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-   -   Russia has invaded Ukraine (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33710768)

1andrew1 15-11-2022 20:38
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Important to note that the missile killed two people in Poland.

Pierre 15-11-2022 20:49
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36140040)
I don't think they'll invoke Article 5. At the very least there will be pressure from the rest of NATO not to invoke it over this. It's too much of an escalation to collectively take military action against Russia over two wayward missiles. There would have to be evidence of obvious intent.
They’ll invoke article 4, and do nothing.

Mick 15-11-2022 20:55
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
BREAKING: NATO now actively investigating reports of explosion in Poland, near Ukrainian border.

richard-john56 15-11-2022 21:09
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
It is time to give the Ukrainians the weapons with the range to hit back at Russian infrastructure.

Mick 15-11-2022 21:40
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
BREAKING: Polish Government raising readiness of military units following reports of missile strikes close to Ukrainian border, Russia denies responsibility.

Jaymoss 15-11-2022 21:40
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
If it does turn out to be an attempt from Ukraine to force escalation they should be sanctioned and support withdrawn.

I do not support Russia's invasion but I also do not trust Zelenskyy

Damien 15-11-2022 21:41
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36140056)
If it does turn out to be an attempt from Ukraine to force escalation they should be sanctioned and support withdrawn.
No one is saying that. The Ukraine theory is that some of their anti-missle weaponry landed in Poland after incepting a Russian missile.

Jaymoss 15-11-2022 21:42
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36140057)
No one is saying that. The Ukraine theory is that some of their anti-missle weaponry landed in Poland after incepting a Russian missile.
I am saying it

Mr K 15-11-2022 21:44
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36140056)
If it does turn out to be an attempt from Ukraine to force escalation they should be sanctioned and support withdrawn.
Been watching RT again? More likely a Russian mistake, or a Ukranian missile trying to shoot down a Russian missile. Either way, Russia is responsible.

Jaymoss 15-11-2022 21:45
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36140060)
Been watching RT again? More likely a Russian mistake, or a Ukranian missile trying to shoot down a Russian missile. Either way, Russia is responsible.
What's RT? clearly the answer is no

Damien 15-11-2022 21:47
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36140058)
I am saying it
You think Ukraine has decided the best approach now is to fire a missle at a NATO country?

Jaymoss 15-11-2022 21:49
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36140062)
You think Ukraine has decided the best approach now is to fire a missle at a NATO country?
They are getting the living crap bombed out of them at the moment so I personally would not put anything past them.

Missile*

1andrew1 15-11-2022 22:09
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36140063)
They are getting the living crap bombed out of them at the moment so I personally would not put anything past them.

Missile*
Poland's an important ally of Ukraine. Such action would make no sense whatsover. Ukraine's plan is to regain its territory and it's been doing so quite effectively.

jfman 15-11-2022 22:15
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36140057)
No one is saying that. The Ukraine theory is that some of their anti-missle weaponry landed in Poland after incepting a Russian missile.
At least then we go down the collateral damage route.

Damien 15-11-2022 22:28
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36140067)
At least then we go down the collateral damage route.
If it turns out it was an incepted missile things will calm down. No blame will be placed on Ukraine because they have the right to defend themselves and it's just unfortunate some remains landed in Poland, people will be angry at Russia but it won't be an attack on a NATO country.

1andrew1 15-11-2022 23:01
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36140046)
They’ll invoke article 4, and do nothing.
Do not adjust your sets. You may have called this one right! ;)
Quote:
Poland 'set to trigger NATO's Article 4'

NATO ambassadors will meet tomorrow at the request of Poland on basis of the alliance's Article 4, two European diplomats have told Reuters news agency.

According to Article 4 of the alliance's founding treaty, members can raise any issue of concern, especially related to the security of a member country.

One of the diplomats said NATO would act cautiously and needed time to verify how exactly the incident happened.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...itics-12541713

Pierre 15-11-2022 23:19
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36140072)
Do not adjust your sets. You may have called this one right! ;)

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...itics-12541713
First time for everything. ;)

Chris 15-11-2022 23:35
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36140061)
What's RT? clearly the answer is no
Russia Today. A Russian state-sponsored TV news network which until recently was an important plank of Russian foreign policy, through which they shaped European populations’ attitudes towards Russia, and attitudes towards their own countries in ways judged to be in Russia’s interests. Bizarrely tolerated by broadcasting regulators in multiple countries until the outbreak of war in February when it was forcibly shut down.

Ultimately run by the delightful Margarita Simonyan, who regularly pops up on Russian TV to demand the state commit more war crimes in Ukraine.

