Re: Coronavirus
 

I said, when we were initially locked down, that it would be until the end of May, effectively two months, and I don’t see that changing.

Some restrictions may alleviate, piecemeal, before that, but I think general population until then.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

I don't think the UK's lockdown will last that long. The Chancellor will be wanting to avoid a collapse of the economy.

If there is no easing of these restrictions agreed in another three weeks, we will be in quite some trouble, I would have thought.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The economy or lives ? The economy is going to come second.

Re: Coronavirus
 

On the 23rd January China imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei and on the 8th April the Wuhan lockdown officially ended so l would imagine we are taking about that type of timeframe.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That’s 3 and a bit months and otherwise I would tend to agree, but China locked down a province, and we’re locking down a country.

So I might expect, depending on results, perhaps parts of the U.K. or certain sectors being relaxed, if after 2 months the evidence supported it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Thousands dying every day in the second wave isn’t going to do much for consumer confidence.

There’s already high level preparations in place for it to last 12 weeks. Boris himself said that’s the timeframe for “turning the tide”. To ease up after six we would as well not have bothered and concentrated our efforts on mass graves.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think that’s a reasonable assessment to make. I’d add one caveat which is that restrictions may be tightened or loosened based on geography also

Re: Coronavirus
 

Id love it to be as short as possible, but I'm expecting it to last until the end of May. Schools may be one of the first allowed back, and I'm informed (by insiders) that they are currently working on the assumption they will be locked down until after the May Bank Holiday. I'm expecting to be working from home until pretty much the summer. There may be some relaxations before then, but likely not many.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Wuhan is a province by Chinese standards but with a population of 58 million it has almost as many people in it as the UK does. The lockdown in Wuhan was extreme, and lasted 3 and a bit months with the result that infection rates came right under control. I’d say there’s every reason for the UK government to at least consider that as a model that worked, even if there are ultimately other factors here that mean I t doesn’t directly apply.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I agree, it could easily go that far, end of June. It all depends on the numbers. I think though, most people and businesses could potentially handle the 6-8 weeks and come out of it. 12 weeks could kill a lot of businesses.

Certainly construction would have major issues anything beyond 6 weeks.

Difficult times.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I read in my redtop today that bars and pubs are worried that the beer in the cellars will go past its use by dates if the lockdown continues for more than a few extra weeks and it'll have to be poured down the drain.

Apparently lagers have a 4 month storage life after delivery whereas real ale could be as short as six weeks.

Something like 50 million pints are at risk. :(

Re: Coronavirus
 

They should tell take away beers like they do in some European cities. Short refreshment for your one hour walk.

Re: Coronavirus
 

A couple links here as to regards to how long alcohol will last.

https://store.approvedfood.co.uk/blo...nd-food-dates/

https://www.healthline.com/nutrition...alcohol-expire

Re: Coronavirus
 

I suspect that it will only be a matter of time before it starts to kick off here as well if the lockdown continues too long.

Some sort of phased release is probably the way to go with the maintainance of the social spacing as far as possible and vulnerable groups encouraged to stay at home.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Indeed a phased release is pretty inevitable and even then it will be gently gently one suspects.

As for those in the vulnerable groups personally l think they will be asked to stay at home for a good period longer.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Saw this on Social Media

