Re: Coronavirus
 

One can only die of covid19 this year ,staying in and wearing a piece of paper over your mouth has cured all manor of illness that have baffled medical science , all hail paper and loneliness.

Re: Coronavirus
 

You're not one for letting facts getting in the way of your opinion, are you? ;)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...s/november2020

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...4&d=1609239307

Re: Coronavirus
 

That is very interesting.

Almost without exception, every other cause of death has fallen.

That is pretty much unbelievable - unless deaths are being incorrectly attributed to Covid rather than underlying health problems...... :scratch:

Re: Coronavirus
 

It’s not unbelievable in the slightest. It is known that mortality from Covid increases with age. It is also known that it kills far more rapidly than any of the other diseases listed in the graph, with the possible exception of flu. This year, Covid has been killing off significant numbers of sick, old people who might otherwise have lived for some months before dying of something else.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's called Harvesting or Mortality Displacement IIRC. Where COVID 'brings deaths forward' by a few months.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well if these spikes don't go back down we are probably dealing with more infectious strain and we will be stuck like this until spring.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I predict that based on those figures in five years we will be immortal, as long as we have a yearly covid jab.

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.sciencemuseumgroup.org.u...rus-the-spike/

This article explains how the spike works. Very interesting.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Nope, as noted, most people dying from covid have 'underlying' health conditions as well, its simply that covid is getting them first, rather then the underlying condition.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Great article, thank you! It will be interesting to see how these new spike mutations work at the structural level and this article gives a nice background.

I have looking in vain to find either the amino acid sequence or structure of the spike produced in cells from the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccines to see how they compare with the native spike from virus without success. Guess it’s a secret!

Re: Coronavirus
 

Everyone has to die at some stage, so if someone didn't die from Covid they will die from something else, underlying condition or no underlying condition.

In which circumstances won't you accept Covid 19 as the cause?

Re: Coronavirus
 

:confused:

Maybe you need to go back and read it all again, as the question makes no sense.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It looks like there will be more fresh tier decision announcements tomorrow.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-new...-jabs-12174643

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ns-source-says

Re: Coronavirus
 

Huge increase today: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...orded-12174911

Re: Coronavirus
 

The only way I can see that the NHS won’t collapse under the pressure, and to get the level of infections down is for there to be a total national lockdown, schools shut, all non essential retail, churches & sport the whole works, a curfew may well be needed as well

If we don’t we could be seeing 100,000 cases in approx three/four weeks time.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The thing is we're about a week away from the Christmas impact being known. This number is people who 'got it' around a week or a week and a half ago. All people who may have been moving around the country and into homes as of last Friday....

Hopefully not but this could be about to get really, really bad.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Also worth considering the following

15k out of the 53k cases are in London
Today’s case numbers will be possibly low due to yesterday being a bank holiday.
The hospitalised figure (iirc 22k) hasn’t been updated since 22nd December

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

London’s increases are for fairly self explanatory reasons
Schools will undoubtedly have some effect
People suffering from weariness in sticking to the rules

Two reasons that I can think of off the top of my head

Re: Coronavirus
 

The evening news said that they're thinking about making the restrictions even tighter because of the rise in cases.

I wonder what that could mean for those in the highest tier? I can't think of much else they can do, maybe a curfew like some other countries have??

Re: Coronavirus
 

I would suspect a stop to all sports, religious services, all building work etc. Curfew possible

Schools it will appear will be the very last to close

Re: Coronavirus
 

Schools are already planning for remote learning in Scotland - it was announced at the end of term. The start date has been pushed back to 11 January and all classes will be online until 18 January at the earliest. Staff are to report to school on the original start date to commence planning and provide childcare for key worker and vulnerable children. These children will be able to attend school in person throughout while everyone else is online. Our school has now got everything running through Google Classroom and all the kids have Chromebooks. They’ve been told that unlike the spring lockdown they won’t be given a block of work to complete during the week, but will be expected to be online for each virtual class, delivered according to the usual timetable (much to my kids’ disgust).

Re: Coronavirus
 

As long as restrictions are proportionate, localised and targeted. ( but they won’t be, based on past performance)

The government are paying the price for not putting London in T3, and then trying to put the genie back in the bottle by introducing T4.