Jaymoss 15-11-2022 23:41
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36140074)
Russia Today. A Russian state-sponsored TV news network which until recently was an important plank of Russian foreign policy, through which they shaped European populations’ attitudes towards Russia, and attitudes towards their own countries in ways judged to be in Russia’s interests. Bizarrely tolerated by broadcasting regulators in multiple countries until the outbreak of war in February when it was forcibly shut down.

Ultimately run by the delightful Margarita Simonyan, who regularly pops up on Russian TV to demand the state commit more war crimes in Ukraine.
Arrr cheers :)

Dave42 16-11-2022 00:22
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Farage gone full nutcase being a Putin apologist no surprise it was on fox news what a joke the far right are

https://twitter.com/localnotail/stat...53921680474119

Hugh 16-11-2022 00:37
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
The same people who were adamant the Russians didn’t shoot down MH17.

Remember when Russia shot down a plane over Ukraine killing 298 people including 80 children - and then tried to blame everyone and everything apart from Russia….

Mick 16-11-2022 01:33
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
BREAKING: BALI, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Global leaders gathered for the G20 meeting in Bali, Indonesia, were holding an emergency meeting on Wednesday after deadly explosions in Poland that Ukraine and Polish authorities said were caused by Russian-made missiles.

The meeting was convened by U.S. President Joe Biden, the White House said, after two people were killed in an explosion in Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland near the border with Ukraine. - Reuters News Agency.

Paul 16-11-2022 02:39
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
BBC;

Quote:
We're now hearing from US President Joe Biden, who says it is "unlikely" that the missile responsible for killing two people in Poland was fired from Russia.

He says there is "preliminary information that contests" whether the incident in Poland was due to a missile fired from Russia.

"I don't want to say that until we completely investigate, but it's unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we'll see."

Damien 16-11-2022 05:38
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Lends more theory to an intercepted missile

Chris 16-11-2022 09:58
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Of course, even if the fragments are from a Ukrainian air defence missile, it’s important not to forget it wouldn’t even have been in the air had Russia not been in the process of committing war crimes in the country (I.e. deliberate targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure).

If the US has been looking for a pretext to upgrade Ukraine’s precision missile arsenal with longer-range rockets that can start taking out Russian launchers from further afield, then this is it.

jfman 16-11-2022 10:14
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36140091)
Lends more theory to an intercepted missile
I’m unsure how Ukraine targets a missile that “wasn’t fired from Russia” over Poland.

Chris 16-11-2022 10:19
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36140109)
I’m unsure how Ukraine targets a missile that “wasn’t fired from Russia” over Poland.
Much depends on the altitude of the intercept and the direction of the missile(s). It’s all ballistics - these are facts that can and will be determined soon enough. An impact at high altitude can spread debris for many miles.

Russians have targeted Lviv using air-launched rockets in the past, so range of ground-launch stations to the impact site are a red herring for those conspiracy-minded people apt to assume this was some sort of false flag op.

jfman 16-11-2022 10:26
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36140112)
Much depends on the altitude of the intercept and the direction of the missile(s). It’s all ballistics - these are facts that can and will be determined soon enough. An impact at high altitude can spread debris for many miles.

Russians have targeted Lviv using air-launched rockets in the past, so range of ground-launch stations to the impact site are a red herring for those conspiracy-minded people apt to assume this was some sort of false flag op.
However that’s clearly not what he says. A Russian missile shot in any direction by an interceptor is clearly still a Russian missile. Nobody disputes that.

pip08456 16-11-2022 10:29
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Breaking Initial findings suggest the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, according to US officials

jfman 16-11-2022 10:32
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36140114)
Breaking Initial findings suggest the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, according to US officials
As was indicated by the selective language used.

Hugh 17-11-2022 16:53
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36140085)
The same people who were adamant the Russians didn’t shoot down MH17.

Remember when Russia shot down a plane over Ukraine killing 298 people including 80 children - and then tried to blame everyone and everything apart from Russia….
And on that note…

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63637625

Quote:
MH17: Three guilty as court finds Russia-controlled group downed airliner

A Dutch court has found three men guilty of murder for shooting down a passenger jet over eastern Ukraine in 2014, killing 298 people.

The court found that a Russian-made missile supplied from Russia and fired by an armed group under Russian control brought down flight MH17.

The men - two Russians and one Ukrainian - were found guilty in absentia and sentenced to life in jail. A third Russian was acquitted…

… The judges ruled that it was a deliberate action to bring down a plane, even though the three found guilty had intended to shoot down a military not a civilian aircraft.

