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-   -   Russia has invaded Ukraine (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33710768)

Chris 29-10-2022 16:29
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36138777)
I think you’ve answered your own question to an extent. If your assumptions hold true the war ends when it no longer meets US strategic objectives and they pull the funding for it. A negotiated settlement would quickly be found.
I don’t think you’re correct here. Leaving aside your obsession with casting everything as an extension of US foreign policy (which this is not; not when obvious genocide is being perpetrated and there is an extremely high level of commitment to resist, across the Ukrainian population), the Russian invasion has emboldened most of its former satellites in Eastern Europe and the baltics to support Ukraine well beyond the level of most others on per capita terms.

Ukraine faces an existential struggle now and others see themselves in the front line if Ukraine falls. If support in the US becomes lukewarm then there are plenty of other highly motivated donors in Europe and a highly motivated population in Ukraine that realises a ceasefire that leaves Russia in possession of any of Ukraine is simply a pause while Russia regains the means to start again.

With the support only of Eastern European countries the pace will slow but the war will not grind to a negotiated halt. What possible reason could Ukraine have to agree to leave its citizens in occupied territory, after the horrors of Bucha and with similar now coming to light in Lyman and elsewhere?

jfman 29-10-2022 16:55
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36138789)
I don’t think you’re correct here. Leaving aside your obsession with casting everything as an extension of US foreign policy (which this is not; not when obvious genocide is being perpetrated and there is an extremely high level of commitment to resist, across the Ukrainian population), the Russian invasion has emboldened most of its former satellites in Eastern Europe and the baltics to support Ukraine well beyond the level of most others on per capita terms.

Ukraine faces an existential struggle now and others see themselves in the front line if Ukraine falls. If support in the US becomes lukewarm then there are plenty of other highly motivated donors in Europe and a highly motivated population in Ukraine that realises a ceasefire that leaves Russia in possession of any of Ukraine is simply a pause while Russia regains the means to start again.

With the support only of Eastern European countries the pace will slow but the war will not grind to a negotiated halt. What possible reason could Ukraine have to agree to leave its citizens in occupied territory, after the horrors of Bucha and with similar now coming to light in Lyman and elsewhere?
As I emphasised in my post to Pierre my post was based on his assumptions holding true.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
I don’t think Ukraine, on their own, can take back all the territory taken by Russia in this offensive, let alone Crimea.

So, I say again, if only repelling Russia from all of Ukraine is acceptable. I.e. no negotiation at all, total removal of Russia only.

And Ukraine are incapable of achieving that, what happens?

Just keep the destruction and death, ticking over.

Your suggestion of a “frozen conflict” is not a cessation of war. Unless you mean an agreement is reached, or at least acknowledged, which is what I have suggested. A negotiated peace.
Other assumptions are available.

richard-john56 29-10-2022 19:51
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
I would like it if they would stop using the term the West v Russia and use the World against Putin more often. jfman is wrong about the USA strategic objectives and they pull the funding for it they have stated as long as it takes many times. We must do much more on the properganda information war as well.

Now the Russians blame our Royal Navy for blowing the Nord Stream gas pipe supply up.

jfman 29-10-2022 20:06
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by richard-john56 (Post 36138810)
jfman is wrong
He who pays the piper calls the tune. Ukraine are only still in this war because it suits American interests, if it doesn’t suit American interests they’ll quickly be out of it.

I think it’s equally an act of propaganda to describe it as the world vs Putin. Unless of course you don’t think China or India count as the “world”.

Chris 29-10-2022 20:07
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by richard-john56 (Post 36138810)
I would like it if they would stop using the term the West v Russia and use the World against Putin more often. jfman is wrong about the USA strategic objectives and they pull the funding for it they have stated as long as it takes many times. We must do much more on the properganda information war as well.

Now the Russians blame our Royal Navy for blowing the Nord Stream gas pipe supply up.
The vast bulk of Russian propaganda is for domestic consumption and is designed to perpetuate Russia’s sense of victimhood (which is strong) and to ensure the Russian public continues to remain content to allow the elites to run the country. Russians often blame us for stuff, even more so than the USA, because we’re a real bogeyman to them. Probably goes back to the wars of the 19th century. Take it as a compliment.

As for the world v Putin, well unfortunately it really isn’t. Where Russia’s propaganda has found a receptive audience, there is far less willingness to openly condemn. Large parts of Africa are ambivalent if not outright supportive. In some cases, Russia looks a better bet to them that their former colonial masters. India is continuing to try to have its cake and eat it (it buys most of its arms from Russia), though it is seemingly more willing to quietly criticise Putin now than at the outset. China would have preferred Russia not to reawaken NATO’s sense of unity and purpose, or to behave in ways that have indirectly shone a light on its own designs on Taiwan, but nevertheless remans a firm ally to Russia. And Iran … well like it or not Iran is part of the world and Iran is selling Russia loitering munitions (aka kamikaze drones) by the bucketload.

Pierre 29-10-2022 21:04
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36138789)
the Russian invasion has emboldened most of its former satellites in Eastern Europe and the baltics to support Ukraine well beyond the level of most others on per capita terms.

Ukraine faces an existential struggle now and others see themselves in the front line if Ukraine falls. If support in the US becomes lukewarm then there are plenty of other highly motivated donors in Europe and a highly motivated population in Ukraine that realises a ceasefire that leaves Russia in possession of any of Ukraine is simply a pause while Russia regains the means to start again.

With the support only of Eastern European countries the pace will slow but the war will not grind to a negotiated halt. What possible reason could Ukraine have to agree to leave its citizens in occupied territory, after the horrors of Bucha and with similar now coming to light in Lyman and elsewhere?
Without US dollars, this is a very precarious situation. The EU are very much in the “let’s negotiate” camp. That is a fact. Germany hopes this goes away asap.

I read, I’ll. find the link, that all told, up to now Ukraine have had 80Billion, so far. From all benefactors, Which is not massive by any means, but we are only just over 6 months in. Multiply that twice a year, as long as this carries on. It’s a big number, getting bigger.

https://www.devex.com/news/funding-t...ukraine-102887

I will challenge you on one point:

Quote:
there are plenty of other highly motivated donors in Europe
Who exactly would that be? The EU, especially Germany, are well out of pocket. They’re paying Russia for gas they’re not getting. I haven’t seen anything at all from the EU or any other country about facing down Russia. Or financing Ukraine, indefinitely

Chris 29-10-2022 21:33
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36138814)
Who exactly would that be? The EU, especially Germany, are well out of pocket. They’re paying Russia for gas they’re not getting. I haven’t seen anything at all from the EU or any other country about facing down Russia. Or financing Ukraine, indefinitely
This sort of thing is still happening:

https://kyivindependent.com/news-fee...nks-to-ukraine

Quote:
Slovenia sends 28 M-55S tanks to Ukraine

Slovenia sent the tanks to Ukraine in exchange for equipment from Germany, an agreement concluded in September between Slovenia’s Prime Minister Robert Golob and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

In July, Slovenia had already sent 35 amphibious infantry fighting vehicle BVP M80A to Ukraine.
And bilateral aid by GDP:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-of-donor-gdp/

Note that the Baltics plus Poland occupy the top 4 places in the chart.

In geopolitical terms, I think it’s unwise also to underestimate the extent to which Western governments understand exactly how large a pile of excrement they will be storing up for themselves if the ultimate outcome of this conflict looks anything at all like a victory for Russia, which can be loosely taken to mean Russia extending its control of Ukrainian territory, with Putin still in control, but could as a minimum be merely the formal ceding of Crimea to Russia.

Itshim 29-10-2022 21:40
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36138811)
He who pays the piper calls the tune. Ukraine are only still in this war because it suits American interests, if it doesn’t suit American interests they’ll quickly be out of it.

