Cable Forum - Coronavirus (OLD)

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Ooops!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...igns-breaking/

Quote:

The scientist whose advice prompted Boris Johnson to lock down Britain resigned from his Government advisory position on Tuesday night as The Telegraph can reveal he broke social distancing rules to meet his married lover.

Professor Neil Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing in order to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The woman lives with her husband and their children in another house.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36034012)

Ooops!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...igns-breaking/

So she was a "bit on the side"?

---------- Post added at 20:48 ---------- Previous post was at 20:46 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard s (Post 36034008)

A remarkable fact here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554

Not fact until reviewed. Not saying it is not possible.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36034021)

So she was a "bit on the side"?

Or he was? Perhaps he was giving her "technology lessons"? :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36034035)

Or he was? Perhaps he was giving her "technology lessons"? :D

Brings a whole new meaning to the term.:D

Heathrow Airport is to trial temperature screening technology to monitor people moving through the airport for signs of coronavirus.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...ology-11983947

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36034081)

Heathrow Airport is to trial temperature screening technology to monitor people moving through the airport for signs of coronavirus.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...ology-11983947

Good news we're moving in the right direction, albeit in a limited way, a shame we didn't have it earlier. From January to March over 18 million people entered the UK without any health checks including coronavirus hotspot countries.

Quote:

At least 20,000 people infected with coronavirus arrived in the UK before lockdown amid lack of restrictions
Tens of thousands of people infected with coronavirus entered UK as ministers accepted scientific advice it would have 'negligible' effect
These arrivals would have infected some 50,000 more people given the World Health Organisation’s assessment of an average transmission rate at the start of March of between 2 and 2.5.
Figures provided to the home affairs committee by the Home Office show that between January 1 and the end of March 18.1 million people entered the UK without any health checks including from coronavirus hotspot countries. Of these, just 273 were quarantined.
Even by conservative estimates of prevalence, this would have meant 20,000 being infected.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...d-uk-lockdown/

From another thread (where the topic was drifting) - the conversation belongs in this thread.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36034010)

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Less than the 250,000 deaths you'd cause by lifting lockdown prematurely.

How many times....?

The government's policy is to slow the deaths down so the NHS will not be overwhelmed. The only way to deal with this is to let the vaccine travel its course more slowly or lockdown until a vaccine is mass produced, distributed and applied.

Clearly, it cannot be the latter or we will no longer have an economy.

---------- Post added at 20:19 ---------- Previous post was at 20:17 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard s View Post
Now the Chancellor may reduce the furlough to 60%.

Well, that will discourage too much talk about extending the lockdown!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36034014)

You keep posting that, but never provide evidence to back up your assertion.

You also just posted in another thread

Quote:

The number of deaths overall, however, will probably be about the same

I provided the previous Imperial Colleage paper which showed the numbers of deaths could be reduced by tens of thousands (not delayed, reduced), but you have not shown any scientific evidence to uphold your claim. Here is a later IC paper (30th March)

Quote:

Table 2 shows total forecasted deaths since the beginning of the epidemic up to and including 31
March under our fitted model and under the counterfactual model, which predicts what would have happened if no interventions were implemented (and Rt = R0 i.e. the initial reproduction number estimated before interventions). Again, the assumption in these predictions is that intervention impact is the same across countries and time. The model without interventions was unable to capture recent trends in deaths in several countries, where the rate of increase had clearly slowed (Figure 3).
Trends were confirmed statistically by Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation and the widely applicable information criterion assessments – WAIC).

By comparing the deaths predicted under the model with no interventions to the deaths predicted in our intervention model, we calculated the total deaths averted up to the end of March. We find that, across 11 countries, since the beginning of the epidemic, 59,000 [21,000-120,000] deaths have been averted due to interventions. In Italy and Spain, where the epidemic is advanced, 38,000 [13,000-84,000] and 16,000 [5,400-35,000] deaths have been averted, respectively. Even in the UK, which is much earlier in its epidemic, we predict 370 [73-1,000] deaths have been averted.

