Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Replying to a post in the Brexit Development (post #2009) discussions, but posting it here to keep that thread "on topic".

So if Wee Jimmie Crankie gets 46% of the Scottish vote and a majority of the seats in the May 2021 Scottish Parliament election, will she have a "clear democratic mandate" for independence, considering that will be the main thing in their manifesto?

Asking for (non-Scottish) friend ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If the SNP run with an Independence vote in their manifesto, and they convincingly win, they have a mandate for a vote. However democracy is a moveable feast Hugh; you can be sure different 'Boris' rules apply. Just a matter of time, and Brexit has shifted the odds in favour of the nationalists.

Interestingly a Yorkshire Nationalist stood in my constituency (and got a respectable vote). I was very tempted ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The Remain/Better Together/Unionist campaign needs to start planning now for the next referendum because we have to assume it's going to happen. Nationalists will be planning now, the SNP is effectively a continuous campaign, whereas Unionists tend to have the issue down their pack of priorities only kicking into gear when the threat becomes immediate.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

There is a well established cross-party unionist campaign in Scotland. It just rarely gets any airtime south of the border.

https://www.scotlandinunion.co.uk/

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Love to know how many of the SNP's "successes" are purely down to the excess money they get from England? How much of it, is pure Scottish "grown".

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Hugh, you really do love superficial similarities a bit too much. ;)

The once-in-a-generation referendum was held in 2014 and we all participated in good faith. The outcome was ‘no’, and as the constitution remains a reserved issue we now expect the UK government to ensure the result is respected.

The Holyrood Parliament is not a sovereign institution; it legislates on devolved matters and the Scottish government exercises devolved powers. In the light of the result of the once-in-a-generation 2014 referendum, nothing in any manifesto that makes promises or assertions that go beyond Holyrood’s legislative remit need be entertained.

Of course the SNP wants another referendum - that’s why they exist, and after all they lost the last one. None of that justifies continuing referendums until the ‘right’ result comes along. The same basic principle underpins the Tory approach to Brexit as well as the matter of a second Scottish referendum.

Incidentally, it is very unlikely she would get a majority in Holyrood on 46%, though the useful idiots in the Scottish Greens abandoned their own 2016 manifesto commitment not to support another referendum without major, explicit public backing and voted for one in this parliament so it has to be assumed they would do so again.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

As widely trailed and fully expected, Boris has sent Nicoliar homeward to think again:

https://order-order.com/2020/01/14/r...endum-request/

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Too right. It's time for everyone to stick together and get through the mess of Brexit before anything else.

I also noted his dog at Sturgeon and the SNP with their focus on Independence rather than running the country properly.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Fed up with Nicola and her party, Scotland can never go it alone , Scotland is failing on schools ,hospitals housing etc and the certainly could not run Scotland on its own, We all need each other as one whole Britain, Too much hatred in the the SNP we do not want a division, We love our English friends and families and we do not want borders etc,

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I see what ypu did there :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

But “they” don’t.

The SNP’s support in last month’s election was 45%. Perhaps that number seems familiar. ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I wonder what the SNP vote would look like if they had to live within their means, ie deficit of less than 3%, rather than 8%. How would they cope with such a big drop in spending?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Nothing will happen until after the Scottish elections anyway.

Problem is with U.K. election the collapse of Labour and the usual distain for the Tory’s leaves Scotland, and Scottish socialists with little to choose from.

By all accounts ( I don’t live there so don’t know) the SNP aren’t doing a great job, and the Scottish elections would be a good opportunity to give them a bloody nose. If they do badly the issue of a referendum may dissipate.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

SNP and Green only need to lose 5 seats between them in order for the referendum majority to disappear.

That is of course unless Scottish Labour totally fails to learn any lessons from the UK party’s disastrous equivocation over Brexit and starts going lukewarm in its opposition to Scottish independence, or at least the possibility of a referendum (some in the party here are already suggesting this). It’s quite possible that after 2021 only the Tories and the Lib Dems will be explicitly against another referendum. If Scottish Labour remains neutral then, barring a massive collapse in the SNP vote, there will be an endless procession of set-piece votes in Holyrood between 2021 and 2025.