Re: Coronavirus
 

As long as we we don't let paranoia set in and go full on nuts.

Re: Coronavirus
 

We are paying the price now for not factoring schools into the circuit breakers.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That ship sailed a long time ago.

Re: Coronavirus
 

IMHO I think we are past the point of localised restrictions, and I’d rather we over compensated as opposed to another futile dilly dallying.

Your last sentence is absolutely bang on

Re: Coronavirus
 

Don't i know it;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

We have had hospitals declaring critical incidents due to oxygen shortages. We have patients on trolleys, thirteen hour admission times (which means btw that ambulance crews cannot get back out where they’re needed as they have to legally stay with the patient until handed over)

We’re not far away from what’s happening to hospitals in LA County they’re now turning ambulances away

If the NHS gets overrun we are screwed

Re: Coronavirus
 

All due to piss poor planning by the Government/ NHS.

It’s almost as though the NHS is under more pressure in the winter, who could have possibly predicted that the usual winter pressure the NHS experiences would be increased by a winter COVID spike........I mean who?......................

Re: Coronavirus
 

They could open the Nightingale hospitals or are they just ornamental.

Re: Coronavirus
 

This has been covered - lack of staff to man them.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I don’t think it’s as simple as that but it holds a degree of responsibility I think things such as how many nhs staff are off sick/self isolating. Also, how many vacancies does the nhs have something like 38,000 of which 15,000 are nursing. Etc etc need to be factored in.

---------- Post added at 19:22 ---------- Previous post was at 19:21 ----------


And staff them with.....?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well seeing as we aren't at war with anyone [significant] we could get the military/Defence Medical Services involved .

Re: Coronavirus
 

The defence medical personnel that already are working in NHS hospitals , as there hasn’t been designated military hospitals for fifteen years ?

The defence medical personnel that are already (where possible) working alongside frontline NHS staff ?

Re: Coronavirus
 

We have some defence medical personnel in our city hospital as the military hospital down here was closed in 1995.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yep, that was the last year there was a military hospital. St james cook uni hospital (Middlesbrough) is the same.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That didn’t work in Wales so why would it work here?

---------- Post added at 19:56 ---------- Previous post was at 19:54 ----------

We don’t need to shut the schools if there’s testing at the school gates. The measures already in place have not had time to show results yet. Knee jerk reaction not required.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Posted earlier in this thread - in case you missed it.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...y#post36060237

Re: Coronavirus
 

Why stop now, thats how its been working since the summer.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think the point of a military shadow NHS not being a thing is regularly made but the theory resurfaces more often than Only Fools and Horses on GOLD. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

I did miss it, thanks for the info, just begs the question why build hospitals that cannot be manned?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Politics.....

Re: Coronavirus
 

Crisis management.

They’re only to be used if things get really bad, on the basis that treating people somewhere is better than not treating them at all. If they are used, then anyone who can possibly do anything remotely useful will be used along with them.

This country had a standing army of 0.8 million in 1939, including Territorials. It had 2.9 million by 1945. In a crisis, those hospitals will be operational, one way or another. If it came to volunteering to learn how to do basic hospital tasks so the pros can do the technical stuff, I’d be there. I’m sure I’d not be the only one to answer such an appeal. In an existential crisis parliament does of course have the absolute power to enact a conscription programme of one sort or another.

Re: Coronavirus
 

And do what though? They built the Nightingale hospitals but can't really staff them. Even if they had started a year ago in anticipation of COVID being an outbreak there is no way they could have addressed the staffing issue, an increase in Doctors and Nurses would have to be a product of policy changes years ago. You can't scale up staff.

The NHS is thankfully seeing less of a strain of the seasonal flu but that advantage has been drowned out by the level of COVID cases.

The only realistic measure to stop cases is to stop the spread by reducing the number of connections the public has. We're talking stricter lockdown measures and more places being closed.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Regrettably so. A robust lockdown enabled Wuhan to hold a massive pool party a few months ago. Forget travel outside your area or catching flights abroad. Not a wishy-washy lockdown with schools and universities open. A month of tough love and the country will be in a very strong position. BoJo needs to step up strongly against the noise from his party's Covidiots like Sir Graham Brady.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It actually did in Northern Ireland - they doubled the October holiday and halfed their cases.

