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All Members are reminded not to use terms such as 'Usual Suspects' to describe any member. Thanks.
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It seems appropriate to remind people of the first post in this thread
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It appears the pen is mightier than the (s)word. ;) |
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Just as a vote to leave the EU did not lead to the near disaster as predicted by the remainers, so the real deal at the end of all this will produce more benefits than setbacks. There may be some wobbles between now and then, but that's just because the markets don't like uncertainty. It will pass. ---------- Post added at 16:54 ---------- Previous post was at 16:45 ---------- Quote:
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The rest of the world is rather bigger than the EU, and 'less than 1%' is an embarrassing understatement that will come back to haunt them. |
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I find this bit interesting "leaving the EU would result in a 2%-8% reduction in GDP"
It seems strange they couldn't narrow it down any better than 2% - 8%, which is a rather large margin considering less than 1% was the other 'option' |
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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a8201286.html
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Only tell half a misleading story, as usual, they also warned Brussels too, warning them the UK and EU is benefiting, not just the UK but also the EU and enhances the global economy as a whole. |
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The activists who are still fighting Brexit
Theresa May is facing calls to spell out what she wants from the next round of Brexit negotiations. But these four people believe remaining in the EU is still the best option, and have dedicated their lives to stopping Brexit http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-4290...ighting-brexit |
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If you and others want to criticise our hardworking civil servants because what they produce doesn't fit what Farage, Rees-Mogg preached etc it's your choice.. but constant sniping at servants of the Crown is not positive for democracy as the best people will leave. It's demotivating and you wouldn't like to be in their shoes. In the context of Brexit it would be fantastic to hear some positive well-argued reasons as to why our civil servants are wrong. I guess I'm saying let's move on from a "I'm wrong, you're right" type of thing to something better argued. If there's a conspiracy theory behind it or well-calculated data, let's hear them. |
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Hmm. Is this what "taking back control" looks like!
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oh, more analysts announcing impending doom . . . http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...-hit-uk-trade/
some snippets: Over 2017 as a whole exports rose by £62.5bn, outpacing the £55.5bn rise in imports and so reduced the deficit to £33.7bn. Despite the drag from trade in December the economy still accelerated overall in the final quarter of the year to grow by 0.5pc, even with these specific headwinds. “Excluding oil and erratic items, growth in export volumes exceeded growth in imports in the fourth quarter, suggesting that the underlying picture for net trade is much better than these figures suggest,” said Paul Hollingsworth at Capital Economics. The National Institute for Economic and Social Affairs estimates that UK GDP grew by 0.5pc in the three months to January, with both the manufacturing and services sectors contributing to the expansion. "We are forecasting GDP growth of close to 2pc this year assuming a soft Brexit scenario," said Niesr's Amit Kara. "At this speed the economy could start to overheat unless the Bank of England withdraws some of the stimulus that it has injected by raising the policy rate." Mr Kara anticipates an interest rate rise in May, and another hike every six months until the base rate reaches 2pc. Doesn't sound like a doomsday scenario to me, but it is short term . . . and we haven't left yet (added for Andrew) ;) |
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Once again, I point out that the forecasts about how we would fare after a Brexit vote have been way out, but your deference to ‘experts’ and ‘independent civil servants’ is clouding your judgement. |
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The forecasts we're seeing now aren't Project Fear. They've been scrutinised millions of times over by a Brexit-focused Government. We're also not seeing contradictory forecasts from other organisations. All are saying that Brexit means a reduction in growth and that's what we're seeing now as the Eurozone outpaces us. Maybe you'd Prefer Bill at No. 35 to do your cataract operation on his day off from Tesco. I'd prefer to trust experts if I can understand their logic. Optimism on its own doesn't change the facts of geography and economics. Simply saying that because Project Fear has not come to pass, all economists' predictions will always be wrong is flawed.That clearly isn't the case as they would all be out of jobs. |
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Can't wait for the toryexit...:)
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Plenty of talk about the recent EU negotiations.