- Igor Girkin, the military leader of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, was convicted of deploying the missile and seeking Russian help
- Sergei Dubinsky was found to have ordered and overseen the transport of the Buk missile launcher
- Leonid Kharchenko was found to have overseen the Buk, acting on Dubinsky's instructions.

Oleg Pulatov was the only one of the four accused to have legal representation at the trial. The judges acquitted him, although they found he knew about the missile.

jfman 17-11-2022 17:28
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
One can but wonder if the Ukrainians who fired a missile into Poland - albeit they intended to hit something else - will face murder charges.

The Article 4 chat has gone quiet.

Itshim 17-11-2022 17:52
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36140257)
One can but wonder if the Ukrainians who fired a missile into Poland - albeit they intended to hit something else - will face murder charges.

The Article 4 chat has gone quiet.
You can't be serious :D

jfman 17-11-2022 18:00
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Itshim (Post 36140263)
You can't be serious :D
Not particularly serious, no. Except on Article 4.

Hugh 17-11-2022 18:51
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36140264)
Not particularly serious, no. Except on Article 4.
Perhaps they’re consulting NATO Members?

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm

Like they did in February…

https://news.sky.com/story/poland-wh...state-12748438

Quote:
On 24 February 2022, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia requested to hold consultations under Article 4 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine

jfman 19-11-2022 02:13
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...Ukrainian.html

Might be worth invoking Article 4 sooner rather than later if we can’t trust the Zelensky regime to at best establish facts from their own military or at worst tell the truth.

---------- Post added at 02:13 ---------- Previous post was at 02:09 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36140108)
If the US has been looking for a pretext to upgrade Ukraine’s precision missile arsenal with longer-range rockets that can start taking out Russian launchers from further afield, then this is it.
And worryingly if Ukraine was looking for one.

Jaymoss 19-11-2022 09:47
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36140380)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...Ukrainian.html

Might be worth invoking Article 4 sooner rather than later if we can’t trust the Zelensky regime to at best establish facts from their own military or at worst tell the truth.

---------- Post added at 02:13 ---------- Previous post was at 02:09 ----------



And worryingly if Ukraine was looking for one.
I still think there is a chance it was an attempt at escalation and Zelensky knew about it all along. He can not be trusted I tell ya

Chris 19-11-2022 10:31
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
20 years of dedicated GRU information ops really have helped condition the wider battle space in Putin’s favour. Or parts of it anyway.

Hugh 19-11-2022 10:32
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36140380)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...Ukrainian.html

Might be worth invoking Article 4 sooner rather than later if we can’t trust the Zelensky regime to at best establish facts from their own military or at worst tell the truth.

---------- Post added at 02:13 ---------- Previous post was at 02:09 ----------



And worryingly if Ukraine was looking for one.
Must be a real dilemma for you - who not to believe less, the USA or Zelensky… ;)

Chris 19-11-2022 10:48
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
I nearly posted this last night, as it is tangentially interesting. Here it is now anyway.

This is part one of a short essay examining the idea that the Soviet Union did most to win WW2, on the basis that the Eastern Front was more significant. The author (A St Andrews University academic, Philips O’Brien) argues first that there’s a broad correlation between those likely to believe the USSR basically won the war (as opposed to the Western allies), and those who believed Russia would easily win in Ukraine, and to a lesser extent continue to believe that the tide will eventually turn, and/or that Ukraine should negotiate now.

https://open.substack.com/pub/philli...oviet-power-in

Jaymoss 19-11-2022 11:52
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36140392)
Must be a real dilemma for you - who not to believe less, the USA or Zelensky… ;)
Trust only makes you easier to fool

Hugh 19-11-2022 12:40
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36140395)
Trust only makes you easier to fool
Being cynical makes you miserable…

You shouldn’t trust blindly, but if you don’t trust anyone at all, that’s just being bitter, negative, and not allowing yourself to be open to others, and allowing others to be open to you.

Trust, but verify… ;)

Jaymoss 19-11-2022 12:46
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36140396)
Being cynical makes you miserable…

You shouldn’t trust blindly, but if you don’t trust anyone at all, that’s just being bitter, negative, and not allowing yourself to be open to others, and allowing others to be open to you.

Trust, but verify… ;)
You personally can not possibly verify anything you are told about this war. You can look online and read things people say but that verifies nothing

Not trusting people in power is my default. People I have got to know personally get my trust or not depending on their actions. I give everyone a chance.

