Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Slippers...lmfao

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

For after dinner to go with the smoking jacket, they'll have military standards to uphold.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

A small nuclear attack in Ukraine could still cause nuclear fallout on neighbouring countries, in NATO, so Putin ought to know, he orders a strike in Ukraine, he’s just attacked a NATO country, by proxy.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I suspect this has been made clear to Russia, by way of explaining why any such incident would result in a massive and direct response against them by the US.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

on this mornings news it was suggested that the USA have told putin it will destroy the black sea fleet if a nuke is used.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Do they care?

I think this conflict has shown people overestimated Russia's military capability and Putin's strategic mind but I think we also overestimated Putin's pragmatism.

We assume Putin is smart enough not to escalate this war into something that could threaten Russia itself but his actions so far have not shown someone who is thinking clearly or strategically. He could quite possibly actually be ill and not of a sound mind. Worse of all, I am not sure he'll distinguish between an existential threat to himself and that of Russia. If this war goes so badly he faces a threat to his position from the even more hawkish element of the Kremlin then he may well feel forced to act on it.

The fact that what criticism is coming out from Russia isn't about the invasion itself but the military failure also suggests that escalation rather than de-escalation is Putin's only option.

I am not arguing that we need to pull back from support for the Ukraine war, we cannot allow a precedent of nuclear threats allowing Russia to invade where they like. We have to press on regardless. I just think we're underpricing the threat here and that we need to remember however illogical an escalation might seem that oftentimes in history people are boxed into their paths by other forces.

We're set on this path because we cannot allow Russia to annex countries and threaten nuclear war to maintain that land. Putin is set on the path because domestic forces don't allow him to withdraw gracefully from this conflict.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

A good summary, Damien.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

NEW: From Kyiv Independent Defence Reporter, Illia Ponomarenko:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I don't think a lot of people understand that a "small nuclear" attack would use whats feferred as "Low yield tactical nuclear weapons. The smallest being about the equivalent of one of the bombs dropped on Japan.

Meanwhile.

Full translation: https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...58010790129665

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well this is a bit of a bummer.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...00132404625409

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Russian GRU (special forces) had their ar5ses handed to them by Ukraine at Lyman. Russia claims the loss of the city was down to local volunteers from the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic, but this rather well researched piece by the BBC’s Russian service shows otherwise:

https://www-bbc-com.translate.goog/r...en&_x_tr_hl=en

(Original report is in Russian, this link is to the Google translation)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

And it just gets wore.

Well worth reading the thread.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...32200824061952

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Historian Timothy Snyder on how the Ukraine war might end, and why a nuclear detonation is still extremely unlikely:

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-do...ign=auto_share

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

LATEST Ukraine Update: Thousands of Putin's troops 'call Ukrainian surrender hotline' - as Russian front line 'begins to collapse' - Sky News.

He’s cocked this up good and proper and it’s delicious :beer:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Definitely this. I thought until recently Putin was bad but sane, now I'm beginning to think he's bad and mad. He's beginning to make Lord Raglan (ordered charge of the Light Brigade) look like a master tactician.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I think the problem is that people/advisors are terrified of giving him factual accurate information (so he could make informed decisions), which because the facts don’t align with what he thinks should be happening, could lead to their defenestration through a handy casement…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It does seem to happen alarmingly frequently, probably best to live on the ground floor if you fall out with Putin. (Although he does have quite an extensive portfolio of other exotic assassination methods).

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It's Putin's 70th birthday today.I'm hoping he's going senile and his mates might just throw him a birthday experience

---------- Post added at 12:06 ---------- Previous post was at 12:01 ----------

https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/s...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ukraine drops the Kerch Bridge:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63183404

A significant logistical blow to the Russian army, an absolutely massive personal blow to Putin, who made so much of the bridge’s symbolism when he personally opened it in 2018.

The Road section has completely collapsed, while the rail section has been extensively damaged by fire.

---------- Post added at 10:49 ---------- Previous post was at 10:35 ----------

A video of the explosion, apparently taken from CCTV: https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status...42KksFWco8VugA

It was absolutely massive.

---------- Post added at 11:06 ---------- Previous post was at 10:49 ----------

Update, from photos it appears one side of the dual carriageway has collapsed in two places and the other side is damaged but still standing.