Please wait while I laugh my arse off at the idea of this Government delivering mass testing on that scale.

I hope your new year resolution isn't to be as consistently wrong about Covid-19. Maybe we will have a hot summer next year, eh?

---------- Post added at 00:33 ---------- Previous post was at 00:20 ----------

It's the last roll of the dice. The Oxford vaccine is unfortunately the only solution the UK Government have in town that will see any semblance of normality before Q3 2021. Hence our rush to approve it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The good news is the Oxford Vaccine has been approved: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280671

This is the one that's easier to distribute and administer, this is the one we have the most orders for.

It's a race against time now.

---------- Post added at 07:24 ---------- Previous post was at 07:11 ----------

Essex calls a major incident: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...cases-12175318

Re: Coronavirus
 

The emergency measures are necessary only until the vaccine has reduced hospital admissions to a safe level. The vaccine alone should ensure that happens by February or March. We don't have to wait for herd immunity before we can go back to normal since most people do not get ill enough (or at all) to be taken into hospital.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Do you really think that Kier's rabble could have done any better? ROFLMAO

It's down to the civil servants to deliver and that they have failed to do and will continue to do so.

Mass test and trace: No. Mass vaccination: no.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I have not been consistently wrong on this. It is true that influenza is seasonal and many thought that this coronavirus would be too in the early days, but the concept of 'herd immunity' was clearly correct because that is exactly what will see us through this crisis. Thankfully, we will be able to achieve it through the new vaccines coming through, but even a couple of months ago, there was no guarantee that we would get one, let alone this early.

I have consistently said that unless you let the virus take its course, we run the risk of mutations, which could have serious consequences. What have we seen in recent weeks? At least one serious mutation that is spreading much faster, although thankfully it does not appear to be more deadly and is still treatable via the vaccine. It is worrying, however, that it is affecting younger people more, and if that trend is enhanced by further mutations, there could be very serious consequences.

I remain of the view that we should protect the vulnerable and let the virus pass quickly through the healthy population. That way, and now with the aid of the vaccine, we will achieve herd immunity all the quicker.

However, with hospital admissions causing major problems, I accept that it is likely that the government will keep tough measures in place until February or March, despite the PM's natural instincts.

---------- Post added at 08:27 ---------- Previous post was at 08:19 ----------

Agreed. The civil servants provided over-optimistic information to the government, and the government trusted them to achieve those promises. When they could not be fulfilled, the government took the blame. They have had to withdraw schemes that clearly did not work and they have come to the realisation that the government itself must be more hands-on, which is not how things are supposed to be.

Feathers are being ruffled in the civil service due to the frustration of ministers that these plonkers couldn't organise a fry up in a chip shop, and a big reorganisation is coming. In the meantime, the government is taking control of the situation and I think we can all see that things are really beginning to happen now.

Re: Coronavirus
 

BoJo’s supporters mantra - "it’s someone else’s fault".

His Government sets policy and direction, and on COVID, it has been erratic and contradictory.

His Government bent the rules to ensure that companies with no experience in supplying PPE were given huge contracts which often failed to deliver.

His Government outsourced Track and Trace with little oversight, and that’s gone so well.

The First Rule of being in charge is "The Buck Stops Here" - the person/people in charge are responsible, and blaming those further down the line is just trying to avoid responsibility.

"things are really beginning to happen now" - the entire country going into lockdown, COVID case numbers highest ever, more and more people unemployed; things are really beginning to happen, but perhaps not in the manner you meant...

Re: Coronavirus
 

God forbid we ever hold the Government accountable for running the country.

It's always someone else's fault.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's the government who awarded emergency contracts to inexperienced firms, some on the basis of being friendly with MPs and Ministers. It's the government who outsourced Track and Trace to private companies without consulting Councils and GPs on the best way of doing this. It's the government who delayed the lockdown Sage was asking for in the Autumn.

It may well have had the best of intentions in all these matters. But the results have been sub-optimal resulting in the worst economic performance of any G7 country and high rate of fatalities.

But I do give full credit to the government for approving the Pfizer-BioNtech first and getting the first person in the World vaccinated.