I think it’s equally an act of propaganda to describe it as the world vs Putin. Unless of course you don’t think China or India count as the “world”.
From what I hear if the republicans take control in the mid term elections the Ukraine could be short of weapons , will Europe step up to fill the gap , somehow I doubt it

Pierre 29-10-2022 21:58
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36138816)
This sort of thing is still happening:
.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but all of that is included in the 80 billion in my previous link.

Which, although impressive, is not definitive.

Chris 29-10-2022 22:08
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36138821)
Correct me if I’m wrong, but all of that is included in the 80 billion in my previous link.

Which, although impressive, is not definitive.
It may well be, but you’re asking for evidence of motivation, and that is absolutely evidence of motivation. IIRC the arrangement was agreed last month and carried out this week.

I think the commitment and direction is evident.

jfman 29-10-2022 22:19
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36138821)
Correct me if I’m wrong, but all of that is included in the 80 billion in my previous link.

Which, although impressive, is not definitive.
How much of it is being underwritten with a nudge and a wink from Langley.

If America can’t commit to replacing this equipment in a timely fashion, the speed at which it’s being donated will naturally decline.

Pierre 29-10-2022 22:25
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36138822)
It may well be, but you’re asking for evidence of motivation, and that is absolutely evidence of motivation. IIRC the arrangement was agreed last month and carried out this week.

I think the commitment and direction is evident.
I would like to assert now on record, for avoidance of any doubt, I am not a Russian apologist. I know how these things go. I am just giving my view on this as an interested spectator.

I’m not asking for evidence of anything. I just don’t think that the EU & US will be willing to pump in a 160 Billion per annum to finance it, indefinitely.

---------- Post added at 22:25 ---------- Previous post was at 22:22 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36138823)
How much of it is being underwritten with a nudge and a wink from Langley.

If America can’t commit to replacing this equipment in a timely fashion, the speed at which it’s being donated will naturally decline.
Well at least 50% is US.

jfman 29-10-2022 22:31
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36138824)
I would like to assert now on record, for avoidance of any doubt, I am not a Russian apologist. I know how these things go. I am just giving my view on this as an interested spectator.

I’m not asking for evidence of anything. I just don’t think that the EU & US will be willing to pump in a 160 Billion per annum to finance it, indefinitely.
Unfortunately unless you believe that Ukraine can win, and must win, in a way that can be interpreted as nothing other than a win, plus regime change in Moscow that makes you a card-carrying apologist.

I don’t make the rules.

Hugh 29-10-2022 23:51
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36138826)
Unfortunately unless you believe that Ukraine can win, and must win, in a way that can be interpreted as nothing other than a win, plus regime change in Moscow that makes you a card-carrying apologist.

I don’t make the rules.
No, but you just made that up…

jfman 29-10-2022 23:59
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36138829)
No, but you just made that up…
Depends who you ask I suppose. Although I do have doubts over the existence of membership cards.

It's just quite bizarre that the discourse is such that Pierre feels the need to point it out for merely acknowledging victory could - merely could - be beyond Ukraine and somewhat dependant upon continuing support from the third parties, including the United States. Something that the good people of Afghanistan and Iraq might have a view over the usefulness of in the long run.

It's even more bizarre that here I am sticking up for Pierre.

I did laugh at an earlier post telling us that Russia portrays the West as the perpetual bogey man. It was just the other day I was listening to a Conservative MP (upon the coronation of Rishi Sunak as PM) on Sky News telling us we are paying more for energy due to "Putin's War" (as opposed to our nation outsourcing it's energy security) and how we are living under a nuclear threat!

Hugh 30-10-2022 00:23
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
It’s as valid a point as insinuating that anyone who thinks that supporting Ukraine in its battle not to be subsumed as one of the first steps in reinstating the Soviet/Russian hegemony must be a shill for the CIA.

But, as you say, depends who you ask…

jfman 30-10-2022 00:40
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36138832)
It’s as valid a point as insinuating that anyone who thinks that supporting Ukraine in its battle not to be subsumed as one of the first steps in reinstating the Soviet/Russian hegemony must be a shill for the CIA.

But, as you say, depends who you ask…
On the contrary Hugh. Some of them never saw that hegemony end.

Hugh 30-10-2022 00:56
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Who?

(Besides Putin)

Chris 30-10-2022 09:32
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36138824)
I would like to assert now on record, for avoidance of any doubt, I am not a Russian apologist. I know how these things go. I am just giving my view on this as an interested spectator.

I’m not asking for evidence of anything. I just don’t think that the EU & US will be willing to pump in a 160 Billion per annum to finance it, indefinitely.
Fair enough, and I never took you for one. There is however a widespread assumption that Russia is a great power, fed by decades of Russian propaganda and (it now turns out) incorrect assumptions on the part of Western experts. These are the ones who had no concept of Ukraine lasting more than a week or so, last February.

The idea of the mighty Russian bear is so ingrained in the Western psyche that at every stage of this conflict there has been a tendency to assume Ukraine has done well to get as far as it has, but it’s not going to get much further. I believe your line of thinking doesn’t arise from a desire to be a Putin cheerleader, but simply because your starting point is an internalised set of assumptions about what Russia is, a starting point that all of us have shared for many years and most still do.

It’s only by reading and following this conflict very closely since February that I have become so optimistic of a complete Ukrainian triumph. Some might think I’m obviously just being selective in my reading but I really do believe it’s possible to pull back the curtain on the Russian wizard and discover their narrative is a scam of epic proportions. They are riven with corruption, tactical ineptitude and all the disadvantages of a dictatorial government that is paranoid and highly centralised.

In Ukraine right now they have a barely functional army that is resisting total collapse only by sheer weight of numbers. The mobilised men are untrained, unequipped and in many cases unarmed. They are there to give the Ukrainians something more to shoot at, thereby slowing them down. They are buying primitive drones from Iran because they’ve used most of their own high tech missiles and can’t build more because they rely on imported Western electronics, which they can’t now get hold of. The reality Russia faces right now is that in conventional terms its homeland is effectively defenceless against a suitably motivated adversary. It just doesn’t have the manpower or the equipment to stop it. It is a weakly armed, poorly led terrorist state.

Russia does have a big pile of nuclear weapons and has attempted to leverage fear of those to dissuade Nato from supporting Ukraine, but in the last week has rowed back on those threats, almost certainly due to ever-more-assertive warnings from China and India. This is where the true long term strategic damage to Russia’s interests will be felt. Russia has been a senior ally to India and saw itself as an equal partner with China. India clearly no longer worries about giving Russia a stern talking to and what of China? Russia is going to find itself a (very) junior partner in that relationship.

Maggy 30-10-2022 09:43
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36138844)
Fair enough, and I never took you for one. There is however a widespread assumption that Russia is a great power, fed by decades of Russian propaganda and (it now turns out) incorrect assumptions on the part of Western experts. These are the ones who had no concept of Ukraine lasting more than a week or so, last February.

The idea of the mighty Russian bear is so ingrained in the Western psyche that at every stage of this conflict there has been a tendency to assume Ukraine has done well to get as far as it has, but it’s not going to get much further. I believe your line of thinking doesn’t arise from a desire to be a Putin cheerleader, but simply because your starting point is an internalised set of assumptions about what Russia is, a starting point that all of us have shared for many years and most still do.

It’s only by reading and following this conflict very closely since February that I have become so optimistic of a complete Ukrainian triumph. Some might think I’m obviously just being selective in my reading but I really do believe it’s possible to pull back the curtain on the Russian wizard and discover their narrative is a scam of epic proportions. They are riven with corruption, tactical ineptitude and all the disadvantages of a dictatorial government that is paranoid and highly centralised.

