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Carney is staying: https://www.ft.com/content/5107a124-...e-abe238dee8e2
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So any free trade deal would have to cover all industries. |
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Bank of England governor Mark Carney says he will step down in June 2019.
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So later than the Brexiters wanted but earlier than his full term.
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I think he should be supported and not sniped at. In supporting him, we will be supporting the UK economy and hopefully the Pound can start to climb back up from its current 31-year low. But I admit that every time I hear Theresa May saying he has her full confidence, he sounds like a football manager who's about to be sacked. For the sake of the UK, I hope he stays. [Edited at 21:17 - correction from Mike to Mark, credit to eagle-eyed papa smurf] |
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And the government need experts who actually know what they are talking about rather than sabre rattling rhetoric Considering he is from Ye old British empire you would of thought brexiteers would approve |
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EU countries enticing companies to relocate from the UK
Japanese companies in UK 'already receiving offers from EU' "Japanese companies based in Britain have already started to receive offers from other European countries and could postpone investment decisions if the government fails to negotiate a close economic relationship with the EU. That was the stark warning of Haruki Hayashi, president of the Japanese chambers of commerce in Britain and the European CEO of Mitsubishi [makers of Princes canned fish, Branston baked beans and Batchelor's soup] who said businesses needed more than “general reassurances” if his country’s investment presence in Britain was to be maintained." https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ness-secretary France 'to appoint Brexit team to lure British banks away from UK after EU withdrawal' "France will set up a special task force of corporate leaders and politicians aimed at luring businesses and talents from London as the UK prepares to leave the EU. The news comes after Paris’ financial district has unveiled an advertising campaign aimed to underscore the attractiveness of the French capital for business in the wake of the Leave vote with the slogan: “Tired of the fog? Try the frogs. Choose Paris La Defense”. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7388881.html |
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Honestly some brexiters make me embarassed to have voted leave as they are turning on anyone and everyone that isn't screaming support 24\7, mark carney has done a good job since taking over and I'm sure he's more then earning his salary right now helping steer the UK. Just because someone isn't constantly stating support doesn't make them any less competent or valuable and for that small group of rabid brexiters remember the tale of boris fervent supporter and campaigner for brexit during the campaign and completely selfish using the country for his own ends at the end of it. Not all that is brexit is necessarily good and there is benefit in some people not getting dragged into it.
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To be fair a lot of the criticism comes from Micheal Gove whose never met an expert who knows more about their domain than he does.
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I liked this article this morning: https://www.ft.com/content/5dc6fd46-...e-abe238dee8e2
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"Interest rates will go up. I meant down. No, up. Down. Up. Doh".
On the bright side when we can finally shoehorn him out of his cushy, overpaid job, he can go home and manage the newly signed EU/Canadian trade deal. The one that doesn't insist on free movement of people... |
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Britain will discover that distance still matters in trade
"...Not only have so-called gravity models of trade shown that the distance to a trading partner and the size of its economy matter for goods but, remarkably, they also reveal that the same seems to be true for services. The negative effect of distance on trade has been evident for decades, even if economists struggled to explain its persistence. The ubiquity of the standard shipping container, the computerisation of transport logistics and the digitisation of production processes, enabling dispersed economies to be woven into a single supply chain, have not reduced the importance of proximity. The standard analysis for goods is that each doubling of distance with a trading partner halves trade between them. A survey of Canadian services exports found that each 1 per cent increase in distance with a trading partner reduced trade by a third. The International Monetary Fund, which generated some estimates for the UK, found that the effect of distances on services trade was even higher than for goods." https://www.ft.com/content/964afa06-...8-d3778b55a923 |
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nice link to a paywall |
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Canada's a population of 36m and a long way away so possibly not a major EU export market. |
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The French are making noises in order to influence our negotiating position and if they weren't we'd all be greatly surprised. They're going to make all sorts of gestures to try to undermine what our govt. is trying to negotiate on our behalf. The banks will be playing that game too just as they have done in the past in order to influence government regulation here. It's laughable really - it wasn't that long ago that an awful lot of people were saying let the banks sod off given the massive mess they created. Now we're once again being scared into thinking that they'll do it. They won't leave in droves because the EU will always be a less profitable and more highly regulated market for them to operate in. That's what the EU is at it's core - more regulated, more bureaucratic and more expensive to operate within. I think we all need to remember that there are huge banking problems in store within the EU and when they come to the fore again everyone will be banging on about how toxic all these banks are. At that point the French will no doubt start going on about more stringent controls/taxes and how it's bankers who caused all the world's ills as opposed to politicians who created the flawed regulatory framework they exploited and cooked the books to allow Greece into their silly club. I dare say Hollande (if he lasts that long) will then claim they'll be seeking compensation from us for the role the City of London played back in the lead up to 2008. Maybe we'll even be timid enough to pay them off rather than telling them where to go... Alternatively May could organise some overtures to all those French companies suffering badly right now, reminding them that life's a lot cheaper and simpler in the UK. This is negotiating at it's very best and it's going to continue for some time so we can expect companies as well as countries to try to exploit the situation to secure price rises etc. for the very same reason. The UK needs to remain strong and not be panicked into anything which ends up with us snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. |
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Don't celebrate Justin Trudeau signing the Ceta deal with the EU – like TTIP, it is a ticking time bomb This toxic trade deal has been subject to the same massive protest movement that greeted TTIP. Nearly 3.5 million Europeans said they didn’t want either deal and there are hundreds of TTIP and CETA-free local authorities across Europe http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...-a7388841.html |
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Nissan deal 'won't persuade others to invest'
This important adviser recommended Nissan build its plant in the UK. What does he say now? "Until that final shape of the UK is clear, we will have to hold the investment decisions." What does he have to say about Nissan's recent decision? "I don't think other companies will follow suit." Quite an enlightening interview. I would have expected other companies to follow Nissan's lead. More details http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37835797 |
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He also said, "We don't have enough information to make a prudent judgement."
