Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

I think they will contest the election. I don't quite know how, assuming Brexit is delivered, but the general anti-politics, anti-establishment mood is not going anywhere anytime soon and they'll tap into that.

My best guess is come the next general election there will be something about Brexit they can run on. No Brexit yet? Obvious. Brexit Deal? Run against the Deal. No Deal? Point to every negative as a result of the 'bungling' of Brexit or just against the elites generally.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Both of those cases were elections held using systems that offer proportionality to some degree or other. That allows new parties to get a foothold and it also allows voters the confidence to know if they vote for the upstart it is not a wasted vote.

Our electoral system was designed for a two-party House of Commons, and while we may no longer have two parties nationally, three-way marginals at a constituency level are comparatively rare. Generally, voters in each constituency, if they want their vote to count, either support the incumbent or the previous party to hold the seat. Change happens, but is slow (my local Westminster seat, over the last 25 years, has gone Tory, Labour, SNP, and back to Tory - that is not the common experience in the UK, even discounting the SNP).

British electors are sophisticated - some of the most sophisticated in the world. They know how the system works and for the most part they vote to maximise their potential benefit within it. Disruptive newcomers, as happened in Israel and France, just can't have that effect here. If they could, UKIP would have had a clutch of seats in every election over the last 10 years.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Nobody can possibly forecast that. If the Conservatives deliver a pure Brexit, the confidence of voters will be restored.

If they don't, God knows what will happen!

---------- Post added at 20:25 ---------- Previous post was at 20:22 ----------

It is far too early to speculate on a General Election.

The Brexit Party is focussed on the EU elections, and if they win the day and parliament actually listens at last, there will be no need for them to stand at the General Election.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Bombshell: ComRes General Election poll in tomorrow's Telegraph finds the Brexit Party have overtaken the Conservative Party. :eek:

Labour: 27%
Brexit Party: 20%
Conservative: 19%

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

You forgot to mention who is ahead of both those parties....

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

I forgot nothing because I wasn't talking of the party that's ahead. :rolleyes:

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Ok Comrade, I'll let you off ;)

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Perhaps you need to look again....

Westminster voting intention.

via YouGov , Chgs. w/ 30 Apr.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

tbh if the Brexit Party are still around by the next General Election in 2022, Brexit won't have happened. And if it has, they'll be an irrelevance and Nigel will have formed yet another party, with himself as leader of course.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

The Brexit party will be around until parliament honour the result of the referendum.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

. . which will then lead to formation of the Backin party, led by the mighty Mr Blair probably :D

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Here is the latest.

Westminster voting intention.

via @Kantar , 09 - 13 May
Chgs. w/ 08 Apr

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

I have no problem with that, be interesting to see what the voters think.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Some unsurprising Public opinion towards the two main political leaders of their parties...

via @YouGov, 14 - 15 May

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

lol, a pretty even match between the two of them!

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Two dismal leaders of their parties that is for sure.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Compared to Failing Grayling's seven failures, those two are slick operators!
https://news.sky.com/story/off-the-r...yling-11651998

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

SNP getting an absolute pasting by their fellow Scots on Question Time tonight. Wonderful. :D

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

If Grayling's was a COE at any decent company they would have got rid of him long before now.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

That's probably why he's still hanging on..He'd never get a cushy job post government if he's judged on his achievements.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

BREAKING: Death to May's premiership by a thousand paper cuts... Letters pile in to 1922 Committee Chairman, Graham Brady, insisting Theresa May must resign immediately. BBC's Laura Kuenssberg...

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status...30614273462278

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Theresa May is just keeping him there to make herself look vaguely competent!

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

You’ll absolutely love this Mick. The “journalist” who penned this piece, Lesley Riddoch, used to be known as an independence-leaning but generally respected newspaper columnist in Scotland. But since 2014 she’s gone full-on regime apologist, and tore in to Question Time for daring to attempt to put together a balanced audience. Her reasoning for claiming an edition broadcast from Moray in northeast Scotland deserved to have its audience deliberately tilted towards the SNP is priceless. And apparently she’s only just noticed that political parties try to get their local association members in the audience, even though local SNP branches, as with all the others, have been at it for years.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinio...ogue-1-4930316

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

The latest Westminster voting intention.

via @Panelbase, 14 - 21 May
Chgs. w/ 24 Apr

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Mel Stride appointed leader of the HOC

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Helen Grant, MP for Maidstone and the Weald, has announced her resignation on Twitter. She says:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...exit-live-news

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

As expected May has resigned. Effective Friday 7th June.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Her speech is an a absolute disgrace

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Lack of self awareness.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

That's been one of her issues since day one.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

It was boooooooooooooring i just wished her to shut up and just go.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Good riddance l say as that is one terrible party leader gone and hopefully the other one will be in his bike as soon as possible..