In Ukraine right now they have a barely functional army that is resisting total collapse only by sheer weight of numbers. The mobilised men are untrained, unequipped and in many cases unarmed. They are there to give the Ukrainians something more to shoot at, thereby slowing them down. They are buying primitive drones from Iran because they’ve used most of their own high tech missiles and can’t build more because they rely on imported Western electronics, which they can’t now get hold of. The reality Russia faces right now is that in conventional terms its homeland is effectively defenceless against a suitably motivated adversary. It just doesn’t have the manpower or the equipment to stop it. It is a weakly armed, poorly led terrorist state.

Russia does have a big pile of nuclear weapons and has attempted to leverage fear of those to dissuade Nato from supporting Ukraine, but in the last week has rowed back on those threats, almost certainly due to ever-more-assertive warnings from China and India. This is where the true long term strategic damage to Russia’s interests will be felt. Russia has been a senior ally to India and saw itself as an equal partner with China. India clearly no longer worries about giving Russia a stern talking to and what of China? Russia is going to find itself a (very) junior partner in that relationship.
:clap::clap::clap:

Hugh 30-10-2022 10:07
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
1 Attachment(s)
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...3&d=1667124416

jfman 30-10-2022 10:22
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36138844)
Fair enough, and I never took you for one. There is however a widespread assumption that Russia is a great power, fed by decades of Russian propaganda and (it now turns out) incorrect assumptions on the part of Western experts. These are the ones who had no concept of Ukraine lasting more than a week or so, last February.

The idea of the mighty Russian bear is so ingrained in the Western psyche that at every stage of this conflict there has been a tendency to assume Ukraine has done well to get as far as it has, but it’s not going to get much further. I believe your line of thinking doesn’t arise from a desire to be a Putin cheerleader, but simply because your starting point is an internalised set of assumptions about what Russia is, a starting point that all of us have shared for many years and most still do.

It’s only by reading and following this conflict very closely since February that I have become so optimistic of a complete Ukrainian triumph. Some might think I’m obviously just being selective in my reading but I really do believe it’s possible to pull back the curtain on the Russian wizard and discover their narrative is a scam of epic proportions. They are riven with corruption, tactical ineptitude and all the disadvantages of a dictatorial government that is paranoid and highly centralised.

In Ukraine right now they have a barely functional army that is resisting total collapse only by sheer weight of numbers. The mobilised men are untrained, unequipped and in many cases unarmed. They are there to give the Ukrainians something more to shoot at, thereby slowing them down. They are buying primitive drones from Iran because they’ve used most of their own high tech missiles and can’t build more because they rely on imported Western electronics, which they can’t now get hold of. The reality Russia faces right now is that in conventional terms its homeland is effectively defenceless against a suitably motivated adversary. It just doesn’t have the manpower or the equipment to stop it. It is a weakly armed, poorly led terrorist state.

Russia does have a big pile of nuclear weapons and has attempted to leverage fear of those to dissuade Nato from supporting Ukraine, but in the last week has rowed back on those threats, almost certainly due to ever-more-assertive warnings from China and India. This is where the true long term strategic damage to Russia’s interests will be felt. Russia has been a senior ally to India and saw itself as an equal partner with China. India clearly no longer worries about giving Russia a stern talking to and what of China? Russia is going to find itself a (very) junior partner in that relationship.
Shroedinger’s Russia.

Simultaneously on its knees but ready to reap genocide throughout all of the Baltic states if even an inch of Ukrainian territory is conceded.

Hugh 30-10-2022 10:56
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Pretty sure Crimea is more than inch* of Ukrainian territory…

(*actually 277,000 square km).

Your hyperbole does your argument very little favour - Putin has said he wants Russia to reclaim all its old territories, Russia is committing war crimes in Ukraine as we speak, and the ex-Sov counties would not like that to happen to them, please…

jfman 30-10-2022 11:12
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36138850)
Pretty sure Crimea is more than inch* of Ukrainian territory…

(*actually 277,000 square km).

Your hyperbole does your argument very little favour - Putin has said he wants Russia to reclaim all its old territories, Russia is committing war crimes in Ukraine as we speak, and the ex-Sov counties would not like that to happen to them, please…
I’m only rehashing the emotive terminology of others.

What Putin says and what Putin has the ability to do are two (or potentially three?) wildly different things depending on what is being proposed.

Russia is indeed committing war crimes that’s why an endless war is entirely undesirable - which was Pierre’s original point.

Chris 30-10-2022 12:47
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36138847)
Shroedinger’s Russia.

Simultaneously on its knees but ready to reap genocide throughout all of the Baltic states if even an inch of Ukrainian territory is conceded.
Not sure who’s suggesting Russia actually has any offensive capability against NATO at the moment. They clearly don’t, and have actually been moving units away from their western frontier to shore up operations inside Ukraine.

NATO military manoeuvres in the Baltics are about speaking the language Putin understands. His invasion was predicated on the belief that Nato is weak, indecisive and internally divided. It’s good politics to ensure he understands that even low-level mischief making would be unwise.

jfman 06-11-2022 18:08
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...a-talks-report

Let’s see who is in charge.

Hugh 06-11-2022 18:34
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Here’s a readable link to the full Washington Post article the Grauniad article is based on.

https://wapo.st/3DDpmfT

Pierre 06-11-2022 22:23
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139465)
Russian apologist, only total victory is acceptable.

Paul 07-11-2022 02:40
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36139474)
Russian apologist, only total victory is acceptable.
Acceptable to who ?

Pierre 07-11-2022 09:27
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36139477)
Acceptable to who ?
Well I was just being tongue in cheek with JFman,

But since you ask, from the article

Quote:
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said Ukraine is only prepared to enter negotiations with Russia if its troops leave all parts of Ukraine, including Crimea and the eastern areas of the Donbas, de facto controlled by Russia since 2014, and if those Russians who have committed crimes in Ukraine face trial.

Zelenskiy also made clear that he would not hold negotiations with the current Russian leadership. Last month, he signed a decree specifying that Ukraine would only negotiate with a Russian president who has succeeded Vladimir Putin.

tweetiepooh 07-11-2022 12:02
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Me thinks that the change in Russian tactics to hit infrastructure has likely hardened attitudes in Ukraine. Hopefully they will maintain their generally good attitude to captured Russians.

Mick 07-11-2022 12:40
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
BREAKING: Ukraine confirms that it has received its first NASAMS systems. NASAMS are short to medium range ground-based air defence systems.

Ukraine has requested additional air defence support as Russia pummels civilian infrastructure and Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov thanked Spain, the US and Norway for their help. - Samuel Ramani, Foreign Policy.

Hugh 07-11-2022 17:49
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Satellites detect more than 1,500 new graves near Russia-occupied Mariupol

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d...fba0c81288b570

Quote:
More than 1,500 graves have been dug in recent months at a mass burial site near the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol, satellite imagery has shown.

Images shot by Maxar, a space technology company, show that three mass burial sites located at Staryi Krym, Manhush and Vynohradne, have been steadily growing since the spring, when Russian troops gained control of the port city following three months of siege warfare.

Analysis of the images of Staryi Krym by the Centre for Information Resilience (CIR), a British human rights organisation, and the BBC concluded that 1,500 new graves had been dug there since it last analysed images at the site in June.

CIR now estimates that more than 4,600 graves have been dug in the area since the beginning of the war.

RichardCoulter 07-11-2022 18:31
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36139523)
Satellites detect more than 1,500 new graves near Russia-occupied Mariupol

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d...fba0c81288b570
Sickening.

pip08456 07-11-2022 21:28
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Antono Company says it has initiated works to complete the second Antonov An-225 Mriya aircraft!

