Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

The calculation is not about the need of the country. It's about what will keep BoJo in power a bit longer.
Damien's post explains the situation rationally and quite clearly.

---------- Post added at 22:11 ---------- Previous post was at 22:06 ----------

"Old Boy and I have correctly analysed..." is what I meant by self-marking.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

To add - I hope that this analysis is wrong. I hope BoJo does what he did before, namely concede at the last minute. He can concede on a level playing field and be seen to win on fishing, thus allowing the Express to declare victory. Farage will continue to moan, naturally, but he has carved a niche career out of doing so.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Yeah ... I think anyone who thinks the level playing field will be conceded to any significant degree really hasn’t been paying attention. Dynamic Alignment, which is what the EU would like the LPF to mean, amounts to EU directive by fax; single market rules made in Brussels, sent to London to be automatically applied to our statute book as the price of our access to their single market. This is problematic for a number of reasons. First, we take rules, without having influenced their drafting; second, they apply to domestic trade, not just to stuff exported to the EU (as is the case now); third they dent our ability to negotiate independently with third parties for mutual access to our markets; fourth, the EU has form for defining very broadly what single market regulation looks like. It’s a recipe for continued EU mission creep right across our statute book.

Dynamic alignment neutralises many of the main advantages of us leaving the EU, while scoring the EU the major win of imposing rules on us that could never have been drafted in the same way had we been in the room.

I have no problem with the EU being as bureaucratic, centralising and absurd as it likes with its own rules in its own market place. I do have a problem with us continuing to suffer for it.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

I'm saying here that the space for a deal is on agreeing to a level playing field. This is my optimistic scenario as we can't fight geoeconomics so will have to do something similar anyway at some stage so why worsen our suffering economy? The pessimistic scenario is as outlined by Damien with Boris too afraid to take on the hardine Brexiters in his party.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Absolutely get the issues although only Pritti Patel's calculator would calculate a 5%-10% uplift in GDP as suffering for it. ;)

I don't think it's impossible for BoJo to agree to a deal along the level-playing-field lines at the last minute. He stitched up the DUP over the border in the Irish Sea so he had form here.
How well he would honour such an agreement is open to question but he would probably enjoy stirring up the benchbenchers in the event of later confrontations with the EU.

It's the subsequent political impact of no deal outside the Conservative Party that would encourage a climbdown on BoJo's part.

He knows the chaos and negative economic impact especially in the Red Wall seats and the country is poorly prepared for such an eventuality according to the logistics and transport sector. It would hand Sturgeon a cherished majority and a successful vote for independence. Sir Keir would grill a confused BoJo every Wednesday before wearied, BoJo would hand the keys for No 10 to Sunak who would send a chastened Frost back to Brussels to sort out a deal aligning us more closely to the EU. From a position of weakness and even smaller population given Scotland's likely independence in the event of no deal.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

No point using anyone using a calculator when simple guesswork is involved.

Boris conceding to the EU will cause more grief than you can imagine . . Farage is waiting in the wings to lead his army once again if the need arises ;)

Keir is all talk with no substance, and Sunak is too clever to get himself the keys to No 10 until after the dust has settled.

Scotlands likely independence has the same chance as trains running on time.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Other trade deals will not carry an expectation that we sign up to the laws of their countries and give up our territorial waters!

Several trade deals are nearing completion, including Australia and Japan. No such problems with them.

---------- Post added at 09:02 ---------- Previous post was at 09:01 ----------

Wrong again. It's about honouring the result of the EU referendum and carrying out the clear mandate of the government.

---------- Post added at 09:04 ---------- Previous post was at 09:02 ----------

A level playing field equates to taking EU laws, it seems. That ain't going to happen.

---------- Post added at 09:10 ---------- Previous post was at 09:04 ----------

But it's not a basis for a deal! This puts us in a worse place than being part of the EU!! Why can you not see that?

We will not be a slave to the EU, and if that's what you believe, you are sadly mistaken. The British people will not stand for that.

You are, it seems, obsessed with geoeconomics, which is not as relevant as it used to be. The EU is convenient as it is close, but it is not the be all and end all.

Sorry, Andrew, but your scenario is not optimistic at all - it is defeatist.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

The trains are currently running on time, but no one's on them. I can't see much changing to alter Scots' views on independence.
A fair summary for BoJo is he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. But in Sunak'a case, you cannot chose when you inherit
Sir Keir is not in power but is a substantive opposition leader with an enviable track record of fighting criminals and terrorists. Thereby making him a hard character to criticise if you position yourself as a party of law and order.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Head Goverment Lawyer has resigned over the 'rowing back' of the NI agreement: https://www.ft.com/content/6186bf1c-...3-4eea763e1b94

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

If your lawyer is working for the other side,it's best to get rid.


None paywall version https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...-over-22647171

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Wow! That's a damning inditement of the current government isn't it?

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

A non-paywall link would be nice.