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

:D

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

and a lack of reality. Boris it is then ...

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

So your backing Boris eh.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Another duplicitous and mendacious politician if ever l saw one..

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Isnt he Trumps twin brother .... :D

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

You wish :) Just stating the current odds ... you disagree then?

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

:D

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

The play for the Tory leadership crown begins with Michael Gove already making a big pledge.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...m-eu-nationals

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48428761

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Jeremy Hunt leading the early race to be Tory leader.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...e-live-updates

https://www.conservativehome.com/par...-javid-10.html

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

They're all 'leading the race' dependent on which paper/news site you look at :D

still the same scenario as before though, lots of ideas that won't leave the ground and fly

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Raab wants to cut income tax for the majority of earnings, 20% band, by near 25%!. 5p off a Pound. Mental.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

15% basic rate of tax? Sounds like a vote winner to me!

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Until you have to explain where the money is going to be cut. People aren't keen on austerity. Although knowing the Conservatives it'll probably be by making everyone under 40 pay for their medical treatment. :rolleyes:

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Usual playbook. Let the Millennials pay. The Governent debt has increased under Theresa May so this looks a particularly foolish suggestion.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Tax is just something poor people pay.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

The NHS is on its knees now and tax cuts might seem all fine and dandy for some but the NHS and other public services need to be paid for and two thirds of the public are happy to do that with increases in public spending.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-...ublic-services

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

The public might want more spending on the NHS but they don't all get to choose the next Prime Minister at the moment. That's up to the Party's members to decide and they may favour a tax-cutting PM.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Or people who understand that supporting society and the services it requires need people to contribute their fair share.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Yes poor people contribute a fair share, this is in gratitude to the rich people who give them jobs.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

"give them jobs" :D

So charitable of them, and they lose money on the jobs they "give" them...

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Two more hopefuls join the race to become the new Conservative party leader.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ce-theresa-may



Plus the BBC announces head-to-head debates in the Tory leadership race.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...e-live-updates

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Of course, this all hinges on the definition of "fair". Fair for who, you might say. I do genuinely fail to understand why the (growing) number of people who have more wealth than any individual can reasonably spend in their lifetime should not distribute some of these monies to help their fellow citizens.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

I'm sure you sould be very good at spending other people's money for them.

They've earned it, so it's their money and they can spend it as they wish.

There will always be poor people, no matter how much money you throw at the problem. Haven't the Communists proved that to you by now?

At this rate, we might get Corbyn in power so he can prove that all over again. People never learn, do they? :(

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

What do you think would be an acceptable tax rate and which services do you think shouldn't be publically funded?

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

An acceptable tax rate should apply to everyone so let's keep it simple.
Everyone pays 10% paye, any unearned income (profit on shares, golden handshakes etc) 20%. That would be per person who resides in the country or earns money in it before leaving. The money raised on that alone would fund most services in this country.

Action against companies would have to be different as at present EU law is used for tax avoidance in this country.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

I don't know how much that would actually raise in comparison to now but I suspect it would be less since even the lowest tax rate payable is 20%. I can't see how that wouldn't be a massive cut.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Consider this, just a small example. A football player earning the millions they do having to pay 10% PAYE rather than a shell company being created around them to avoid paying tax.

If everyone had to pay 10% on monies they received before any relief claim on a PAYE basis. This country would be so much richer.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

I love the simplicity you apply to this. I'll bite: tell me how someone how someone with assets in the billions has "earned" this amount of wealth?

Then tell me why, from a moral perspective, such wealth is justified in this small group of individuals?

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

If a person has assets worth billions consider how much the 20% tax on the unearned interest on those billions will be. Certainly more than now.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

I like your thinking on the avoidance aspect. You would need a variable scale to accommodate the differing degrees of wealth.

---------- Post added at 15:42 ---------- Previous post was at 15:40 ----------

The definition of earnings is too nuanced, deliberately so. You would need to implement via a Wealth Tax rather than an Income tax.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Why would I need to implement a wealth tax? I do not wish to tax their wealth, just what they earn on it.