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's the craft beers and ciders (unpasteurised) that only have a short shelf life but are the better drinking that will go first. Like lots of "live" producers (farming, plant breeders, food production) these need help either to trade or cover losses. You can make and store a fridge but not the stuff you put in them.
Lots of milk is (or could) go to waste because users of large quantities aren't.
Bakers (inc hotels/restuarants) aren't using flour and millers aren't geared up to move production to smaller units.
Can we find ways for trade to continue safely? Could ease demand in supermarkets and help the producers.
---
Some items I've been monitoring prices have come down and availability is better. Hope those who were trying to price gouge learn a lesson. Thai rice for example though glutinous is harder to find - (one dodgy Amazon offer looks OK but careful examination shows that of the 1kg advertised only 480g is rice).
---
What I'm missing is church and working with the kids. Our big summer events are postponed and our US trip this year where the wife's family were gathering from parts of the world to celebrate what would have been their dad's 100th if also off and it looks like airfares could be higher if next year planes are only allowed to be half full.
Yes it's fairly trivial compared to what others are going through but it could indicate that even when the virus is "beaten" the effects are going to last a lot longer, wonder what the effects on lives around the world is and if extra deaths indirectly caused are going to get factored in when the great blame game starts.
---
Glad that the TV producers are finding different ways to get Stay at home across than the dour gent in the earlier messages who looked like he never enjoyed a moment in his life.
---
Wonder how the planned monitoring/notification app is going to work? How will it impact people who don't/can't use it? I don't have a mobile phone and I don't want movements/access to be curtailed because of that. And you ALWAYS have to think that while introduced to counter infection and is benign what would/could some future government/company do.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Not as simple as that. Eg if a small village has only 100 people, and most of them gather together at some point when just one person is currently infected, then a lot of them are likely to also end up infected. If instead only smaller groupings occurred then there would be a slower and/or less risk of spreading. Several identified cases around the world, where a group of 10-100 people have gathered and a large proportion affected as a result.

The size of the groupings leads to heavy mixing and interactions. So bans on gatherings such as parties, weddings, funerals, and religious gatherings must continue to be banned. One infected person would have the opportunity to infect a few dozen at a time.


If people are kicking off because of the lockdown, just think where would be if the lockdown had started earlier? Sound familiar?

Re: Coronavirus
 

We can't manage a pandemic by appealing to the lowest common denominator in society.

Of course had we started the lockdown earlier we could have less deaths, less infections and be closer to managing the spread - like Germany.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It

Was

A

Joke...

Re: Coronavirus
 

Germany didn't manage anything. They just had fewer points of introduction in the first place. Eg if the UK had 100 people bring it in to the country, and Germany had 10, then obviously Germany would be likely to have fewer cases. Bit of a simplistic example as many other factors are involved.

It's not something that spontaneously arises in 1 in 1m of the population, it has to be introduced and spread.


Eg if 2 tourists from Wuhan arrive in Northern Italy whilst heavily infected, then they are going to spread it to other tourists, who then return home.
3rd Feb

Re: Coronavirus
 

It is true though that this situation has benefited anti-social people. It's natural selection, they'll take over. Quite right too, people spending far too much time chatting about nothing. Stay apart and stop waffling is the way forward, we'll all be more productive ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

So do planes from Wuhan only fly "full" into London but one or two passengers into other countries? Do infected Europeans only cross Schengen borders in small numbers?

Your post, and links, are entirely speculative and unsurprisingly structured in a way to absolve our Government of any responsibility at all.

"If". These aren't known.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Don't forget the terms viral load and virus shedding.

If the 100 person village had 1 infection source and the whole village gathered. If the person was virus shedding but well enough to attend how much shedding and that single source would likely not be a high load to most attending. Yes - risk to the vulnerable but chances are not too catastrophic.

The problem is somewhere like London with lots of people crowded for more lengthy time into a small space with multiple infection sources. Even with low shedding (assuming higher shedders are sick and not there) the loading is much higher leading to more more severe infections and those infections also spreading more. You now also get a steep increase in sever infections putting demand on health service in one location. With London commuting you also get dispersal away from London of people that have suffered high viral load.

I do not want to live in a society where you are even more closely monitored and traced. I want to move freely, associate freely and not have some device/department keeping track or need to prove I can move around. I have a dry cough nearly permanently present for some time not virus related in any way. While I understand some nervousness at this time, I don't want to be curtailed or punished in any way because of it. I certainly don't want to wear a mask simply to ease fear around me.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Do you mean the Northern Italy that is not far from Germany, where in fact most of South Tyrol speak German, where lots of German tourists go ski-ing, and where you can drive to in three hours from Munich?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Here in lies the rub... it's not what YOU want. It's whats best for the health of the country as a whole. By this I mean the best for the vulnerable, the economy, the NHS staff and all other key workers.