A fire on the rail section was fed by burning fuel from a tanker train that was passing at the time. How the Ukrainians timed that is anyone’s guess. The rail line has not collapsed but an intense fuel fire is going to have done some serious damage to the metalwork.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Next an attack towards the Black Sea via Melitopol to cut the land bridge and leave the south isolated without any resupply?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://twitter.com/ukrposhta/status...Xjx2PfdbHE2W-A

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...9&d=1665235710

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

BREAKING: Intelligence: Russia starts arresting the military in Moscow.

According to Ukraine's Defense Ministry's Intelligence Directorate, Russia’s National Guard and police have started arresting military personnel in Moscow. The traffic is blocked in downtown Moscow, according to the intelligence report, and all military units in the city are on high alert. - Kyiv Independent

Coup in progress?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

would be nice

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I certainly hope so. If Russia is to survive there needs to be someone at the helm who actually cares for his country and the people who have, I feel, been hoodwinked and brow beaten into believing his egotistical ravings. So many people dead and so much destruction just because of him.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Probably just Ukrainian psy-ops, messing with the Russians.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Russia claims the Kerch road bridge has partially reopened - only one of the two carriageways actually fell into the sea this morning so they are presumably running the other carriageway for two-way traffic.

But … they won’t allow lorries on it. These now have to travel by ferry. And when you look at photos and video from the scene you have to wonder how safe the section that was right next to the explosion really is. Just because it didn’t actually collapse doesn’t mean it isn’t structurally compromised. Opening the other carriageway for buses and cars is of no military use. It can only be a weak attempt to save face, while putting civilian lives in serious danger in the process.

They were also claiming to be planning to have the rail bridge open again tonight. Again, when you see the damage caused to metalwork on the bridge by the extreme heat of the burning fuel tanks that were sitting there, you have to wonder just how structurally sound the bridge is at that point.

I wouldn’t drive a car or a train over there for all the vodka in Crimea (although that apparently isn’t a huge amount, and they’ve started rationing it).

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Zelensky began his address tonight with this: “Today was a good and mostly sunny day on the territory of our state. The temperature was about 20 degrees and the sun shining. Unfortunately, it was cloudy in Crimea. But it was also warm…”

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

BREAKING: Russia will respond to the West's growing involvement in the Ukraine conflict although direct conflict with NATO is not in Moscow's interests, Russia's deputy foreign minister said, after U.S President Joe Biden, pledged more aid for Kyiv - Reuters News Agency.

---------- Post added at 12:23 ---------- Previous post was at 12:13 ----------

NEW: Is Russia running out of missiles?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

LATEST: NATO Secretary General, Jen Stoltenberg said earlier, Russia’s nuclear threats are irresponsible. Defence allies are closely monitoring Russian nuclear forces. Decries Putin is failing, suggesting he started this war, he must end it.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

BREAKING: Satellite images show 11 Russian strategic bombers close to Norwegian border.

Russia has moved strategic bomber planes to the Kola peninsula, 32 kilometers from the Norwegian border, according to satellite imagery obtained by Faktisk, a Norwegian fact-checking website.

The images of the Russian Olenya Air Base on the Kola Peninsula near the Norwegian border show an increased presence of long-range strategic bombers, including Tu-160 and Tu-95.

The planes have the capacity to attack targets in the U.S. and all of Europe with nuclear bombs. The planes are usually stationed at Engels Air Base, 720 kilometers southeast of Moscow, Faktisk reports. - Kyiv Independent.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

doubt they are there for that purpose. Bombers as a delivery mechanism for nuclear warhead ended in the 60's.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Nobody told the Vulcan bombers in the 70s at Waddington, Scampton, & Akrotiri that, or the Buccaneers at Honington…

Also, the current US arsenal already includes nearly 1,000 gravity nuclear bombs and air-launched cruise missiles with nuclear warheads that can be used by B52s and B2s.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I would assume it's probably sabre-rattling.

Although if they wanted to drop a nuke in the arctic as a show of force then maybe bombers minimise the risk of it going off-target?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Maybe they should have then.


Once we moved to submarine launched, and land based ICBMs they pretty much became obsolete, bombers may have been held in reserve. But considering that NATO is not a first strike organisation any deployment would be in response to an attack and the world would probably be an inferno before they got airborne let alone over a target.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

In the mid-70s and early 80s, I used to monitor/track Sov TU-95 Bears and TU-22 Backfires running simulated attacks on Europe and Continental U.S. - the consensus was these were Nuke runs, not conventional…

Also, 17 Squadron at RAF Bruggen (Phantoms, then Jaguars, then Tornados) carried Nuclear Bombs in the 70s, 80s, and 90s.