If they use it to fund companies investment etc I have no problem with it. Unearned income is where the money is just used as an investment and taxed at 20%. Don't forget no tax relief just like those on PAYE don't have now.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

So, to clarify, you're advocating those on a minimum wage should pay 10% tax & also NI?

Are there any tax free allowances or would those be scrapped?

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

No tax free allowances, no separate NI. Income would still exceed present without hurting anyone.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

But that would mean someone on £12,500 pa who presently pays no income tax and pays £464 in NI, would end up paying £1,250 per year, losing £65.50 per month of their take home pay (which is a fair percentage of their take home pay of £1,003). Anyone earning under £15,750 would be worse off.

Someone on £85k would pay around £27k in tax and NI pa under the current system, but under your proposed system they would only pay £8.5k - so they would gain £1,500 per month whilst someone on 1/7th of that salary loses money; doesn’t seem very fair...

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Of course they've earned it, and if the wealth just came to them without trying, why don't you have a go at it?

The ability to earn a lot of money by working hard, taking financial risks and responsibility is what motivates people, and in the end, this benefits everyone.

Maggie Thatcher's government proved that when you lower tax rates for the rich, you increase money raised from tax. Things are not as simple as you seem to think. Lower tax regimes encourage investment and increase tax take.

If you pay everyone the same, you are applying Communist principles, and look what happened to all Communist countries throughout the world. Everyone became poor. Because there were no incentives any more. Why should Fred work harder than Jo if both would still earn the same?

The only exception is modern day China, which has permitted entrepreneurism and wealth creation.

I am surprised you cannot see this.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

A few people have earned large fortunes from nothing. Many more people have earned large fortunes because they had a wealthy, well-connected family to help them get started. Their ability to earn from a similar input of hours and graft is therefore much higher.

Very few people seriously advocate Communist-style wage parity these days - those who complain about massive pay disparity are not doing that. This isn’t a binary argument. And Thatcher, incidentally, seeing as she’s been brought into this, always said she believed in equality of opportunity. A great deal of wealth inequality arises from opportunities being unequal.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

:tu: This ..

The system, as it stands, cannot be justified by anyone with a moral viewpoint. The system has just been allowed to run too far without intervention. there is no incentive for the wealthy to redistribute their excessive wealth in the ways needed by the challenges we face so the system will need to change to help them.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

A spot on analysis.:tu:

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

I have no problems with people being ultra wealthy etc. so long as things such as tax avoidance etc are cracked down on and people/businesses pay their fair share.

---------- Post added at 10:48 ---------- Previous post was at 10:46 ----------

Mackenzie Besos ?

Set to donate half of her $37bn divorce settlement.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Equality of opportunity is paramount, not to be confused with equality of outcomes.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Theresa's having a day out at the Cricket. Do you think she's rung in sick ? ;)

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Not sticking up for her but are not people all entitled to have a day off occasionally.;)

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Nah, I reckon she pulled a sickie. Should have worn a hat/dark glasses.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Interesting point. Some thoughts:

- she decides how the money is allocated. Is she the best person to do this?
- did she "earn" this money?
- would it not have been better if the Amazon employees to be better paid in the first place and Mr & Mrs Bezos to have less billions?

Don't forget, the system is a closed(ish) one. If some have disproportionately more, a great many will have less. Having less when you struggle to make ends meet means a more for them than a billionaire having less billions.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

OK, to answer your points

it's her money, if its a choice between her deciding or the money not being made available then yes, it's fair for her to decide.

legally, yes, she did earn the money

Amazon employees recently received a raise increase in the US to $15ph and in the UK to £9.50PH

Another one for you to consider, the Bill & Melinda (Gates) foundation is working it's way towards giving $60Bn away in the form of various initiatives.

There are wealthy people who do a lot of good in the world.

Here's a US article from a couple of years ago for you to look at

http://money.com/money/4543503/wealt...-philanthropy/

returning back to the pay amazon employees more, that's not how it works. if you were to start paying low skilled employees a significant increase on salaries then the salaries for skilled employees are going to rise also. costs of living, inflation increasing etc. leaving the low skilled/low paid employees exactly where they were with a much devalued currency

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Legally yes but morally? Also, define "earn" in your context

I am very aware of the concept of billionaire philanthropy but the whole thing is predicated on a construct that is flawed. My point is that no one should be allowed to accrue such wealth in the first place. The wealth curve needs to be much flatter so allow a return the position where the employer/employee relationship was a symbiotic one and not exploitative as it is now.