Less emphasised was the fact that a long-scheduled meeting between EU and UK negotiators on Friday, to discuss the post-transition future relationship, had been cancelled following a “diary clash” on the British side. Of course, that's a polite term to cover the fact the UK side still haven't agreed amongst themselves what future relationship they want with the EU. |
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Our negotiation tactics are doing fine. We'll tell the EU what we want when we're ready. |
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At present of course, we work under the EU tariff schedule where MFN tariffs range from very low up to nearly 50% for dairy products for example. Should we look at reproducing what we have now post leaving or change emphasis? The current schedule is highly protectionist over agricultural products and commercial automotive industries. What would people on her like to see? If we firm up what our import tariffs would be, then we would have a baseline for negotiation. One other point - could we and should we continue the 'everything but arms' program where we do not charge import tariffs on the 47 poorest countries? I would suggest yes but I would be interested in other peoples opinions. |
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Since the vote I've met people who voted leave who have now changed their mind once becoming more informed about the implications, conversely some who voted to stay have said they would vote leave if another referendum takes place due to the behaviour of the EU during Brexit negotiations.
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The EU are nothing but a corrupt set of bullies and I’m glad it is backfiring on them politically for trying to take the tough stance on us.
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You may be right that at least some forecasts are not designed deliberately to put fear into the minds of voters, but I am afraid they are not taking full account of the opportunities to be gained from Brexit. Furthermore, they are not taking account of the fact that there will be a minimal adverse impact on trade if we get the deal our government wants. Despite all Brexit forecasts so far, there is little evidence that any of them are anywhere near right, and the siren voices who proclaimed a major impact immediately following the vote to leave have been proved hilariously wrong. I find no reason at all to believe that the economy will suffer post Brexit. The EU isn't that great. |
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Switzerland is in the EU single market but not in the customs union. For every export to Switzerland from the EU, a 'preferential certificate of origin' is required which states that the goods were made or significantly processed in the EU and therefore covered by the Switzerland/EU trade agreements. This ensures that the correct tariffs, if any are applied to the goods on import. If and when we leave the customs union, all exports to the EU from the UK will require either a preferential (deal) or non-preferential (no deal) certificate of origin to ensure that the goods originated in the UK and not imported from a third country and shipped through the UK to the EU, thus importing to the EU 'through the back door'. Certificates of origin are not an EU thing, it is an internationally agreed instrument of global trading. The company I work for estimates certificates of origin take 3-5 'man minutes' per order to complete. So, for a 1000 orders, that's 50-83 man hours. That's 2 additional head count for a small number of orders. At present, 45% of our exports go to the EU and will need this certification where they didn't before. On the plus side, that's additional employment. On the minus side, that's a significant increase in costs to an exporter meaning they will either have to take the cost or increase pricing to maintain margins, making our good less competitive on the global market. Ignoring every other tariff and non-tariff trade barrier, something simple like certificates of origin will have an impact... |
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If there’s a common tariff, then the certification isn’t needed. Unfortunately, that’s a customs union which HMG has said we’re leaving. Personally, I think we will be in a customs union with the EU after leaving but it won’t be called that. |
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However.... This will be the governments toughest sales job ever both to members of their own party and the general public. |
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We do not yet know what either agreement will look like but all will be revealed eventually. The government is deliberately keeping its cards close to its chest, and for good reason. When you look at Barnier's stance, and the growing reaction to that from other EU countries, it is clear, as it has always been, that ultimately the EU must face the reality of our leaving and that without a deal, the EU will be much worse off. I know it is frustrating for everyone that things are moving so slowly, but the government know how the EU operates very well. May has not lost her way on this, and some of the voices off are necessary to show the EU that she has little room for maneouvre. The detail of Britain's proposals will be revealed when Barnier and his nasty friends are willing to listen. Shouldn't be too much longer now - be patient! |
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It's not about being negative or positive, Brexiter or Remainer. It's about the facts of international trade. |
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In other news, the letter presented in 2016 by the Japanese Ministry for Foreign Affairs to the UK and EU has just been published. It’s pretty blunt! The requests are on page 4 with extra details further on. You can see it here - http://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000185466.pdf |
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Japan knows it's playing on the slide, not the climbing frame. They're just trying to make sure their economy doesn't hit a brick wall by ensuring ours does :p:
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For example, you can have frictionless trade for certain goods and not others. I haven't looked into this, but it may be possible to give the UK some sort of agency status to conduct certain affairs on behalf of the EU, and the EU on behalf of the UK. It is a question of looking in detail at the rules and working out how they can be applied in this situation. It is not as black and white as some are making out. The government has said often enough that our future outside the EU is dependent on our being able to strike our own trade deals. If what you said was correct, why do you think the government is proceeding in the way it is? Problems are rarely insurmountable. |
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I guess it would be repetitive to remind everyone of all the economic forecasts that have been completely wrong. Wasn't the economy meant to have nose dived by now, incidentally? :rolleyes: |
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All the speculation and 'what ifs' do but the facts of what's actually happened despite all the remain side's numerous predictions of doom about what would follow the vote can just be forgotten and in no way cast any doubt on the validity of their argument. Talk about being selective eh?... |
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The EU is backwards, for the 21st Century that fact you have to be in a "club" and pay billions into this club in order to trade and make rules is prehistoric. We need to be out of this club we are being used not just by the EU but the world that is using the UK as a means to gain access to the EU.