Hugh 19-11-2022 13:03
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
https://wapo.st/3UOTbRX

Quote:
[/b] Ukraine says missile parts that landed in Poland may have been Ukrainian[b]

KYIV, Ukraine — So many missiles were fired by Russia and Ukraine during the Russian attack on Ukrainian infrastructure Tuesday that the missile fragments that struck Poland could have been of either Russian or Ukrainian origin, Ukraine air force spokesman Yuriy Ignat said.

In an interview Friday, he described an intense battle during which at least 50 missiles were flying through the air within a matter of minutes near the Polish border in western Ukraine, with at least 20 fired by Russia and 30 fired by Ukrainian air defenses as Russia launched its biggest attack yet on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. They were among a total of 96 missiles fired by Russia that day, 77 of which were shot down, he said.

“Anything could be the result of this air defense battle,” he said, acknowledging that at least some of the missile parts could have been Ukrainian.

His comments appeared to signal a further softening of Ukraine’s insistence that the missile parts that killed two Polish grain workers were not of Ukrainian origin, despite initial findings by investigators that they belonged to Ukrainian S-300 antiaircraft missiles. President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier this week that he had “no doubt” the missiles were Russian but later said he couldn’t be “100 percent” sure the missiles weren’t Ukrainian.

Ukraine shot down 15 Russian missiles in the vicinity of the border region, but at least five more struck targets near the Polish border, meaning that Russia launched at least 20 missiles into the area, Ignat said. Ukraine’s air defenses typically fire at least two antiaircraft missiles at incoming ones, “so we can assume at least 30 missiles were launched from our side,” he said.

Ukrainian experts have now joined the Polish and American investigators who are looking into the causes of the explosion that killed two workers at a grain-drying facility in the Polish village of Przewodow, about four miles from the Ukrainian border, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. He thanked Poland on Twitter for granting access to the Ukrainian investigators.

Whether the missile parts that struck Poland were Ukrainian or Russian is irrelevant, Ignat said, because Russia bears ultimate responsibility for attacking Ukraine.

Paul 19-11-2022 13:16
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
The one part you can trust is true ;

Quote:
Russia bears ultimate responsibility for attacking Ukraine.

Chris 19-11-2022 13:49
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36140397)
You personally can not possibly verify anything you are told about this war. You can look online and read things people say but that verifies nothing

Not trusting people in power is my default. People I have got to know personally get my trust or not depending on their actions. I give everyone a chance.
Except people in power - you don’t give them a chance, as you haven’t met them personally. Or am I misunderstanding you?

Hugh 19-11-2022 14:26
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36140392)
Must be a real dilemma for you - who not to believe less, the USA or Zelensky… ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36140395)
Trust only makes you easier to fool
To clarify - the point I was trying to make (obviously not clearly enough) was that jf has been very clear (repeatedly) in previous posts that he does not trust the USA or Zelensky - but there he was using something the USA said (in the Daily Mail, funnily enough, another one of his bête noires) to support his assertion that Zelensky couldn’t be trusted.

I was merely highlighting the cognitive dissonance… ;)

Itshim 19-11-2022 17:30
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Sorry but I do not think that NATO would admit that it was russian . whether it is or not

Jaymoss 19-11-2022 17:32
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36140403)
Except people in power - you don’t give them a chance, as you haven’t met them personally. Or am I misunderstanding you?
Not really the personal meeting with those in power as in mind they always work to an agenda or a party line and in the case of politicians they rarely give a straight answer to any difficult questions. It is not really the person it is what is behind the person in power I do not trust

jfman 19-11-2022 17:59
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36140391)
20 years of dedicated GRU information ops really have helped condition the wider battle space in Putin’s favour. Or parts of it anyway.
You say this as if the CIA haven't done the same for 50 years. The silence on this thread when it was revealed it was a Ukrainian missile, in contrast to the frothing at the mouth of the previous 24 hours, spoke volumes.

---------- Post added at 17:59 ---------- Previous post was at 17:54 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36140392)
Must be a real dilemma for you - who not to believe less, the USA or Zelensky… ;)
When their interests diverge I'd reluctantly pick the USA. The comedian clearly isn't a trustworthy ally, indeed perhaps not an ally at all just a useful fall guy.

The USA for their faults are an ally with a mutual interest in not starting World War 3 for a small amount of already disputed land at the Russia/Ukraine border.

---------- Post added at 17:59 ---------- Previous post was at 17:59 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36140389)
I still think there is a chance it was an attempt at escalation and Zelensky knew about it all along. He can not be trusted I tell ya
Well, it's more likely than it actually being a Russian missile I'll give it that.

Hugh 19-11-2022 18:13
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
So, the Russians invading Crimea & other areas in 2014, and then the other Oblasts this year, makes those areas "a small amount of already disputed land at the Russia/Ukraine border."?

Pretty sure they weren’t "disputed" until the Russian forces & militias annexed them and turned them into "Peoples’ Republics"…

jfman 19-11-2022 18:21
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36140423)
So, the Russians invading Crimea & other areas in 2014, and then the other Oblasts this year, makes those areas "a small amount of already disputed land at the Russia/Ukraine border."?

Pretty sure they weren’t "disputed" until the Russian forces & militias annexed them and turned them into "Peoples’ Republics"…
And here I was assuming the World War 3 part was the key part of my post and not what constitutes a dispute over land in the past.

Hugh 20-11-2022 01:18
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Let’s totally ignore how we got to where we are, and just focus on the bit that supports my proposition…

https://media.tenor.com/BzdybKbJj7gA...g-goalpost.gif

jfman 20-11-2022 02:24
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36140462)
Let’s totally ignore how we got to where we are, and just focus on the bit that supports my proposition…

[img]Download Failed (1)[/img]
Well that's the NATO enforced Ukraine stance after all. Welcome, Hugh!

Maggy 20-11-2022 09:29
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
So has anyone got anything NEW to add to the discussion? Has anything actually happened in the last few days?Or are we still at the disagree about everything anyone has to say stage?

Sephiroth 20-11-2022 15:46
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
A couple of days ago, Sunak visited Kiev.

Hugh 21-11-2022 09:47
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36140463)
Well that's the NATO enforced Ukraine stance after all. Welcome, Hugh!
Thanks for the clarification - relieved to hear it’s nothing to do with Russia invading and annexing another countries lands, sorry, "already disputed land*", then saying they’d to the same to other ex-Sov countries…

Phew…

* ™ Russia Today

Sephiroth 21-11-2022 10:27
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
It seems to me that Ukraine will be brought to its knees by reason of Russian missiles.

Chris 21-11-2022 13:15
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36140538)
It seems to me that Ukraine will be brought to its knees by reason of Russian missiles.
There’s very, very little historical precedent for that. Bombing campaigns tend to harden resistance in the population. If the missiles were destroying Ukraine’s capacity to conduct military operations, you might have a point. But they aren’t.

Damien 21-11-2022 15:17
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Also, Russia is reportedly running out, hence using fewer premise ones more recently.

I still think this most likely ends unofficially if Ukraine takes back enough.

Chris 21-11-2022 17:06
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36140543)
Also, Russia is reportedly running out, hence using fewer premise ones more recently.

I still think this most likely ends unofficially if Ukraine takes back enough.
The Russian campaign has been utterly boneheaded from the outset. Not only did they not realise they would have to actually properly invade and fight to take the country, once they did so they continually underestimated their opposition. Worse, they have treated the people under their control with such utter brutality that no Ukrainian leader could agree to terms as long as any prospect remains of liberating Ukrainian citizens from it. Ukraine has every incentive to fight and none whatsoever to negotiate. Plus their idiot propagandists on state TV are now cheerfully spelling out how Ukraine needs to be bombed into the freezer and then a peace negotiated that lasts long enough for Russia to re-arm and start again.

Sephiroth 21-11-2022 17:47
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36140545)
The Russian campaign has been utterly boneheaded from the outset. Not only did they not realise they would have to actually properly invade and fight to take the country, once they did so they continually underestimated their opposition. Worse, they have treated the people under their control with such utter brutality that no Ukrainian leader could agree to terms as long as any prospect remains of liberating Ukrainian citizens from it. Ukraine has every incentive to fight and none whatsoever to negotiate. Plus their idiot propagandists on state TV are now cheerfully spelling out how Ukraine needs to be bombed into the freezer and then a peace negotiated that lasts long enough for Russia to re-arm and start again.

I don't think that Chris' accurate analysis, leads me to conclude that Ukraine will win against Russia. The proposition that Russia won't win is predicated on two factors: (1) They are running out of missiles (but are they?); (2) Resistance by the population will stiffen such that Russia won't win (is that right?).

I suppose one can argue the toss over what constitutes a "win" for Russia or a "lose" for Ukraine. But Ukraine without electricity in November, if that happens, is not going to win. Electricity won't be restored quickly and people will do what they need to to survive - as in migrate, leaving Ukraine more-or-less empty into which Russia could walk.

pip08456 01-12-2022 21:07
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
I liked this headline for the story.

Getting to the Bottom of Hungary’s Russian Spying Problem.

Quote:
A flash drive containing classified data, reportedly discovered hidden in the anus of an agent trying to cross the Ukrainian-Hungarian border, illustrates how Hungary has become a hub for Russian spying.
https://balkaninsight.com/2022/11/30...pying-problem/

Seph, back-up of power supply is on its way.
UK funding to help repair Ukraine’s damaged energy systems and get power back to Ukrainian people.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/u...rainian-people
Quote:

the support will help with essential repairs to critical energy infrastructure following ongoing Russian attacks, and will reconnect households and key facilities to power supply
the UK is the largest donor to the Fund so far, along with sending hospital generators and a financial guarantee for Ukraine’s state-owned energy provider

Ukraine will have further UK support to keep the lights on across the country and repair energy infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks, Foreign Secretary James Cleverly announced today.
US Is Sending Ukraine $53 Million to Help Repair Electrical Grid.

Quote:
The US is giving Ukraine more than $53 million to help repair electrical infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks in recent weeks, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced Tuesday.

The package will help Ukraine buy transformers, circuit-breakers, vehicles and other equipment, Blinken announced Tuesday on the margins of a NATO foreign ministers’ gathering in Bucharest. The US wants to get the equipment to Ukraine quickly to restore power as winter sets in.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...lectrical-grid

pip08456 02-12-2022 19:45
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1670010088

The Bank of Ireland has also suspended their account, fuel cards for vehicles have also been withdrawn.

Seems like Irish companies don't want to do business with them.

Electricity companies next?

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/iris...nment-26635546

Sephiroth 02-12-2022 20:16
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Unless Ireland breaks off diplomatic relations with Russia, then the 1961 Vienna Convention applies.

Quote:
Article 25
The receiving State shall accord full facilities for the performance of the functions of the mission.
Of course, any reasonable person hopes the the Russian Embassy staff get a taste of their own medicine in the winter. However, "right" is on Russia's side in this case and the Irish government will have to deliver fuel or whatever.

Damien 02-12-2022 20:46
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Yes, it's a bit odd. We generally leave embassies alone because we want our own to be protected abroad as well. It's usually one of the last things to go before a war between countries.

Paul 02-12-2022 22:15
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Seems like another case of targetting the wrong people.

The staff at the embassy did not start the war, nor can they stop it.

TheDaddy 02-12-2022 22:28
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36141084)
Seems like another case of targetting the wrong people.

The staff at the embassy did not start the war, nor can they stop it.
Who else can the Irish companies target? At least these people work on behalf of the Russian government

Sephiroth 02-12-2022 22:31
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
As I said, the Irish government must step in to meet their obligations.
The private suppliers cannot be compelled to do anything. Very nice.

Paul 02-12-2022 22:42
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36141085)
Who else can the Irish companies target? At least these people work on behalf of the Russian government
Why should they "target" anyone ?

Chris 02-12-2022 23:48
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36141089)
Why should they "target" anyone ?
Oh I don’t know, maybe due to revulsion at war crimes, possible genocide, and a perfectly human desire to do something about it, however indirect?

Only one person actually started the war (or can stop it), but that doesn’t make the government that works for him any less complicit. And that does include embassies, many of which have been enthusiastically tweeting Russian government propaganda since last February.

Paul 03-12-2022 00:37
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36141094)
Oh I don’t know, maybe due to revulsion at war crimes, possible genocide, and a perfectly human desire to do something about it, however indirect?.
Right, because "revulsion" is now a reason to target anyone ..
Those staff have not committed any war crimes, or any genocide.

You seriously think they should be targetted and suffer for actions totally beyond their control ?
Targetting them is not actually going to do "something about it" or achieve anything, it will have no effect on the war.

I'm quite sure some of them support their govt, I'm quite sure some dont.
Those that dont probably quite like still being alive, so they are not going to make waves about it.

Maggy 03-12-2022 09:35
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36141082)
Yes, it's a bit odd. We generally leave embassies alone because we want our own to be protected abroad as well. It's usually one of the last things to go before a war between countries.
:tu:

Chris 03-12-2022 10:56
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36141097)
Right, because "revulsion" is now a reason to target anyone ..
Those staff have not committed any war crimes, or any genocide.

You seriously think they should be targetted and suffer for actions totally beyond their control ?
Targetting them is not actually going to do "something about it" or achieve anything, it will have no effect on the war.

I'm quite sure some of them support their govt, I'm quite sure some dont.
Those that dont probably quite like still being alive, so they are not going to make waves about it.
Yes, because denying them supplies isn’t depriving them of life. The embassy can just send them home. They can just resign and go home themselves. If they choose to remain in Ireland under such conditions, and continue to advocate for the Russian government, then that’s their choice. It’s a proportionate response by Irish citizens against those whose whole reason for employment is to tell the world that what Russia is doing is acceptable.