As a strategist, I'd not expect him to say anything else. |
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http://digiday.com/publishers/financ...subscriptions/ |
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As I explained, I wasn't aware it was now such a complicated set-up or would have clarified how to read the article...which is to cut and paste the link into Google. I'm sorry about any inconvenience this has caused but hopefully this has provided a good opportunity to show how non-subscribers can read FT articles. |
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Inflation could soar to 4% next year amid impact of Brexit says the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
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Perhaps you would like to re-submit your post Mr K, without the cheap insulting / provocative remarks this time !
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http://news.sky.com/story/cbi-slashe...rexit-10641203 Going well isn't it ? Inflation up to 4%, economy stumbling. The reason Brexiters don't like Carney is because he reminds them how 'foolish' they've been. better? ;) |
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Stop talking down your country. |
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Would supporters of Brexit have shut up about the flaws in the EU had Remain won? Thrown themselves into the European Project wholeheartedly? Of course not nor should they have. Democracy allows dissenting views and the idea Brexit would put an end to this argument is mistaken. |
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Restricting your commentary to the latest speculation about how badly wrong everything is about to go, is not acceptance, it is denial. |
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Personally I am impacted by the fall in Sterling. My own incentive is not to hope it crashes so I can go 'I told you so' but for that to stop. |
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The problem with that idea Damien is that any of the 48% that could take part in the brexit process are completely committed to us remaining in the EU and that's the only option as far as their concerned. Including them will create far more problems then it might solve and they would do everything possible to subvert the referendum.
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There was a 72% turnout at the referendum, meaning those that voted in favour only represented 37% of the electorate. That ignores those that aren't registered to vote, mostly the young who this will affect most. If you take the UK population as a whole only 27% voted to leave. The mandate is far from convincing.
The problem for Brexiters is they are only now just waking up the economic results of their decision. However they'd have to admit they'd been duped, which no one wants to do. It isn't totally their fault, we've become so cynical about politicians/dodgy dossiers that no one believes the figures they spout at elections/referendums. However this time some of them were right. |
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I think it's a mistake the way the Government seem to have chosen a very confrontational approach to those who lost the referendum as if it were a landslide. They seemed to delight in stirring the worst fears of Remainers such as refusing to guarantee the status of EU workers which, since they almost certainly will be ok, was just pointlessly provocative. There will be hard Remainers that will stop at nothing but that's not the bulk of the 48%. Many are normal people with concerns about their jobs, pensions and so on. They should be brought on board and not dismissed as Remoaners. I believe most people Brexit or Remain are very similar and want similar things, the ideologues are a minority in both camps. We've seen in Scotland what happens when you make the issue all-or-nothing and I think May's conference speech was the equivalent of Cameron's speech the morning after the Independence vote. A spurned opportunity to call for a consensus in favor of appeasing to your base. |
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And as a hard-line remainer who is clearly in deep denial, I don't think I'll be paying too much attention to your claims to know what those of us who voted leave are thinking or feeling right now. |
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Perhaps that has to work both ways, with derogatory names like 'remoaners' being deemed inappropriate as well, as well as calling people 'traitors' if they don't fully subscribe to others' views?
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There seems to be a lot of anger on here, manly from people trying to convince themselves mostly that they made the right choice.