Re: Coronavirus
 

There could be a job for you in politics:)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Contrary to many other people on this forum, I am not a health care expert, immunologist or Virologist.

But they have had nine months notice to plan for this scenario and failed to.

This current scenario must have been a “what if” question way back.

A second wave was predicted, usual winter pressures were predicted. So none of this should have been a surprise. The only variable is this new strain that has increased the infection rate in parts of the country.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Strange how they did not use the same whataboutery tactic when other governments have been running the country.

If responsible governments make mistakes they should own their mistakes and not divert the blame elsewhere.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Neither am I but at the same time, it's possible there is no good answer. As much as we should hold the Government and the NHS to come up with solutions we should also acknowledge that some problems aren't perfectly solved.

There is a pandemic. It's spread by human interaction. The more people interact the more people catch it, a subset of which will end up on hospital and a further subset will end up in ICU. The 'experts' have come up with a vaccine in record time and they've also discovered treatments which reduce the ICU admittance rate and the death rate.

But still the numbers are too much to deal with.

Yes there has been a failure here but the only failure I can see is the lack of a lockdown coming into December? We cannot scale hospital capacity easily.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It’s equally up to Government to promise what’s deliverable - not what makes for a good headline to distract from whatever disaster happens on a particular day. See Operation Moonshot.

Blaming the Civil Service is simply laughable.

---------- Post added at 09:57 ---------- Previous post was at 09:49 ----------

How does letting a virus infect more people reduce the chances of mutation?

Even with a vaccine announced this morning you still persist with this flawed mantra.

The PM’s natural instincts appear to be to ignore Sage, go public with some bluster and create a distraction supported by his poodles in the media.

Is there any evidence of this?

I’m sorry I don’t have the Conservative Party HQ set of blue tinted sunglasses. If Civil Servants have failed to deliver (entirely speculative on your part) why do the Government continue to rely upon them and make announcements based on their advice?

Equally, it’s not Civil Servants who have squandered £22bn on Test and Trace that’s, as ever, private sector failures to unaccountable companies creaming off money from the taxpayer to over promise and under deliver. Sound familiar?

---------- Post added at 09:58 ---------- Previous post was at 09:57 ----------

Government failure so bad even Pierre can see it!

Re: Coronavirus
 

Back after most of December on leave (thanks to summer hols cancelled) and I mostly read this from work (via VPN at moment). Just some comments on some of above

1)Local lockdowns may work in larger countries where local could be as big as the UK and the population are compliant and the authorities more authoritarian. Just look at the headlines for people visiting Brecon and another migration from London to second homes of those that can afford it.

2)Finally went to my dentist in a fairly Asian area (need to go for some further work if restriction allow). Lots of Asiatic people both customers and staff in shops without masks. My family report the same in other similar areas.

3)Of course there should be some blame with the civil service and all the other layers of bureaucracy. Will always slow things down, put up objections (sometime valid) or even occasional deliberate interference.

4)I'm looking forward to going out without a mask and giving hugs to friends. To meeting at church, singing together, being with large groups of kids. Able just to decide on the spur which restaurant to go into. Maybe a little way off but hopefully not too far.

5)Whatifs are easy after the event. Certainly a second wave was likely and we don't know what was planned. Health authorities probably did have plans and are implementing them, it would be worse if they hadn't. But they also have to take care of the non-Covid now issues. My wife and I both need tests and scans, not cancelled yet but could be. Will that cause worse issues down the line? How is that fair and the same for other "pushed" out by covid? Would that be better/worse if capacity had been held for 2nd wave? If no second wave but everything geared to one who gets the blame for all the problems that would cause?

It's not been a nice year. Work hasn't changed too much, with my team scattered over the UK it's just moved from different offices to different homes but same work/tasks etc. It's the fun, outside office stuff that's been affected. At least with Tier 4 archery outside is still allowed - bit chilly but we can do it.

Keep safe everyone.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I see the Government have masterminded another “short cut” giving more people the first dose and changing the timeframe from the second dose to 12 weeks from 4 weeks. Once again looking for an easy/quick way out rather than put in the hard graft.

Anyone aware of any other countries taking this step?

Hopefully doesn’t have a significant impact on effectiveness and/or gets more people the Pfizer vaccine.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Sorry to hear about your former brother in law Seph.