Paul 03-12-2022 18:31
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36141103)
Yes.
Pity, I always thought better of you. :td:

jfman 03-12-2022 19:08
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36141122)
Pity, I always thought better of you. :td:
It’s ultimately a war about ideology, common sense has long since departed. Might as well be in the 1970s again.

Russian citizens are fair game.

Chris 03-12-2022 19:27
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36141122)
Pity, I always thought better of you. :td:
For what? Agreeing that it’s a good idea to refuse to facilitate the propaganda operations of a genocidal regime?

Even Jesus wasn’t afraid to run people out of town with a whip, if the offence was grave enough. ;)

Paul 03-12-2022 19:43
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36141128)
For what? Agreeing that it’s a good idea to refuse to facilitate the propaganda operations of a genocidal regime?
Nice try, but nope.
I see no point in further posts about it.
My point is/was clear, your view, equally so.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36141127)
Russian citizens are fair game.
So it would appear.

TheDaddy 03-12-2022 21:15
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36141127)
It’s ultimately a war about ideology, common sense has long since departed. Might as well be in the 1970s again.
As more rapes and atrocities are uncovered I'd have thought it was more like 1945

Quote:
Russian citizens are fair game.
Bet you felt terrible for the oligarchs to

Sephiroth 03-12-2022 21:47
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
This discussion is getting ridiculous.

Irish businesses don't want to supply products and services to the agents of genocide.

Unless diplomatic relations with Russia are severed, the Irish government is under a legal obligation to facilitate the normal functioning of the Russian embassy.

All very simple, really.

Hugh 04-12-2022 00:39
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36141127)
It’s ultimately a war about ideology, common sense has long since departed. Might as well be in the 1970s again.

Russian citizens are fair game.
Russian citizens abroad, in the employ of the Russian Government, are fair game to be targets for economic sanctions…

Article 29 of the VCDR states that:
Quote:
’The person of a diplomatic agent shall be inviolable. He shall not be liable to any form of arrest or detention. The receiving state shall treat him with due respect and shall take all appropriate steps to prevent any attack on his person, freedom or dignity."
It doesn’t state you have to sell/supply them with goods and services - in fact, I can’t find anything in the VCDR that states that…

https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instr...s/9_1_1961.pdf

Sephiroth 04-12-2022 07:39
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36141139)
Russian citizens abroad, in the employ of the Russian Government, are fair game to be targets for economic sanctions…

Article 29 of the VCDR states that:

It doesn’t state you have to sell/supply them with goods and services - in fact, I can’t find anything in the VCDR that states that…

https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instr...s/9_1_1961.pdf
It is unlikely that the Vienna Convention would contain words that you cooked up. But it does contain:

Quote:
Article 25
The receiving State shall accord full facilities for the performance of the functions of the mission

jfman 04-12-2022 08:36
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36141131)
Bet you felt terrible for the oligarchs to
Not particularly, anyone with that amount of wealth almost certainly hasn’t acquired it legitimately.

---------- Post added at 08:36 ---------- Previous post was at 08:33 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36141139)
Russian citizens abroad, in the employ of the Russian Government, are fair game to be targets for economic sanctions…

Article 29 of the VCDR states that:

It doesn’t state you have to sell/supply them with goods and services - in fact, I can’t find anything in the VCDR that states that…

https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instr...s/9_1_1961.pdf
And what of Russian citizens in need of consular assistance? Collateral damage?

The self same people we think should rise up and overthrow Putin we are inconveniencing, ironically providing evidence for the Russian propaganda machine along the way.

Hugh 04-12-2022 09:48
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Mmmm, yes, I can just envision the Russian Embassies wanting to facilitate the return of those who wish to "rise up and overthrow Putin", but not being able to do so because of Irish sanctions…

jfman 04-12-2022 10:15
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36141148)
Mmmm, yes, I can just envision the Russian Embassies wanting to facilitate the return of those who wish to "rise up and overthrow Putin", but not being able to do so because of Irish sanctions…
What about a bland passport renewal? As far as I know Russians don’t have to wear badges with their political affiliation so I’m unsure how the Embassy could offer services on a selective basis.

Maybe the West should cut to the chase and issue badges with “Russian - pariah” for Russians to wear outside Russia. Then we can know who to deny jobs, education, economic opportunity to, etc.

Maggy 04-12-2022 10:28
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
This thread seems to have jumped into a huge rabbit hole..