Pierre 07-11-2022 22:02
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
This, of course, is not representative of all the US. That said most of the US don’t know what Ukraine is or where it is. But they’re paying for it.

https://unherd.com/thepost/david-sac...o-nuclear-war/

Worth a listen, especially as it highlights the narrative that anyone suggesting peace via negotiation ( is there usually any other way?) is labelled a Putin apologist, when in the past they would just be a pacifist.

Chris 07-11-2022 22:32
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Meanwhile, the Russians have been out and about today, admitting they’re interfering with the US election. It seems to me that doing all they can to come to the aid of those labelled ‘Putin apologist’ would be worth their effort …

Damien 07-11-2022 22:36
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36139532)
Worth a listen, especially as it highlights the narrative that anyone suggesting peace via negotiation ( is there usually any other way?) is labelled a Putin apologist, when in the past they would just be a pacifist.
It's when people make disingenuous calls for negotiations whilst trying to give Russia a stronger hand that are apologists. People like Corbyn or the Republicans want to stop arming Ukraine and force them to the table.

Negotiations on Ukraine's terms are fine.

Alternatively, Russia leaves Ukraine. That's all they want, to not be invaded. This isn't some disputed land that has acted as a buffer between the states, it isn't a dispute over unclaimed land either. It's a sovereign nation being invaded by an imperialist state who are now losing and are getting its friends in the West to try and force Ukraine to stop.

jfman 07-11-2022 23:01
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36139534)
Meanwhile, the Russians have been out and about today, admitting they’re interfering with the US election. It seems to me that doing all they can to come to the aid of those labelled ‘Putin apologist’ would be worth their effort …
Somewhat ironic considering it’s usually America subverting democracies they disagree with.

---------- Post added at 22:53 ---------- Previous post was at 22:48 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36139535)
It's when people make disingenuous calls for negotiations whilst trying to give Russia a stronger hand that are apologists. People like Corbyn or the Republicans want to stop arming Ukraine and force them to the table.

Negotiations on Ukraine's terms are fine.
Are they Ukraine”s terms or America’s terms?

Quote:
Alternatively, Russia leaves Ukraine. That's all they want, to not be invaded. This isn't some disputed land that has acted as a buffer between the states, it isn't a dispute over unclaimed land either. It's a sovereign nation being invaded by an imperialist state who are now losing and are getting its friends in the West to try and force Ukraine to stop.
Russia and ethnic Russians in Ukraine could legitimately argue they just want Ukraine/the US to hold up their end of the bargain from Minsk II - a topic raised in the podcast Pierre links to that is seldom (indeed, never) acknowledged in the “acceptable” western narrative.

---------- Post added at 23:01 ---------- Previous post was at 22:53 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36139532)
This, of course, is not representative of all the US. That said most of the US don’t know what Ukraine is or where it is. But they’re paying for it.

https://unherd.com/thepost/david-sac...o-nuclear-war/

Worth a listen, especially as it highlights the narrative that anyone suggesting peace via negotiation ( is there usually any other way?) is labelled a Putin apologist, when in the past they would just be a pacifist.
I gave it a listen - more very good points raised than weak ones and correctly identifies many of the narratives deemed toxic in the west. It’s no longer acceptable to oppose war for the sake of war in this one.

One point I disagree with him on though is where he says America should look out for its own interests. The error here is assuming they aren’t - the military industrial complex in the US has them in a perpetual state of war operating to the same formula. Lucrative rebuilding contracts and rapid privatisation to extract as much wealth as possible from the country in question while propping up a puppet regime.

The internal conflict for the US is between the military industrial complex - which says the quiet bit out loud in the Washington Post article Hugh linked to yesterday in that regardless of domestic politics they have the votes on both sides of the aisle - and the wider American economy that loses out from high inflation and billions of overseas customers giving all their disposable income to energy companies so they don’t freeze to death. It’s no surprise it’s the tech industry ringing the alarm bells first.

If (or when) wider US economic interests win out Zelensky (or his successor) will be round the table quicker than you can say “Minsk Three”.

Hugh 08-11-2022 09:20
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Reasonable explanation of why Minsk II’s internal contradictions make it unlikely to resolve anything….

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/02...ukraine-crisis

Quote:
Why does Minsk-2 cause such debate?

Minsk-2 purports to create a framework to resolve the war, but it is a tangle of contradictory provisions, and a convoluted and contested sequence of actions. Textual incoherence reflects incompatible interpretations of what is to be achieved and how. And at its heart is a simple problem – Ukraine sees Minsk-2 as a means to restore its sovereignty, but Russia views it as a tool with which to cripple Ukraine’s sovereignty…

… The question of ‘special status’ for the DNR/LNR is even more controversial because, contrary to what is sometimes suggested, Russia’s demands go way beyond any reasonable definition of autonomy. Moscow wants an extreme version of autonomy and insists this is written into Ukraine’s constitution, meaning that following formal reintegration into Ukraine these mini-states would be essentially independent of Kyiv.

This would embed Russian influence into Ukraine’s political system, compromising Ukraine’s sovereignty from within. Such an agenda is spelled out in leaked emails from the mastermind of Donbas separatism Vladislav Surkov who has also said Ukrainian law would not apply in a post-settlement Donbas.

jfman 08-11-2022 10:16
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
It’s always good to read a western interpretation of events. I do like the set up though - either Ukraine is sovereign or it is not.

It essentially forces the reader to pick a side under emotive terms invoking the Russian bogey man - you either buy into national sovereignty; or the right of people to self-determination but you cannot have both.

Makes you wonder why Ukraine signed up in bad faith to a negotiated settlement it had no intention of adhering to.

Hugh 08-11-2022 10:43
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Makes you wonder why Russia signed up to it if they intended to invade Ukraine a couple of years after they signed up to it…

Pretty sure it’s not "emotive" to think that Russia shouldn’t invade another country, then commit war crimes…

"Self determination" - invading a Region with Russian troops, mercenaries, and apparatchiks doesn’t come under any definition* of "self determination" I can find…

*my bad - it comes under the "Russian excuse for invading" definition

jfman 08-11-2022 12:23
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36139561)
Makes you wonder why Russia signed up to it if they intended to invade Ukraine a couple of years after they signed up to it…

Pretty sure it’s not "emotive" to think that Russia shouldn’t invade another country, then commit war crimes…

"Self determination" - invading a Region with Russian troops, mercenaries, and apparatchiks doesn’t come under any definition* of "self determination" I can find…

*my bad - it comes under the "Russian excuse for invading" definition
As if to prove my point thanks for demonstrating your inability to view the dispute through anything other than a western lens. The straw man of a Russian invasion - something I offered no opinion on at all - used to excuse Ukraine from any responsibility to its own international obligations. Thus further entrenching both sides.

Jaymoss 08-11-2022 12:30
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36139561)
Makes you wonder why Russia signed up to it if they intended to invade Ukraine a couple of years after they signed up to it…

Pretty sure it’s not "emotive" to think that Russia shouldn’t invade another country, then commit war crimes…

"Self determination" - invading a Region with Russian troops, mercenaries, and apparatchiks doesn’t come under any definition* of "self determination" I can find…

*my bad - it comes under the "Russian excuse for invading" definition
Did you feel the same when the UK and USA invaded Iraq and Afghanistan?

In Iraq weapons of mass destruction was our excuse

Chris 08-11-2022 12:47
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139564)
As if to prove my point thanks for demonstrating your inability to view the dispute through anything other than a western lens. The straw man of a Russian invasion - something I offered no opinion on at all - used to excuse Ukraine from any responsibility to its own international obligations. Thus further entrenching both sides.
Who’s to say he can’t view the dispute through any other lens? Here’s a radical possibility for you: perhaps he’s studied the conflict, with due regard to points of view and ways of construing it, and presents here conclusions that are well founded but perhaps differ from yours.

