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denphone 16-04-2020 10:26

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36031778)
Very good, Hugh, but I don't buy it. When you think that one person coming into this country was responsible for causing this explosion of cases in the UK, there is no reason to suppose that the plateau will actually result in less cases than the peak. It will just mean that instead of a bigger rise in cases followed by a sharp fall, we will get a longer period of plateau, followed by a gradual fall. Some scientists think that there could even be several plateaux or mini-peaks as restrictions are eased.

So many people are underestimating the infectiousness of this disease and don't really grasp the principle of herd immunity. We are just buying time here so the NHS can cope. The virus will carry on infecting people until it has infected about 80% of us, many not knowing they have been infected.

The 'cure' will come when this has all fizzled out to a few isolated cases here and there.

Any possible cure will come when we have a workable vaccine end of...

Hugh 16-04-2020 10:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36031780)
That would be some lynching party if that was revealed ;)

And if they didn't know they were carriers?

Sephiroth 16-04-2020 10:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Have you noticed how irrelevant the EU has been to Cornavirus? The EU fans may say something about ventilator procurement, but we seem to be doing alright in that department.

Btw, Hugh's diagram is an important message.


papa smurf 16-04-2020 10:44

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36031783)
And if they didn't know they were carriers?

Ignorance is no defense ;)

tweetiepooh 16-04-2020 11:04

Re: Coronavirus
 
The EU and anything like that should be irrelevant. The virus doesn't respect borders so neither should treatment. It's to the advantage of both the EU members and non-members to stop spread. If you've contained things in your country you now help contain it elsewhere so it doesn't come back to your country.

It's why we should help other nations now, especially those that can't afford "stuff" and often have large populations in very high density quarters. (Generations living in one single room - try self isolating there) People who earn daily what they need daily.

jfman 16-04-2020 11:04

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36031778)
Very good, Hugh, but I don't buy it. When you think that one person coming into this country was responsible for causing this explosion of cases in the UK, there is no reason to suppose that the plateau will actually result in less cases than the peak. It will just mean that instead of a bigger rise in cases followed by a sharp fall, we will get a longer period of plateau, followed by a gradual fall. Some scientists think that there could even be several plateaux or mini-peaks as restrictions are eased.

So many people are underestimating the infectiousness of this disease and don't really grasp the principle of herd immunity. We are just buying time here so the NHS can cope. The virus will carry on infecting people until it has infected about 80% of us, many not knowing they have been infected.

The 'cure' will come when this has all fizzled out to a few isolated cases here and there.

You’ve got absolutely no evidence to support your hunch that these measures are having no effect on the outcome. Indeed, we’ve the entire capitalist system betting billions that it will.

Herd immunity is just Darwinism. You’re proposing to let people die to everyone left over doesn’t have the disease. We could extend that principle to plenty of illnesses - yet don’t.

Chris 16-04-2020 11:08

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36031782)
Any possible cure will come when we have a workable vaccine end of...

A vaccine isn't a cure. At the population scale, it is a means of artificially inducing herd immunity. Herd immunity is the only way to keep a virus from moving freely through a population.

We can't say for sure that natural herd immunity will be possible with this Coronavirus; it might be susceptible to rapid mutation, thereby bypassing our acquired immune response, or it may be of a type that only provokes a weak and not very persistent immune response in humans. If either of those turns out to be the case, then an ongoing vaccination programme will be necessary, probably going on for years until we can induce immunity to new strains almost as fast as the virus can produce them.

On the other hand, we still do not yet have sufficient data to know if those things will happen. It is quite possible that we could get herd immunity within a year or two.

In any case, neither herd immunity nor a vaccine is a cure.

tweetiepooh 16-04-2020 11:13

Re: Coronavirus
 
Health care like the NHS will always have limits on what it can afford. Doctors will always have to make choices about who gets the limited treatment and when. COVID-19 is highlighting this but instead of "fighting" over a piece of equipment for patient A with condition X or patient B with condition Y it's lots of patients all at the same time with condition COVID-19. Individually it's terrible when patient A is "Joe Bloggs" and terrible for the individuals making the decisions.

Sephiroth 16-04-2020 11:15

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36031792)
You’ve got absolutely no evidence to support your hunch that these measures are having no effect on the outcome. Indeed, we’ve the entire capitalist system betting billions that it will.

Herd immunity is just Darwinism. You’re proposing to let people die to everyone left over doesn’t have the disease. We could extend that principle to plenty of illnesses - yet don’t.

I think you're being a bit harsh on OB. He isn't personally proposing herd immunity at all. It's a well discussed approach to pandemic "management" and it is one logical method for eradicating disease, albeit at the possible expense of some lives. And yes - Darwinism.

Russ 16-04-2020 11:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Captain Moore is currently just short of £13 million. :clap: :clap: :clap:

More bravery and gumption in that man than in the whole of Parliament.

jfman 16-04-2020 11:52

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36031798)
I think you're being a bit harsh on OB. He isn't personally proposing herd immunity at all. It's a well discussed approach to pandemic "management" and it is one logical method for eradicating disease, albeit at the possible expense of some lives. And yes - Darwinism.

It's never been successfully achieved with uncontrolled spread of a live virus through a population.

Hom3r 16-04-2020 13:55

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Russ (Post 36031799)
Captain Moore is currently just short of £13 million. :clap: :clap: :clap:

More bravery and gumption in that man than in the whole of Parliament.


People are calling for him to get a knighthood.

I agree, he's cheered the country up, and I can see it going up and up, dare I say £50 million.

---------- Post added at 13:55 ---------- Previous post was at 13:50 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36031783)
And if they didn't know they were carriers?


My mother didn't know she had it, we where making plans before lockdown and both my parents stay at home.

But other than Doctors/hospital appointments she only did the tesco shop with me.

She had no symptoms.

Damien 16-04-2020 13:55

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36031803)
It's never been successfully achieved with uncontrolled spread of a live virus through a population.

Herd immunity via viral infection has obviously happened though a population before, it's what happened before vaccines. It's why we don't all drop dead from all the viruses out there in the world, it's why the normal flu doesn't kill us all, it's why such viruses did kill people in the Americas when colonialists arrived.

It's why people used to have Pox Parties to give children the illnesses now that were deadlier in adults.

Remember the way our immune system works is even if there are different strains of a virus if they're similar enough to the previous one then it can adapt quicker. Most of us have immune systems that can detect a new strain of flu vaccine being similar to another as thus cope with it better. That's why we don't all need a flu vaccine.

Sephiroth 16-04-2020 14:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
I get flu every time I take a vaccine! I never get flu if I don't! Now, about that Cornavirus vaccine ....

---------- Post added at 14:50 ---------- Previous post was at 14:45 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36031803)
It's never been successfully achieved with uncontrolled spread of a live virus through a population.

What Damien said.

Paul 16-04-2020 15:44

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36031803)
It's never been successfully achieved with uncontrolled spread of a live virus through a population.

Of course it has, throughout the entire human history.
Vaccines have only existed for a very small period of time.

jonbxx 16-04-2020 16:17

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36031803)
It's never been successfully achieved with uncontrolled spread of a live virus through a population.

Apart from Smallpox of course..