So, if the Brits, the Americans, and the Russians were all planning to use Aircraft to deliver "Buckets of Instant Sunshine/Unscheduled Sunrises" in the 70s, 80s, & 90s, I would posit your initial proposition is counterfactual…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

They still do it now, doubt they’re “nuke runs”. In the 70’s if they were nuke runs then Lightnings would have knocked them out before they got anywhere close.

Response time checks

My first reply, that you highlighted, that you are responding to was obviously pithy on my part.

What about the other bit?

If you are positing this

I very much disagree. ICBMs took over and are still now the primary delivery platform of nuclear warheads.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

"simulated" being the operative word…

They turned around before they entered our airspace - as you state, they were testing our response times.

You appear to be moving the goalposts from

to

The Nuclear Armed aircraft in the 70s, 80s, and 90s were not "obsolete"or "in reserve", they were an active part of the Nuclear Triad/Trifecta response.

The USA and Russia still plan around the Nuclear Triad/Trifecta (Land ICBMs, Sea Ballistic Missile Subs, and Air B52Hs & B2As).

https://www.defense.gov/Multimedia/E...Nuclear-Triad/

https://tass.com/defense/1378715

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Fine, if Russia launch a nuclear attack against NATO using bombers and NATO respond using bombers, I’ll concede that you’re right.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Meanwhile, all this Bierkeller chat about nuclear weapons is exactly what Russian propaganda is meant to achieve. So how about we stop doing Uncle Vova’s work for him …

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

:clap::clap::clap:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Anyway, back on topic…

https://news-sky-com.cdn.ampproject....nsify-12720522

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

So "Top Secret" it has been publicised.

---------- Post added at 12:59 ---------- Previous post was at 12:56 ----------

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...o-win-the-war/

Also

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/lat...se-11-10-2022/

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I was thinking that, it doesnt seem very "Top Secret" if everyone knows about it.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

And your point Hugh? Do you think neither Paul or I had read that?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Not sure what your point was, as it stated they were being more open to avoid escalation - the "Top Secret" was reporting hyperbole, rather than an actual classification

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

:rofl:

:rofl:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

But obviously, in your view, this exercise can’t be happening, because

:doh:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Cryptic message perhaps?

Watermelon is a symbol of the Kherson region.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

As I said in my previous post. If fixed wing aeroplanes turn out to be the preferred delivery mechanism of Armageddon, you win. I doubt it though.


We were told to move on though.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You’re probably right - they just like having multi-National exercises involving 14 countries every year testing something they never intend to use…

btw, nice switch from "Bombers as a delivery mechanism for nuclear warhead ended in the 60's." to "I'll only believe it if they are used".

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Hardly a switch, both mean the same, but your obsession with nit picking is getting tiresome.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Isreal about to start arming Ukraine?

Kyiv Independant

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

No question - they have particular know-how when it comes to bringing down Iranian missiles. They have got away with prevaricating until now but as more and more of these pound shop rockets start flying, it’s going to become morally difficult for the country best equipped to stop them to just sit on the sidelines.

Throughout this war, Russia has had a knack for taking decisions that make its position worse. Buying missiles from Iran, thereby forcing the world’s foremost expert on missile defence to start equipping Ukraine, is just the latest piece of Kremlin ineptitude.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Let's hope Ukraine gets the Iron Dome.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

That would be the ideal Andrew, we'll have to wait and see.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Paul, apologies if you believe I’m nit-picking, but the reason I am strongly rebutting the statement "Bombers as a delivery mechanism for nuclear warhead ended in the 60's" is for a number of personal experiences.

I (and many others in the RAF) were in awe of the RAF Vulcan/Buccaneer/Phantom/Jaguar aircrew who were tasked with delivering part of the U.K.’s Nuclear Deterrent, because they (and we) knew they were very unlikely to return from their missions - so when someone posts, without a shred of supporting evidence, that these peoples’ willingness to sacrifice their lives in the 70s and 80s didn’t in fact happen, it sticks in the craw.