I’d dearly love to know where you got your lens, incidentally, if only to ensure I never buy one by mistake. Your readiness to construe the violent separatist insurgencies in the Donbas as legitimate issues of self determination Ukraine should just live with is troubling, to say the least. Personally I think it’s awfully naive, but the I know you’ll simply dismiss that as a product of my Western lens.

LOL also at your brazen attempt to comment on only those aspects of the unfolding crisis that suit your obsessions. Go on, how about you offer an opinion on the Russian invasion. I’d be genuinely interested to hear it.

Hugh 08-11-2022 12:56
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36139565)
Did you feel the same when the UK and USA invaded Iraq and Afghanistan?

In Iraq weapons of mass destruction was our excuse
Yes, actually, I did…

But just counter your whataboutism, can you highlight where the USA/U.K. forces repeatedly massacred civilians and put them into mass graves in Iraq & Afghanistan?

jfman 08-11-2022 13:04
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36139569)
Who’s to say he can’t view the dispute through any other lens? Here’s a radical possibility for you: perhaps he’s studied the conflict, with due regard to points of view and ways of construing it, and presents here conclusions that are well founded but perhaps differ from yours.
Indeed nobody is obliged to view anything other than through the lens they choose, however they can be unsurprised if ultimately the reality - especially in an issue such as war - is much more complex.

Quote:
I’d dearly love to know where you got your lens, incidentally, if only to ensure I never buy one by mistake. Your readiness to construe the violent separatist insurgencies in the Donbas as legitimate issues of self determination Ukraine should just live with is troubling, to say the least. Personally I think it’s awfully naive, but the I know you’ll simply dismiss that as a product of my Western lens.
Who said anything about violent insurgencies? Once again it’s a straw man. The people in these areas have a right to the principle peaceful self determination - in accordance with the Minsk protocol - or they do not.

Quote:
LOL also at your brazen attempt to comment on only those aspects of the unfolding crisis that suit your obsessions. Go on, how about you offer an opinion on the Russian invasion. I’d be genuinely interested to hear it.
I don’t see much to laugh about to be honest. I’m entertained though that this is my obsession, considering the extremely lengthy post you made the other day about how you’ve been reading up on this since February and are convinced Russia is on the brink of collapse. You seem far more obsessed and entrenched in your own echo chamber than I am.

---------- Post added at 13:04 ---------- Previous post was at 13:03 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36139571)
Yes, actually, I did…

But just counter your whataboutism, can you highlight where the USA/U.K. forces repeatedly massacred civilians and put them into mass graves in Iraq & Afghanistan?
Are the lives of victims of “collateral damage” worth less because they are buried individually?

Hugh 08-11-2022 13:10
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
There’s a major moral and legal difference between "collateral damage" and "war crimes", but you obviously see it through a different lens…

Quote:
The people in these areas have a right to the principle peaceful self determination
Will the Russian invaders send soldiers around to ensure appropriate peaceful self-determination, like they did recently?

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/sham-referendums-ukraine/

jfman 08-11-2022 13:14
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36139575)
There’s a major moral and legal difference between "collateral damage" and "war crimes", but you obviously see it through a different lens…
I’m not convinced the distinction is that important to the dead to be honest.

Hugh 08-11-2022 13:16
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139576)
I’m not convinced the distinction is that important to the dead to be honest.
It’s important to the War Crimes trials, though, and the families of the war crime victims…

jfman 08-11-2022 13:20
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36139575)
Will the Russian invaders send soldiers around to ensure appropriate peaceful self-determination, like they did recently?

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/sham-referendums-ukraine/
Red herring alert. Nobody is claiming the Russian organised referendums are anything other than a sham which is why I referred to the principle of self-determination.

---------- Post added at 13:20 ---------- Previous post was at 13:19 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36139577)
It’s important to the War Crimes trials,
Unless of course it’s an American soldier committing the rape or murder.

Chris 08-11-2022 13:28
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139572)
Who said anything about violent insurgencies? Once again it’s a straw man. The people in these areas have a right to the principle peaceful self determination - in accordance with the Minsk protocol - or they do not.
As if to illustrate my point, you appeal to the Minsk Protocol, which Ukraine signed with a gun to its head as a direct result of violent insurrection fomented in the Donbas by the Russian state. The extent to which there ever was any great desire for self determination in Luhansk and Donetsk cannot now ever really be known, given the years of Russian propaganda, violent repression and genocide likely to have been perpetrated there (c.f. Bucha, Lyman etc - Russian state sponsored atrocities our faulty Western lenses were never supposed to see). All we really have to go on is the convincing ‘yes’ vote those areas returned in the referendum held prior to the establishment of the Ukrainian state.

Quote:
I don’t see much to laugh about to be honest. I’m entertained though that this is my obsession, considering the extremely lengthy post you made the other day about how you’ve been reading up on this since February and are convinced Russia is on the brink of collapse. You seem far more obsessed and entrenched in your own echo chamber than I am.
My post is there for all users to see. I’m pretty sure the balanced view of what it says differs significantly from your summary here so I don’t feel any pressing need to re-state any of it.

As to your own obsessions, well you’ve been using this conflict as a handy means to signal your hatred of American foreign policy since day one. You castigate other posters for their lenses while making no obvious attempt to see any of this from a Ukrainian point of view. Just 2 days ago you dropped a link to a Guardian article in the thread with a one-line comment furthering your obsession with the idea that Americans are lurking in the background pulling strings and using Ukraine for their own ends.

Just for once it would be genuinely heartening to hear you set your opinions in the context of Ukrainian civilians suffering kidnap, torture, rape and forced deportation in the occupied areas. Or, if that’s a bit too real for you, how about simply the security concerns of Eastern European states who fear that if a line isn’t drawn now, they’ll be next on Putin’s list.

jfman 08-11-2022 13:43
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36139580)
As if to illustrate my point, you appeal to the Minsk Protocol, which Ukraine signed with a gun to its head as a direct result of violent insurrection fomented in the Donbas by the Russian state. The extent to which there ever was any great desire for self determination in Luhansk and Donetsk cannot now ever really be known, given the years of Russian propaganda, violent repression and genocide likely to have been perpetrated there (c.f. Bucha, Lyman etc - Russian state sponsored atrocities our faulty Western lenses were never supposed to see). All we really have to go on is the convincing ‘yes’ vote those areas returned in the referendum held prior to the establishment of the Ukrainian state.
Which begs the question why Ukraine signed at all knowing it would be saving up a conflict for later if they didn’t adhere to their side.

Quote:
My post is there for all users to see. I’m pretty sure the balanced view of what it says differs significantly from your summary here so I don’t feel any pressing need to re-state any of it.

As to your own obsessions, well you’ve been using this conflict as a handy means to signal your hatred of American foreign policy since day one. You castigate other posters for their lenses while making no obvious attempt to see any of this from a Ukrainian point of view. Just 2 days ago you dropped a link to a Guardian article in the thread with a one-line comment furthering your obsession with the idea that Americans are lurking in the background pulling strings and using Ukraine for their own ends.
I think that’s a fanciful interpretation of reality, Chris. Anyone can read that article for themselves and consider whether America is pulling strings or not. Sure, I get that the plucky underdog is a good narrative for the propaganda machine but the reality remains Ukraine wouldn’t be in this conflict without American backing, just as it’ll be out of it without it.