Look at the examples set by John Lewis and Richer Sounds. These prove that you can have successful businesses and have a balance between profit and responsibility.

---------- Post added at 15:46 ---------- Previous post was at 15:44 ----------

Sounds a good idea. Can you move these posts to a new thread titled "Capitalism: still fit for purpose?" or should I open one myself?

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

If you kindly provide to me the posts via (The #number in top right corner) that need to be in a new thread, I will move them out of this thread to the new thread.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

I think these are the ones:

#2056, #2057, #2058, #2059, #2060, #2061, #2062, #2063, #2064, #2065, #2066, #2067, #2068, #2069, #2070, #2071, #2072, #2073, #2074, #2078, #2079, #2081

Thanks for doing this, I appreciate it.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

This is interesting:

'Stop Raab': Tory moderates seek to block hardliner's path to PM

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Westminster voting intention.


via Opinium Research, 28 - 30 May
Chgs. w/ 20 May

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

More on the Opinium poll that was released.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...atives-opinium

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

This is absurd and everyone needs to take a step back and a deep breath.

The Lib Dems surged in 2015 after the leaders TV debates and they eventually did well but nowhere near the landslide that first appeared.

The SDP surged in the polls after they were formed in 1981 and reached 50% in at least one opinion poll that year. Their vote share in alliance with the Liberals was eventually in the mid 20s% at the 1983 election.

General elections are big beasts and voters know their importance. They don’t change their allegiances easily, regardless of what they say in mid-term polls - consider how little has changed in terms of vote share since 2005. It’s less than you might think.

The polls should certainly give both Tory and Labour strategists sleepless nights and there’s no doubt the Brexit party would be extremely disruptive if an election was held any time soon, and before Brexit has actually happened. But the idea that Farage is going to win 306 seats is laughable. If he came away with even 36 that would be revolutionary.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Matthew Parris and his thoughts on Boris Johnson and potential elections ahead.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/l...88ce513ef35bc5

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

The latest Westminster voting intention.

http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

Re: Brexit
 

Police probe by-election fraud
POLICE are investigating allegations of electoral fraud during the Peterborough by-elections, which saw Labour trump the Brexit Party by a narrow margin.

Three of the complaints are to do with postal voting, while one relates to bribery and corruption and another concerns breach of privacy. An election observer also raised concerns over the behaviour of certain voters during the June 6 by-election.

Former Liberal Democrat candidate John Ault said he saw voters photographing their ballot papers.
Mr Ault said to The Mail on Sunday: "I have observed many elections across Europe and only once in Kazchstan many years ago, did I see what I saw happen three times in Peterborough."


https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...tewart-no-deal


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-48665324


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/v...ough-bcpmdm8zj

Re: Brexit
 

What he actually said, in context...

https://democracyvolunteers.org/2019...tion-06-06-19/ Any concerns should be investigated, and if criminal acts occurred, prosecution should happen.

Re: Brexit
 

Yup, no one is hurt by an investigation and if something is found and was serious enough they'll have to rerun the election as they did with that Tory seat. The photographing of ballots suggest they needed to 'prove' who they voted for.

---------- Post added at 16:25 ---------- Previous post was at 16:24 ----------

Moved to this thread as not strictly Brexit related

Re: Brexit
 

I wonder what the going rate is for a vote ? and what is the punishment if you get caught?

Re: Brexit
 

People go to prison for such things IIRC. It's taken seriously.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

The votes probably aren’t being bought, it’s more likely the head of the family has told everyone who to vote for and demanded proof, because polling station returning officers are trained to spot and challenge attempts at family voting these days. Gone are the days when a man in his 50s could just walk in to a polling with a sheaf of proxy approvals, or with his wife, children and aged aunts and wait while they collect their ballot papers and then give them to him to fill in.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Is that a cultural thing??? my family would tell to [go away] .

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

It is and I don't think it's illegal as so long as they aren't being coerced or paid. Ultimately people can choose the basis for their vote even if it's 'my dad says so'. Really it's not that different to the 'my family has always voted Labour' stuff.

Although if they aren't being coerced then why take the picture....

In the end this is why it should be looked into.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

I suspect the act of photographing the ballot is evidence of coercion, especially if the photo has been sent to someone rather than posted on Facebook (as some dimwit nationalists were doing in Scotland in 2014).

And yes, it’s definitely an issue in some ethnic communities rather than others.