Cable Forum - Election 2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36018520)

BREAKING: The Conservatives are set to win 359 seats according to a new poll, giving Boris Johnson a majority of 68.

The MRP poll for The Times also puts Labour on 211 seats, a loss of more than 40 MPs. In the last parliament, they had 262 seats.

The polling method is seen as authoritative because it predicted a hung parliament was likely in 2017 - and was proved correct.

The model used questioned 100,000 people over the course of seven days and adapted answers to account for age, gender, voting history and local political circumstances in individual constituencies.

It suggests the Conservatives could pick up 44 seats from Labour on 12 December, while the SNP would recover some losses in Scotland, getting eight seats back compared to 2017.

https://news.sky.com/story/general-e...-poll-11871956

A sample size of 100,000 is pretty darned impressive and will have allowed them to weight for demographics and constituency variations very effectively.

It’s worth pointing out that their prediction of a 68 seat Tory majority is almost exactly what the polling average at Electoral Calculus is currently predicting.

Obviously we have 2 weeks still to go and things could change but, as I keep saying, Boris Johnson is not Teresa May. He obviously has a connection with the electorate she didn’t have, and he hasn’t just published a manifesto threatening the pension savings of his core vote.

---------- Post added at 23:14 ---------- Previous post was at 23:09 ----------

OK, you know the drill ... week 4 discussion is now here:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...php?t=33708439