Also, the fact that my ex-brother-in-law was a Weapons Tech on Tactical Nukes on Bucks at Honington, then on Vulcans at Akrotiri and Scampton in the 70s and 80s, and part of my job in West Berlin (with GCHQ, NSA, & The USAF) in the late 70s and early 80s was to supply information that informed briefings to enable the fighters and bombers from Bruggen, Scampton, Waddington, Honington, and Akrotiri, on how to avoid the Soviet Air Defence network to enable them to deliver their buckets of Instant Sunshine, makes me believe that my (and many others who did the same jobs) experience and knowledge in this area outweighs that of someone whose entire argument seems to consist of "no, they didn’t"…

My last words on the subject.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Hugh, although I agree with every word (I've been "in awe" with th RAF since childhood). You must agree (as a Moderator) the spat you having however justified has nothing to do with the thread.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I’m sorry if it was perceived as a spat - I believed I was trying to clarify misinformation.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I was quite happy to leave it several pages ago when asked.

https://www.rafmuseum.org.uk/blog/av...ck-buck-raids/

They stopped being primary delivery mechanism in the 60’s

As I said.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=1934

So if the RAF is spreading misinformation, take it up with them.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

How do you square

with

Oh, I see - you just added "primary", which wasn’t in your original post…

As you quoted the RAF Museum…

https://www.rafmuseum.org.uk/blog/ja...d-war-warrior/

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Badger to Biggles, Badger to Biggles release the nitpicky bomb and bring the old crate home.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You’re a very tedious person.

My first post on this particular matter in response to Reports of Russian bombers capable of carrying nuclear bombs was to dismiss this as unlikely in a one sentence reply as, as I understood it the use of bombers and in particular U.K. V - Bombers as the main U.K. nuclear deterrent ended in the ‘60’s. I didn’t go into the whole history or military record, it was a one sentence reply.

I did indeed say When first challenged by you on that statement, my very next statement was, as I had been challenged and therefore had to clarify/ expand on that one sentence. Was That:

That is a wholly accurate statement and backed up by the RAF articles.

The RAF museum states many times times in the 4no. Articles

It is clear to anyone and everyone, but you, on this forum what my point was.

And you’re just coming across as childish at this point.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Thank you Paul.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Should we be concerned about this: https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/st...88769369010176

There is a lot going on at the moment and maybe Wallace wants to be PM and therefore out of the country if movement starts happening this week.

But it's pretty concerning that he needs to rush to Washington for 'face to face' talks. Liz Truss wasn't able to answer the questions yesterday which was likely just avoidance but what if something serious is happening in Ukraine? Have the US/UK detected Russia moving nuclear weapons?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

More likely they’re talking about supplying Ukraine with longer-range weapons, like the US Army’s much-discussed ATACMS or our own equivalents.

Russia is going after Ukraine’s national infrastructure big time at the moment, and while it is running low on missile stocks they could do a lot of damage with what’s left. They won’t force Ukraine to capitulate but they could precipitate a major humanitarian crisis if the country goes through the winter with minimal ability to generate and transmit electricity. Russia needs fear no reprisals at present because Ukraine lacks the ability to conduct deep strikes of its own.

Nato has resisted calls to give Ukraine these weapons up to now because of the escalation risk. But it is becoming clear that Russia needs to be forced to think twice. Arming Ukraine with long range tactical missile systems is escalatory but the human cost of doing nothing is getting higher by the day.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ukraine has been begging fo advanced air defence systems since day 1 back in February (patriots etc), Gen 4 aircraft as well as ATACMS. Its about time they were supplied with them.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

:clap::clap::clap:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

NEW: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, was hastily requested to join his Pentagon Counterparts in Washington DC earlier today, with grim claims by Harry Cole from The Sun, that Vladimir Putin will launch a Nuclear warhead above the Black Sea.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The Black Sea fleet will be out of range of Ukraine for a while then.

Meanwhile:

Only in Russia.

:D:D:D

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

BREAKING: Russian media is pushing the conspiracy that Ukraine is launching a nuclear false flag explosion in Mykolaiv sparking fears that Russia is about to imminently detonate a nuclear warhead in Ukraine. - Samuel Ramani, Foreign Policy.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Another good speach from Zlensky, I'm doubtful the Russians will blow the dam though due to the effect on Crimea.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

NEW: LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - A senior Russian foreign ministry official said that commercial satellites from the United States and its allies could become legitimate targets for Russia if they were involved in the war in Ukraine.