Quote:
Just for once it would be genuinely heartening to hear you set your opinions in the context of Ukrainian civilians suffering kidnap, torture, rape and forced deportation in the occupied areas. Or, if that’s a bit too real for you, how about simply the security concerns of Eastern European states who fear that if a line isn’t drawn now, they’ll be next on Putin’s list.
I’ve been clear about the horrors of war - hence my interest in (and discussion of) a meaningful (and quick) solution rather than perpetual conflict, or the western keyboard warriors wet dream of regime change in Moscow. There won’t be any less rape or murder if this drags on for a decade.

I don’t think the rest of Eastern Europe have much to fear given how little Russia have achieved in almost a year. Indeed you yourself opined the other day that Russia couldn’t even protect itself if required.

Jaymoss 08-11-2022 13:50
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36139571)
Yes, actually, I did…

But just counter your whataboutism, can you highlight where the USA/U.K. forces repeatedly massacred civilians and put them into mass graves in Iraq & Afghanistan?
We won the war. Do you think we would be told? once again you seem to forget what propaganda is. Do you also think there was no torture on POWs? or at Guantanamo

I am not a Russian apologist I am a realist and the west is not innocent by a long long shot it is just we hold the moral high ground due to the fact we are the victors so far

---------- Post added at 13:50 ---------- Previous post was at 13:46 ----------

https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/...ivilians/iraqi

up to 207K Civilian deaths caused by both sides. It is very nieve to think a good portion of those were collateral damage from Allied attacks. One would assume there would have been mass graves when large numbers were killed in attacks, I do not know

TheDaddy 08-11-2022 14:58
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36139565)
Did you feel the same when the UK and USA invaded Iraq and Afghanistan?

In Iraq weapons of mass destruction was our excuse
Yes, I even went on a march to show my disdain, did I see you there?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36139571)
Yes, actually, I did…

But just counter your whataboutism, can you highlight where the USA/U.K. forces repeatedly massacred civilians and put them into mass graves in Iraq & Afghanistan?
Well there's the depleted uranium munitions that are still causing issues for the afghan population

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36139575)
There’s a major moral and legal difference between "collateral damage" and "war crimes", but you obviously see it through a different lens…



Will the Russian invaders send soldiers around to ensure appropriate peaceful self-determination, like they did recently?

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/sham-referendums-ukraine/
Don't suppose you remember this but years ago we were discussing South Ossetia and I was adamant the people that lived there should have the right to choose, even going as far as saying I'd be happy for Cornwall to go if that's what they wanted, don't mind admitting now that I was ignorant of what was going on, the gerrymandering of the population by shipping in settlers and the like

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36139584)
We won the war. Do you think we would be told? once again you seem to forget what propaganda is. Do you also think there was no torture on POWs? or at Guantanamo

I am not a Russian apologist I am a realist and the west is not innocent by a long long shot it is just we hold the moral high ground due to the fact we are the victors so far

---------- Post added at 13:50 ---------- Previous post was at 13:46 ----------

https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/...ivilians/iraqi

up to 207K Civilian deaths caused by both sides. It is very nieve to think a good portion of those were collateral damage from Allied attacks. One would assume there would have been mass graves when large numbers were killed in attacks, I do not know
Difference is they aren't put in those graves with a bullet behind the ear, pithy comments like it doesn't matter to the dead only carry weight if you don't give a toss about international law

jfman 08-11-2022 15:06
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
International law is only worth giving a toss about if it’s not littered with double standards as dictated by the victors in any given conflict.

Jaymoss 08-11-2022 15:51
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36139588)


Difference is they aren't put in those graves with a bullet behind the ear, pithy comments like it doesn't matter to the dead only carry weight if you don't give a toss about international law
The thing about International Law is other nations have to agree to abide by them. You can not oppose the Laws on those who choose to reject them. Russia do not give a toss obviously and I am sure China do what suits them as does North Korea

I suspect some allies in the war on terrorism in both Iraq, Afghanistan and Guantanamo Bay prison and the various black sites the intelligence agencies have around the world break international law on a regular basis

TheDaddy 09-11-2022 14:26
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139590)
International law is only worth giving a toss about if it’s not littered with double standards as dictated by the victors in any given conflict.
I'll tell my friend that, his dad was murdered by Charles Taylor's regime, I'll tell him the justice got isn't worth a toss, it might not be perfect but it's better than nothing isn't it?

jfman 09-11-2022 15:26
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36139643)
I'll tell my friend that, his dad was murdered by Charles Taylor's regime, I'll tell him the justice got isn't worth a toss, it might not be perfect but it's better than nothing isn't it?
I’m not sure if that’s the worlds smallest violin I hear being played in the distance by a straw man.

TheDaddy 09-11-2022 15:29
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139646)
I’m not sure if that’s the worlds smallest violin I hear being played in the distance by a straw man.
Everything is a straw man isn't it, change the record it's dull

Paul 09-11-2022 15:32
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
I'm surprised no one has complained a strawman is sexist, and it should be a strawperson. :erm:

jfman 09-11-2022 15:33
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36139647)
Everything is a straw man isn't it, change the record it's dull
If your point had been relevant to mine perhaps I’d have refrained from the reference.

Selective international law bringing some people to justice (but not others) can be disparaged without it being a slur on every instance it happened to be right.

---------- Post added at 15:33 ---------- Previous post was at 15:32 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36139650)
I'm surprised no one has complained a strawman is sexist, and it should be a strawperson. :erm:
Mine identify as men ;)

ianch99 09-11-2022 15:56
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139564)
As if to prove my point thanks for demonstrating your inability to view the dispute through anything other than a western lens. The straw man of a Russian invasion - something I offered no opinion on at all - used to excuse Ukraine from any responsibility to its own international obligations. Thus further entrenching both sides.
Isn't that the exact problem? If you offer no opinion about the Russian invasion, then any points you make about the conflict are moot. You either support the invasion or you don't, it really is that black & white. The Western military corporate machine will aim to profit from any conflict where they can and is orthogonal to the legitimacy of Ukraine to defend its internationally sanctioned borders.

The real problem here is not the West driving the conflict through arms & intelligence support, it is the apathy of the West to intervene when Crimea was occupied. A sort of Sudetenland analog.

Chris 09-11-2022 16:00
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36139650)
I'm surprised no one has complained a strawman is sexist, and it should be a strawperson. :erm:
It’s ok, the alternative name for a strawman is an “Aunt Sally”. So you can take your pick and everyone’s happy.

Unless your substitute argument is gender fluid of course.

TheDaddy 09-11-2022 17:26
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139651)
If your point had been relevant to mine perhaps I’d have refrained from the reference.

Selective international law bringing some people to justice (but not others) can be disparaged without it being a slur on every instance it happened to be right.
:rofl: my point was more relevant to your original post than your latest effort, there was no mention of it being right in some instances for some people in that one, just the disparaging slur of International law is only worth giving a toss about if it’s not littered with double standards etc.

Hugh 09-11-2022 17:45
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139578)
Red herring alert. Nobody is claiming the Russian organised referendums are anything other than a sham which is why I referred to the principle of self-determination.

---------- Post added at 13:20 ---------- Previous post was at 13:19 ----------



Unless of course it’s an American soldier committing the rape or murder.
Looking forward to your explanation of how they will carry out this "self-determination" when they have been invaded, been deported to Russia, had Russians move into the occupied areas, and ballots are held under armed intimidation?

Meanwhile, here’s the Ukrainian approach to self-determination…

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63573387

Quote:
Russia's military has been ordered to pull out of the Ukrainian city of Kherson, the only regional capital it captured after invading in February.

Russia's commander in Ukraine, Gen Sergei Surovikin, said it was no longer possible to keep supplying the city.

The withdrawal means Russian forces will pull out entirely from the western bank of the River Dnipro.

It is a significant blow as Russia faces a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

jfman 09-11-2022 18:17
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36139666)
Looking forward to your explanation of how they will carry out this "self-determination" when they have been invaded, been deported to Russia, had Russians move into the occupied areas, and ballots are held under armed intimidation?

