Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
(Post 36192834)
Ultimately - leaving aside whether Russia have any intention of signing - the optics of Trump pushing Ukraine and Russia to the table and an immediate deal is likely difficult for Putin. Whether he gets anything else from Trump or not is likely irrelevant so long as he can indicate he has.
Appreciate that’s of no concern to the “every inch plus Crimea” brigade of Ukrainiacs but any settlement was always likely to be one that Putin can sell at home as a success for the “special military operation”.
At this point it’s possible Putin would prefer to push the Ukrainian incursion out of Russia to remove it from the negotiations.
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I’m happy to be a Ukrainiac - regardless of the tactical difficulty, Ukraine’s borders are established in international law. European states slicing territory off each other has never gone well in the past and settling for it now in the name of realpolitik sets a dangerous modern precedent.
As far as the ceasefire offer goes, I think Putin’s bluff has been called. He has maximalist aims of his own, and half the Donbas plus a few extras doesn’t come close. I predict his list of difficulties and things that still need to be ironed out will grow longer and be forever tantalisingly out of reach.
And FWIW I think Putin has got quite a lot out of Trump, including a blinding of Ukraine’s ability to see what the Russians were doing for just long enough for Russia to effectively end the Kursk incursion. The timing of the beginning and the end of that withdrawal of support is far too convenient. |