The question is how did we manage to eradicate Smallpox? This disease had the following qualities;
  • Only human to human transmission (no animals involved)
  • You only spread it when pretty sick and obviously had Smallpox (no asymptomatic carriers)
  • The virus was very stable and didn't mutate over time
  • There was a simple vaccine available in Vaccinia/Cowpox

Smallpox was one nasty disease so governments and, more importantly, the public were SUPER motivated not to have it spread so many countries had mandatory vaccination which had a very high degree of compliance (of course, this was a long time back and a simpler time when people were more likely to do what they were told)

As the WHO approached the endgame and routine vaccination was phased out, sporadic outbreaks were tackled by very tough lockdowns and 'ring vaccination' where everyone within a certain area was vaccinated to nip outbreaks in the bud.

Unfortunately, it looks like Coronavirus can be spread by the 'walking sick', there may be animal hosts and the virus may mutate over time making things a lot more challenging

jfman 16-04-2020 16:32

Re: Coronavirus
 
That's controlled.

---------- Post added at 16:32 ---------- Previous post was at 16:31 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36031818)
Of course it has, throughout the entire human history.
Vaccines have only existed for a very small period of time.

I should have added 'deliberate' uncontrolled. In the past yes - diseases have killed enough people that those who remain are immune. I'm not sure that's a good policy outcome though...

Mr K 16-04-2020 16:40

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36031819)
Apart from Smallpox of course..

The question is how did we manage to eradicate Smallpox? This disease had the following qualities;
  • Only human to human transmission (no animals involved)
  • You only spread it when pretty sick and obviously had Smallpox (no asymptomatic carriers)
  • The virus was very stable and didn't mutate over time
  • There was a simple vaccine available in Vaccinia/Cowpox

Smallpox was one nasty disease so governments and, more importantly, the public were SUPER motivated not to have it spread so many countries had mandatory vaccination which had a very high degree of compliance (of course, this was a long time back and a simpler time when people were more likely to do what they were told)

As the WHO approached the endgame and routine vaccination was phased out, sporadic outbreaks were tackled by very tough lockdowns and 'ring vaccination' where everyone within a certain area was vaccinated to nip outbreaks in the bud.

Unfortunately, it looks like Coronavirus can be spread by the 'walking sick', there may be animal hosts and the virus may mutate over time making things a lot more challenging

We were warned with swine flu and bird flu; luckily they weren't as transmissible to humans but easily could have been. It was only a matter of time before something more transmissible came along.

It's natural for people to become complacent if these things come and go and they remain unaffected, but the Govt's pandemic planning is a shambles given they had the warnings from other flu outbreaks. Indeed its own flu pandemic exercise a few years ago showed the deficiencies we now have. They did diddly squat apart from hide the report findings in case we got too scared by it.

Mick 16-04-2020 16:55

Re: Coronavirus
 
BREAKING: Wales First Minister says, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and the UK Government have agreed a further three week lock down extension to continue.

UK Government is yet to announce these measures. But the Wales FM, has basically outlined what is about to be announced at the 5PM Press briefing in the next 5 Minutes, in Downing Street.

jfman 16-04-2020 18:02

Re: Coronavirus
 
Excellent announcement.

denphone 16-04-2020 18:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
And Raab sets out the exit criteria:

1) Confident that NHS can continue to provide critical care
2) sustained and consistent fall in death rates
3) reliable data from SAGE that rate of infection is decreasing
4) testing/PPE sorted
5) confident that relaxation doesn't yield second peak

RichardCoulter 16-04-2020 18:19

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36031822)
We were warned with swine flu and bird flu; luckily they weren't as transmissible to humans but easily could have been. It was only a matter of time before something more transmissible came along.

It's natural for people to become complacent if these things come and go and they remain unaffected, but the Govt's pandemic planning is a shambles given they had the warnings from other flu outbreaks. Indeed its own flu pandemic exercise a few years ago showed the deficiencies we now have. They did diddly squat apart from hide the report findings in case we got too scared by it.

When/if this is all over, I think that there will be calls for an independent enquiry.

It was said on the news today that it looks like those of us at severe risk of complications arising from the virus are going to have to lock ourselves away for up to 18 months (when it's expected that a vaccine will have been found) :shocked:

I also heard someone put forward the idea that all those at risk of severe complications should be shielded, whilst everybody else should go about their business as usual. He believed that this would help to quell the damage being done to the economy, encourage herd immunity and allow extra funds to be diverted to help those who cannot leave their homes e.g. 100% of wages paid by the Government, extra money for those on benefits to mitigate the extra expenses that they face. This would be cheaper than paying many people 80% of their wages.

My family lost a distant cousin to the virus the other day, which is a bit too close for comfort.

OLD BOY 16-04-2020 19:57

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36031782)
Any possible cure will come when we have a workable vaccine end of...

The vaccine will come all too late, I'm afraid, Den.

jfman 16-04-2020 20:04

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36031841)
The vaccine will come all too late, I'm afraid, Den.

Which is why we need lockdown to continue, social distancing to be enforced and break the chains of transmission. Then have a robust system in place for testing, contact tracing and yes, despite the deniers - screening at airports.

Not just medical screening - personal details. Who are you? Where are you staying? If we need to find you in the next month how can we contact you? If you develop symptoms contact this number straight away.

OLD BOY 16-04-2020 20:05

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36031792)
You’ve got absolutely no evidence to support your hunch that these measures are having no effect on the outcome. Indeed, we’ve the entire capitalist system betting billions that it will.

Herd immunity is just Darwinism. You’re proposing to let people die to everyone left over doesn’t have the disease. We could extend that principle to plenty of illnesses - yet don’t.

Herd immunity is natural. Humans didn't invent it.

The government was very clear all along that the whole point of isolation was to slow down the virus so the NHS can cope. Did you miss that?

You have seen the rate at which the people started to come down with coronavirus. What makes you think that we can stop this in its tracks? Only a vaccine will stop it short and we are nowhere near getting that.

All those people in care homes, with no visitors allowed and not going out anywhere, are still going down like flies. That shows how impotent we really are at dealing with new viruses like this. The fact that we have managed to slow it down is a massive achievement. But it will get that 80% of the population, of that I have absolutely no doubt.

denphone 16-04-2020 20:08

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36031841)
The vaccine will come all too late, I'm afraid, Den.

A workable vaccine might not be a cure OB when it comes but it will help considerably.

---------- Post added at 20:08 ---------- Previous post was at 20:06 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36031842)
Which is why we need lockdown to continue, social distancing to be enforced and break the chains of transmission. Then have a robust system in place for testing, contact tracing and yes, despite the deniers - screening at airports.

Not just medical screening - personal details. Who are you? Where are you staying? If we need to find you in the next month how can we contact you? If you develop symptoms contact this number straight away.

Listening to R4 this morning social distancing will be here probably for another 18 months or whenever the vaccine comes..

OLD BOY 16-04-2020 20:25

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 36031791)
The EU and anything like that should be irrelevant. The virus doesn't respect borders so neither should treatment. It's to the advantage of both the EU members and non-members to stop spread. If you've contained things in your country you now help contain it elsewhere so it doesn't come back to your country.

It's why we should help other nations now, especially those that can't afford "stuff" and often have large populations in very high density quarters. (Generations living in one single room - try self isolating there) People who earn daily what they need daily.

I get your sincerity on this, tweetiepie, but the government's responsibility is to its own citizens. It won't be giving away any equipment that we need for our own people to other countries until we are sure we can cope without.[COLOR="Silver"]

---------- Post added at 20:18 ---------- Previous post was at 20:09 ----------



Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36031831)
When/if this is all over, I think that there will be calls for an independent enquiry.

