice on 31st January 2020. Phew! That was close! Yes, the GE has settled matters by allowing one point of view to prevail, but it has not settled the debate. Mostly due to Remain disarray, the Remain vote was split and the Brexit vote was focused on getting Johnson elected to 'get Brexit done, however, parties supporting a confirmatory referendum,collectively got more votes than the Tories, Brexit Ltd and UKIP got collectively. This closely reflected the poll of polls finding that a sustained majority of between 54% and 53% of voters wanted to Remain over a period of the last eighteen months. |
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You have over-analysed the meaning of democracy. The GE proved that people having heard 3+ years of explanation, settled for Brexit.
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It never ceases to amuse me how remainers cite polls post-referendum as proof things have changed, when the Leave campaign effectively shut up shop and stopped making the case for Leave in 2016 (and focused instead on lobbying to ensure the results were honoured), while the Remain campaign (or, at least, most of its senior members) continued promulgation of their warnings of dire doom and gloom, imminent catastrophe, failure to get a deal, etc etc etc. The chaos they and their placemen in the Commons (until 2019) concocted quite naturally worried a lot of people. They now brazenly use the fear they have created as evidence they are right. It’s nonsense on stilts.
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53% of the population don't want what 47% have gained for us. |
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You cannot win this part of the argument. What we must do is carry on and support the guvmin's efforts in realising the benefits for the UK they they are promising. |
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You are including the Lib Dem vote who had other ideas. Quote:
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The only fair indicator is the actual votes in the real referendum, conducted after an official, regulated campaign. You and I both know how that turned out and there’s really no point going over it again and again making pointless assertions about its fairness, veracity or permanence. It was what it was, we all understood the outcome was intended to be implemented, and it was. The end. |
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There was another relevant poll in December, which voted in a government to get the exit done.
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31st Jan was just a cosmetic party piece for the easily fooled. |
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Looks like the fishing question will be a sticking point. Remainers may well bleat that fishing is such a small part of our economy. But fishing waters are completely totemic to the matter of sovereignty.
We left the EU precisely because they are like this - grabbers, protectionists, schemers. |
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However the decision has been made, but I think some are going to be awfully disappointed when they realise what 'freedom' means in practice,; mostly freedom for our own Govt. to screw us over without fear of any check on them. It'll benefit a few toffs at the expense of the rest of us. |
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Reciprocal healthcare: Negotiable and is not a freedom; Workers' Rights: Not under threat. You're making that up. None have been lost. Consumer rights: Which? Easier Travel: Not a freedom; just a convenience, Trade: Is not a freedom. It is negotiable. Nasty EU. We're right to be shot of them. |
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Who next to blame though when there isn't a bright new dawn? Nasty Govt, Nasty homeless, Nasty BBC, Nasty Civil Service, Nasty Boris ?? The grass as we'll find isn't always greener. As part of a bigger economic unit we had protection and influence, now we have none. |
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We now need to get out into the world and do deals with them. We have a year to get something significant under our belt, not to mention that there is likely to be some sort of sensible deal with the EU if only to service their interests. What I want is for most of our foodstuffs to come from Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and so on. For Macron's arrogant fishing demands, I want him to be seriously stiffed. I still trust Germany to be sensible and its running dog France might well come to heel then. Stop bleating. |
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Canada - 3,000 miles away Australia - 9,500 miles away NZ - 11,500 miles away France - 20 miles Germany - 300 miles Italy - 750 miles Spain - 800 miles Not sure you’ve thought this fully through... ;) |
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All these are internal to the United Kingdom, which is a sovereign nation state that, in common with almost every other sovereign nation state on earth, is the final arbiter of what goes on in its own territory. Only within the bizarre experiment that is the EU has national sovereignty been so traduced (the process being obfuscated by nonsensical terms like “pooled sovereignty” in order to try to hide what’s been going on). I believe in this country and I simply lack the self-loathing instincts required to believe we need rescuing from our own government by an association of nations, almost all of which have been governed by a dictator within living memory. People who genuinely need rescuing from their own governments live in places where torture, extrajudicial punishment and corruption is endemic, if not industrial in scale. Such places undergo violent revolution sooner or later. Here in the UK, nothing could be further from the truth, and it requires a severe lack of perspective to think otherwise. ---------- Post added at 15:26 ---------- Previous post was at 14:54 ---------- A reminder to ALL forum members: when replying to a post, please do not put ANYTHING within quote tags except for content you are actually quoting. Do not put your reply to a quote within the quote. It needlessly messes up subsequent members’ ability to follow and contribute to threads within a discussion. |
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Canada - 3,000 miles away Top wheat, fish, beef. Australia - 9,500 miles away Top fruit, beef, wine. NZ - 11,500 miles away Top wine, lamb, butter,cheese. France - 20 miles Macron. Germany - 300 miles Possibly some hope there. Italy - 750 miles Up schmitt creek, nix paddle. Spain - 800 miles 25% youth unemployment when I last looked; Gibraltar. |
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Do the Italians and Greeks know about this? Maybe someone should let them know they're not screwed after all ;) |
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However, in today’s economies, 75% of Australia and NZ food exports go to China, East Asia, and the Oceanic countries (including USA) - do you really believe it makes economic sense to ship things 10,000 miles around the world when you have existing profitable markets closer to hand. |
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It’s not always profitable. Cane sugar from the Americas is (or would be) far cheaper than European grown beet sugar, but EU tariffs are designed to protect beet producers, which are mostly located in northern continental Europe (and most of that in France and Germany). Prior to our entry into the EU most sugar refined in the UK came from cane. There’s no reason why that shouldn’t resume, now we are no longer obligated to subscribe to Franco-German protectionism that is the very heart of the European project.
