Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

You do know that GERS is commissioned by the Scottish government and compiled by independent statisticians, yes? Blaming its findings on a supposed U.K. government smear campaign is batty even by sep standards.

Besides all this, if you reduce Scotland’s apparent military spending to the same level as Ireland (around £0.8bn a year) then Scotland’s deficit is still eye-watering. Obsessing over the size of the UK’s defence budget, which is not even out of proportion for a NATO member, is missing the point entirely.

Of course within a single unitary state called the United Kingdom none of this is a problem. Throughout history, different corners of this island have seen their fortunes rise and fall, and rise again. The whole island does not have to be equally prosperous, all the time, for all its inhabitants to share in the opportunities presented by the prosperity of the whole.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I wonder what Scotland would do with defence.

In a way they could spend hardly anything because they know their security is also of concern to the security of the remainder of the United Kingdom. Would they stay part of NATO? I know the corridor of water that sits above them is deemed as important for NATO. If they were part of NATO they would have to pay for some defence but the SNP can play to their base by disassociating themselves from the British military.

I suspect they would attempt to trade their acceptance of NATO and maybe keep trident in return for something else. However with all their pandering about nuclear weapons it's going to be a hard sell for the SNP to have an independent Scotland keep nuclear weapons, remain in NATO and pay 3% GDP for the privilege.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Nah they'll just stock up on woad and spears.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Separatism is a fragile coalition. The only doorstepper I got in 2014 was in it purely because she thought it would end Trident - Scotland would throw it out, England would have nowhere else to put it and therefore it would be decommissioned. All concerns about the economy and the social ties across the U.K., were completely irrelevant in the face of that prize.

She was naive beyond belief, and she isn’t the only one. There is a constituency that wants independence in order to further the aims of CND, a constituency that wants independence as a route to republic, and a constituency that thinks “anyone but England” and believes Scotland’s finest hour was breaking the goalposts at Wembley.

One of the many reasons for not doing it is that after a yes vote, the competing demands of the factions would finally be seen to be irreconcilable, and it would then get extremely messy.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

In fairness to JFMan, there's plenty of Brexiters on here who seem to believe that economists and other experts are not to be trusted as they never get it right and Government figures that show how worse off we will be post Brexit are calculated by remainer civil servants. So perhaps JF Man has been made equally suspicious of those who compile the GERS figures being unionists.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

These aren’t economists though, and GERS isn’t a forecast. It is a statistical exercise, based on real current income and expenditure, which separatists used to love when oil cost a fortune and huge quantities of it were coming ashore because it made Scotland look very rich. Only now that the oil boom is coming to an end do they find it so inconvenient, and something to be called into question and brushed under the carpet.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

GERS has underlying problems with the source data. In many cases the only source is the UK Government departments and again it’s based on Scotland not having the macroeconomic levers that an independent country has.

I fail to see how having defence spending behind only the US and Israel cannot be out of step for a NATO member considering Israel isn’t one, so every other NATO member except the USA has lower military spending per capita than Scotland.

Real tax receipts from income tax, VAT and corporation tax aren’t readily available figures based on trade carried out solely within Scotland.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

9 if they rejoin it will cost them £40 billion
10 if they join the EU it's border and tax nightmare time for them.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

We'll never be able to sell a supermajority vote, not after having the last two referendums we've had as not requiring it. I think such a monumental change as breaking up the union should require more than 50% but that's been set as convention now.

I don't think it helps the cause to be too hostile to them at first anyway lest we risk a negative reaction. Certainly we can make it clear that we won't enter a currency union. They can use the pound, we can't stop them, but we're not their central bank post-Indy and won't consider Scotland when setting montary policy.

7 and 8 are unworkable as you can't such restrictions for future Governments. If both England and Scotland were to want to reform the union 10 years down the line then they can do so. Besides it's also counterproductive to enshrine in an agreement an 'out' down the line, it could make Independence seem like a free hit in which they can change their mind if it goes wrong.

We want Scotland to stay, we're not going to be draconian about it, but if they vote to leave then that means their own currency and the remainder of the United Kindom and it's 61 million people becomes a competitor albeit a friendly one. Scottish Businesses will no longer have an immediately addressable market of 66 million people in which the regulations, language and currency are all the same. Their addressable market is now 5 million.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

#banter

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Could be one of these economists


home economics
noun
cooking and other aspects of household management, especially as taught at school.;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

In fairness Seph, I wasn't sure if your post was tongue in cheek or not. :D

For starters, giving Scotland a 60% hurdle when the Brexit vote just needed a simple majority is just going to inflame matters and play to the nationalist cause. And rejoin upto two years incentives Scots to give it a go as there is a lifeboat waiting if it all goes pear-shaped.
I'll leave it here.