It was said on the news today that it looks like those of us at severe risk of complications arising from the virus are going to have to lock ourselves away for up to 18 months (when it's expected that a vaccine will have been found) :shocked:

I also heard someone put forward the idea that all those at risk of severe complications should be shielded, whilst everybody else should go about their business as usual. He believed that this would help to quell the damage being done to the economy, encourage herd immunity and allow extra funds to be diverted to help those who cannot leave their homes e.g. 100% of wages paid by the Government, extra money for those on benefits to mitigate the extra expenses that they face. This would be cheaper than paying many people 80% of their wages.


My family lost a distant cousin to the virus the other day, which is a bit too close for comfort.

That sounds like a plan, Richard. It would be good to know who suggested that. I said to my wife weeks ago that this was the way to go about protecting the vulnerable without ruining the economy. This should have been the plan all along.

---------- Post added at 20:25 ---------- Previous post was at 20:18 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36031842)
Which is why we need lockdown to continue, social distancing to be enforced and break the chains of transmission. Then have a robust system in place for testing, contact tracing and yes, despite the deniers - screening at airports.

Not just medical screening - personal details. Who are you? Where are you staying? If we need to find you in the next month how can we contact you? If you develop symptoms contact this number straight away.

That is completely unrealistic, jfman, if you are really suggesting extending a lockdown until we have a vaccine. Apart from crashing the economy, people won't stand for it. Even some vulnerable people I know are saying 12 weeks is quite bad enough and they don't want to spend their remaining days behind four brick walls.

I think you are just being provocative now.

jfman 16-04-2020 20:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36031843)
Herd immunity is natural. Humans didn't invent it.

So is death, yet we do everything in our power to prevent it.

Quote:

The government was very clear all along that the whole point of isolation was to slow down the virus so the NHS can cope. Did you miss that?
Which results in fewer deaths, despite your assertion that as yet you have provided no evidence for.

Quote:

You have seen the rate at which the people started to come down with coronavirus. What makes you think that we can stop this in its tracks? Only a vaccine will stop it short and we are nowhere near getting that.
China, South Korea, Germany. Same way we stop any virus really.

Quote:

All those people in care homes, with no visitors allowed and not going out anywhere, are still going down like flies.
Because it got in. That will be schools except rather than dying kids will take it back home to their families, their grandparents, etc.

Quote:

That shows how impotent we really are at dealing with new viruses like this. The fact that we have managed to slow it down is a massive achievement. But it will get that 80% of the population, of that I have absolutely no doubt.
We are impotent because we weren't prepared and didn't act quickly enough. We had a unique opportunity as an island with controlled borders to quickly identify and reduce the spread but we did not.

We have a further opportunity here to learn from other European countries that are intending to ease their restrictions and allow that to inform our decision making.

---------- Post added at 20:26 ---------- Previous post was at 20:25 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36031846)
That is completely unrealistic, jfman. Apart from crashing the economy, people won't stand for it. Even some vulnerable people I know are saying 12 weeks is quite bad enough and they don't want to spend their remaining days behind four brick walls.

I think you are just being provocative now.

A frankly laughable accusation from someone who just two posts back referred to people in care homes as 'dropping like flies'. Your anecdotal evidence is of no value Old Boy. None whatsoever.

I've explained over and over how the economy can be protected. The economy will tank, as Raab correctly pointed out, with a devastating second wave of the virus.

---------- Post added at 20:27 ---------- Previous post was at 20:26 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36031844)
Listening to R4 this morning social distancing will be here probably for another 18 months or whenever the vaccine comes..

It's common sense.

Pierre 16-04-2020 20:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36031842)
despite the deniers - screening at airports.

Ooh, that would be me, nice to see our junior virologist still thinks he knows better than the scientists.

Quote:

Who are you? Where are you staying? If we need to find you in the next month how can we contact you? If you develop symptoms contact this number straight away.
All the stuff they ask anyway, if you’re not from the EU. Would that number be 111?

jfman 16-04-2020 20:30

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36031855)
Ooh, that would be me, nice to see our junior virologist is still thinks he knows better than the scientists.

Had you read the article you linked to there was an effectiveness (44 out of every 100). There is no 100% effective way to stop Coronavirus, as I explained this morning, thus we require a combination of methods to get as close as we can to 100%

<removed>

Quote:

All the stuff they ask anyway, if you’re not from the EU. Would that number be 111?
Glad you are on board that it is a good idea.

tweetiepooh 17-04-2020 10:38

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36031846)
I get your sincerity on this, tweetiepie, but the government's responsibility is to its own citizens. It won't be giving away any equipment that we need for our own people to other countries until we are sure we can cope without.[COLOR="Silver"]

But it would be helping us. If as expected things quieten down over our summer months and get worse in the southern winter, sending help there to control the virus will help us but lowering risk of reintroduction. The is a global issue and need to be dealt with as such.
The government also has a duty to businesses that employ it's citizens. To secure supplies and markets. And those businesses need to trade so need people earning, moving, spending.
---
Reading on the BBC today that some second home owners (in Wales) are claiming business rebates on their second homes. The rules let them set these homes as businesses if they are available to let for 140 days and actually let for 70 days per year. So not only are some moving to small locations to get away from virus they are also getting money from it.
---
Help some small businesses buy buying now for later delivery. For example I get guitar strings from New Tone Strings. At the moment they are operating with just one person so may not be able to get strings out as quickly as possible but if players who don't need strings now but can order now (with delivery note to that affect) it may help them keep going, pay their bills are recover quicker. There are likely other traders maybe in your area you can help. This is all part of helping the fight against COVID-19. A sort of futures market as it were.

mrmistoffelees 17-04-2020 11:28

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36031843)
Herd immunity is natural. Humans didn't invent it.

The government was very clear all along that the whole point of isolation was to slow down the virus so the NHS can cope. Did you miss that?

You have seen the rate at which the people started to come down with coronavirus. What makes you think that we can stop this in its tracks? Only a vaccine will stop it short and we are nowhere near getting that.

All those people in care homes, with no visitors allowed and not going out anywhere, are still going down like flies. That shows how impotent we really are at dealing with new viruses like this. The fact that we have managed to slow it down is a massive achievement. But it will get that 80% of the population, of that I have absolutely no doubt.

1) We don't know that herd immunity will work as we don't know enough about the virus.

2) The virus was probably brought into care homes in one of two ways.
a) prior to lockdown by somebody asymptomatic
b) during the lockdown period by a resident being taken to hospital and contracting whilst
in hospital

The situation in care homes further exacerbated by staff having inadequate PPE which allowed transmission.

Pierre 17-04-2020 12:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36031887)
1) We don't know that herd immunity will work as we don't know enough about the virus.

we don't but as hypothesis go, it's best one we have. I've seen no evidence that a normal healthy person can reacquire the virus.

There have been isolated cases but these were due to other immunity issues the individuals had.

Hugh 17-04-2020 12:08

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36031887)
1) We don't know that herd immunity will work as we don't know enough about the virus.

2) The virus was probably brought into care homes in one of two ways.
a) prior to lockdown by somebody asymptomatic
b) during the lockdown period by a resident being taken to hospital and contracting whilst
in hospital


The situation in care homes further exacerbated by staff having inadequate PPE which allowed transmission.

Here is a direct quote from the Care Home (Group) that my mother-in-law is resident in, explaining they have had two cases in two different homes (out of the 60 they own), and how they are managing it - the FB Page is an open page, so I haven't removed any details. I have put some parts in bold.

Quote:

As part of the national effort, the care sector plays a vital role in supporting the NHS by accepting residents as they are discharged from hospital; recuperation is better in non-acute settings and hospitals need to have enough beds to treat the acutely sick patients. If the care sector does not provide this vital role the NHS will collapse.

