Re: Brexit discussion
 

Quite right, Carth. All these negative forecasts have assumptions built in that may be right, but in my opinion are likely to be wrong. One of the assumptions made by the OBR, for example, is that if that money stops being sent to Brussels it will be spent elsewhere by the government, which means that it makes almost no difference when forecasting future borrowing. That's a pretty big assumption to make, isn't it? Nobody apart from the Government knows what the precise plans are for spending money, so you can take such forecasts with a pinch of salt.

I say again what I have been saying all along - most economic forecasts have been wrong in the past and yet some on this forum think they are gospel!

---------- Post added at 11:13 ---------- Previous post was at 11:09 ----------

I don't disrespect the work the civil servants do. I just happen to think they are wrong on this particular subject.

You seem to be in awe of them, for some reason.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I think guesswork is a little strong. There are certainly projections based on 'what if' scenarios but no matter how rigorous your model, economics is a somewhat chaotic system, hence the error bars that are shown in the studies that never reach the headline figures. This is the same as projections of climate change and weather.

What is important however, is the general trend of the studies. All studies except the Economists for Brexits study predict a lower performance for the UK compared to our local peers. There is no solid figure agreed between the studies on the absolute effect of Brexit as each model is different. However, if they all point in the same direction, it's worth paying some kind of attention to the general trend. Again, this is much like climate change where 90 odd percent of studies agree that there is a predicted upturn in global temperatures but no solid agreement in how much.

A second point to note is that government does pay attention to these studies and drives policy based on these predictions. If these studies are wrong or based on guesswork, should we question to competence of the government?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

But when you start a journey to the Brave New World without a map or compass then not many will bet that you will make it excepting the Faithful of course ..

Re: Brexit discussion
 

When you've lost all faith and hope in the world you live in, a jump into the unknown is a 'nothing to lose' option for those wanting change ;)

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Actually, it's mostly right...

The BBC 3 day forecast is around 95% accurate, and the 5 day forecast is around 90% accurate.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

You don't believe the weather experts do you? If we don't want to to rain then that's our democratic right. I will wear a t-shirt and the fact it annoys the liberals only means I win.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

hows the 5 year forecast doing or the 4 year /3 year ......
what your saying is there is no idea beyond the end of the week .

Re: Brexit discussion
 

The whole economy is based on trying to accurately predict the future. The City and the Insurance industries use Actuaries whose job is to assess and manage the future risk & uncertainty.

Are you saying these people, who are I am afraid, "experts" should be ignored because the future has not happened yet? If you do, you had better buy another mattress to put your money under :)

I see no difference between people whose job it is to assess future risk that work in the City and those who work as Civil Servants. If you are saying that because they work in Whitehall they are lying then you had better start ordering those tinfoil hats right away. :)

---------- Post added at 12:42 ---------- Previous post was at 12:33 ----------

People do but countries don't

Interesting: implying a number fail in crossing the road

How can you tell? It is so foggy you can only see a few feet in front of you and you certainly cannot see the other side of the road

also known as "crossing fingers and hoping it will be ok"

When there are was definitively no plan, this is impossible

Checking best made with eyes open. Risks are clear and present

and then you wake up ..

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Where have I said I'm in awe of them? I just happen to respect the work of hard-working British economists and civil servants.
When 99% of considered predictions point to one thing, the odds are that they are right. Or as others have said, time to pop to Robert Dyas and purchase your tin hats if you feel otherwise. :D

Re: Brexit discussion
 

5Well, I guess it depends on which forecasts you are comparing. There have been many occasions I have noted where the regional forecast has said the exact opposite of the national forecast for my area. They are both issued by the Met Office!
So provide two different forecasts and compare the reality with whichever one was correct! ��

---------- Post added at 13:30 ---------- Previous post was at 13:24 ----------

You didn't say it, Andrew, but you seem to love quoting them and the economists supporting your arguments as if their forecasts prove your point.

My point is that the forecasts they make a rarely correct. This is largely down to the assumptions made, so if their assumptions are wrong, the projections will be wrong.

And let's not forget that economists and civil servants always tend to take an over-cautious stance.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Your approach is to adopt a view and hold it as matter of faith, even if analysis suggests it is likely to be flawed. Mine is to take a look at all the available evidence and then make a decision based upon that. I take no satisfaction from knowing that yet another independent piece of analysis shows that our economic growth is likely to be less than if we remained in the EU.
As Hugh and others have pointed out before, the forecasts that economists make have a high degree of accuracy and it is wrong and unfair to these hard working professionals to claim otherwise.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I disagree. All the forecasts on what would follow from the Brexit vote to date have been wrong and I have no reason to believe that the current forecasts are correct either. Forecasts about the economy have left a lot to be desired as well.

I do not rationalise things the way you suggest, not by a long chalk. My view is a considered one and I will change it if circumstances start to indicate that I may have misjudged something.

I simply cannot agree that the EU is the be all and end all of everything that some make it out to be. Trade with the EU will not be markedly different after Brexit, and we will have new trade to add to it. Plus we will no longer be forking out vast sums of money for membership of the EU.

Of course, if the Government make a balls up of the negotiations I would have to reassess, but there is no sign of that happening at present, although those with their heads in the mud cannot see any way those negotiations will ever give us what we want. They will be surprised, I believe.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

So what do we do going forward if previous forecasts haven't been 100% (though we do have the slowest growth in Europe apart from Russia since the vote) Shall we wing it, hope for the best?

Nice comparison of different forecasts from the Treasury, IMF, OECD, Economist For Brexit and National Insititute for Economic Research here by the way - https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/brexit-...d-they-perform It's a bit dated as it's from August 2017 but interesting to see the spread

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Funnily enough, that exact point was mentioned in the article I got the previous data from...:D

http://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/zg7vcwx

Re: Brexit discussion
 

"Wherever you go, no matter what the weather, always bring your own sunshine." :)