Meanwhile, here’s the Ukrainian approach to self-determination…

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63573387
It’s possible to agree with the principle while recognising it’s not practical in the present climate, enshrining it in any proposed peace agreement.

Unless of course you disagree with the principle of self determination. In which case it’d be easier to just say that. My international law has never been the best, so I don’t know how that position reconciles.

Pierre 09-11-2022 22:16
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Still, there seems to be no answer to:

1. Only total victory is acceptable to Ukraine
2. Failure to achieve, some kind of, victory for Russia is essential for Putin.

Square that circle. Post answers below!

Chris 09-11-2022 23:20
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36139679)
Still, there seems to be no answer to:

1. Only total victory is acceptable to Ukraine
2. Failure to achieve, some kind of, victory for Russia is essential for Putin.

Square that circle. Post answers below!
Not going to get into a long post this late, but, for starters:

1. “Total victory” implies a neutral starting point, like kick off in a football match. In such circumstances a score draw might be considered an honourable conclusion given the disparity between the opponents. However in this instance there is no neutral starting point. Ukraine has internationally agreed borders that have been compromised since 2014. “Total victory” is actually just restoration of what is legally recognised. It is not unreasonable, and they should not be pressured into compromise because there is plenty of evidence that Russia would eventually use whatever it continued to hold in Ukraine as the start line for future aggression.

2. Putin’s threats in the event of his red lines being crossed have proven hollow on more than one occasion. We are months on from the point where it was deemed essential to give him an “off ramp”; clearly he doesn’t want one and is no more willing to negotiate a settlement with Zelensky than Zelensky is willing to negotiate with Putin. It has ceased to matter what is essential to Putin. He has crashed the Russian economy, eviscerated its army and most likely set in train his own demise by breaking the unwritten covenant with the Russian people (let us run the country and we’ll leave you alone). He’s hiding from the G20 because he can’t control the narrative that would emerge there and doesn’t like what that narrative might be. The Russian army in Ukraine is a twitching corpse, albeit one still wearing an undetonated suicide vest. They are going to completely lose this war.

In short - there is no circle here to be squared.

Hugh 10-11-2022 09:28
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139669)
It’s possible to agree with the principle while recognising it’s not practical in the present climate, enshrining it in any proposed peace agreement.

Unless of course you disagree with the principle of self determination. In which case it’d be easier to just say that. My international law has never been the best, so I don’t know how that position reconciles.
For clarity, no I don’t, so I don’t need to say that.

Unless, of course, you disagree with the principle that Russia should not have invaded Ukraine, in which case it’d be easier to just say that…

Pierre 10-11-2022 12:12
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36139682)
Not going to get into a long post this late, but, for starters:

1. “Total victory” implies a neutral starting point, like kick off in a football match. In such circumstances a score draw might be considered an honourable conclusion given the disparity between the opponents. However in this instance there is no neutral starting point. Ukraine has internationally agreed borders that have been compromised since 2014. “Total victory” is actually just restoration of what is legally recognised. It is not unreasonable, and they should not be pressured into compromise because there is plenty of evidence that Russia would eventually use whatever it continued to hold in Ukraine as the start line for future aggression.

2. Putin’s threats in the event of his red lines being crossed have proven hollow on more than one occasion. We are months on from the point where it was deemed essential to give him an “off ramp”; clearly he doesn’t want one and is no more willing to negotiate a settlement with Zelensky than Zelensky is willing to negotiate with Putin. It has ceased to matter what is essential to Putin. He has crashed the Russian economy, eviscerated its army and most likely set in train his own demise by breaking the unwritten covenant with the Russian people (let us run the country and we’ll leave you alone). He’s hiding from the G20 because he can’t control the narrative that would emerge there and doesn’t like what that narrative might be. The Russian army in Ukraine is a twitching corpse, albeit one still wearing an undetonated suicide vest. They are going to completely lose this war.

In short - there is no circle here to be squared.
Then I supposed the element missing from my equation is time. If you are correct, it will just be a matter of time. Russia will collapse, vacate all of Ukraine (incl Crimea), without using any WMDs.

I hope you're right. Just depends on how long that scenario takes to come to fruition.

Chris 10-11-2022 12:30
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36139712)
Then I supposed the element missing from my equation is time. If you are correct, it will just be a matter of time. Russia will collapse, vacate all of Ukraine (incl Crimea), without using any WMDs.

I hope you're right. Just depends on how long that scenario takes to come to fruition.
I don’t think Russia is going to use any WMD in Ukraine. To the extent it might even have been considering it, it has been required to back off by a combination of very specific threats of reprisal by the US and allies, and by extreme diplomatic displeasure from China.

Putin’s ‘off ramp’ now is a domestic one. His military commanders are the ones not just organising but also announcing the withdrawal from Kherson. That’s a pattern that will be repeated as often as necessary so that whenever this comes to its final end it will be the military and not Putin that gets the blame. How successful a strategy that is within Russia remains to be seen.

ianch99 10-11-2022 12:57
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
People are forgetting the 1994 Budapest Memorandum where:

Quote:
Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia and that they agreed to the following:

1. Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
2. Refrain from the threat or the use of force against the signatory.
3. Refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by the signatory of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.
4. Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to the signatory if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
5. Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against the signatory.
6. Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments
This is the lens through which a lot of Ukrainians view their current situation and how the help of the West is not just benevolence. There is an obligation on our part to help ..

TheDaddy 10-11-2022 13:18
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36139715)
People are forgetting the 1994 Budapest Memorandum where:



This is the lens through which a lot of Ukrainians view their current situation and how the help of the West is not just benevolence. There is an obligation on our part to help ..
This is the same memorandum that obligated us to help in 2014, how'd that turn out for the Ukranians...

Pierre 10-11-2022 14:25
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36139715)
People are forgetting the 1994 Budapest Memorandum where:



This is the lens through which a lot of Ukrainians view their current situation and how the help of the West is not just benevolence. There is an obligation on our part to help ..
no one forgot it, it has been quoted in this thread many times.

Jaymoss 10-11-2022 14:29
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36139717)
no one forgot it, it has been quoted in this thread many times.
I had not seen it before...

jfman 10-11-2022 14:45
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36139716)
This is the same memorandum that obligated us to help in 2014, how'd that turn out for the Ukranians...
It’s almost as if international agreements are simply maintained for as long as expedient and dismissed once different priorities arise.

TheDaddy 10-11-2022 15:12
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139720)
It’s almost as if international agreements are simply maintained for as long as expedient and dismissed once different priorities arise.
Indeed, imagine how the tables would have turned if the republicans had done better in the mid terms, putin had bought and paid for them after all...

Chris 10-11-2022 17:40
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36139716)
This is the same memorandum that obligated us to help in 2014, how'd that turn out for the Ukranians...
For our part, Operation Orbital (2015-2022) had trained 22,000 Ukrainian soldiers by the time the invasion began in February. It was a direct response to Russia’s invasion of Crimea. We can argue over how much more we could have done and what difference it might have made, but there’s no room for claiming we did nothing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operat...al?wprov=sfti1

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139720)
It’s almost as if international agreements are simply maintained for as long as expedient and dismissed once different priorities arise.
See above. It’s almost as if you see the world the way you want to see it regardless of the facts.

ianch99 10-11-2022 17:45
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36139717)
no one forgot it, it has been quoted in this thread many times.
Some have ...

