Re: Brexit discussion
 

Jon has shown you how accurate the forecasts have actually been so I won’t duplicate his good efforts here in pointing out your confirmation bias.

How much does the economy need to suffer by for you to change your mind? Or is anything acceptable if it means we get to leave the EU. Do we actually have to suffer the loss first or will you accept the British Government’s analysis?

No one on here has said the EU is the be all and end all. People like me have said it’s imperfect but it’s the largest market in the world, it’s on our doorstep and it provides access to the largest number of free trade agreements across the globe. We’ve also pointed out that non-tariff barriers are more important than tariff barriers when it comes to trade with the EU and that services are a key export which are unlikely to be covered by a free trade deal. Both of these factors would penalise the UK even in the case of a free trade deal.

The EU negotiations haven’t been going staggeringly well by any account including the Government's. Indeed, the Foreign Secretary recently called for them to be outsourced to Donald Trump!

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Are you not just ignoring these forecasts from a wide range of sources just because they disagree with your vision of the future and for no other reason than that?

The future has not happened yet, we have not left the EU so how can you dismiss projections on what is yet to come?

Let's be honest here, you just do not like what they are saying so you rationalise them, as many do, as lies. The sad and depressing part is when this charade does play out and the UK is poorer off as a result of Brexit, there will be those who say that "I did not vote to be poorer". You may not be one of them but for many, their personal prosperity is important.

I know. "It will be fine, just have Faith" but the good ship Brexit has hit the iceberg. The lookouts did shout out "Iceberg Ahead!" but those in charge, on the bridge as it were, chose not to listen.

We've hit the iceberg but the ship seems fine. The lights are still on, the message from the bridge is that all is well and the band is playing on, where's the problem? After all, the ship is unsinkable .. I was told this when I boarded so it will be fine, honest. Don't believe the doomsayers, what do they know?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

As you say, how can such analysis be dismissed when we're still in the EU?

The consensus of forecasts from forecasters who have got things right time after time is that the UK will be worse off outside the EU, in all scenarios.

However, that truth is far too inconvenient for those who prefer the comforting steer of the establishment organs the Daily Express, Daily Mail and The Sun instead of looking at the data and working out what it means.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I can see the whole Brexit tower come toppling down next year and not happen

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Forecasts of the Brexit vote were spot on . . . oh hang on :p:

Our estimated probability of a Leave win is 13% and so Remain have an 87% chance of winning.

taken from here (March 2016) https://electionsetc.com/2016/03/14/...it-referendum/

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Lol, I'm talking about those economic forecasters who have been consistently accurate, not some political forecaster who hasn't.

---------- Post added at 03:02 ---------- Previous post was at 03:01 ----------

Can you expand a bit more on this? Why do you think this?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

The thing about probability is sometimes the less likely scenario is what happens.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Which can lead to over 16 million people sulking and chucking their dummies out of the pram , but their all over that now aren't they ?;)

Re: Brexit discussion
 

What some people seem to be forgetting is that they are referring to “parliamentary democracy” AFTER we have left the EU. The Remainers are currently abusing parliamentary democracy by trying to stymie the real piece of democracy - the Referendum.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Let me ask you this: if Parliament, the sovereign entity so much part of the Leave campaign, decides that the deal brought back from Brussels by the Executive, is not in the best interests of the country does it have the right to intervene?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Intervene in what way? By saying 'game over we're staying in'?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

That's not how Parliamentary Democracy works....

The Referendum said we should leave, and we should all accept that - the Parliamentary Democracy bit is that it shouldn't be a deal that beggars the country, or splits up the United Kingdom; under Parliamentary Democracy, the Government of the Day answers to the House of Commons - Parliament controls the executive by passing or rejecting its Bills and by forcing Ministers of the Crown to answer for their actions.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Intervene as in how the word is defined:

You elect Parliament to govern the country. You give them your authority to make decisions on your behalf. That is sort of how this stuff works. If you do not allow Parliament to validate and assess any outcome of the process the Referendum started then we do not have what the Leavers were so passionate about i.e. a sovereign Parliament able to decide and enact UK law.

Sort of ironic isn't it?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

There is something to be said for the Swiss 'direct democracy' way of doing things. Referenda can be called by the people if there's enough support to block new laws and/or change the constitution.

Four referenda a year must be exhausting though!

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Don't the Gov get the last say on Brexit considering all the in fighting at the moment and facing the fact the EU is messing us about at the min we arent that long away now from actually leaving and don't appear to have got much from all the talks so far. unless there is a lot we don't know about yet that hasn't been given out to the general public