Unfortunately, while cleaning is important, you can clean everything as much as you like but while there's an airborne virus in a closed environment you can't reduce the risk to zero. Well, you can, but it'd involve everyone running around like the guys in the Intel ads circa 2000.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The longer gap is as recommended by the JCVI. It believes there is a greater benefit in some protection for more people, than greater protection for fewer people. It is also weighing (as yet unpublished) evidence that the second dose may be more effective if the gap between doses is longer.

Given that our public vaccination programme is ahead of everywhere else in the world, it’s not necessarily surprising if we’re the ones innovating. Not everything has to be a short-cutting, complacent wheeze. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

What a star!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-b1780017.html

Re: Coronavirus
 

Confirms that he has no life outside of work, no wonder he's lockdown mad.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The proof will be in the pudding I guess when the results come in. Being ahead of the rest of the world can either be through being truly innovative, or taking short cuts. Our emergency authorisation of untested products isn't necessarily indicative that we are "ahead" - simply that he situation is so grave that we weigh up the risks and reach an earlier conclusion.

If, for example, they believe the Oxford vaccine and it's lower effectiveness is at greatest risk of failing as mutations emerge the risk based approach would be to get it out there as quickly as possible. I doubt such information would go into the public domain due to being alarming. There would always be positive spin.

Re: Coronavirus
 

You’re sounding alarmingly like a bacofoil salesman this morning jf. What “untested” products are you aware of that the rest of us aren’t? (You can’t be talking about either one of the two vaccines approved for use in the UK, which are manifestly not “untested”). Your second paragraph is, as far as I can see, fevered speculation, based as is on information you admit wouldn’t be made public even if it did exist ...

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's possible that inbuilt delays in the system are being short circuited. Maybe other medications awaiting approval are being pushed down the queue.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I would like to echo the sympathies to you and your family.

In general, there has been some remarkable success in reducing hospital acquired (nosocomial) infections. This study show some amazing reduction in cases of the usual suspects for hospital infections such as MRSA and digestive diseases. A lot of this is down to effective cleaning. Incorrect use of anti microbial cleaners can be worse than none as it will tend to select for the real nasties. The evidence of surface transmission for SARS-COV2 seems to be weak. However, it is very difficult to socially distance while being treated in hospitals which is why the staff wear so much PPE everywhere.

Hospital infection control will always be a risk/benefit equation. If you want to prevent hospital acquired infections, the best way is to not have any patients. This was of course the approach used, cancelling elective and non-urgent procedures. However, this of course is not sustainable in the long term and there will be non-COVID cases that cannot wait (I enjoyed this with my daughter where we spent a week in hospital together while she was being treated)

Strict separation of COVID and non-COVID areas is the first line of defence if the layout of the hospital allows this. However, the upshot of this is staffing. ICU care is incredibly staff intensive and this takes staff away from other areas.

By the way, if you want to donate to the staff of your local hospital, the most welcome gift right now is good quality hand cream. The amount of hand washing and sanitising going on right now is insane and it wrecks the skin. We sent a whole bunch of Vaseline Intensive Care cream to the team who looked after our daughter and it was very well received!

Re: Coronavirus
 

Even when we’re ahead, you just have to criticise!

Re: Coronavirus
 

I shouldn't have used 'untested' I agree, but not going through a full authorisation process hence emergency use being authorised given the emergency.

I certainly hope I'm wrong with my glass half empty view and that these risks pay off but administering the vaccine 12 weeks apart and not 4 is untested in that respect.

---------- Post added at 12:01 ---------- Previous post was at 12:00 ----------

Last time I checked we had free speech.

Re: Coronavirus
 

breaking

Covid-19: Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280671

Re: Coronavirus
 

What? Doing his job? Only as much a star as my binmen

Re: Coronavirus
 

Sadly we are not all wearing masks, I see many covidiots not wearing masks or just wearing them under the nose

Re: Coronavirus
 

If the circumstances change; which they have with the more infectious variant; then it's logical for the Government's approach to change.

Interestingly, they seem to be following Tony Blair's suggestion from a week ago.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-b1777845.html

---------- Post added at 12:53 ---------- Previous post was at 12:50 ----------

Very sorry to hear of your loss, Seph.