---------- Post added at 17:45 ---------- Previous post was at 17:40 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36139732)
For our part, Operation Orbital (2015-2022) had trained 22,000 Ukrainian soldiers by the time the invasion began in February. It was a direct response to Russia’s invasion of Crimea. We can argue over how much more we could have done and what difference it might have made, but there’s no room for claiming we did nothing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operat...al?wprov=sfti1



See above. It’s almost as if you see the world the way you want to see it regardless of the facts.
The argument is not that we did something, but we did not do what was implicit from the agreement. Had we imposed the same sanctions we have now, we may not be here today.

jfman 10-11-2022 18:01
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36139732)
For our part, Operation Orbital (2015-2022) had trained 22,000 Ukrainian soldiers by the time the invasion began in February. It was a direct response to Russia’s invasion of Crimea. We can argue over how much more we could have done and what difference it might have made, but there’s no room for claiming we did nothing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operat...al?wprov=sfti1

See above. It’s almost as if you see the world the way you want to see it regardless of the facts.
A creative interpretation of the posts above, I’ll give it that.

---------- Post added at 18:01 ---------- Previous post was at 17:59 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36139733)
The argument is not that we did something, but we did not do what was implicit from the agreement. Had we imposed the same sanctions we have now, we may not be here today.
For some we can do absolutely no wrong. Events are interpreted in such a way we do exactly the right thing at exactly the right time. Always. Be that intervention or nothing, just pick and choose the past agreements or principles from international law to suit the occasion.

Paul 10-11-2022 18:47
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36139733)
Had we imposed the same sanctions we have now, we may not be here today.
Yes, we could have had our energy and cost of living crisis 8 years ago instead. :p:

Hugh 10-11-2022 19:25
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139739)
A creative interpretation of the posts above, I’ll give it that.

---------- Post added at 18:01 ---------- Previous post was at 17:59 ----------



For some we can do absolutely no wrong. Events are interpreted in such a way we do exactly the right thing at exactly the right time. Always. Be that intervention or nothing, just pick and choose the past agreements or principles from international law to suit the occasion.
Of course, the obverse is equally true for some… ;)

ianch99 10-11-2022 22:52
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36139742)
Yes, we could have had our energy and cost of living crisis 8 years ago instead. :p:
Yes .. when we could afford it.

---------- Post added at 22:52 ---------- Previous post was at 22:48 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36139739)
A creative interpretation of the posts above, I’ll give it that.

---------- Post added at 18:01 ---------- Previous post was at 17:59 ----------



For some we can do absolutely no wrong. Events are interpreted in such a way we do exactly the right thing at exactly the right time. Always. Be that intervention or nothing, just pick and choose the past agreements or principles from international law to suit the occasion.
If we're picking the "past agreements or principles" to justify support for Ukraine, which ones could we "pick from" would allow the opposite stance? If we are just being fickle in our cherry picking of international treaties & laws, I am intrigued to know which ones allow us to walk away from Ukraine and/or sell them short.

jfman 11-11-2022 04:52
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36139764)
If we're picking the "past agreements or principles" to justify support for Ukraine, which ones could we "pick from" would allow the opposite stance? If we are just being fickle in our cherry picking of international treaties & laws, I am intrigued to know which ones allow us to walk away from Ukraine and/or sell them short.
Presumably the same ones that allowed the US to withdraw from Afghanistan looting the Afghan central bank. A blind eye here, a nudge to the negotiating table there and bingo. America’s customers in Europe aren’t freezing to death and infrastructure systems hosting refugees can have that pressure released. Prepare for tears of joy going viral as families are reunited, whatever concessions are made deemed a reasonable compromise (whether they are or not) and Halliburton to trouser billions in rebuilding contracts.

Maybe I’m too cynical though.

1andrew1 11-11-2022 08:59
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36139764)
Yes .. when we could afford it.
Exactly - before Covid.

Damien 11-11-2022 09:09
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Looks like Ukraine is now advancing again on Kherson with reports of the Russian retreat being chaotic and now beset by panic as Russians try to flee over narrow bridges.

Hugh 11-11-2022 11:00
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Move along, please…

Let’s get back on topic

(Chris: Posts deleted to help keep things moving)

Damien 11-11-2022 11:03
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
The Ukrainian flag is flying in Kherson

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/...18735158329344

Quote:
Ukr flag raised in centre of Kherson by civilians

Damien 15-11-2022 18:56
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Russian missiles have hit Poland killing two people.

https://twitter.com/PA/status/1592589880915156992

Quote:
#Breaking A senior US intelligence official says that Russian missiles crossed into Nato member Poland, killing two people

Mick 15-11-2022 18:56
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
BREAKING: WARSAW, Poland (AP) — A senior U.S. intelligence official says Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people. - Associated Press.

Itshim 15-11-2022 19:00
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36140033)
BREAKING: WARSAW, Poland (AP) — A senior U.S. intelligence official says Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people. - Associated Press.
Start of phase 2 ? !!! Doubt NATO will do any thing if it was:shocked:

Damien 15-11-2022 19:02
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
It's almost certainly an accident but how Poland and Russia react will be critical now.

Mad Max 15-11-2022 19:14
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
There's no way Russia is backing down from this war, they may have gotten out of Kherson but their missiles are causing a lot of damage elsewhere.

Sirius 15-11-2022 19:18
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Itshim (Post 36140034)
Start of phase 2 ? !!! Doubt NATO will do any thing if it was:shocked:
Poland are well within there rights to retaliate if they wish. I just hope common sense prevails.

As for Natos artical 5

Collective defence means that an attack against one Ally is considered as an attack against all Allies.
The principle of collective defence is enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
NATO invoked Article 5 for the first time in its history after the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States.
NATO has taken collective defence measures on several occasions, including in response to the situation in Syria and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
NATO has standing forces on active duty that contribute to the Alliance’s collective defence efforts on a permanent basis.

Would or could that be used even if Russia claims a mistake or claims it was a False flag action by Ukraine

Mick 15-11-2022 19:28
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
“Reminder: NATO has invoked Article 5 just once in its history: after the September 11th terrorist attacks.

But NATO has taken collective defense measures on multiple instances, including over Syria and Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine earlier this year”. - Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy.

---------- Post added at 19:28 ---------- Previous post was at 19:20 ----------

LATEST: The Polish Air Force has scrambled fighter jets from the airport in Tomaszów Lubelski.

The Army and Prosecutor’s Office have arrived to the farm.

The reports about the missile attack are unofficial, but come from Radio Zet, a renowned Radio Station.

Polish PM Morawiecki & President Duda have summoned a crisis meeting of the National Security Bureau.

NATO article 5?

Invoking Article 5 puts us on a Nuclear war footing & ultimately WWIII.

Damien 15-11-2022 19:31
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
I don't think they'll invoke Article 5. At the very least there will be pressure from the rest of NATO not to invoke it over this. It's too much of an escalation to collectively take military action against Russia over two wayward missiles. There would have to be evidence of obvious intent.

Mick 15-11-2022 19:49
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
BREAKING: Russian Telegram channel Rybar will not rule out that a Russian missile landed in Poland

It admits that it could be a Kalibr or Kh-101 and predicts that Poland could theoretically invoke Article 5 but will likely choose a less extreme course of action - Samuel Ramani, Foreign Policy.

Damien 15-11-2022 20:12
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Some speculation now that it was the remains of a rocket shot down by Ukraine.

---------- Post added at 20:12 ---------- Previous post was at 19:56 ----------

Russia are denying it: https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...08d41054ea888a

Thay's concerning.

papa smurf 15-11-2022 20:30
Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36140042)
Some speculation now that it was the remains of a rocket shot down by Ukraine.

---------- Post added at 20:12 ---------- Previous post was at 19:56 ----------

Russia are denying it: https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...08d41054ea888a

Thay's concerning.
standard russian bullshit, deny all responsibility and blame someone else
it'll just go down as an accident no one's going to start ww3


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