COVID-19 cases will be dealt with in care homes, and Avery is no exception. We have robust protocols, policies and procedures to support those residents that display any symptoms associated with COVID-19. Given that limited or no testing is available outside of the NHS, the Avery homes take the full precaution of treating any symptomatic resident as if they have been tested as positive, although they may not be.

We are all seeing the devasting affect that the virus is having on the world and sadly the increase in deaths, which of course has affected some of you personally. We will continue in our determination to minimise risk in our homes and focus on supporting residents who are symptomatic of the virus and who at this sad time do not have the opportunity to see their loved ones. Our staff are also our priority, in protecting them with adequate supply of PPE and supporting their mental well-being, as we work through this unprecedented time. An amazing team effort with our protocols in place supports the safety and well-being of our residents, and we can already share with you celebrations of success where residents have recovered from COVID-19, at two of the Avery homes, in Milton Keynes and Birmingham. Both homes had residents without symptoms admitted to local hospitals for treatment on underlying conditions, and both were returned to the care homes testing positive. In the case at Milton Keynes, the hospital only advised this result the day after the resident was returned.

Fortunately for Derek at Milton Court care home in Milton Keynes, and for the other residents and staff, the home deployed their standard protocol of 14 days’ isolation for either new or returning residents, and so he was isolated and barrier-nursed. When confirmation came through from the hospital that he had tested positive, no changes to his regime were required. Derek’s daughter Debbie explained her relief that her dad had been nursed well and out of danger: “As a family we were very worried, but the care and dedication of the staff at Milton Court is second to none, and it was great to be able to speak to Dad again and hear him in good spirits.”

The same situation arose at St Giles care home in the east of Birmingham, when Jean returned from having treatment on existing conditions and had contracted COVID-19 whilst in hospital. She was immediately isolated on her return and barrier-nursed by a dedicated group of carers who had received additional training for such circumstances. Their focus and quality of care has brought Jean back to her previous self, and she has even appeared on the home’s Facebook pages to celebrate. Jean’s daughter Tracey was full of praise for the staff at St Giles and the care that her mum received, and further commented that, “Mom was dealt with very efficiently and compassionately during her infection, and we were kept informed throughout this period.”

Sharon Winfield, Chief Operating Officer for Avery Healthcare commented, “In line with the latest guidance from the Government and Public Health England on the admission and care of people in care homes, we immediately implement our 14 day isolation protocol to reduce risk, whether a new incoming or returning resident has been tested positive or not. We have very strict protocols in place for positive, symptomatic and asymptomatic residents to ensure that we protect as best as possible all in our care, our staff, and their respective families. It is now great to see that we are successfully nursing people through this virus with the correct approach and the hard work and dedication of all of our staff.”
We haven't had face to face contact with Mum since early March, but we ring her every night, and once a week the Care Home staff set up a video call.

mrmistoffelees 17-04-2020 12:38

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36031891)
we don't but as hypothesis go, it's best one we have. I've seen no evidence that a normal healthy person can reacquire the virus.

There have been isolated cases but these were due to other immunity issues the individuals had.

Then why did the CMO et all change their stance?

There's not enough concrete evidence as of yet to suggest that a normal healthy person cannot be reinfected.

There's quite simply too many unknowns to deviate away from the most restrictive method of protection possible.

On a side note, Letting 15,000 people into the country each week of fights without testing or forcing into quarantine is hardly going to help get our cases down either.

Hom3r 17-04-2020 13:05

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36031831)
When/if this is all over, I think that there will be calls for an independent enquiry.


Yes but the must be NO BLAME.

mrmistoffelees 17-04-2020 13:09

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36031899)
Yes but the must be NO BLAME.

Why?

Pierre 17-04-2020 14:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36031900)
Why?

witch hunts and should've, would've, could've arguments and finger pointing are rarely helpful.

There should be an independent enquiry, lessons learnt

Hom3r 17-04-2020 14:03

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36031900)
Why?


Because this is something that cannot be planned for.

The best thing is to see what has gone wrong and why, then what can be done if it happens again.

If there is any blame it's to the idiots going out with a valid reason.

Sunbathing in the park or beach is not one.

---------- Post added at 14:03 ---------- Previous post was at 14:02 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36031903)
witch hunts and should've, would've, could've arguments and finger pointing are rarely helpful.

There should be an independent enquiry, lessons learnt


Better put that I have.

mrmistoffelees 17-04-2020 14:15

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36031904)
Because this is something that cannot be planned for.

The best thing is to see what has gone wrong and why, then what can be done if it happens again.

If there is any blame it's to the idiots going out with a valid reason.

Sunbathing in the park or beach is not one.

---------- Post added at 14:03 ---------- Previous post was at 14:02 ----------




Better put that I have.


So, there are two issues with the bolded part.

We DO plan for pandemics, and we were found to be woefully unequipped to fight against them. (last time was 2016 IIRC)

This virus was known about since mid-late January, the government could have and should have started to purchase the PPE and other equipment that was needed. They did not

The governments inactions have to a degree contributed to the +6000 deaths and countless thousands of critically ill patients that we would normally see at this time of year.

---------- Post added at 14:15 ---------- Previous post was at 14:13 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36031903)
witch hunts and should've, would've, could've arguments and finger pointing are rarely helpful.

There should be an independent enquiry, lessons learnt

Those who have died needlessly may have a separate viewpoint (of course it's emotional)

Those who are currently treating the ill and are without suitable PPE will have a different viewpoint

If the government is found to have failed to prepare for this, then blame should be apportioned and the people responsible replaced.

Paul 17-04-2020 14:51

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36031906)
Those who have died needlessly may have a separate viewpoint (of course it's emotional)

Those who are currently treating the ill and are without suitable PPE will have a different viewpoint

If the government is found to have failed to prepare for this, then blame should be apportioned and the people responsible replaced.

How would that help any of the people you mention ?

Tell me what countries were prepared for something like this.

BenMcr 17-04-2020 15:02

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36031912)
How would that help any of the people you mention ?

Tell me what countries were prepared for something like this.

Taiwan for one

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/04/a...hnk/index.html

Also South Korea

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-state-testing

Sephiroth 17-04-2020 16:39

Re: Coronavirus
 
I got this email (extracted) from the Thames Valley Police Gold Commander:

With minor breaches, such as people reporting those who have taken multiple walks in a day, we may not be responding right there and then but that doesn’t mean we are ignoring them. Your reports help to provide vital information around patterns and hotspots which then go across to our local policing teams to inform their patrol plans. Please report minor breaches to us online.

Jeez, what would have happened if there were Jews living in the street had Hitler won? There are some real shit people around.



Hugh 17-04-2020 17:05

Re: Coronavirus
 
Have to disagree with you there.

Big difference between informing on people so they can be murdered by a genocidal regime and letting the police know that people are risking other’s lives by possibly increasing the number of infectious contacts.

papa smurf 17-04-2020 17:41

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36031916)
I got this email (extracted) from the Thames Valley Police Gold Commander:

With minor breaches, such as people reporting those who have taken multiple walks in a day, we may not be responding right there and then but that doesn’t mean we are ignoring them. Your reports help to provide vital information around patterns and hotspots which then go across to our local policing teams to inform their patrol plans. Please report minor breaches to us online.

Jeez, what would have happened if there were Jews living in the street had Hitler won? There are some real shit people around.



Every one knows who the grass is in the street,i imagine they will be dealt with in due course in the usual way.

Paul 17-04-2020 17:46

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BenMcr (Post 36031913)

So two ?, out of 200+ ? None in Eurrope, or North/South America.