Re: Coronavirus
 

In fairness I'm less likely to trust an economic think tank fronted by a war criminal than Pfizer on how to distribute their vaccine.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Prime minister Boris Johnson will hold a press conference at 5pm GMT this afternoon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55478521

Re: Coronavirus
 

I have to admit I ignored the Blair headlines the other day on the basis that it was Blair. However having now read it, it seems he has either had sight of the same papers coming out of the JCVI, or else a second peer group that has reviewed where we are, and the data around the way the vaccine provokes immunity over two doses, and has come to the same conclusion as the JCVI, namely that the level of immunity after one dose is useful enough that vaccinating lots of people once outweighs the benefits of having fewer people vaccinated twice. He also seems to allude to the same emerging research that a longer gap between doses is more beneficial.


Indeed.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Just found an interesting paper in preprint status - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...0222315v1.full

This is a study of 12million people in the UK looking at differences in infection rates, hospitalisation, ICU admissions and deaths and whether those people have children or not. The conclusions are;

• If you have kids aged 0-11, the there is no increased risk of infection, hospitalisation or ICU admission but a reduced Risk of death for under 65s
• If you have kids aged 12-18 the there is an increased risk of infection but no other increased rates (hospitalisation, ICU admission and death) for under 65s
• Living with kids if any age reduces risk of non-COVID related death for under 65s
• For over 65s, there is no. Additional risk or reduction of risk living with kids of any age

There are some limitations in the study as it is a very broad one and they are listed in the paper.

The big questions are why this counterintuitive result happened and there are some ideas around cross protection due to other coronavirus infections, parental lifestyles being better than non-parental and general fitness of parents. I like the idea of the general snottiness of kids being protective for all who come into contact with them.

Big implications for school opening though.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Presumably, it mitigates in favour of opening schools?

Re: Coronavirus
 

This was clearly something being discussed internally at either JCVI and/or elsewhere and he knew who the right people to ask about COVID and vaccines were. He obviously didn't randomly come to the same conclusion on his own.

His comments were met with derision by all the 'medical experts' on Twitter but it turns out a Prime Minister of 10 years probably has experience in quickly identifying who to listen too and which information is relevant.

Re: Coronavirus
 

As I said previously it'll be interesting to see which countries adopt this approach and (if published) the emerging scientific evidence for it and ultimately the outcomes that result.

I've been fairly cynical so far today so to continue in that vein a British Establishment echo chamber supporting reopening the economy might not necessarily give the best health outcomes in the medium to long term. Personally I was half surprised Blair didn't sign the discredited Great Barrington declaration.

The United States certainly appears under a lot of Covid pressure at the minute so I'd be keen to see if they adopt this approach.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That’s what I am reading from it with primary schools being slightly safer than secondary.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

One of the useful aspects of the UK government’s very early decision to treat this as a public health issue rather than a civil contingencies emergency is that it has left policy, where it was already devolved, in the hands of the devolved governments. The UK government has provided additional support in some areas, especially logistics with lab testing and military support, but the day to day decisions on how to organise lockdowns and now, how to organise vaccine rollout, are in the purview of Welsh Labour and the SNP.

Obviously there have been variations in the way lockdowns have been timed and how severe each tier of lockdown is, however overall, they have much more in common than not. Given Nicola Sturgeon, in particular, never normally misses an opportunity for differentiation and constitutional mischief making, this speaks volumes about how far the UK government is motivated by keeping the economy open and how far it’s actually following the science. It will be educational over the next few weeks to see whether the vaccine rollout strategy in Scotland or Wales diverges significantly from England.

British establishment echo chambers are anathema to Scottish nationalists. If that’s what is driving the emerging discussion around vaccinating more people once rather than fewer people twice, then we can expect Sturgeon not to touch it with a 10ft pole.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The Scottish Government is following the advice of the same group as the UK Government, so I doubt they will have separate scientific evidence to justify diverging.

As I say, let’s see what other independent countries do. Especially those primarily rolling out the Pfizer vaccine which I think they’ve said is 91% effective with one dose.

