Cable Forum - Brexit discussion

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Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35950872)

It's obviously not a Brexit dividend but who cares as long as the money is coming. Looks like tax raises in the budget are a-coming though

Spot on Damien. (The only Brexit dividend is being gained is by Frankfurt, Dublin and Paris as all those financial services relocate some of their operations there.)

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35950872)

It's obviously not a Brexit dividend but who cares as long as the money is coming. Looks like tax raises in the budget are a-coming though

If the working population of the UK (currently a tad over 32 million according to June 2018 figures) all paid 10p per week into an NHS fund, it would generate almost £333 million per year.

I wouldn't miss 10p a week . . or £1 a week.

And yes, to be honest it's nothing at all to do with Brexit, it's been on the cards for a while.

Re: Brexit discussion

Director Of The Institute For Fiscal Studies: There Is No Brexit Dividend

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presente...exit-dividend/

Re: Brexit discussion

The Brexit bonus is cobblers, but at least there's a recognition by politicians, and hopefully the public, that taxes will need to rise if we want an NHS in future.

---------- Post added at 16:44 ---------- Previous post was at 16:41 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 35950871)

Absolute rubbish. More fear mongering crap from that MP who is one of the rebels trying to thwart Brexit - she will lose.

There you go again Mick, determined to have 'winners' and 'losers'.....:rolleyes:

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 35950903)

Director Of The Institute For Fiscal Studies: There Is No Brexit Dividend

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presente...exit-dividend/

Paul Johnson's attitude is clear from the following statement he made:

"What Brexit is essentially about is making trade more difficult with our nearest, biggest and richest neighbour.

"That in the end, that is the economics of Brexit. We are withdrawing from a Single Market, presumably, and withdrawing from a customs union, presumably, and that just has to make us worse off.

"How much worse off we don't know. It might be a relatively small amount. Hopefully a good deal less traumatic than the [2008] financial crisis."

So his assessment clearly assumes that we will not get the deal that Theresa May has said we will get. It is only when you assume the worst outcomes of these negotiations that you can realistically come to such a conclusion.

He 'knows' that we will be worse off, but doesn't know by how much and it might be a relatively small amount!

Not exactly the precision we should expect, I think it is fair to say!

---------- Post added at 22:01 ---------- Previous post was at 21:59 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35950879)

Spot on Damien. (The only Brexit dividend is being gained is by Frankfurt, Dublin and Paris as all those financial services relocate some of their operations there.)

TM tells us that not only will we be getting more than was stated on the side of that bus, but we will get even more and yet all you can do is criticise!

This is more money than Labour are proposing to spend on the NHS!!

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35950941)

He 'knows' that we will be worse off, but doesn't know by how much and it might be a relatively small amount!

Not exactly the precision we should expect, I think it is fair to say!

Well, sorry Old Boy but unless you're Nostradmaus, then you won't know with any certainty what deal the UK strikes with the EU. And hence you won't know by how much the UK's GDP will shrink by.

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35950944)

Well, sorry Old Boy but unless you're Nostradmaus, then you won't know with any certainty what deal the UK strikes with the EU. And hence you won't know by how much the UK's GDP will shrink by.

Or indeed, whether it will even shrink at all, which is my point.

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35950947)

Or indeed, whether it will even shrink at all, which is my point.

why you think the government denied the assessment studies saying they don't exsist then got force to put them out OB there no assessment that says we wont be worse off after brexit and it be a cliff edge if the Brextremists get there way

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35950947)

Or indeed, whether it will even shrink at all, which is my point.

Hopefully the UK's economy will still continue growing, just by less than if we had continued to be members is the point economists are making.

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35950949)

Hopefully the UK's economy will still continue growing, just by less than if we had continued to be members is the point economists are making.

Our trade with the EU might decline marginally, but this will be surpassed by our ability to get more trade from the rest of the world, and there will be no further contributions to the EU.

I have faith that the British people can pull this off. The defeatists will be proved wrong before much longer, and this ridiculous negative attitude will be quietly forgotten by those currently promoting all this doom and gloom.

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

‘No deal’ Brexit would cost UK households £1,000 a year
Whatever deal is struck with EU, costs will rise and profitability will fall, study finds
- Research models five Brexit scenarios
- Study shows will cost households £245-£961 annually
- Consumer businesses face losses unless they raise prices
- A “no deal” Brexit could cost UK households £1,000 a year, with the impact disproportionately felt by poorer households, according to new research.

The study by consultants Oliver Wyman suggests that whatever deal is struck with Brussels, UK household spending will rise and consumer businesses’ profitability will fall after Brexit.
Under a “no deal” Brexit scenario, where all imported goods from the EU were subject to World Trade Organization tariffs, the overall cost to households
would be £27bn a year, or nearly £1,000 per household...
The research modelled five of the most commonly discussed scenarios of a UK exit from the EU:
- a deal that left the UK out of the customs union but in the single market and vice versa;
- one in which the UK achieved a bespoke customs and single market deal;
- and two in which the UK left the single market and customs union but, in one alternative, applied WTO tariffs to imports and, in the other, unilaterally decided to apply zero tariffs to imports.
It found that the annual average increase to household costs under the scenarios ranged from £245 to £961 annually. It also found that, for each 5 per cent that sterling devalued against the US dollar and the euro, household costs increased by a further £380 a year.
Any subsequent free trade deals, which allowed the UK to move to zero-tariff trade with all non-EU countries, would reduce costs by £120 to £170.

https://www.ft.com/content/f03e700c-...d-d8b934ff5ffa

Quote:

A Brexit deal that results in no new tariffs with the EU is still likely to increase the red tape costs of imports, driving down profits for businesses, and driving up prices for consumers," Mr Brewer continued.
"Looking across the whole supply chain and taking into account multiple different Brexit outcomes, one thing is clear: Brexit will decrease profits for consumer businesses.
"The only question is by how much, which will depend on what deal is negotiated.
"While businesses will do all they can to absorb rising costs, we expect they will be forced to gradually put up prices for shoppers. If they don't, profits could vanish."
The Oliver Wyman analysis looks at different sectors and the possible consequences of Britain's new relationship with the EU.
It will suggest that a supermarket chain with annual takings of £10bn would see profits fall by a third under the mos benign Brexit scenario modelled.
Prices would need to rise by 2.3% to compensate and ensure the business made as much profit as it did pre-Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44511829

---------- Post added at 08:00 ---------- Previous post was at 07:53 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35950955)

You simply don't trust the hard-working British people Old Boy. You choose to disrespect the hard work of our civil servants and consultancies when they analyse how the economy will perform post-Brexit.

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35950955)

Unfortunately, we will be negotiating trade deals from a weakened position, as everyone knows we will need them - even the US has said they will use our position to their advantage.

Rule one of negotiations - don’t let people know you’re desperate for a deal.

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35950956)

You choose to disrespect the hard work of our civil servants and consultancies when they analyse how the economy will perform post-Brexit.

The trouble is Andrew, that it's all guesswork and projections based on 'what if' scenarios. I doubt anyone is 'disrespecting' the work they do, but they've been wrong a few times in the past, which doesn't help the 'man in the streets' perception of their value.

It's like using statistics to prove something, looks good on paper but doesn't reflect real life. . . .

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 35950968)

It's a bit like the weather forecast ,mostly wrong but a good talking point .

Re: Brexit discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35950970)

It's a bit like the weather forecast ,mostly wrong but a good talking point .

Damn, I wish I'd thought of that :D :D :D