Taiwan were apparently hit badly by SARS, so still had plans in place.

No idea about South Korea, your link is behind a paywall.

---------- Post added at 17:46 ---------- Previous post was at 17:43 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36031917)
Big difference between informing on people so they can be murdered by a genocidal regime and letting the police know that people are risking other’s lives by possibly increasing the number of infectious contacts.

If they are on their own, and/or observing distancing, then how are they increasing the number of contacts ?

We are not a police state (yet) but its a slippery slope we can easily fall down.

spiderplant 17-04-2020 17:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36031916)
I got this email (extracted) from the Thames Valley Police Gold Commander:

With minor breaches, such as people reporting those who have taken multiple walks in a day.

TVP need to brush up on the latest guidance.
"Likely to be reasonable: Exercising more than once per day"

Source: https://www.college.police.uk/What-w...ble-excuse.pdf

nomadking 17-04-2020 17:56

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36031921)
So two ?, out of 200+ ? None in Eurrope, or North/South America.

Taiwan were apparently hit badly by SARS, so still had plans in place.

No idea about South Korea, your link is behind a paywall.

---------- Post added at 17:46 ---------- Previous post was at 17:43 ----------


If they are on their own, and/or observing distancing, then how are they increasing the number of contacts ?

We are not a police state (yet) but its a slippery slope we can easily fall down.

How do you know they were going to be on their own? Too many cases of where people are gathering together as it is. If you give certain people an inch they will take a mile, and then some.

mrmistoffelees 17-04-2020 17:56

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36031912)
How would that help any of the people you mention ?

Tell me what countries were prepared for something like this.

So you're saying that we couldn't have learnt from what happened in China/Hong Kong where the virus first started to spread rapidly?

It's either ignorance, or incompetence. take your pick.

The government could and should have done more. Especially since UK hospitals were briefed on the situation in January

Sephiroth 17-04-2020 17:59

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36031917)
Have to disagree with you there.

Big difference between informing on people so they can be murdered by a genocidal regime and letting the police know that people are risking other’s lives by possibly increasing the number of infectious contacts.

For really minor matters such as multiple walks, dobbers are shit people,

mrmistoffelees 17-04-2020 18:13

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36031927)
For really minor matters such as multiple walks, dobbers are shit people,

Considering the regulations say that there's no limit to the amount of times someone can leave their home to exercise.

Prime example, Government says one thing actual legislation says something else. Police don't know which way to go, and err on the more draconian side of things

the latest CoP guidance just muddies the water further.

nomadking 17-04-2020 18:21

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36031925)
So you're saying that we couldn't have learnt from what happened in China/Hong Kong where the virus first started to spread rapidly?

It's either ignorance, or incompetence. take your pick.

The government could and should have done more. Especially since UK hospitals were briefed on the situation in January

Were France, Italy, Spain, US states prepared? As an independent report from last year stated, the UK was the 2nd most prepared for a Pandemic.

mrmistoffelees 17-04-2020 18:29

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36031932)
Were France, Italy, Spain, US states prepared? As an independent report from last year stated, the UK was the 2nd most prepared for a Pandemic.


We are two/three weeks behind Italy, France etc. there was still time then to step up a gear. However, that would have been short sighted.

We shouldn't have been looking at them, we should have been looking at China, As I said UK hospitals were briefed on the end of January on the probable spread and transmission rates.


The UK government on the advice of the CMO etc have

Stopped contact tracing
Waited to long to impose lockdown
Not tested arrivals into the country
Not forced arrivals into the country to self isolate for fourteen days.
Failed to provide sufficient or of adequate quality PPE to secondary care & care homes
Failed to increase testing to a suitable quantity

They have built the Nightinggales, but that's about the only thing they have got right.

---------- Post added at 18:29 ---------- Previous post was at 18:28 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36031932)
Were France, Italy, Spain, US states prepared? As an independent report from last year stated, the UK was the 2nd most prepared for a Pandemic.

A quick swizz and i cant find that report, could you oblige ?

I did find this however.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ly-implemented

Paul 17-04-2020 18:29

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36031925)
It's either ignorance, or incompetence. take your pick.

The government could and should have done more.

Yes, of course, the whole world is ignorance & incompetent. :rolleyes:

Quote:

The government could and should have done more ...
Ah there we go, I knew it wouldnt be long. :erm:
The favourite phrase of those who just want to attack whoever is in power.

I'm sure you would have done a much better job if you were in charge. :sleep:

Mr K 17-04-2020 18:30

Re: Coronavirus
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...y_to_clipboard

Quote:

NHS bosses have asked doctors and nurses to work without full-length gowns when treating Covid-19 patients, as hospitals across England are set to run out of supplies within hours, the Guardian has learned.

The guidance is a reversal of Public Health England (PHE) guidelines stipulating that full-length waterproof surgical gowns, designed to stop coronavirus droplets getting into someone’s mouth or nose, should be worn for all high-risk hospital procedures.

In a significant U-turn, PHE has advised frontline staff to wear a flimsy plastic apron when gowns have run out, in a move that doctors and nurses fear may lead to more of them contracting the virus and ultimately put lives at risk.
Unbelievable, let's hope Drs and Nurses don't walk away. At the moment we're asking them to put themselves, their families and other patients at risk. There is such a thing as duty of care for any employer, the Govt are failing on this for NHS staff.

mrmistoffelees 17-04-2020 18:38

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36031935)
Yes, of course, the whole world is ignorance & incompetent. :rolleyes:


Ah there we go, I knew it wouldnt be long. :erm:
The favourite phrase of those who just want to attack whoever is in power.

I'm sure you would have done a much better job if you were in charge. :sleep:

I was in Hong Kong airport in January after being away on business. i SAW with my own eyes what the authorities were doing to try and stem the cases. I also had colleagues who were in bejing at the time who saw even closer what was happening. People getting temperatures checked, turned away from flights etc.

If you're telling me that governments we're not aware of what was going on in China then that should make you more concerned. Or, is it more likely that governments decided to treat it like SARS-1/MERS and thought it would never reach here.

I'm not just slating the UK government, every government in Europe and the rest of the western world should be deeply concerned by the way they've handled this. (possible exception for Germany)

Surely the whole point of debate such as this is to put forward how we would deal with a situation if we were the ones in charge?

---------- Post added at 18:38 ---------- Previous post was at 18:35 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36031936)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...y_to_clipboard



Unbelievable, let's hope Drs and Nurses don't walk away. At the moment we're asking them to put themselves, their families and other patients at risk. There is such a thing as duty of care for any employer, the Govt are failing on this for NHS staff.


Nope, it's absolutely not the governments fault... they couldn't have possibly prepared for this.....

BenMcr 17-04-2020 18:39

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36031932)
Were France, Italy, Spain, US states prepared? As an independent report from last year stated, the UK was the 2nd most prepared for a Pandemic.

The US were until the current administration dismantled or ignored it.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinio...mn/2950848001/

Quote:

In 2005, President George W. Bush announced the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza, and the following year, his administration rolled out an implementation plan. The plan has been updated as recently as 2017 and provides a blueprint for the administration to act during the current outbreak.

Julian 17-04-2020 19:15

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36031936)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...y_to_clipboard



Unbelievable, let's hope Drs and Nurses don't walk away. At the moment we're asking them to put themselves, their families and other patients at risk. There is such a thing as duty of care for any employer, the Govt are failing on this for NHS staff.

That article says NHS bosses have made that decision not the government.

The NHS have taken all the PPE from the nationwide supply chain leaving others with none.

