Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

America is currently following through with deportation of foreign nationals in the face of judicial orders not to do so. I’m unclear on what basis the president of the United States could be forced to intervene anywhere militarily if he had chosen not do so - least of all a president who is a New York businessman, clearly knows what a protection racket looks like, and has explicitly stated that he intends to run Nato like one.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Deporting people is worlds apart from not securing your treaty committed allies. It’s a zero cost activity with political upside.

It wouldn’t be like cutting and running from Afghanistan, Iraq and Ukraine. It’d be a decision that would affect America’s position in the geopolitical order for generations to come.

America has forward bases in NATO countries, and relies upon it for logistical and political support for its overseas escapades (and perhaps more importantly at present - political cover for Israel’s American funded and armed atrocities in Palestine). This fundamentally hasn’t changed.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

All of which is true, but your argument rests on an assumption that Trump is a rational actor. I’m not convinced he is. He’s a narcissist who harbours deep frustrations at the obligations and state institutions that restrained him from 2017 to 2021. He has shown the inclination to tear them down repeatedly since mid January. Whether he’s pursuing revenge or whether he’s simply clearing the decks to ensure he gets his own way, he’s shown little sign of understanding the longer term consequences of his actions. He is acting out of a need for narcissistic supply. That isn’t rational.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You appear to be moving the goalposts from

to

How could they follow through on something that there is no indication, anywhere, happening?

You may wish to actively review your risk assessment matrix scoring methodology… ;)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You do know that other NATO members can protect/come to the aid of other NATO members, without the need of the USA to be involved, if they decide not to.

France and the U.K. have independent nuclear capability, that alone should still deter anyone attacking NATO, whether the US is onside or not.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Article 5 is relevant in this context…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Only the USA has nuclear umbrella treaties with other states. France has recently suggested it could do so, providing its arsenal as a nuclear umbrella for Nato-sans-USA, on the assumption that US intervention can’t be guaranteed, but has put nothing on paper. At present neither France nor the UK has any treaty obligation to respond to a nuclear attack on a third country with its own nuclear weapons, even under NATO art.5.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Obligated or not, I would expect a nuclear attack on a NATO nation, even if the US did not respond ( which I doubt would be the case) to result in the other nuclear members of NATO to respond.

Otherwise…….what’s the point of NATO?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I don’t think we should be necessarily going all Franz Ferdinand with nuclear weapons anyway. The first question should, although inevitably won’t, be how to get off the escalation ladder.

I’m not sure “ah, but we were obliged to” stops the third one landing on us.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...vertelemetry=1


---------- Post added at 11:46 ---------- Previous post was at 09:47 ----------

Perhaps not invading and occupying other countries would be a good first step to getting off the escalation ladder, by not actually bringing the escalation ladder on to the scene?

btw, remind me, which side has repeatedly threatened to escalate to delivering "instant sunshine" by changing their nuclear weapons doctrine?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Appreciate that would be the ideal scenario but the hypothetical as put inferred that someone had already used a nuclear weapon.

The idea of Britain being treaty bound, and actively increasing the number of countries this applies to, to ensure its own destruction without question is madness.

What if Russia used a small nuclear weapon in response to a chemical attack, dirty bomb, or similar. The official Ukrainian Government at that time, in a state of civil unrest, blames nationalist splinter groups and rogue UAF not operating under their command. Do we blast Moscow because the bit of paper says so?*

*Not saying the above is likely to happen, and yes the scenario is designed to be deliberately difficult to judge. The same could equally apply with other countries and it’s very easy to see how it ends in World War 3.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Perhaps Putin saw us invading and occupying Iraq, and thought hmmm..........

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Us? Nothing to do with the UK.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Think it did involve the Uk

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Wow, that’s impressive - I haven’t seen that big a stretch since Saturday 1st February 1975, at RAF Cosford.

That was Geoff Capes warming up for the Shot Put at the U.K. Indoor Athletic Championships… :D