Re: Coronavirus
 

Including you OB? Or are you happy for others take the risk on your behalf?

Re: Coronavirus
 

If everyone else should be going back to work, why do we have the furlough scheme?

Re: Coronavirus
 

There's no simple answer to any of this. That is despite the many studies of the effect of school closures and the 151 page UK government summary report from May 2014. That report included references to 171 studies.


A key factor is, how well have people been behaving during the lockdown? If the chaining(passing from one person to another and so on) of infections has been properly broken, there should be fewer people out there infected. If people have been regularly meeting up with random people during a lockdown, then the potential is there to resurface when a lockdown is eased(eg South Korea).

Re: Coronavirus
 

There is a simple answer. Until it’s safe to ease lockdown measures we should not be doing so. That depends on testing, tracing and isolating. Internationally recognised best practice we ignored in February with a complacent approach and similarly I see no evidence that we are well placed to do it now.

A second wave is inevitable now at massive human and economic cost.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It has been recommendations, not imposition.:rolleyes: It has been important to not unnecessarily overwhelm the health system.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I don’t think it is stupid or reckless, I think it’s necessary.

We’re not going back to normal anytime soon, but we’ve got to start the direction of travel.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

You think it’s necessary based on fag packet understanding of economics. We aren’t going back to normal anytime soon, so what’s the rush and risk doing it badly?

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And that won’t capture the idiocy of the VE Day street parties for a further week. While spread across the country, that’s a new Cheltenham or Athletico Madrid v Liverpool game right there.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That hasn't worked in South Korea. Which countries(apart from South Korea) allowed tracking of phone data? Tracing will not catch everybody as there are too many casual encounters(eg in the same shop).

Technically it will never be possible to end lockdown, as the very least there will always be another virus to come along.

Eg Spanish Flu outbreak in Connecticut, 3 cities didn't close schools and had fewer deaths, than in at least 2 cities that did close schools. But that shouldn't be used as a definitive answer because there are so many other factors involved.

Re: Coronavirus
 

What do you mean it hasn’t worked? Tiny number of deaths, cases identified and isolated quickly. People going around their day to day lives in relative normality. They’ve held national elections in this time.

How do you define success? 30,000 deaths? A massacre in care homes? Genuinely I’d really like to know.

Re: Coronavirus
 

---------- Post added at 20:38 ---------- Previous post was at 20:37 ----------



The not irritating at all Gavin Williamson politiciansplained that they're providing a "bubble" for the teachers with their good advice. Not sure if it's a bubble of alertness or maybe one of control but I hope it's better than the bubble of criminal incompetence they put in the care homes.

Re: Coronavirus
 

What party is in power is not exactly relevant.
A different government would be just as keen to revive the economy, or perhaps you would prefer they just werck it completely ?

Once again with the insulting digs. Are you really that keen to take another rest ?

Re: Coronavirus
 

There has been an outbreak of cases in South Korea after the easing of lockdown.

61% of cases were tracked back to one person, and that was triggered by the doctor breaking the rules on criteria for testing. Now imagine if instead of just one person, it was 10 in the UK, that would've(ie has) resulted in MANY more cases even WITH testing and tracing. South Korea had at LEAST 61% of their cases BEFORE testing and tracing could have any impact.

How would you have gone about tracing people when just look at the fuss over the proposed app.
South Korea

Re: Coronavirus
 

And they found it. That’s success.

With open international borders this will become a necessity for all countries if we want “normal”. Otherwise it’s “oh, you’ve came from the UK wait there while I check my chart? Second highest death count in the world? 14 days in the cell thanks”.

61% of cases occurred before testing and tracing had any impact simply because of the success they had using such methods. Had they not been successful it’d have been much worse.

Tell them it’ll be good for the economy. If they’re willing to make human sacrifice of teachers then I’m sure installing an app is neither here nor there. The data collected is considered intrusive, however so is significant restrictions on movement, restrictions on activities, closed pubs, bars, cinemas.

Unfortunately until the UK recognises international best practice for dealing with pandemics and implements it properly then we are in various states of lockdown and economic recession for some time to come. I’m not sure who gains from ignoring this self evident reality.

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I’ll refer to “the Government” then instead of the Tories. I’ve no preference to see the economy wrecked, however it’s a flawed understanding to assume that easing restrictions quickly automatically leads to (or speeds up) recovery.

Sweden is going into recession without a lockdown.

The economic outcome and health outcome are now intertwined. Significant easing of restrictions without adequate testing and contact tracing leaves us heading to an Italy (or a repeat of UK wave 1) type situation within 4-6 weeks of easing restrictions, a further complete lockdown and further economic chaos.

And no, I’m not keen on that rest. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

:tu:

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Why am I not surprised? I just wish this government would be more honest. This going back to school can be gussied up to be concerns for vulnerable and poorer ability children but it's just a desire to use teachers and nursery staff as childminders so as to get the country back to work. Just be honest Boris..