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Seriously ... did you think the corn laws were a good idea? Keeping staple food prices artificially high to protect domestic producers is as absurd now as it ever was. |
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But Cane Sugar from the Americas is already tariff free - the Least Developed Countries (LDC) and African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries trading under Everything but Arms (EBA) have unrestricted, tariff-free imports of raw sugar into the EU.
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As you appear to have copied from here ... https://www.ragus.co.uk/tariffs-on-sugars-explained/ ... I think I might charitably suggest you have oversimplified it to the point of misunderstanding it. The vast majority of sugar cane is produced in Brazil, imports of which attract tariffs from €98 to €419 per tonne, depending on how refined it is, and what sort of refining it is intended for. The LDC countries barely register as cane producers on a global scale. Also, would you mind clarifying: do you think it’s a good thing to use tariffs to protect domestic food production, even when this pushes up food prices for consumers? |
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Keep on topic please.
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As Paul has already said - please stick to the topic. This is not an all-purpose politics thread. Two completely off topic posts removed.
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https://sugaralliance.org/brazils-2-...s-exposed/4412 I made the point about the Caribbean sugar imports because that's where we imported a lot of sugar from in the 50s. (and the reason I didn't provide a link previously, is that I was putting my grandson back to bed at the same time, and he distracted me - sorry). Yes, I think we should subsidise our home production, otherwise we become dependent on imports, which can so so badly wrong. ---------- Post added at 12:48 ---------- Previous post was at 12:13 ---------- On a separate note... https://www.cityam.com/boris-bridge-...o-10-confirms/ Quote:
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garden_Bridge |
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For the company I work for, we are 'no deal' ready with the IT and customs infrastructure in place as we have obviously come close a couple of times already. The big unknowns are what effects customs holdups will be and being able to get a good handle on resourcing needed in terms of people and time |
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Has the penny dropped yet?
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The proposed UK tariff schedule in front of the WTO is about 1.6% weighted mean which would put us 18th on this measure of protectionism. There are plenty of less protectionist countries than the UK including some quite big players such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Mexico and Chile EDIT - source material - https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/ind...AR.ZS/rankings |
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Oh dear, what a pity, never mind ! :D |
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Whingers will blame anything when put out. |
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https://www.motimahal.nl/ |
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I went to Spain last week ......no issues. Even went through the “ EU” channel.
Will be going to France next month and expect zero issues. I suggest, along with the thousands that have travelled since the end of January this is the case. |
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Btw, regarding financial services. That’ll sort itself out. Euro land is most wobbly - nothing to back the Euro up now. The world is unlikely to trust Euroland as a main financing centre. Colin - stop whinging. |
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The EU needs us far more.
Plus put the Royal Navy in our fishing waters and kick out any fishing vessels we want. Especially thos big buggers that can take the entire stock with one sweep. |
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EU's requirements don't seem to be going down too well with BoJo. To the Government's credit, it's made a strong case but the UK has handed the negotiating edge to the EU by insisting upon a December deadline.
https://news.sky.com/story/boris-joh...nable-11935283 So, maybe the obvious thing would be for the UK to ramp up relationships with other countries, to put some pressure on the EU? The opposite has happened! Quote:
Maybe like the EU does, the rest of world just needs to understand that need us more than we need them, and they'll have to come knocking on our door? |
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