The change from 2 weeks to 12 weeks obviously allows them to push higher the figures for those vaccinated without such pressure on the ability of the distribution chains to ramp up. From the Government that counted a left glove separate from a right glove to massage the figures of PPE available I think I’ll retain my healthy scepticism towards British exceptionalism for now.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It looks like Matt Hancock will most likely announce these as the new Covid tiers in his announcement very soon.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...accine-updates

Re: Coronavirus
 

There are the unknowns...

It’s not clear at this point if the potency of the new strain is down to an increased effectiveness of the spike, better escape from the immune system, higher viral load when infected, higher susceptibility of children, or a combination of all of these factors.

It has always been the big question - do kids get infected and do kids spread it when infected? The study I posted answers the second part without answering the first, namely kids, if infected (and we don’t know this) don’t make parents and Carers sick. Of course, this might change with the new variant but either the study has not been done (or completed) or the data is not good enough yet.

Testing data is seemingly showing high levels of infection in kids. Of course, we don’t have much testing data for asymptomatic people including kids over the period that study covers.

If, and it is a very big if, the new variant is simply just more infectious, i.e. the R0 value is higher then all the numbers will shift somewhat towards the right in the diagrams in that paper. If the infectivity is 70% higher and the additional risks of kids being in school are tiny, then the risks from the new variant are 1.7x a tiny number.

In short ‘I dunno’.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I wonder what the practicalities are in moving to literally do vaccinations 24/7 with trained, but not medical, staff?

Old/at risk people during normal hours but then younger key workers over night if they desire it? Supermarket workers, drivers, teachers, transport staff, medical workers and so on?

Re: Coronavirus
 

You’re trying to have your cake and eat it.

The scientific advice is not the British establishment trying to keep the economy moving; it is a set of predictions of different scenarios based on best available evidence. The British establishment is in government. Its motives are rightly there to be scrutinised and criticised.

The SNP has access to the scientific advice. It also comes out in hives when forced to deal with the British establishment. If its actions are essentially similar to those in Ingerlund that casts doubt on your suspicion that decisions down south are being driven by establishment figures looking after their share portfolios. The SNP has no reason to mirror decisions that reflect the preferences of the establishment in Westminster.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Most of the SNP's advice isn't dramatically different either. It's usually just a little bit extra on top. If Boris Johnson was to announce school is closed for anyone aged over 6 the SNP will come out and say 'well, we're actually taking this seriously' and say anyone aged over 5 instead.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Precisely my point. They’re mad keen to differentiate even when acting on the same advice. You can bet the farm they’d pursue a different vaccination strategy if they thought the English one was being driven by English establishment greed and complacency rather than by the science.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating ... if we see a rapid, single-jab strategy rolled out in Scotland with a second jab delayed until spring, then we can be as confident as possible that both England and Scotland are following emerging clinical advice and making considered decisions based on that, and not on rather cynical concerns about the prosperity of wealthy English Tories.

Re: Coronavirus
 

and there is the honest answer for about 85% of the questions asked about Covid 19

Re: Coronavirus
 

Full list of all tier 3 and 4 changes efective from tomorrow.


https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...cases-12175609

Re: Coronavirus
 

I’m not trying to have my cake and eat it. Yes, some things the devolved administrations do varies and others it has aligned with UK advice (e.g. changing of the quarantine/self isolation periods). You are trying to justify the English position simply by narrowing the scope to whether Scotland agrees. It’s a big wide world out there. I don’t consider Scotland particularly exceptional either.

As I say, I’d be genuinely interested to see if other independent countries e.g. the United States go down this route. If they do we may be onto something.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Sick of all this Tier 3 and 4 bullshit, Sage advisors for the government has explicitly stated that it needs something more stronger than Tier 4 to stop this new variant, so what does Bojo go do....?

.....Place millions more in Tier 4, just issue another lockdown NOW, that you're going to have to do in a weeks time anyway, close all schools and stop doing this delay crap and get it done.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I fail to see why the European Union, United States or others wouldn’t jump at such a move if it were proven to be worthwhile.

---------- Post added at 15:48 ---------- Previous post was at 15:47 ----------

100% agreement from me.

Re: Coronavirus
 

BREAKING: COVID-19 Tally of 981 deaths in last 24 hours.

That is a LOT. :erm: