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Chloé Palmas 24-06-2018 23:52
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35951695)
As an example, one simple way of overcoming the border issue between Ireland and Northern Ireland is to give NI membership of the WTO in its own right. That particular solution was put forward by Pascal Lamy himself, who is the former Head of the WTO.
When May was given the option of leaving NI in the CU to avoid a hard border, she said that would likely infringe upon UK sovereignty / might lead to a different differential deal for different parts of the union that not only angered the Scottish nationalists but apparently could risk the Union altogether ; now you are suggesting giving specific membership to NI in regards to the WTO and apparently that is not an issue of UK sovereignty / going to anger the SNP etc???

How is that possible - without involving an analogy of having cake, eating it too - drinking milk with it and having honey etc. I want to hear this....I can't wait.

1andrew1 25-06-2018 00:09
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35951695)
The problem is, Andrew, you see every difficulty as an insurmountable problem.

As an example, one simple way of overcoming the border issue between Ireland and Northern Ireland is to give NI membership of the WTO in its own right. That particular solution was put forward by Pascal Lamy himself, who is the former Head of the WTO.

As I have said many times before on this thread, solutions to intractable problems are often found by thinking outside of the box.

The NI border issue is a complete red herring and is not a 'barrier' to a successful Brexit. Solutions are available, although Barnier seems to enjoy rejecting everything put in front of him. He'd better make the most of it, because the clock is ticking (tick tock :D) and it will soon be time for him to get real and stop messing about.
I don't see every difficulty as an insurmountable problem, Old Boy. That's unfair. There were a number of quick wins with Brexit like equal settlement rights for EU27 citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU 27 countries.

I do think that the Irish border presents a very, very difficult and fascinating situation to solve.
Giving Northern Ireland membership of the WTO won't solve the issue. NI and Eire need something akin to a customs union and single market for a soft border and this on its own would not achieve it. That's what you'll find Pascal Lamy was talking about. This of course creates a hard border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and is unacceptable to the DUP.
The following quote gives some insight into Pascal Lamy's thoughts which I think you will find instructive.
Quote:
Lamy suggested one solution would be for the UK to give Northern Ireland the power to operate its own trade policy.
He cited the example of Macau in south-west China, which has a seat at the WTO as Beijing has allowed it to operate its own trade and customs policies.
Yet he acknowledged that even that arrangement would see the need for a border, either “north/south” or “east/west”.

“That’s an extremely politically complex question,” he added.
When asked by the DUP’s Sammy Wilson if a physical border along the land boundary is the only way of complying with the requirements of the WTO, Lamy replied: “Yes. That’s my view.
“I find the concept of a virtual border extremely interesting, attractive. But I’ve never seen a virtual border.”
He added that Sweden and Norway – respectively inside and outside the customs union – has border posts.
When asked if he could think of any examples of a “completely invisible” border between countries separated by a customs union, Lamy replied: “I can’t think of any examples of this kind.”
The Irish border situation has been unsolved for two years now so 24 months' thinking hasn't come up with a solution acceptable to the Brexiters, DUP or the Irish Republic.

I'm not sure why you're bothererd about Barnier. The UK Government hasn't actually proposed a solution to the border issue yet due to internal divisions. Both solutions under consideration are unacceptable to Ireland and the EU.
Quote:
Mrs May’s allies say the Chequers summit is likely to come down in favour of a variant of the so-called “maximum facilitation” customs proposal, which would use technology and trusted trader schemes to minimise disruption at the Irish border — but not remove it altogether. “It won’t run and there isn’t a single supporter of it in the EU and they won’t ever agree it,” Sir Ivan Rogers, Britain’s former ambassador to the EU, told an FT conference this month.
https://www.ft.com/content/f67f71f4-...1-31da4279a601

Sephiroth 25-06-2018 09:28
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35951702)
I did not say that they had something to do with each other. Your use of such adjectives to describe the EU betrays a lack of objectivity. You seem blinded by your hatred of the Eu to assess what might be a reasonable compromise.