The 'hard Brexit' route we seem to be hell bent on is burying heads in the sand even more. The figures for the decision don't add up, heart has ruled the head for many. |
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Just out of interest, I have checked if there is a definition of Remoaner yet... It's been added to the Urban dictionary, it comes up with the following:- Quote:
It's just like when someone is constantly not happy about something, they are classed as a moaner, again, to insult is not implied, i.e no malice intention. |
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In lighter news, Brexit could block a reunion of The Smiths!
http://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/6546...r-eu-nationals |
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"I promised a referendum and I got a referendum and heaven knows I'm miserable now..." |
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Angela Merkel's top economic advisors tell her to STOP BREXIT claiming it ISN'T done deal
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...ain-leaving-EU The German Chancellor Angela Merkel was handed a report on Wednesday by her top economic advisers urging her and other European politicians to block Britain from exiting - despite the country’s referendum result. In a move which Brexiteers will see as outrageous meddling in the June 23 referendum result for Britain to exit the EU, the German Council of Economic Experts also warned that, in its view, leaving the bloc was not a done deal. The annual report said the European Union will not be better off without Britain. It stated: “The German Council of Economic Experts calls for constructive negotiations to prevent an exit, or at the least to come to an agreement that minimizes the damage on both sides.” |
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They can say what they want us leaving the EU is a done deal and the government has confirmed that, what it shows is that certain germans do support a balanced settlement between the UK and the EU a view that isn't only in Germany. I know it's the in thing to talk down the UK and get all enthusiastic about any potential bad economic news but the UK's bargaining position is stronger then many realise and the government is aware of that hence the tough rhetoric. They will be interesting negotiations with sabre rattling on both sides for the first twelve months the final agreement will be finalised in the second year.
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Even the most ardent Brexiter has said from the beginning that they (myself included) expected this in the short term and it was a price we were prepared to pay to rid this country of the EU shackles. |
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If you can't debate without resorting to childish names then why bother? |
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http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/sh...24&postcount=3 |
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...medium=twitter
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Many have said that there will be no bad effects "I've seen nothing rise in price so it's not happening" is one comment I've heard. Others have said a recession is highly likely. Only this week, Crispin Odey, a leave campaigner said this. So documenting changes in the economy, both good and bad helps us to understand the situation better. |
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The Government has lost the case on Article 50: https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/s...18615322820608
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March deadline might be a bit close too although there is still a possible appeal.
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If they appeal and lose, then it goes to Parliament. What then? If sufficient MPs vote against, directly overruling their constituents in many cases, May's next obvious move is to call an election. I wouldn't fancy being a Labour MP under those circumstances, and there might be one or two nervous arch-Europhile Tories as well.
A general election in early 2017 would be an absolute gift to UKIP under Paul Nuttall also. No, I think if they find themselves faced with the reality of overturning Brexit, most MPs will find their instinct for self preservation kicking in. |
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Not such a done deal now is it......
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Brexiteers are touchingly terrified of the Parliamentary sovereignty they supposedly champion
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As Boris Johnson said last night at The Spectator Awards, "Brexit will be a Titanic success"
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Parliamentarians represent us, and if we're not happy with their representations we replace them. They know this. I think we may find, in the coming weeks, that a lot of MPs who were happy to blow hard about the necessity of a vote as long as they thought they weren't actually going to get one, will start moderating their tone. Remainers are still touchingly unaware that they were in a minority last June and, according to polls, still are. |
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The worry about Parliament is that they'll want details of the plan before voting to issue Article 50 which the Government wanted to do. Most people don't think they'll vote it down.
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Parliament may vote according to what their local constituents want. In my area it is very pro remain so does my MP vote to the country or to his constituents? Have some people changed their minds now we have a downturn in economy (that may have happened anyway)?
I pity the poor MP's who are now going to get flooded with letters from both sides to vote their way. Do they vote with the nation or with their area or with their own beliefs or party line? Personally I think they should follow the national will in this but then I support leaving. |
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National will: Brexit.
Most MPs constituencies: Brexit. |
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Will be interesting to see how this impacts the Richmond by-election. Zac Goldsmith is popular with his constituents but 72% of them voted to remain in the EU.
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Well the gov has confirmed it will appeal to the Supreme Court so we'll have to see what happens next.
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The Government should just call the vote imo.
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I don't think they can, not now the question is open. A court ruling limiting the Royal Prerogative isn't something the government can just leave halfway up the court system. The prerogative is, essentially, the means by which the British government gets away with doing anything that hasn't been explicitly authorised by Parliament. If it's a critical constitutional issue - and it is - then it has to be pursued to the end. The outcome is likely to be cited in any and every future challenge to the boundary between the powers of Crown and Parliament so it has to be settled decisively now.
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The problem is that Parliament want to debate the strategy etc relating to A50 thereby weaking our hand in any Brexit negotiations, that's why it was taken to court. |
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For all those who've been banging on about how May needs to get on with this, well this decision isn't going to help and we all know what uncertainty results in. I think we're in danger of undermining the UK's interests to such an extent that the result is the worst of both worlds as opposed to the best. I dare say, also, that there'll be those who take perverse 'satisfaction' from the fact that they helped make it happen because from the midst of the resulting economic damage they'll be able to whine on about how 'we told you so'...
The fact is that what's going on right now is making the UK appear weak to the very people we need to be negotiating with and who from anyone reading this would opt for that approach in their own personal or business lives I wonder?... :shrug: |
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