Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

I am disabled and can only walk less than 40 yards so the option to start walking is impossible for me, the bus or train station is too far for me.

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

Nothing like Mr K's obsession with generalising and stereotyping everybody again.

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

Yes, you missed out the bit on my post where I said there'd have to be exceptions for those that genuinely couldn't get around.

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

My apologies for missing that point.

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

Petrol / Diesel ban - How do they know that they will be in power in 2040 in order to decide this? Or has it already been decided by someone with more authority than whoever might be in power?

I'm not against the idea, but I would imagine they will want to make sure everyone is properly tagged, tracked and in the shiny new national carbon / battery rental / "energy-usage database" before all the rest of the vehicles are allowed to be electric-only. That is to say - if car ownership is even a thing by then. They will probably try to outlaw private vehicle ownership entirely, eventually - that is if self-driving electric taxis become cost-effective enough before electric vehicles are allowed to reach maximum penetration.

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

It won't be legislated for in 2040. The laws will be passed now, or at some point in the near future, and they will rest on the statute book until then. A future government that did not want to meet the target would have to ask Parliament to repeal the law. While that is entirely possible to do, it is very unlikely that another party would want to make itself look so environmentally irresponsible.

There will be no need anyway. France also plans to phase out fossil fuel cars by 2040 and Norway's going to do it by 2025. Other countries will follow.

Electric cars are about to go mainstream. VW is now promising an electric golf by 2020 with a range of up to 375 miles, priced so as to be within the "family car" price bracket. Once there is a decent choice of electric family cars with useful range, the rest will follow quite quickly.

There won't be a massive, sudden scrappage scheme on 31 December 2039. By then, almost all fossil fuel cars will have been off the road for years. 2040 is the end point of a process that has already started.

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

I can see this moving road pricing up the agenda as a mechanism to replace the lost VAT and duty on fossil fuels for cars. Could get expensive for those who do large annual mileage.

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

It's going to get a lot more expensive for everyone who drives but that'll happen when we have no choice. The future of transport doesn't include more freedom for all of us it involves less. There's clearly an environmental argument here but that I believe is what's going to happen. Of course the great and the good will need their exemptions from anything onerous...

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

Road charging will be by GPS built into the engine management system or by ANPR. I cannot see any other option as they will not be able to separate what you use to charge your car and what you use for normal household usage.

I can also see different charges for time of the day, roads driven on and god forbid automatic speeding fines as the gps can report you speed verses the known road speed :(

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

What's going to replace fuel tax is a trivial problem. That isn't going to cause the biggest issues in the future. The problem is going to be automation. So many jobs are going to be taken by automation that if we're not careful all this income will funnel up to the people who own the technology.

Self-driving cars are an example. We're very close to self-driving trunks being able to do the bulk of long-distance freight. In the near term they'll require drivers for the 'last mile', driving the trunks from stop-off points to their location on the side roads but otherwise they can probably drive themselves.

In the slightly longer term we may well have 'cars as a service'. Uber without the human drivers. You wouldn't need to own a car and instead just call one up via a Uber-style app on your phone/watch/voice activated device. The lack of a human driver and the fact the car could run continually would make this far more cost-effective per person than owning a car but the companies that run it would earn a fortune. Just think how inefficient cars are now. Most people have their cars sitting idle the majority of the time, doing nothing. It's a waste of money and space. Instead fewer cars can service more people at a fraction of the cost.

All of that is without mentioning how bizarre it may seem in future that we trusted these fast metal machines to humans with our slow human brains and lack of ability to coordinate in a wider network.

That's where all the money will go. Fuel tax would be nothing compared to that.

Not to mention that there will be a "percieved security risk" to allowing "private individuals" to own and operate "dangerous" motor vehicles in an increasingly pedestrianised and self-driving society, together with the environmental red scare, creating the perfect excuse to clamp down on freedom of movement.

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

I think people will look back at the fact humans drove cars, making all the decisions themselves, as bizarre. Our reaction times are poor, we're unpredictable and we have really primitive ways of expressing our intentions to each other. A computer can make instant decisions and can network in to know what every other car is doing. They could speed along way in excess of 100mph and still know what each car around them, for miles, will do. They could make constant minor changes in speed to adjust for the action of cars miles ahead.

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

Nail on head Damien. Personal ownership of a car will disappear, busses will become self drive (if their continued existence is justified).

Wagon drivers will only still exist as shunters at best and that won't continue for long.

It won't stop there either, millions of jobs will disappear as AI and other technology replaces the need for human employees.

This then poses a problem for corporate business, albeit theoretical ATM.

Corporate business has drastically cut it's labour costs (the bean counters are going to be happy).

Now however because the population cannot earn money due to the dearth of employment corporate business starts losing money because people aren't buying their products. How can they? They've all been sacked and replaced with machines!

Oh how future technology will benefit us.

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

Problem with this notion is there's no responsibility, you'll always need a bum on a seat to take the blame when something goes tragically wrong

And yet driverless cars have already killed someone, it had done 250k miles iirc, how many people have you killed in your last 250 000 miles Damien

inquirer/news/2463487/man-killed-in-tesla-self-driving-car-cras



Universal basic income will mean we all keep on buying stuff we don't need, Switzerland just rejected the idea

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-marxist-dream

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 

In a future world where automation means there is no need of human employees (or very few jobs where needed) how is the population to survive?

No money = no food on the table. No work = no money. Catch 22.