Re: Post-Brexit Thread
 

Well the case has started now and technically it's nothing to do with if Parliament should be informed but that it should be the one that votes to issue Article 50. Really the main appeal of kicking it to Parliament is that Parliament could leverage that to have some input into the process so it's less of an issue now I guess.

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If anything, its speeds things up.

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Why does it belong in Parliament? The public voted on it, the public voted to leave. Therefore we should be triggering Article 50 ASAP.

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Because we are a representative Parliamentary democracy.

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Except that ...

Assuming the Supreme Court is going to rule that parliament must be involved before A50 is invoked, expect the government's lawyers to make reference to this motion during their submissions to the court this week. It is just about possible that this will be ruled to have been enough. It's certainly worth a punt for the government, and at surprisingly little cost. There's nothing in this motion that is going to compel them to reveal a detailed negotiating position.

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Yeah might have jumped the gun there..,

I don't see how it impacts he court case though. That's about an actual vote not merely informing parliament.

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Because this isn't some 2 bit trade deal being negotiated it is a fundamental change to our legislation

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The motion coming up on Wednesday won't just acknowledge that Parliament has been informed of what el gov is doing. If accepted in its current state, it will cause Parliament to resolve that the gov's proposed A50 timetable should be implemented.

The Supreme Court has a wide range of possible conclusions open to it. If its ruling is anything less than full repeal of the EC 1972 act then it is conceivable that it will accept Parliament's resolution of this Wednesday as adequate.

I'm not saying this is the most likely outcome but the government has certainly thrown something very interesting into the pot.

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I thought these were interesting reader's comments on the forthcoming negotiations worth sharing on this forum as it gives an interesting perspective.

Originally posted by The Pouca in FT.com on 6/12/2016

"The core of any Brexit deal is getting to 27 yeses - and any sensible discussion has to start from that standpoint - what can the UK seek that the other 27 EU member states will agree to? However, even in the pro-EU pages of the FT and The Guardian this is almost never discussed, it's all about the UK's wants and needs.

One thing that pretty well no one grasps is how big a deal psychologically and politically Freedom of Movement is for Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and even Germany. Memories in the UK may be short, but before the Berlin Wall fell citizens of those countries did not enjoy FoM, they were effectively trapped inside the Eastern Bloc. For them a huge aspect of freedom and of joining the EU is FoM - and the UK's objection is not helped by the xenophobia and outright racism that was displayed in the referendum campaign and afterwards, the attacks on Eastern Europeans in the street. So up front you have ten member states that regard FoM as a very big deal - and inter alia it's fair to say that the same view is taken by the Spanish, Italians, Portuguese, Greeks, Irish, etc. That is a big problem because refusing FoM means that there are already 10-15 No votes that can be counted.

Next, you have passporting. Again I think there is a failure to grasp why passporting into the Eurozone is a serious issue. Understand the UK is in an unusual position for any country - it has the untrammelled right now to sell financial products into what is in effect another economy, impacting that economy and its central banks (the ECB's) exposure, etc. The US does not allow foreign banks to do that into the US dollar zone. The UK's exceptional circumstances are as a result of being in the EU - and the 4 freedoms, including two key ones freedom to provide services and freedom of capital - but it is a historical accident - because those 4 primary freedoms were part of the original EEC and predated the Euro and the ECB. The UK has stayed out of the Euro, to a large degree carping hostilely from the sidelines. For any currency union to allow the sort of access that the UK now has would be pretty astonishing - so it is hardly surprising that many countries in the Eurozone cannot see this continuing. The especially cannot see it continuing if the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the European Court of Justice lack the authority to enforce rules on the City.

Next you have goods and to that must be added paying into the EU budget. A little history here might be useful. When Ireland entered the EU in 1973 it led to the almost immediate demise of car manufacturing in Ireland and a host of other industries as they faced competition from UK and EU manufacturers that operated on a much large scale, as well as the loss of tariffs on goods which entered the Irish market via importation into the EEC at Felixstowe or Rotterdam - while UK and EU industry gained. Those were tough years for Ireland initially - but the EEC (later EC and then EU) in effect compensated the Irish through the regional and structural funds. Ireland is now a net contributor to the EU budget, and has been for several years. Pretty well all western European countries are now new contributors, and most of that money goes east - and compensates the former eastern European countries for allowing the rest of the EU access to their markets for goods and services. Now the UK wants that access (which hurts Eastern European industry, employment and tax base) for free - or to put it another way, they want the rest of western Europe to pay the UK's club dues - while keeping the market access.

Then you have a raft of EU programs, Erasmus, Horizon 2020, Galileo, where a disproportionate share of expenditures were made in the UK and where UK scientists and institutions were allowed leading roles - again, why should this continue?

I could go on, but the point remains - few UK commentators are looking at this from the perspective of the EU 27, and when they do they are rather poisonous in their analysis, projecting venality (it's all about the money), pusillanimity and vindictiveness onto the motives of the EU 27. They also forget - all of the things I'm describing the UK voted to throw in the rubbish bin, declared valueless - all are in the gift of the EU 27, should they choose to return them. These are not things the UK gets to keep after the divorce unless the EU 27 agree, each and every one."
Source:
Subscribers https://www.ft.com/content/64ec9a92-...5d080#comments
Non-subscribers Google "This is what ‘red, white and blue’ Brexit will look like"

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We are not expecting anything for free we fully understand there will be a cost it's the amount and who gets it that is the primary concern. Clearly the commentator is pro EU and that bias shines just as it does in some of the leave rhetoric and the best thing in the upcoming negotiations is to try and get objective people on both sides though that might be a little hard. To be honest and maybe to sound xenophobic but if the EU can't get 27 approvals on the eventual deal it will be hard brexit and it will be because of the EU not the UK.

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You want to live in a dictatorship? I find it amusing that there's people banging on about how important it is for us to make our own laws in one breath and then trying to ignore them in the next :spin:

Does anyone want a detailed negotiating position revealed? The gist of it will suffice

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I think It's useful to understand what the EU27 might want and this article helps here. I hadn't appreciated the freedom of movement issue which is not about money but about the Iron Curtain. In fact, a lot of the post emphasises how the UK commentators talk about money all the time when it's not about it.

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Linky

Looks like the EU is in for a rough ride over the next few months.

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The financial meltdown predicted for a no vote result in Italy has yet to appear and Austria hasn't elected a far-right government so some of the doomsday scenarios pencilled in for this month have not arisen. What is next to come?

---------- Post added at 09:39 ---------- Previous post was at 09:32 ----------

Some Conservative backbench MPs want more detail.
Tory backbenchers demand detailed Brexit plans from Theresa May

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German and French elections. Greece hasn't gone away either.