Damien 04-12-2022 11:26
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36141133)
This discussion is getting ridiculous.

Irish businesses don't want to supply products and services to the agents of genocide.

Unless diplomatic relations with Russia are severed, the Irish government is under a legal obligation to facilitate the normal functioning of the Russian embassy.

All very simple, really.
Yeah, I don't understand the issue here. The Irish (and British) state should do the minimum required to meet the obligations of having a functional Russian embassy. They don't owe Russian diplomats much else.

Hugh 04-12-2022 14:01
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36141150)
What about a bland passport renewal? As far as I know Russians don’t have to wear badges with their political affiliation so I’m unsure how the Embassy could offer services on a selective basis.

Maybe the West should cut to the chase and issue badges with “Russian - pariah” for Russians to wear outside Russia. Then we can know who to deny jobs, education, economic opportunity to, etc.
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1670162601

Sephiroth 04-12-2022 14:14
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36141171)
Talk about hyperbole.

jfman 04-12-2022 15:20
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36141171)
From the man who reduced all embassy or consular services to this:

Quote:
Mmmm, yes, I can just envision the Russian Embassies wanting to facilitate the return of those who wish to "rise up and overthrow Putin", but not being able to do so because of Irish sanctions…
I agree, it’s funny.

TheDaddy 04-12-2022 16:30
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36141145)
Not particularly, anyone with that amount of wealth almost certainly hasn’t acquired it legitimately.
and yet they're all part of the same apparatus, at different levels admittedly

Hugh 04-12-2022 16:42
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36141177)
From the man who reduced all embassy or consular services to this:

Quote:
Mmmm, yes, I can just envision the Russian Embassies wanting to facilitate the return of those who wish to "rise up and overthrow Putin", but not being able to do so because of Irish sanctions

I agree, it’s funny.
That’s an interesting interpretation of my post…

Sephiroth 04-12-2022 16:45
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36141145)
Not particularly, anyone with that amount of wealth almost certainly hasn’t acquired it legitimately.
<SNIP>
Depends what you mean by 'legitimately'. Yeltsin created the legal framework through which state companies could be bought by individuals.

jfman 04-12-2022 17:00
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36141180)
Depends what you mean by 'legitimately'. Yeltsin created the legal framework through which state companies could be bought by individuals.
A legal framework drowning in corruption isn’t legitimate.

Sephiroth 04-12-2022 17:13
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36141181)
A legal framework drowning in corruption isn’t legitimate.
As I said, it depends on the meaning of the word. It was legitimate in Russia then.

tweetiepooh 05-12-2022 09:59
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Cynic mode on.
Irish companies slated because they are supplying Russian embassy.
Irish companies "boycott" embassy.
Russia complains to Irish government.
Irish government say it's a private matter.
Embassy says there is a duty to supply under various conventions.
Irish government force companies to resume supplies for legal reasons outside their control.
Companies resume supply pointing to government.
UN slated for not allowing companies to "boycott" embassies of "nasty" countries.
UN ignores comments.
Everyone is happier.
Cynic mode off.

ianch99 05-12-2022 15:51
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36141127)
It’s ultimately a war about ideology, common sense has long since departed. Might as well be in the 1970s again.

Russian citizens are fair game.
You forgot to complete your sentence:

Quote:
Russian citizens, who choose, voluntarily, to work for and represent an autocratic regime currently committing war crimes on defenceless civilians, are fair game

jfman 05-12-2022 16:14
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36141219)
You forgot to complete your sentence:
No it was complete as is, thank you.

It’s not the civil servants working in an embassy that are impacted if it ceases to function - they’ll still get paid to put their feet up or get redeployed elsewhere.

It’s the service users - ordinary Russians. I get that being an alien concept to some.

ianch99 05-12-2022 16:28
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36141224)
No it was complete as is, thank you.

It’s not the civil servants working in an embassy that are impacted if it ceases to function - they’ll still get paid to put their feet up or get redeployed elsewhere.

It’s the service users - ordinary Russians. I get that being an alien concept to some.
You seem to prioritise the very small number of Russian citizens in Eire over the Irish people's ability to exercise their rights not to do business with the Russians. Let the Irish make their choices and the Russian Government can handle the consequences. After all, they have the money to handle the fallout.

Sephiroth 05-12-2022 16:36
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36141229)
You seem to prioritise the very small number of Russian citizens in Eire over the Irish people's ability to exercise their rights not to do business with the Russians. Let the Irish make their choices and the Russian Government can handle the consequences. After all, they have the money to handle the fallout.
Hmmm.


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