Cable Forum - Brexit (Old)

How do you make that out? The trade deal will replace the withdrawal agreement, which is what they are negotiating now. Is two years an eternity to you?

LOL, that's the real absurdity. The Trade issue they haven't really talked about, and it's the main Brexit issue ! Do you really think that will be easy ?! We'll be in the Customs Union/'transition' forever, a second class EU country. We'll apply to rejoin within the next decade, suspect we may be told where to go !

Pierre

22-11-2018 08:50

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35971938)

Ah, but that vote or lack thereof means you are never to be allowed to change your mind and vote next time, or vote differently to last time, according to some, because they are adamant there cannot be a next time.

Old saying - A week is a long time in politics, so never can mean maybe or soon or in due course, or as parliament feels at the time.

There can be a next time, in around 40-50 years or so. That was the time between the last two referendums

Angua

22-11-2018 09:19

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35971956)

There can be a next time, in around 40-50 years or so. That was the time between the last two referendums

Not n my lifetime then. Nor in the lifetime of a huge number of people who may not have voted or who would like to vote differently given a second chance.

But hey, so long as the minority of the electorate who chose to vote and have not changed their mind in the meantime get what they want, seems to be it. With the deal May appears to have negotiated, we will end up with worse than we have now for an indeterminate period. Please tell me who voted for this?

jfman

22-11-2018 09:29

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35971959)

That’s the problem when people vote on social ideals, or intangible ideas, rather than economic ones.

jonbxx

22-11-2018 09:30

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35971933)

Or maybe it's a bit of theatre. Saturday rolls around and suddenly the deal is off! Panic stations. Gloomy leaks from No 10. Dire warnings from EU leaders. Too far apart, it's all going wrong. Late night sessions into the early hours of Sunday, the meeting won't happen. Until a last minute deal! She did it! That was hard. Surely Parliament can't vote against it now since it's clear this is the best we can get?

I did wonder this myself! So much is about the optics, what things look like rather than what they actually are. If Theresa May comes back with more concessions or at least appears to have, then that's a 'win', we've given Johnny Foreigner a bloody nose, the taste of British steel and resolve, and all that.

Dave42

22-11-2018 10:35

Re: Brexit

EU and UK officials agree draft political declaration on future relationship

https://news.sky.com/story/eu-and-uk...eport-11560120

ianch99

22-11-2018 13:00

Re: Brexit

The Spectator has posted a "legal" analysis from a QA on Mays deal:

May’s Brexit deal: the legal verdict

Quote:

At present, the EU treaties give us the right to withdraw on two years’ notice — a right we are currently exercising. But this new deal would lock us in with no right to leave at all, and destroy any benefits of the freedom of action which Brexit should give us. It would not let us forge our own trade policy with other parts of the world. It would not make our economy more competitive. It would not give us back control of our laws. This is not a bad deal. It is an atrocious deal.

It is quite damning but I guess this is a right of centre media web site.

So MP's really have to decide if the analysis of the Spectator is correct and so vote the TM Deal down or that the TM Deal represents the best of a bad situation ..

Carth

22-11-2018 13:25

Re: Brexit

well . . . if I was paid £77k (minimum) a year I wouldn't be that concerned about whichever deal we ended up with, especially if I came out looking as though I'd done the best I could and was almost guaranteed the £77k for another few years :rolleyes:

OLD BOY

22-11-2018 13:35

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35971950)

Can I quote you on that in a couple of years?

Hugh	22-11-2018 13:57

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35971977)

The Spectator has posted a "legal" analysis from a QA on Mays deal:

May’s Brexit deal: the legal verdict

It is quite damning but I guess this is a right of centre media web site.

So MP's really have to decide if the analysis of the Spectator is correct and so vote the TM Deal down or that the TM Deal represents the best of a bad situation ..

The QC is Martin Howe, who writes opinion pieces for

Lawyers for Britain
Briefings for Brexit
Brexit Central

and wants to scrap the Human Rights Act, so I am fairly confident that his view is not completely unbiased...

btw, it’s one lawyer’s view, not the ‘legal’ view - it is not a consensus view confirming a legal position.

heero_yuy

22-11-2018 14:23

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Quote from Conservativehome:

Stand Up for Brexit has now gained 54 backers – Tim Loughton being the most recent, declaring his support yesterday.

On paper, that’s 54 Tory votes against Theresa May’s deal, since at least one of the campaign’s three objections to her plans still stands: “the backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK”.

In practice, of course, not all of them may do so. Fewer than 54 may actually vote against the agreement as it stands. (Our current calculation is that a minimum of 31 Conservative MPs will go into the opposition lobby.)

Tim Loughton is our local MP.

With the rest of the opposition parties whipping their MPs to vote May's deal down it looks like it's about to get sunk whether the DUP support her or not.

Then it gets interesting.

Hugh	22-11-2018 14:34

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35971989)

Well, the ERG said they had 48 letters, and it turned out to be counterfactual, so perhaps, just perhaps, people are blowing smoke up fundaments...

Mr K	22-11-2018 15:16

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35971983)

Can I quote you on that in a couple of years?

Yes you may :)

OLD BOY

22-11-2018 16:17

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35971990)

Well, the ERG said they had 48 letters, and it turned out to be counterfactual, so perhaps, just perhaps, people are blowing smoke up fundaments...

What we don't know is how many Labour MPs will defy the Whip and vote with the Conservatives.

nomadking

22-11-2018 16:20

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35971947)

How do you make that out? The trade deal will replace the withdrawal agreement, which is what they are negotiating now. Is two years an eternity to you?

And what happens at the end of that period? Same situation as now. The EU won't negotiate anything as they know May and Corbyn will capitulate to them.

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