Our supplies have been seized at source including impounding containers on the dockside.

The ability of the NHS to mismanage the supply is breathtaking.

You'd have thought all those managers could be better organised.

pip08456 17-04-2020 19:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36031933)

A quick swizz and i cant find that report, could you oblige ?

I did find this however.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ly-implemented

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/...ess-pandemics/

Full GHS report heree.

https://www.ghsindex.org/

denphone 17-04-2020 19:24

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Julian (Post 36031947)
That article says NHS bosses have made that decision not the government.

The NHS have taken all the PPE from the nationwide supply chain leaving others with none.

Our supplies have been seized at source including impounding containers on the dockside.

The ability of the NHS to mismanage the supply is breathtaking.

You'd have thought all those managers could be better organised.

The NHS bosses and the government both have some explaining to do as the UK missed three chances to join a EU scheme to bulk-buy PPE which included gowns.

nomadking 17-04-2020 19:36

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36031930)
Considering the regulations say that there's no limit to the amount of times someone can leave their home to exercise.

Prime example, Government says one thing actual legislation says something else. Police don't know which way to go, and err on the more draconian side of things

the latest CoP guidance just muddies the water further.

Quote:

13. Can I go to the park?

You can still go to the park for outdoor exercise once a day but only alone or with members of your household, not in groups.
Communal places within parks such as sports courts, playgrounds and outdoor gyms have been closed to protect everyone’s health.
We ask that households use parks responsibly and keep 2 metres apart from others at all times.
Unless you are with members of your household, gatherings of more than two people in parks and other public spaces have been banned. The police have the powers to disperse gatherings and issue fines if necessary.

spiderplant 17-04-2020 19:54

Re: Coronavirus
 
In Wales, you may only go out for exercise once a day. Elsewhere there is no limit as long as your exercise is "reasonable".

Isn't devolution great?

Mr K 17-04-2020 20:13

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Julian (Post 36031947)
That article says NHS bosses have made that decision not the government.

The NHS have taken all the PPE from the nationwide supply chain leaving others with none.

Our supplies have been seized at source including impounding containers on the dockside.

The ability of the NHS to mismanage the supply is breathtaking.

You'd have thought all those managers could be better organised.

Sorry, but attempts to blame the NHS for the Govt underfunding, and lack of preparation over the the last 10 years doesn't wash. The pandemic was coming and predicted. Try again.

Julian 17-04-2020 20:30

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36031955)
Sorry, but attempts to blame the NHS for the Govt underfunding, and lack of preparation over the the last 10 years doesn't wash. The pandemic was coming and predicted. Try again.

Try again? Are you 6 years old? :rolleyes:

If you had any clue as to what is going on you might be in a position to comment.

Your anti-government stance is as tiresome as it is predictable.

I have had care homes on the phone today in tears pleading for supplies which we cannot fulfill due to the NHS stealing all the supplies.

The NHS have somehow managed to lose/waste PPE.

Hugh 17-04-2020 20:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Julian (Post 36031956)
Try again? Are you 6 years old? :rolleyes:

If you had any clue as to what is going on you might be in a position to comment.

Your anti-government stance is as tiresome as it is predictable.

I have had care homes on the phone today in tears pleading for supplies which we cannot fulfill due to the NHS stealing all the supplies.

The NHS have somehow managed to lose/waste PPE.

Seriously?

You don't think the normal day to day usage, plus nearly 20,000 COVID-19 patients may be upping the burn rate a bit?

Trying to blame nurses and doctors seems a bit off.

Mr K 17-04-2020 20:42

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Julian (Post 36031956)
Try again? Are you 6 years old? :rolleyes:

If you had any clue as to what is going on you might be in a position to comment.

Your anti-government stance is as tiresome as it is predictable.

I have had care homes on the phone today in tears pleading for supplies which we cannot fulfill due to the NHS stealing all the supplies.

The NHS have somehow managed to lose/waste PPE.

Mrs K is a staff nurse in a hospital (and has underlying health issues) so yes I know exactly what is going on. Maybe we should get down there and help out. We could maybe save PPE by not using it? No? Me neither, she's either mad or a saint, haven't decided yet.

Sephiroth 17-04-2020 20:52

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36031958)
Mrs K is a staff nurse in a hospital (and has underlying health issues) so yes I know exactly what is going on. Maybe we should get down there and help out. We could maybe save PPE by not using it? No? Me neither, she's either mad or a saint, haven't decided yet.

I've decided who is mad and who is a saint.

The truth will come out in the end as to the handling of this crisis.


Paul 17-04-2020 21:47

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36031957)
Trying to blame nurses and doctors seems a bit off.

I don't believe he mentioned Doctors & Nurses ?

Damien 17-04-2020 22:05

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36031959)
I've decided who is mad and who is a saint.

The truth will come out in the end as to the handling of this crisis.


There will be an inquiry for sure. Maybe two to separate out the scientific approach and another about resourcing.

I think the Government will largely be ok on how they handled the scientific advice and approach the situation. I suspect they will probably do badly when it comes to things like PPE and testing. Especially when it comes to care homes and social care generally.

Julian 18-04-2020 00:36

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36031963)
I don't believe he mentioned Doctors & Nurses ?

Exactly

Having taken all the PPE available in the UK the numerous managers have failed to get it to where it is needed.

That is not a government issue that is overpaid people mismanaging the resource

---------- Post added at 00:36 ---------- Previous post was at 00:22 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36031958)
Mrs K is a staff nurse in a hospital (and has underlying health issues) so yes I know exactly what is going on. Maybe we should get down there and help out. We could maybe save PPE by not using it? No? Me neither, she's either mad or a saint, haven't decided yet.

Huge respect to your wife working on when she could be off work for 12 weeks as a vulnerable person.

She will be reliant on the procurement team and distribution to ensure the front line staff have their PPE.

It is that link which is clearly broken.

Meanwhile people's loved ones are dying in care homes where there is no access to PPE at all.

Hugh 18-04-2020 10:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
I think the problem is that it is expected that, during a world-wide shortage of PPE, and an unforeseen requirement for PPE in Care Homes (the supply requirement went from a couple of hundred Trusts to over 58,000 organisations), there would/should be enought for everyone - this is a massive shift in requirements in a time of crisis, and a complex supply chain, mostly from overseas.

Could things have been done better - probably; does it help blaming people until we know the facts - probably not.

There have been shortfalls in lots of places - an example would be in Care Homes, where the group that my mum-in-law is in got supplies of PPE early in the crisis, whilst other Care Home organisations didn't; the other care homes shouldn't be blamed for not being as forward thinking as the one mum's in, because at the beginning very few people thought it would come to this. Should all the GP Surgeries, which are in effect private businesses, be blamed for not having ordered PPE equipment earlier?

In the vast complexity of Health and Social Care, whatever the Government does, it won't be enough - review afterwards, critique constructively during, but blaming is inappropriate at this stage, imho (especially without evidence, as in the comments about NHS managers).

From the Times
Quote:

Why isn’t this enough to satisfy demand?
The government has acknowledged that distribution of the equipment remains a challenge. At the weekend Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said that it was impossible to know when supplies of PPE would meet demand across the NHS and social care sectors. There are almost 1.6 million NHS staff and demand for PPE is at unprecedented levels. Many pieces of kit can only be used once or must be disposed of after a single session on a ward. Mr Hopson has said that supplies coming in from China have been “erratic”, with boxes labelled as containing gowns actually full of face masks and other equipment failing UK safety tests. “If everything had been flowing exactly as had been ordered and if all of the material had properly passed its safety test, there would not be an issue,” he said.