You equate the use of the "turds in Brussels trying to screw us" as "serious adult debate"? Nil points from the UK jury :)
come off your high horse. You are not the UK jury. If the turds in Brussels deserve that description, then they shall have that description. I wouldn’t be far out in estimating that more than 17 million people agree with my characterisation.

And there you go again - assuming that I hate the EU. I don’t. I regard the German government as hegemonist, the French President as a wannabe, the combination of France and Germany as a further hegemonist force and the Brussels EU commission as a bunch of unelected turds (based on how they treating us with so much contempt). The use of the words “turd” and “screw” do not lessen the value of what I am saying; the words reinforce the value.

1andrew1 25-06-2018 10:03
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35951715)
come off your high horse. You are not the UK jury. If the turds in Brussels deserve that description, then they shall have that description. I wouldn’t be far out in estimating that more than 17 million people agree with my characterisation.

And there you go again - assuming that I hate the EU. I don’t. I regard the German government as hegemonist, the French President as a wannabe, the combination of France and Germany as a further hegemonist force and the Brussels EU commission as a bunch of unelected turds (based on how they treating us with so much contempt). The use of the words “turd” and “screw” do not lessen the value of what I am saying; the words reinforce the value.
You may think that the use of such adjectives do not weaken what you're saying but that doesn't mean that they don't.

papa smurf 25-06-2018 10:25
Re: Brexit discussion
 
:clap::clap::clap:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35951715)
come off your high horse. You are not the UK jury. If the turds in Brussels deserve that description, then they shall have that description. I wouldn’t be far out in estimating that more than 17 million people agree with my characterisation.

And there you go again - assuming that I hate the EU. I don’t. I regard the German government as hegemonist, the French President as a wannabe, the combination of France and Germany as a further hegemonist force and the Brussels EU commission as a bunch of unelected turds (based on how they treating us with so much contempt). The use of the words “turd” and “screw” do not lessen the value of what I am saying; the words reinforce the value.
:clap::clap::clap:

OLD BOY 25-06-2018 10:37
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35951706)
I don't see every difficulty as an insurmountable problem, Old Boy. That's unfair. There were a number of quick wins with Brexit like equal settlement rights for EU27 citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU 27 countries.

I do think that the Irish border presents a very, very difficult and fascinating situation to solve.
Giving Northern Ireland membership of the WTO won't solve the issue. NI and Eire need something akin to a customs union and single market for a soft border and this on its own would not achieve it. That's what you'll find Pascal Lamy was talking about. This of course creates a hard border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and is unacceptable to the DUP.
The following quote gives some insight into Pascal Lamy's thoughts which I think you will find instructive.


The Irish border situation has been unsolved for two years now so 24 months' thinking hasn't come up with a solution acceptable to the Brexiters, DUP or the Irish Republic.

I'm not sure why you're bothererd about Barnier. The UK Government hasn't actually proposed a solution to the border issue yet due to internal divisions. Both solutions under consideration are unacceptable to Ireland and the EU.

https://www.ft.com/content/f67f71f4-...1-31da4279a601
There are two possible solutions that have been put forward by our government just recently, but of course, rather than talk about how this might work, Barnier just dismisses all our proposals out of hand, because he's trying to ramp up the pressure. He is helped by the continual arguments that are being put forward by hostile remainers, who are doing their best to undermine the government's position by negatively influencing public opinion.

The point I am making is that there are many potential ways around this problem of the Irish border if the will is there and I think we should consider what is happening right now.

If we take a look at what happens at the external EU border currently, most of the necessary formalities are conducted electronically, with pre-arrival checks which in some cases are followed up at warehouses. Currently, the HMRC only physically checks 4% of goods arriving in the EU at the external border and the Irish authorities check only 1%.So, in practice, we are already seeing 95% of goods pass the border with no checks.

Given that, one can see why the government's two recent suggestions make sense, in particular, the idea of a maximum facilitation arrangement. This involves managing rather than eliminating customs checks, with more businesses being granted 'trusted trader' status. This allows traders to settle their dues at regular intervals rather than every time they moved goods across the border.

This is not a million miles away from existing arrangements, and to reject the idea out of hand does not exactly show Barnier in a favourable light. He will eventually have to face the wrath of the remaining EU countries if he rejects an arrangement that would benefit both sides.

Given the degree to which Ireland relies on trade with the UK, they would be stark, raving mad to follow Barnier's line for much longer. As I've said before, this is a show to get public attention and to strike the best deal for the EU. Say what you like about Theresa May, but she has not buckled under this pressure. Cameron would have shied away from the fight in the early stages, and Corbyn would buckle and ask the EU what else they wanted from us!

ianch99 25-06-2018 13:08
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35951715)
come off your high horse. You are not the UK jury. If the turds in Brussels deserve that description, then they shall have that description. I wouldn’t be far out in estimating that more than 17 million people agree with my characterisation.

And there you go again - assuming that I hate the EU. I don’t. I regard the German government as hegemonist, the French President as a wannabe, the combination of France and Germany as a further hegemonist force and the Brussels EU commission as a bunch of unelected turds (based on how they treating us with so much contempt). The use of the words “turd” and “screw” do not lessen the value of what I am saying; the words reinforce the value.
The use of such language distracts from the serious nature of the debacle the Leave vote has lead to. Calling the people we are negotiating with "turds" is just pathetic.

I would suggest that most of the people who voted Leave had a more adult perspective on why they voted the way they did.

---------- Post added at 12:08 ---------- Previous post was at 12:04 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35951715)
come off your high horse. You are not the UK jury
Do you ever watch Eurovision? :rolleyes: You are not supposed to think I am, personally, the "UK Jury". It was supposed to be a joke!

1andrew1 25-06-2018 13:55
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35951734)
Do you ever watch Eurovision? :rolleyes: You are not supposed to think I am, personally, the "UK Jury". It was supposed to be a joke!
I can't see him watching anything with "Euro" in the title. :D

Pierre 25-06-2018 14:32
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35951722)
There are two possible solutions that have been put forward by our government just recently, but of course, rather than talk about how this might work, Barnier just dismisses all our proposals out of hand, because he's trying to ramp up the pressure. He is helped by the continual arguments that are being put forward by hostile remainers, who are doing their best to undermine the government's position by negatively influencing public opinion.

The point I am making is that there are many potential ways around this problem of the Irish border if the will is there and I think we should consider what is happening right now.

If we take a look at what happens at the external EU border currently, most of the necessary formalities are conducted electronically, with pre-arrival checks which in some cases are followed up at warehouses. Currently, the HMRC only physically checks 4% of goods arriving in the EU at the external border and the Irish authorities check only 1%.So, in practice, we are already seeing 95% of goods pass the border with no checks.

Given that, one can see why the government's two recent suggestions make sense, in particular, the idea of a maximum facilitation arrangement. This involves managing rather than eliminating customs checks, with more businesses being granted 'trusted trader' status. This allows traders to settle their dues at regular intervals rather than every time they moved goods across the border.

This is not a million miles away from existing arrangements, and to reject the idea out of hand does not exactly show Barnier in a favourable light. He will eventually have to face the wrath of the remaining EU countries if he rejects an arrangement that would benefit both sides.

Given the degree to which Ireland relies on trade with the UK, they would be stark, raving mad to follow Barnier's line for much longer. As I've said before, this is a show to get public attention and to strike the best deal for the EU. Say what you like about Theresa May, but she has not buckled under this pressure. Cameron would have shied away from the fight in the early stages, and Corbyn would buckle and ask the EU what else they wanted from us!
^^^

this.

the only people pushing the idea of a hard border is the EU

they are using the good Friday agreement (something they have nothing to do with) as political capital

OLD BOY 25-06-2018 16:46
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas (Post 35951704)
When May was given the option of leaving NI in the CU to avoid a hard border, she said that would likely infringe upon UK sovereignty / might lead to a different differential deal for different parts of the union that not only angered the Scottish nationalists but apparently could risk the Union altogether ; now you are suggesting giving specific membership to NI in regards to the WTO and apparently that is not an issue of UK sovereignty / going to anger the SNP etc???

How is that possible - without involving an analogy of having cake, eating it too - drinking milk with it and having honey etc. I want to hear this....I can't wait.
Well, the idea of having NI become a member of the WTO in its own right and then choosing to mirror the EU customs regime was an idea put forward by Lamy, not me. The acceptable solution, no doubt, will be found from bringing together ideas from different solutions that are put forward. There are ideas out there - they just need to be brought together into something that is acceptable.

To my mind, the 'maximum facilitation' idea that has been put forward by the UK has considerable merit.

1andrew1 25-06-2018 16:46
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35951746)
^^^

this.

the only people pushing the idea of a hard border is the EU

they are using the good Friday agreement (something they have nothing to do with) as political capital
Incorrect.
WTO rules require a hard border if there was no agreement between the EU and a third country.
Ireland is concerned that a hard border would encourage the revival of terrorism and the EU is looking after its members' interests. The UK may have the upper hand when negotiating with Ireland but the position is reversed when the EU negotiates with the UK. Of course, the UK has yet to propose a solution for the Irish border as the cabinet is split down the middle on two impractical ideas. It will decide which of these ideas sinks the least in July.

jonbxx 25-06-2018 16:54
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35951746)
^^^

this.

the only people pushing the idea of a hard border is the EU

they are using the good Friday agreement (something they have nothing to do with) as political capital
If there's no deal, there's a hard border unless we are prepared to open up our borders to all nations. That's how the WTO works.

Though the EU had nothing to do with the GFA, two of its' members were involved and the other 26 countries are supporting the continuation of the agreement, hence the position agreed by the European Council.

OLD BOY 25-06-2018 16:59
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35951758)
If there's no deal, there's a hard border unless we are prepared to open up our borders to all nations. That's how the WTO works.

Though the EU had nothing to do with the GFA, two of its' members were involved and the other 26 countries are supporting the continuation of the agreement, hence the position agreed by the European Council.
If we don't get an agreement with the EU on the trade deal our Government is telling us is perfectly possible, and we revert to WTO rules, then I agree, we are talking about a hard border. It's really up to both sides to work together to avoid that situation.

jonbxx 25-06-2018 17:35
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35951760)
If we don't get an agreement with the EU on the trade deal our Government is telling us is perfectly possible, and we revert to WTO rules, then I agree, we are talking about a hard border. It's really up to both sides to work together to avoid that situation.
Yeah, I think the backstop is on its' way. Might be a tough sell through.

Chloé Palmas 25-06-2018 17:51
Re: Brexit discussion
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35951755)
Well, the idea of having NI become a member of the WTO in its own right and then choosing to mirror the EU customs regime was an idea put forward by Lamy, not me. The acceptable solution, no doubt, will be found from bringing together ideas from different solutions that are put forward. There are ideas out there - they just need to be brought together into something that is acceptable.
Oh sure, I am not denying that something can be worked out if there is some give (from either the UK or EU) but specifically, why would May give on WTO membership for NI (standalone) when she wouldn't if it was EU CU alignment? If one effects UK sovereignty then the other certainly does.

You can't have it both ways, if one isn't an issue neither is the other. If one is an issue / problem then they both are, for the same reason, in both scenarios.

Quote:
To my mind, the 'maximum facilitation' idea that has been put forward by the UK has considerable merit.
Fine, but that still involves some tariffs and barriers along with fees - if not then the UK must accept membership into the CU, which means that trade deals are done as a collective.

If not, then friction-less trade is a no go.


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