I'm not keen on seeing monitoring the likes of Taiwan, Singapore & China have in place being implemented. However, if that's whats justifiably needed to help save as many people as possible until if or when a suitable vaccination is created or implemented. then it's just something that we're going to have to live with.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Britain's economy could shrink by 35% in the second quarter and see unemployment jump by two million, according to a scenario published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-econom...nario-11973048

https://obr.uk/coronavirus-reference-scenario/

Re: Coronavirus
 

For a country that prides itself on the Blitz spirit (not that most of the people who refer to it so often actually lived through the war) there’s an awful lot of people who are quite reluctant to just suck it up for 3-6 months.

Re: Coronavirus
 

First, mrmistoffelees has presented an almost perfect oxymoron. I needn't elaborate.

Secons, jfman in answering mrmistoffelees' post didn't address that point (nor the oxymoron!). And - exactly what is "an awful lot of people who are quite reluctant ..."? What facts does that statement represent, jfman being so keen on facts? Sorry mate.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Please, elaborate.... the post was written at speed as I'm doing several things at once.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Sorry Seph. I get that you want to talk about anything but the Government response to Coronavirus, however “facts, facts, facts” simply will not do it when others get to freely opine on what they think is going through the minds of the population at large.

It’s nice to see Sir Patrick Vallance acknowledge German success in in dealing with coronavirus.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-science-chief

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

It is clear to see that the UK has not made the correct decisions at the right time when compared to other countries.

What is also clear here is this handling of the crisis clearly puts an end to the myth of British exceptionalism, the theology that powered the Brexit crusade.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It’s easy to be a Monday morning quarterback - hindsight is always 20/20...

Learning from our mistakes is the important thing, not pillorying people for them.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I agree absolutely. I was once told that it is very rare that people do a job badly on purpose and that has stuck with ever since. Failures may be due to insufficient or incorrect information, misguided beliefs, insufficient authority to act and incorrect systems/tools. Malicious intent is very rare.

Now, once things have blown over, there should be a period of reflection, understanding what worked, what didn't and what could be improved if this happens again.

Now, if the lessons learned are not taken on board and acted on, that is a different story - we need to consider strongly if the people in charge are in the right jobs....

Re: Coronavirus
 

Not sure what this truism implies? Do not challenge why clearly wrong decisions were made?

If you are unable to determine why the wrong decision was made, who made it and what their reasoning was, you clearly run the risk of similarly bad decisions continuing to be made.

You can pillory people if you wish, I am more interesting in who made the decisions, when they made them and why they made them. In understanding this, you can learn from the process in time to save lives in the near future.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's not one or the other, and remember that if we ruin the economy by having a hugely extended period of lockdown, more people will lose their jobs as businesses fold and many will be plunged into poverty, which itself causes deaths. It is a matter of judgement as to how and when the current restrictions are eased, and you must remember that we are not going to stop the virus spreading to about 80% of the population. All we are doing is slowing it down so the NHS can cope.

This is not a time for party politics. We all have to pull together on this until the crisis is over. Obviously, any failings need to be put right straight away, but the time to scrape over the things that went wrong are for later. In the meantime, the vast majority of people are pleased with the way the government has dealt with this.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think you'll find your google search has only identified the stiuff you buy retail Den, not what traders are buying for sale through pubs etc. in casks etc. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Its quite hard to answer that question though as there are quite a few processes before it ends up in pubs , etc , etc so one could only hazard a guess to its shelf life once it gets there.

Not being a expert on it but some drinks would definitely have a much shorter use by date then others going by my own experiences working in a pub many years ago.

Re: Coronavirus
 

No, it doesn’t mean that.

It’s aimed at people who insist on attributing blame/fault before enough information is available, and those who ask why, in hindsight, why something wasn’t done that is only obvious after the fact.

I was always taught that ‘drains up" reviews must be de-personalised and not pre-judged, and ask "what went wrong", not "who did that wrong thing" - learn from mistakes, and if people did make wrong decisions, understand the reasoning behind those decisions, because as jonbxx said above, it’s rare that people actively do things wrong, it’s often unforeseen or changing circumstances.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I’m equally interested in what factors came into consideration, from who and when.

In the last two pages Old Boy has cited the Chancellor being keen to get the economy going next month. I’m sure he is, however if we are using the best scientific advice in a medical emergency then the economy shouldn’t factor into the decision making very strongly, if at all.

Unless of course we accept that as a reasonable balancing act in which case I think the Government should just front up that it finds X deaths as an acceptable figure if we can shorten the inevitable recession by Y months.

Re: Coronavirus
 

We will not avoid deaths by the measures being taken. We can only delay them.

If you think the economy isn't important in determining when the restrictions are relaxed, I don't think the majority would agree with you.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Citation, please?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Of course we will avoid deaths. Antibody tests, vaccines and a range of control measures, ensuring medical need doesn’t exceed supply.

The economy is important but can be underwritten by Government and the Central Bank. It’s literally their main function at this time. Money, as you consider it like a household budget, simply doesn’t exist at a macroeconomic level in the same way.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I just found out that mum will never walk again as the coronavirus attacked her nervous system.

She had it before I took her in, but she had no symptons. I live at home and don't know it I've had it either?

Tomorrow she moves to a nursing home, this is possibly a pemanent placing.

The home is 30 minutes away.

We may be able to visit and take clothing for her. This should help her start to eat as she is very low at not seeing any one.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That doesn’t answer my question, which was asking for evidence that the deaths weren’t being avoided, only delayed...

Re: Coronavirus
 

So sorry to hear about your mother hom3r... I am a maintenance person at a care home and it is a very worrying time. We do not accept any visitors into the home only medical personnel, this has been like this for the past three weeks. You will find this will be the case throughout the UK. Wishing you all well.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's the government position, Hugh. I thought you were good at Googling.

---------- Post added at 20:22 ---------- Previous post was at 20:13 ----------

Oh, it's news to me that you can have a test and you can avoid coronavirus! Has anyone told the virus that or is this just your command?

I'm sorry, mate, but we cannot avoid this as there is no way available yet that can stop the virus from spreading. Despite every effort of the care homes, the virus is still getting in and the death toll is dreadful.

As far as the economy is concerned, we cannot sustain the lockdown measures for long. Fortunately, we don't have an unsustainable deficit anymore, and interest rates are at their lowest in living memory. However, there is a limit to how much debt is manageable, and we cannot let too many businesses collapse - that would be truly disastrous.

Other EU countries are already starting to relax the lockdown, and I dare say we will learn a lot from that.z

---------- Post added at 20:24 ---------- Previous post was at 20:22 ----------

It's the medical evidence that the government has used to drive the policy.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Then you have to ask why slowing down the spread and delaying widespread infection until summer is magically going to stop or reduce deaths.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Here's your straw man you are looking for Old Boy.

There is - keep everyone apart as much as possible. Combined with mass testing and contact tracing (see South Korea) and it is possible. What countries need to wake up to is ceasing non-essential international travel completely.

Again applying household budgeting principles to the global economy is a flawed outlook. If the whole world is borrowing money to sustain their economies in a global pandemic the obvious question is who are we borrowing from and who do we owe it to? Who are they borrowing it from?

This is where the fact money is a human construct - it's not backed by anything like gold any more - is key. During an economic recession printing money is a perfectly reasonable way to increase money supply and stimulate growth. The risk - hyperinflation - is extremely low and the lever to control inflation (interest rates) has plenty of scope to rise to bring this under control.

The currency markets will be minimally affected as other currencies like the Euro and US dollar will experience the same.

We know what we need to do. Test and contact trace. It really isn't rocket science and has been the internationally recognised way to deal with pandemics for decades now.

Re: Coronavirus
 

A paper, published in the journal Science says physical distancing measures may need to be in place intermittently until 2022.

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb5793

Re: Coronavirus
 

Sorry Homer.

How long ago did you take her in?

---------- Post added at 21:45 ---------- Previous post was at 21:36 ----------

Leaving aside the fact that all we're ever doing is delaying deaths.....

The Government's approach now is to avoid deaths by controlling the rate of infection so that hospital capacity isn't overwhelmed. It's not true to say the current measures will only delay (for now) people's deaths. If we didn't have these measures then hospital capacity was projected to have been overrun resulting in a higher number of deaths.

What OLD BOY might be confusing that with is that long term one of the assumptions is that we cannot stop the virus and therefore there will be a given number of deaths and those deaths are being delayed and not avoided.

I.E The very fact we're delaying deaths itself lowers the overall death count.

Another thing is that by delaying the deaths we buy time for more effective treatments to be found which could save lives.

We might also - although I am skeptical of this - be able to open up against with aggressive contact tracing, social distancing and other measures to slow the infection rate so drastically that we reach a vaccine before the virus has infected everyone it theoretically could.

Re: Coronavirus
 

This is dreadful news, I’m very sorry to hear it.

You’re going to have a difficult few months but you can both come through it. And she doesn’t have to stay in a home half an hour away forever. Your local authority should provide you a list of approved homes that charge local authority rate. You will be able to find one that suits her and is a little closer to you.

Take your time, make use of your local CAB for advice and assistance and don’t let the authorities push you around.

Re: Coronavirus
 

You assume that no information was available and that the UK did not know what was coming. We had the luxury of a number of weeks before we became Italy. We literally could see into the future.

The advisors who came up with the initial Herd Immunity idea that delayed action for at least a week. Who are they and are they still advising the Government? The people that deliberately ignored the opportunity to get onboard the EU-wide procurement scheme for Ventilators and PPE, why did they make this decision and they still making similar decisions? They got it wrong then and they could get it wrong again.

When the WHO said the only way to combat this virus is to test, test and test again. Why did the UK choose to ignore this advice? What was the reasoning behind this.

Without challenge, the same mistakes can and probably will be made. You need to learn from your mistakes quickly and that process is to question, analyse, conclude and then act.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Sorry Hom3r, I want to echo what Chris has said.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think all of us echo what Chris has said.

Re: Coronavirus
 

+1

Re: Coronavirus
 

Part of your statement is the Government policy (the delaying part, trying to avoid the rapid spread of the virus and avoid overloading the NHS) - can’t see anything in the Government policy that states, as you did The latest comments from Neil Ferguson, the Government’s advisor, show deaths being avoided, not delayed (which is good news).

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/n...tist-rn5m6nggk Half to two/thirds is 6.5k to 10k people not dying.

However, happy to be shown otherwise if you can provide links to the Government policy that states the deaths are not being avoided, only delayed.

---------- Post added at 08:41 ---------- Previous post was at 08:40 ----------

Really sorry to hear this, Homer

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

I took her in on the 18th of April 1:20am



Luckily my sister knows friendinvolved with care homes.


It does help she works at a solicitors, an will email them from her work email (she's working from home), or print out contact deails on work headed paper.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It looks like the big boys, namely Glaxo Smithkline and Sanofi Pasteur are getting together to work on a vaccine - https://www.sanofi.com/en/media-room...04-14-13-00-00

These guys know their stuff and critically have the manufacturing scale at their plants in Belgium and France to get things done

Re: Coronavirus
 

Then add how long a general population will tolerate lock down especially in the less good winter months (it's one thing when it's nice outside and many people can access gardens, parks, open spaces) than when it's cold, damp and grey.

How long can you keep mass transit shut? Try distancing on crowded tube trains, buses and so on.

Universities, young people on own in halls and social distancing - yeah right. Schools can't stay shut forever, not all subjects can be taught and done at home. And kids need to interact - so do we for that matter.

You can't stop all non-COVID treatment forever either. And visits to friends and relatives in hospital can help recovery so that will need to start.

You can go on but the cost of maintaining "isolation" would far outweigh that from the virus directly even in terms of lives. There needs to be hope else things just disintegrate. People need to know that things will return to "normal", they can work, love, play, meet, enjoy life, build, move. To live not just exist.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

It’s literally been three weeks.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The herd immunity that we don’t know will work ?

---------- Post added at 10:57 ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 ----------

Quite, we’re being asked to work from home where possible, only go out if it pertains to the government’s instructions & finally to maintain social distancing when we do go out. In the grand scheme of things it’s not a lot to be asked compared to those who are providing essential services to the country.

People need to stop whinging and do as they’re asked

Re: Coronavirus
 

And what happens if we get COVID-20/21/22/23/30? Are they going to be like the cold so keep returning and reinfecting?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Compared to the great sacrifices made by those in the past surely that is not too much to ask of people...

Re: Coronavirus
 

Then it's probably Gods way to say we've effed up... And the way to thin the herd.

Re: Coronavirus
 

We’ve already had SARS 1 & MERS

What’s your solution? Allow the virus to sweep across the globe killing millions, overwhelming healthcare services, crippling economies perhaps worse than lockdown ?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yes - just 3 weeks with nice weather.

If you read accounts from other countries at the start it's all pretty OK. People cope OK, regard the novelty of it as part of the "game". It's after a while and it still continues that it drags and becomes harder.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Would you prefer it to be 'hard' or would you prefer to take your chances against a virus that little is known about, is highly contagious & no vaccine available currently?

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's highly unlikely, however we should be prepared. Have PPE available and a mechanism to quickly scale up testing. Intervene early, screen people at airports and isolate them as appropriate and contact trace. It's not rocket science and while moderately expensive by 2019 terms it's a relative bargain compared to a 35% drop in forecast GDP.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That is all true, herd immunity to a changing target is not likely. I think we also need to work globally and share more both is resource and information. If we can shut down infection closer to source before it spreads that becomes much easier to manage and is likely to be cheaper in the long run. That would mean maybe producing equipment that is portable so if infection starts in 3rd world it can be used there.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Hopefully consumers should find it a little bit easier to get hold of paracetemol after this deal.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/u...of-paracetamol

Re: Coronavirus
 

On a very positive side


A 99 year old Captain Tom Moore wanted to raise £1,000 for the NHS buy walkiing 100 lengths of his garden.

Well as of 12:58pm on the 15th of April.

It's at £6,305,649.00.

The Just Giving site is struggling to refresh, at one poit 90,000 people were donating at the same time.

https://www.justgiving.com/fundraisi...swalkforthenhs


A Pride of Britain award bekons

Re: Coronavirus
 

What we need is rain and lots of it..That would keep more people indoors.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Not much fun queueing at the shops / supermarket / pharmacy though :(

Re: Coronavirus
 

Hear hear ..

---------- Post added at 16:04 ---------- Previous post was at 15:53 ----------

If the vaccine is being manufactured in the EU, does that fact that we have left the EMA affect timely access to the vaccine?

Re: Coronavirus
 

As we are still in the transition we are still in the EMA.

Re: Coronavirus
 

GSK in the UK is working with its French rival on the vaccine so it's likely that it'll be manufactured in the UK as well so no need for the EU involvement.

Source

Re: Coronavirus
 

GSK doesn't really have vaccine manufacturing in the UK. The bulk of the local vaccine manufacturing is in Rixensart in Belgium. Blimmin huge site that too. However, it's not clear if the vaccine final formulation will be Sanofi, GSK or both.

(super geeky background, GSK is very good at whole viral vaccines, especially egg based products. Sanofi good at viral component vaccines)

On the regulation, the UK regulator (MHRA) is being super flexible on regulations so we would very likely take EMA approval directly even if approved after the end of the transition period. Where there's a will, there's a way...

Re: Coronavirus
 

Hence clinical trials

Re: Coronavirus
 

Even though you are CableForums most eminent chief virologist, the correct answer I think would be, we don’t know.

Unless you’ve done the research, of course.

Absolutely, I think a national store of PPE is required, depends on the shelf life as to how much we can stockpile.

Yes a “mechanism” - don’t know what it is, but we should have it.


Proven not to be effective during this pandemic.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con...0.25.5.2000080

I’m going to downgrade you to “junior virologist” for this error.


isolate them based on airport screening that is too inaccurate?

it certainly isn’t, it’s infectious disease management, when you don’t know the disease and you don’t know how infectious it is, you don’t know the mortality rate, you don’t know how if affects each individual............in short you know sweet FA about anything and you have to make decisions everyday based on the data of the previous day.

---------- Post added at 21:40 ---------- Previous post was at 21:35 ----------

I find the whole thing very civilised. I appreciate it may vary depending where you are and whilst the weather is good.

But I happily queue for about 5-10mins to get into my local Tesco or CoOp and it’s all very chilled and relaxed.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Also the EU thing really won't matter here. There is a lot of money being thrown at this and as soon as a viable vaccine is found it'll be produced on a scale never seen before.

Re: Coronavirus
 

You did note that was a reply to "lots of rain", right ?

---------- Post added at 23:44 ---------- Previous post was at 23:13 ----------

In other news, a 106 year old has recovered.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...ngham-52296196

Re: Coronavirus
 

No need, once again, for your childish insults. When was the last time we had a global pandemic on this scale?

It’s far from a regular occurrence. Therefore it can, to a person of reasonably average intelligence, be described as extremely unlikely for further deadly strains to develop in five of the next ten years.

If we can maintain nuclear weapons never used I’m sure PPE is achievable.

Yet other countries are doing these things and finding success. One internet story does not evidence make.

Airport screening may not get everyone, but as I’m sure you’ve observed more people out there with the virus = greater spread.

As you’ve selectively quoted my post to make fairly inaccurate analysis I’m going to upgrade you to “junior pedant”.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Your obviously didn’t even bother to look at the link. If you did you will have seen that it was not an “internet story” but a scientific paper written by the “ Members of the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) nCoV working group and published by the “European Centre for disease prevention and control

I know you’re Cable Forums Junior Virologist but these guys definitely out rank you.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

You will find that many different things, in isolation, aren’t considered effective. That doesn’t mean that combined with other measures they aren’t somewhat effective.

I know it’s quite big picture and that can be a struggle for some that get stuck in pedantry but closing schools “isn’t effective”, ending mass gatherings “isn’t effective”.

The obvious point being if we had a 100% effective method of preventing spread we’ve had done it now.

Lockdown measures are the aggregate of “ineffective measures” aiming to get to 100% effective. The article points to 44 out of 100 infected passengers being identified. Presumably, even an armchair analyst such as yourself would rather identify them than let them out into central London for the somewhat limited time and effort it would cost compared to say, the Chancellors support package and a 35% drop in GDP?

Re: Coronavirus
 

No surprise with Professor Neil Ferguson who on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that when the UK lockdown does eventually end, social distancing measures are likely to remain in place “indefinitely” until a coronavirus vaccine can be rolled out.

He also warned that it would not be possible to relax the lockdown until a significant infrastructure was in place.

Re: Coronavirus
 

h/t @gdinwiddie

Coming soon. https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1587028676

Re: Coronavirus
 

Haha very true, Hugh.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Very good, Hugh, but I don't buy it. When you think that one person coming into this country was responsible for causing this explosion of cases in the UK, there is no reason to suppose that the plateau will actually result in less cases than the peak. It will just mean that instead of a bigger rise in cases followed by a sharp fall, we will get a longer period of plateau, followed by a gradual fall. Some scientists think that there could even be several plateaux or mini-peaks as restrictions are eased.

So many people are underestimating the infectiousness of this disease and don't really grasp the principle of herd immunity. We are just buying time here so the NHS can cope. The virus will carry on infecting people until it has infected about 80% of us, many not knowing they have been infected.

The 'cure' will come when this has all fizzled out to a few isolated cases here and there.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Did they identify who this was?

I know that two people in York were identified as the first cases in the UK in late January, but I thought there more a week or so later down South?

Re: Coronavirus
 

That would be some lynching party if that was revealed ;)