The world needs to know that we are standing on our own 2 feet now. Where was the EU when it came to paying back the billions of $$ in order to save it from WW2 no thanks for that. Especially when you get the likes of Junker making fun of the UK "******" and people want to be part of this club. I would sooner go off the cliff edge than stick around in a club that more than likely sniggers at the UK when we are not around. Racists they are and we can't even claim back on investments put into the EU but they are happy to take billions in a divorce bill for future commitments. How many are these so called experts actually genuine in wanting to leave or had back handers to say these dooms day things? As I already said companies currently putting prices up and using Brexit as an excuse is utter bull they don't even know how all this will turn out yet but have made a mockery out of the general public riding on the back off it. The governement needs to step in on this as well. |
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It. Didn't. Happen. |
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Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. :D |
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The bremoaners are peeing me off, with the constant going on and on about stopping brexit.
We're leaving get the fuff over it. |
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Yes, the value of GBP has gone down in the past and will go up again. However, we live in a globalised world now. The level of self sufficiency of the UK is lower now than ever - we need to import goods just as much as other countries want to import what we make and use services we provide.
The effect of globalisation means that exchange rate fluctuations make a bigger difference than ever to the UK population and business. Sometimes it will work in your favour (my salary is in GBP and is set but underlying this, I am officially paid in USD so I am cheaper to employ) Sometime it doesn’t (my company sells to the UK in GBP but accounts in USD so the UK branch is making less money) |
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As for imports from the EU, if they get to expensive, we will import from elsewhere. So the problem is.... Sorry, you've got me there. :shrug: ---------- Post added at 22:51 ---------- Previous post was at 22:48 ---------- Quote:
If so, I agree. If not, we have a problem. ;) ---------- Post added at 22:53 ---------- Previous post was at 22:51 ---------- Quote:
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Trust you to paint the negatives at the exclusion of the positives, Andrew! Please let's have some honesty in this debate. Are you dependent on the EU for your pension, by any chance? |
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That's not negative or positive. Honesty is not pretending you can have your cake and eat it and accepting the knowledge of people who actually work in import/export like jonbxx even if it's uncomfortable. With regard to your EU pension question, nope, I'm not Nigel Farage and you can't claim your £5! :D |
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However, the main point I was making, which I'm sure you will not disagree with, is that a decrease in the value of the pound makes it cheaper for us to export our goods. I think that, being an honest person, you would agree that this is a fact. I hope I have not misjudged you. |
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What I should have said was that while EU exports are more expensive for us to import with a weaker pound, with our new found ability to trade with additional countries, those same goods may be cheaper. The EU is not necessarily the cheapest to import from, I would say. Anyway, the cheaper pound does not seem to have affected the average man in the street much, so it's not a reason in itself not to leave the EU. |
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The UK isn't much of a primary manufacturer (raw materials) What's left of our manufacturing base is secondary manufacturing - making things, not materials basically. Those raw materials need to be shipped in from somewhere so while a low GBP may help exports, it adds to the costs of the raw materials used to make what we export which will impact margins.