What about other countries?
The World Health Organisation has said that supplies of PPE are stretched across the globe as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. It said that prices have surged, with the cost of surgical masks rising six-fold, some respirators trebling and gowns doubling. Supplies have been hampered by the fact that it can take months to produce and deliver supplies, meaning prices are inflated by some countries.

denphone 18-04-2020 12:10

Re: Coronavirus
 
Yes definitely things could have been done better but you are right a contructive very wide ranging review of that there is no doubt afterwards as this was another example of muddled disjointed thinking in the link below.

https://www.ft.com/content/5f393d77-...7-416efbc575ec

Paul 18-04-2020 15:15

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36031977)

Not much use unless you are an FT subscriber.

pip08456 18-04-2020 15:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36031984)
Not much use unless you are an FT subscriber.

A google search for "Muddled thinking punctures plan for British ventilator" will let you read the article without subbing.

denphone 18-04-2020 15:34

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36031984)
Not much use unless you are an FT subscriber.

Have you typed the link into Google search.

Paul 18-04-2020 15:48

Re: Coronavirus
 
Not the point.
If you provide a link, it needs to work, not require google searches.

Taf 18-04-2020 16:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
JustGiving makes a profit from donations to people like Tom Moore. 5%, 10% or 15%!

And all payments processed through JustGiving are still be subject to standard card processing fees of 1.9% plus 20p.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/15/justg...iser-12561876/

Virgin Money Giving, another popular online platform for donating to charity, charges a 2% platform fee and 2.5% payment processing fee, which the donor can choose to cover. If not, the charity will pick up the tab.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...t-has-profited

denphone 18-04-2020 16:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf (Post 36031988)
JustGiving makes a profit from donations to people like Tom Moore. 5%, 10% or 15%!

And all payments processed through JustGiving are still be subject to standard card processing fees of 1.9% plus 20p.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/15/justg...iser-12561876/

Virgin Money Giving, another popular online platform for donating to charity, charges a 2% platform fee and 2.5% payment processing fee, which the donor can choose to cover. If not, the charity will pick up the tab.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...t-has-profited

If it is true then that is quite a sum as the latest figure is about £23 million which this wonderful man raised.

Sephiroth 18-04-2020 16:20

Re: Coronavirus
 
... and we're waffling on about JustGiving's take.

Julian 18-04-2020 17:11

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36031973)
I think the problem is that it is expected that, during a world-wide shortage of PPE, and an unforeseen requirement for PPE in Care Homes (the supply requirement went from a couple of hundred Trusts to over 58,000 organisations), there would/should be enought for everyone - this is a massive shift in requirements in a time of crisis, and a complex supply chain, mostly from overseas.

Care homes have always had a PPE requirement covered quite adequately by a network of suppliers. Only now with supplies being stolen en route is there an issue.

papa smurf 18-04-2020 17:17

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36031990)
... and we're waffling on about JustGiving's take.

Just about every advert on tv lately is a charity asking for donations,i never realised there were so many.

Sephiroth 18-04-2020 17:39

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36031994)
Just about every advert on tv lately is a charity asking for donations,i never realised there were so many.

... and I somewhat object to them when they are asking for a monthly contribution.

I seriously object to the cremation advert being peddled regularly - very poor taste.

heero_yuy 18-04-2020 17:44

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Quote from Sephiroth:

I seriously object to the cremation advert being peddled regularly - very poor taste.
Is that the one with the cartoon character that looks suspiciously like Corbyn?

Sephiroth 18-04-2020 19:47

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36031996)
Is that the one with the cartoon character that looks suspiciously like Corbyn?

In that case I don't object in the slightest!

Hugh 18-04-2020 20:03

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Julian (Post 36031992)
Care homes have always had a PPE requirement covered quite adequately by a network of suppliers. Only now with supplies being stolen en route is there an issue.

”stolen"?
Do you mean this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...als-say-bosses

Quote:

At a meeting of the committee last Thursday, Martin Green, the chief executive of Care England, which represents bigger care home chains, told MPs that wholesalers were prioritising supplying the NHS over care homes, even though ministers had asked them not to do so.

Damien 18-04-2020 20:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
The Sunday Times has a pretty brutal item about the Governments failings in February: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...ster-hq3b9tlgh http://archive.vn/ofnfS

- Calls to stock up on PPE were ignored
- Boris Johnson skipped five Cobra meetings
- Warnings from SAGE and other scientists about the danger of the virus were ignored

Some parts:

Quote:

It was a message repeated throughout February but the warnings appear to have fallen on deaf ears. The need, for example, to boost emergency supplies of protective masks and gowns for health workers was pressing, but little progress was made in obtaining the items from the manufacturers, mainly in China.
Instead, the government sent supplies the other way — shipping 279,000 items of its depleted stockpile of protective equipment to China during this period, following a request for help from the authorities there.
Quote:

The failure to obtain large amounts of testing equipment was another big error of judgment, according to the Downing Street source. It would later be one of the big scandals of the coronavirus crisis that the considerable capacity of Britain’s private laboratories to mass-produce tests was not harnessed during those crucial weeks of February.

The lack of action was confirmed by Doris-Ann Williams, chief executive of the British In Vitro Diagnostics Association, which represents 110 companies that make up most of the UK’s testing sector. Amazingly, she says her organisation did not receive a meaningful approach from the government asking for help until April 1 — the night before Hancock bowed to pressure and announced a belated and ambitious target of 100,000 tests a day by the end of this month.

There was also a failure to replenish supplies of gowns and masks for health and care workers in the early weeks of February — despite NHS England declaring the virus its first “level four critical incident” at the end of January.
The article frequently states that Johnson was not around for Cobra meetings, SAGE meetings and Cabinet meetings.

1andrew1 18-04-2020 21:30

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36032007)
The Sunday Times has a pretty brutal item about the Governments failings in February: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...ster-hq3b9tlgh http://archive.vn/ofnfS

- Calls to stock up on PPE were ignored
- Boris Johnson skipped five Cobra meetings
- Warnings from SAGE and other scientists about the danger of the virus were ignored

Some parts:

The article frequently states that Johnson was not around for Cobra meetings, SAGE meetings and Cabinet meetings.

Very damning, more so from a pro-Conservative paper.
Would be interesting to understand the reasons for this. Is it because Johnson is not into detail and meetings? Was it because the Government had little bandwidth as it was focused on Brexit?

Pierre 18-04-2020 21:56

Re: Coronavirus
 
Hold the government to account, yes.

Investigate were things went wrong and were “mistakes” were made, yes.

Even, when it’s over, investigate if there was culpable negligence, yes.

But also appreciate what they are trying to do, what they are up against, and what they have done.

Support what they are trying to do during this crisis so we can get through it, and have a country and economy when we come out of it.

Also the media need to take a good hard look at themselves as some of the reports, from Sky and the BBC, have been misleading and sensationalist and not helpful.

Paul 18-04-2020 22:03

Re: Coronavirus
 
I suppose all the supermarket bosses are at fault for not stocking up on supplies ready for the insane panic buying. They should have had more toilet rolls ready ....

Damien 18-04-2020 22:08

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36032011)
I suppose all the supermarket bosses are at fault for not stocking up on supplies ready for the insane panic buying. They should have had more toilet rolls ready ....

The point is there seems to have been ample warning and a period of a month to six weeks were the alarm bells were ringing at the PM was not attending various meetings, PPE was not being stocked up and even being sent to China despite the NHS requesting it. The Government is saying now how quickly they're trying to get resources, why not start two months ago when the NHS raised the threat level?