These numbers give only the deaths averted that would have occurred up to 31 March. If we were to include the deaths of currently infected individuals in both models, which might happen after 31 March, then the deaths averted would be substantially higher

Averted, not delayed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36034071)

Just watch what happens when restrictions are lifted.

So, you don't have any scientific evidence/forecasts to back your assertion - thanks for confirming that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36034088)

So, you don't have any scientific evidence/forecasts to back your assertion - thanks for confirming that.

Agreed. It's irresponsible to post such misinformation on a public forum on such an important matter.

People are entitled to put their opinions, so I have to disagree with you on that point.

Others, however, are entitled to challenge those opinions...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36034088)

From another thread (where the topic was drifting) - the conversation belongs in this thread.

So, you don't have any scientific evidence/forecasts to back your assertion - thanks for confirming that.

I think, Hugh, that there have been plenty of posts querying scientific evidence, forecasts and scientific advice.

It's always good to stand back a bit and see if it makes sense before just quoting something like that and expecting everyone to believe it.

I could have been eating butter all these years instead of that foul smelling Flora had it not been for 'scientific advice'.

---------- Post added at 19:33 ---------- Previous post was at 19:32 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36034120)

People are entitled to put their opinions, so I have to disagree with you on that point.

Others, however, are entitled to challenge those opinions...

I wouldn't argue with that.

But you haven’t quoted anything - just repeatedly stated

Quote:

The number of deaths overall, however, will probably be about the same

without any attempt to back up the assertion.

You must be basing this on something, but we have no idea what...:confused:

Five weeks ago you weren’t reticent about quoting things

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36029482)

I don't buy that, spiderplant. I appreciate that we are still learning about this virus, but did you see that the results of a recent epidemiological model developed by researchers at Oxford University suggested that half the population of the UK may already have been infected by the coronavirus? That being the case, we are fast approaching herd immunity and we may well reach the peak infection rate very soon.

When all is said and done, my guess is that the most significant factor about Covid 19 will be acknowledged to be the very fast infection rate, not the mortality rate (which is still a lot less than we can expect in a year with 'normal' flu). It is the high number of deaths within so few weeks that is causing exceptional demand on health services around the world that is significant.

Public Health England have said flu causes around 17,000 deaths in the U.K. - we’ve already over 30,000 from COVID-19.

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36034081)

Heathrow Airport is to trial temperature screening technology to monitor people moving through the airport for signs of coronavirus.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...ology-11983947

They were doing that in Italy in February. I was scanned in Rome, We're slow but we catch up eventually.

---------- Post added at 21:53 ---------- Previous post was at 21:45 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36033746)

Interesting how the 100k tests was only achieved on one day,. To meet a political need and save some incompetent health minister's skin maybe?

They now appear to be ramping them down again as it's down to 75k . Germany have carried out more than 4 times as many tests, hence why they're in top of the situation and we aren't.
. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...76496-21967333

We still haven't met the 100k target since Prattcocks showpiece day. The guy is full of it I'm afraid.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36034120)

People are entitled to put their opinions, so I have to disagree with you on that point.

Others, however, are entitled to challenge those opinions...

I absolutely agree that people are entitled to their opinions. But strong assertions against credible science should be backed up. Otherwise, we are in danger of going backwards.

Cummings's bot farm is really pumping out the propaganda. I mean who is stupid enough to believe this sort of rubbish?

https://twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/statu...84202117578754

Quote:

Eight Twitter accounts, over 6 days, with an average follower count of 28. Why did they all tweet exactly the same thing?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXBIhYlW...pg&name=medium

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36034138)

Cummings's bot farm is really pumping out the propaganda.

https://fullfact.org/online/journalism-mood-bots/

Perhaps Pierre is a bot too?
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=2370