Fun fact of the day - cars produced in the UK contain only 44% of UK made content, the rest is imported. Most trade agreements require >50% of a product to be made in country for preferential trade deals to apply. UK manufactured Nissans and Hondas would not be regarded as UK made. Some canny trade negotiations would be required here. Source - Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders https://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/up...ew-Figures.pdf |
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Considering the EU imports probably 10 times the amount of cars and car parts into the UK than the UK export to the EU, I'd suggest the EU need to tread carefully if they try to shaft us on any deals regarding the Auto industry.
They need to strike a good (fair) deal or it may bite them in the exhaust manifold. And if the motor manufacturers pull out of the UK, just slap their imports with a massive tariff - I can go without a new car for a year or two while their stock piles up :D |
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Many thanks in advance! |
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Interesting interview with Sir David Warren, British ambassador to Tokyo from 2008 to 2012, and now head of the Japan Society, the leading independent body in Britain on UK-Japan relations. Some extracts below.
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https://uk.news.yahoo.com/eu-seeks-p...165151876.html |
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The Trump administration said it was weighing broad-based tariffs and quotas to curb imports of steel and aluminum in the name of "national security Or stock exchanges SEC blocks Chicago Stock Exchange sale to China-based investors |
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I have no problem with that. It's a demonstration of how all agreements should be negotiated. Why are you so afraid of that? |
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The NHS will always be free at the point of delivery. Why should it matter who delivers it, as long as they are competent? I've seen enough of the people I know who have opted in the end for private health treatment that they have paid for, who say they are amazed at how well they were treated compared with their previous NHS experiences. Why should I, or anyone else, worry that my treatment is provided by the private sector if I don't have to pay for it? Oh, and by the way, the last period of Labour Government introduced a fair amount of privatisation, so let's not go down that ideological route! |
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There are no plans to have people pay for NHS treatment, which will remain free at the point of delivery, whether the public or private sector is providing the service. Tha academy schools are run by the private sector, but they don't expect parents to pay for their children to get educated there, do they? As for private patients in NHS wards, you forget that whether you are a NHS or private patient, you still have the right to NHS care. It should also be remembered that private patients take a lot of strain off the NHS. As for private ambulances, they are being brought in to take the strain of an overloaded health service, caused by an ever growing number of people using it. Without the private sector, you would have even longer waits following 999 calls. |
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Academy run schools: Struggling the same way as ordinary schools and getting Government help with funding. I may be wrong (often am) but I thought the idea of an academy school was to place it in private hands to save tax payers money?
Private patients take a lot of strain off the NHS is it by using NHS facilities, equipment and personnel? Used to be called 'queue jumping' at one time. And don't get me started on NHS dentists v Private dentists Private ambulances 29 September 2017 One of the largest providers of private ambulance services in the Eastern region went into administration today. “We have been very concerned about this company for months. Both patients and staff have suffered. We know of numerous cases of vulnerable patients not being collected from hospital and ambulances that failed to meet even basic standards of road worthiness.” https://eastern.unison.org.uk/news/2...dministration/ It all seems to me to have the look of 'Carillion Mk2' about it :( |
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Revealed: rightwing groups plot to ditch EU safety standards on food and drugs
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Another fear mongering bullshit story. Sourced from the crappy leftie, vomit inducing guardian.
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Cheers Dave |
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My turn for question time... I don’t understand the need why you keep saying ‘cheers Dave’ at the end of every post, but there you go. (Here’s a tip, get a signature that does it for you.) :rolleyes: |
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Cheers Mr K. |
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I don’t care how my sign offs look, here’s another....
Back on topic. |
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So I take it you don't think calling them 'crappy leftie, vomit inducing' is even slightly childish? Regards Dave |
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https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...24&postcount=3 But then I guess this isn't a forum with close links to newspapers in general or the guardian in particular |
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This will be the last time I say back on topic, unless people actually want a forum break?!?! |
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https://www.ft.com/content/9cd44aa0-...e-08320fc2a277
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(sorry for posting from the 'lefty vomit inducing 'Financial Times' ...) |
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The Financial Times is one of the most reasonable rational newspapers and there ain't many of those..
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The arrangement proposed by Brussels . . . just say no, it's that easy |
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