re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Europhiles love this particular sleight of hand.

It makes no odds whether it's the Brussels machine that can't keep its books or whether it's the member states. The point is, they are playing fast and loose with money donated to them by the EU's net contributor states, of which we are one.

I don't care whether the mismanagement occurs in Brussels, Prague or wherever. It's *our* money and we have a right to be concerned. Quizling LibDems have no business instructing us to shut up and take our medicine.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

It's Quisling and imo a harsh comparison

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Linky

What renegotiation? He's crawling about under the table for the crumbs that his EU masters deign to drop on the floor.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Boris has ruled out leading the leave campaign it seems:

https://www.politicshome.com/party-p...leave-campaign

---------- Post added at 11:07 ---------- Previous post was at 10:58 ----------

I guess the Liberal Democrats can take comfort in that fact that if the referendum is a leave vote there won't be many left to purge.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-35308763

They can tinker around the edges but when it comes to the meaningful stuff, such as free movement, further integration etc., the Euro movers and shakers have proved themselves to be as intransigent as they as misguided and I reckon the chance of Cameron getting any significant concessions which would actually be carried through is virtually zero. To allow the UK the concessions most of us seem to want would be to admit their strategy is flawed and these people don't do that. They'd rather drive the EU off a cliff than admit they're wrong and I expect a whole load of weasel words and sophistry to emanate from the Eurocrats in an attempt to save their faces and keep the UK's sizeable Euro-subsidy heading their way.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Yes, the chances of any meaningful concessions are zero, but the chances of the public voting to leave are also zero. This is going to be a well stage managed non-event, with the nothingness he has got 'sexed up' (wouldn't surprise me if Tony Blair is advising him). All the main parties and business will be pushing for a stay in vote. Most of the media will aswell, whatever they say at the moment. They'll toe the line and say 'better the devil you know' when it comes to it (on orders from above).

The number of frontline Tories that are going to risk ruining their careers is becoming less by the day. Chris who ? Boris has certainly seen sense about his future PM prospects, no one wants to be on the losing side.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

The actual odds according to the bookies is around 33%.

The theory is that you do want to on the losing side for this referendum though, if the losing side is Out anyway. As Scotland shows it can be beneficial to be amongst the insurgents on a losing campaign (unless it's a wipe out) and it's likely that, if lost, the Outers will look to try again and that will start by attempting to elect someone who supports leaving the EU as the next Tory leader.

Osborne is committed to the 'In' campaign and is the front-runner to be next Tory leader. Anyone else who wants it would do well looking to be the candidate of the MPs and Members who support Out.

---------- Post added at 17:09 ---------- Previous post was at 17:05 ----------

Either way this issue won't end after the referendum. If it's stay then the Out campaign will begin again and if it's Out then a In campaign is unlikely to start but then comes the question of Scotland, how we withdraw from the EU and what happens next.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

So if the vote is to leave you'll be dining on that trilby then? :D

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

As has been suggested before Cameron is going to attempt to convince us that he has extracted major concessions and that we should stay in the EU in the same way that George Osborne tried to con us that he had got the EU to reduce our contribution when in fact he had simply used the UK rebate to cut the cost.

The sad truth is that the Conservatives want to stay in the EU and are now trying to manage both the "YES" campaign and the "NO" campaign to ensure that we stay in. Indeed we now have the scaremongers telling us that leaving the EU will be a leap in the dark. We simply cannot trust the Conservatives to act in the national interest.

Another fact is that the meagre concessions that Cameron has gone for are only a fraction of what the people in the UK wanted.

Though there are trading advantages to staying in the EU which Cameron focuses on, there are considerable disadvantages which ordinary people focus on.

The disadvantages are:-

a) having no control over immigration from the EU and the benefit costs to out of work EU immigrants, not to mention the pressure put on the NHS, housing and schools. Immigrants with needed skills are important to the economy but we need to be able to control how many immigrants come in and who they are.

b) having no control over the financial aspects of the wasteful and ineffective gravy train lifestyle of politicians and civil servants working in the EU

c) being subject to EU laws which adversely affect the UK especially being unable to get rid of EU immigrants who commit crimes and other other problems arising from the EU's Human Rights Act..

d) being expected at some point to take part in financial union and possibly adopting the Euro in the future though admittedly that may be a long way off.

e) being expected to be a major contributor to the EU but being treated as the pariah of Europe and generally ignored because we seek to reform the EU's wasteful ways, though some of that can be put down to Cameron's arrogance and strategy

f) having to support countries like France who cannot secure their end of the Channel tunnel without financial aid from the UK or be expected to bolster up the Euro when the EU is in financial crisis

g) having to take in people from outside the EU because another member country of the EU has given them an EU passport.

h) the continous failure of the EU to produce accounts for at least the last 10 years and its failure to seek cheaper options to achieve the same ends

No doubt other forum members can think of reasons to leave the EU but in essence it is about the lessening ability of the UK to control what goes on within its borders and the dictatorial demands of the EU.

It will be interesting to hear what other forum members think and to see what happens between now and the EU referendum.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Well the latest Brexit poll figures appears to be heading in the 'out' direction.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph...-eu-membership

No wonder Cameron wants the vote over and done with. With things in the EU steadily getting worse, they must know that delaying the referendum will almost certainly assist the out campaign. I dare say this is focussing the minds of the Eurocrats on doing some sort of deal but I certainly wouldn't bet on them coming up with anything which would change my mind. I see that as a great shame. The EU could have been wonderful, it could have taken the best the individual nations had to offer and built on that. It could have encouraged co-operation and achieved so much more but for the obsession with ever greater regulation, monetary union, open borders and the unwavering aim of a single European state.

I reckon the referendum will happen well before the summer and that's because it will bring even more migration chaos amongst a whole load of other problems which aren't going away.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Hi Osem.
Happy New Year!
I think we are on the right side of the argument but it's whether our reasons for exit get a fair airing in the media. Cameron's taking a lot of steps to prevent a NO campaign being promoted. I think a lot of people writing to the media and social media needs to spread the message that out is best. Have a good day.
Best wishes, ntluser

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

I think the polls are a bit unstable at the moment as few of the 'swing' voters will have made a decision. That will come when the date is set and the campaigns start properly.

I still think it will be a Stay vote as I expect Cameron will come back with something and whilst it won't be anywhere enough to convince those on the Out side to switch it may well persuade enough of the swing voters to stick with the safe option - even if the changes are just cosmetic.

Additionally I don't think the Leave campaign is in great shape and there isn't much time left. There are currently three different Leave groups and two of them seem to hate each other. Crucially none of them have given a good idea of what 'Out' looks like. That'll be the killer I expect. You may be able to convince people of the flaws of the EU and the population is generally not found of the institution but if you can't paint a realistic vision of the UK outside the EU then the majority are likely to back the status-quo and the fear of the unknown will be exploited by the pro-EU side.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

One other issue that persuades me we should leave: Clegg wants to stay in :D.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

It maybe very close, But I hope we get an OUT decision. The only thing it will make the SNP want another Referendum to leave the UK. As they only need another excuse for one.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Can anyone explain to me why Scotland are apparently so pro-EU?