1andrew1 18-04-2020 22:08

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36032011)
I suppose all the supermarket bosses are at fault for not stocking up on supplies ready for the insane panic buying. They should have had more toilet rolls ready ....

They didn't send existing toilet rolls to China or ignore advice to order more toilet rolls though?

Damien 18-04-2020 22:09

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36032010)
Investigate were things went wrong and were “mistakes” were made, yes.

Even, when it’s over, investigate if there was culpable negligence, yes.

But also appreciate what they are trying to do, what they are up against, and what they have done.

Support what they are trying to do during this crisis so we can get through it, and have a country and economy when we come out of it.

Also the media need to take a good hard look at themselves as some of the reports, from Sky and the BBC, have been misleading and sensationalist and not helpful.

I think they've done well in some aspects as the disaster took hold but those missing months will be the focus of that investigation when things settle down. It appears the Government did little until Italy raised alarm bells. The article is especially damning of Johnson's many absences from meetings where this was discussed as well.

nomadking 18-04-2020 23:15

Re: Coronavirus
 
A Cobra meeting is just a meeting coordinating different departments. If an issue is raised then it has to be investigated by the department(s) and a potential response can then be decided. If is becomes apparent during the course of a meeting that a particular thing needs doing immediately, then that can be reported to the PM immediately. The different ministers and departments would go away and formulate plans. That is THEIR job. The PM wouldn't need to be there for those stages.



Which country that has been affected in a major way has had enough PPE?
Japan has had only 200+ deaths so far, yet....
Link
Quote:

Doctors in Japan have warned that the country's medical system could collapse amid a wave of new coronavirus cases.
Emergency rooms have been unable to treat some patients with serious health conditions due to the extra burden caused by the virus, officials say.
One ambulance carrying a patient with coronavirus symptoms was turned away by 80 hospitals before he could be seen.
...


Hospitals are already turning away patients, and all this while the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 remains relatively low compared with other countries.
Doctors have complained of a lack of protective equipment, which suggests Japan has not prepared well for the virus. This is despite the fact it was the second country outside China to record an infection, way back in January.

Just more of the never-ending nonsense.

1andrew1 19-04-2020 00:08

Re: Coronavirus
 
The Sunday Times is reporting that schools will open in three weeks' time
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...097024/photo/1

Good article on planning for the return here
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham...tage-exit-plan

Mick 19-04-2020 09:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
Education secretary has basically rubbished that Sunday Times report about Schools. They will open when the science says they should open, he says.

papa smurf 19-04-2020 09:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36032019)
Education secretary has basically rubbished that Sunday Times report about Schools. They will open when the science says they should open, he says.

will parents rush to send the kids back to school when they reopen?

1andrew1 19-04-2020 09:31

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36032016)
A Cobra meeting is just a meeting coordinating different departments. If an issue is raised then it has to be investigated by the department(s) and a potential response can then be decided. If is becomes apparent during the course of a meeting that a particular thing needs doing immediately, then that can be reported to the PM immediately. The different ministers and departments would go away and formulate plans. That is THEIR job. The PM wouldn't need to be there for those stages.

Which country that has been affected in a major way has had enough PPE?
Japan has had only 200+ deaths so far, yet....
Link
Just more of the never-ending nonsense.

A Cobra meeting is not simply a meeting co-ordinating different departments. Nor is it a meeting for people to take away woolly investigations and consider potential decisions.

It's about reacting quickly by having all the key decision-makers together.
"The point is to have the important officials in the same place, so quick, decisive action can be taken."
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/cobra-me...t-stand-508755

They're usually chaired by the PM:
"The Prime Minister will usually chair Cobra meetings, and tends to always do so if the crisis at hand is more severe. https://metro.co.uk/2018/03/07/cobra...9/?ito=cbshare
Just to make that clear "The Prime Minister will usually chair the meetings."
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/316037...cobra-meaning/

---------- Post added at 09:31 ---------- Previous post was at 09:28 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36032020)
will parents rush to send the kids back to school when they reopen?

At the drop of a hat in many cases. But if the Education Secretary has said they won't re-open soon, then it's all a bit, uhm, academic. :D:D

Rexz 19-04-2020 10:00

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36032015)
I think they've done well in some aspects as the disaster took hold but those missing months will be the focus of that investigation when things settle down. It appears the Government did little until Italy raised alarm bells. The article is especially damning of Johnson's many absences from meetings where this was discussed as well.

I mean, it wasn't actually classed as a pandemic until march 11th, two weeks before the UK went into lockdown. At that point, china was reporting a pause in infections, and Italy had 10000 cases. I think those 2 weeks where we appeared to not do much (who know what was going on behind the scenes) will be at question. Also I suspect as this country is mainly focused on the financial sector and relies on importing manufactured goods, those products became increasingly difficult to acquire as each country either went into lockdown or used up all their own manufacturing lines to produce equipment for themselves.

Pierre 19-04-2020 10:02

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36032015)
I think they've done well in some aspects as the disaster took hold but those missing months will be the focus of that investigation when things settle down. It appears the Government did little until Italy raised alarm bells. The article is especially damning of Johnson's many absences from meetings where this was discussed as well.

As I understand it, there has been an ICU bed and ventilation for everyone that has needed it.

The only meaningful thing they could have done was introduce lockdown/ social distancing earlier, let’s not forget when social distancing was first requested the great British public ignored them.

---------- Post added at 10:02 ---------- Previous post was at 10:02 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36032020)
will parents rush to send the kids back to school when they reopen?

I will.

nomadking 19-04-2020 10:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36032021)
A Cobra meeting is not simply a meeting co-ordinating different departments. Nor is it a meeting for people to take away woolly investigations and consider potential decisions.

It's about reacting quickly by having all the key decision-makers together.
"The point is to have the important officials in the same place, so quick, decisive action can be taken."
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/cobra-me...t-stand-508755

They're usually chaired by the PM:
"The Prime Minister will usually chair Cobra meetings, and tends to always do so if the crisis at hand is more severe. https://metro.co.uk/2018/03/07/cobra...9/?ito=cbshare
Just to make that clear "The Prime Minister will usually chair the meetings."
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/316037...cobra-meaning/

---------- Post added at 09:31 ---------- Previous post was at 09:28 ----------


At the drop of a hat in many cases. But if the Education Secretary has said they won't re-open soon, then it's all a bit, uhm, academic. :D:D

Usually = not always..
Key decision makers = different departments.
9th March, ie before nonsense agenda.
Quote:

To the public, a Cobra meeting is generally when members of the government meet to discuss the response to a given issue.
...

Who attends Cobra meetings?

Unlike a Cabinet meeting - where frontbenchers meet the prime minister - there is no rigid register for who should attend a Cobra meeting and not even Boris Johnson has to attend.
The composition of any Cobra meeting depends on the issue that is to be discussed.
According to the Institute for Government, it's usually made up of officials and agency personnel, alongside ministers, from relevant departments and agencies.

After any discussion the different departments would then go off and draw up plans and proposals. This situation is very different from many others in that any response takes a bit of planning.
Quote:

The purpose of a Cobra meeting is to discuss high-level coordination and decision-making in the face of a crisis, according to the Institute for Government. The crisis could be a range of things, including natural disasters, terrorist attacks, major industrial accidents, and as coronavirus has demonstrated, threats to public health.

There is more of an immediacy and simple types of response to those other things. Eg the Financial package of support won't have been quick and easy to sort out.


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