Russia, which in 1957 launched Sputnik 1, the first manmade satellite, into space and in 1961 put the first man in outer space, has a significant offensive space capability - as do the United States and China. In 2021, Russia launched an anti-satellite missile to destroy one of its own satellites. - Reuters.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

BREAKING: Ukraine confirms that it has increased its military presence near Belarus's borders - Samuel Ramani, Foreign Policy

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Friends back "home" are talking about stop supporting Ukraine with military help , if the republicans win mid-term elections. It's costing to much , let eu sort it out ! Fed up with arguing with them . Really think thing could change if Joe loses which is likely.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

In the eyes of many in the US, Ukraine is not a strategic partner of the US, they’re not in NATO and they couldn’t really care if Putin governs it or not, they just don’t see why they should be financing the Ukrainian defence.

They’ve got a point.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

They don’t have a point, they have a fundamental misreading of the strategic situation in Eastern Europe.

Putin has a messianic belief that it’s destiny to restore the Russian sphere of influence beyond its borders. If he wins in Ukraine - especially now, after months of explicit Nato opposition - he will be emboldened. If there is any perceived wobble in support from the USA that puts NATO’s entire eastern frontier at risk, and it puts the sovereign nation states bordering Russia to its south and southwest in mortal peril.

If Republicans want a stable, rules based world in which their economy can flourish and people can buy American goods and services, they had better take their heads from up their asses and ensure they continue to back Ukraine.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The major problem with this conflict as I understand, it is that there is no longer a willingness for a negotiated settlement. There was at the very beginning but now only victory for Ukraine and retaking of all Russian gains is acceptable. I assume excluding Crimea. Any talk of negotiation gets you branded a Putin apologist.

The issue being that Putin to lose is unacceptable to him.

So we have the issue of the irresistible force meets the immovable object, only the irresistible force has nukes.

Putin will not back down, and he will continue to destroy Ukraines power infrastructure as Winter approaches.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

If you regained control of parts of your territory, and discovered mass graves and credible evidence of torture, rape and mass kidnap of children, what incentive would you have to negotiate a settlement that leaves any of your citizens under Russian control?

If you had accepted a prior ‘peace’ agreement that left parts of your territory under Russian control only to see Russia use that territory 8 years later as a marshalling ground for further invasion, what incentive would you have to negotiate a settlement that leaves Russia controlling territory significantly closer to your capital city?

The so-called pragmatic approach is well meaning, but it misreads Putin’s intentions. It assumes he sees the world and plans much as we do. He does not. If this war ends with him controlling an inch more than he did at the start of this year, he will spend the next 5 or 10 years regrouping and then he will try again.

He has to be stopped, as surely as Hitler had to be stopped. Obviously that’s not going to look like Germany 1945; Putin has a nuclear arsenal. But he must be pushed out of Ukraine in its entirety, and yes, that does include Crimea, because at present Crimea has not been formally ceded by Ukraine nor recognised internationally as Russian. Even an outcome that achieves nothing more than the formalisation of Russian possession of Crimea would be spinnable in Moscow, shore up Putin’s reputation and set the scene for the next invasion.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

How do you see that happening? Without Armageddon, and without NATO boots on the ground?

Ukraine is putting up a fantastic effort, but it’s unlikely they can take back everything Russia has taken in this offensive, let alone Crimea.

That would take foreign troops, or planes. It would need foreign direct action of some sort, which would end up in a potential nuclear exchange, that no one will risk.

The west is pumping billions into Ukraine, but Russia isn’t skint (thanks to Germany) and buying weapons from Iran and China.

I take everything on board about the war crimes but this conflict does not end with total victory for Ukraine or total victory for Russia.

In 1942, when Hitler was expecting a negotiated settlement, the allies could reject that for total surrender, Ukraine doesn’t have that luxury.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Notably, you snipped out the first half of my post - the crucial part that explains why Ukraine will not - cannot - cede anything to Russia. And who, exactly, has the moral authority to tell them they cannot attempt to rescue citizens who are presently subject to the utter brutality of a genocidal occupying army?

Ukraine does not have the luxury of a negotiated settlement, because they know that a negotiation now merely delays the next war, it does not stop it. Western support is predicated on an understanding in Nato and other capitals of this very point, and while Western leaders prefer not to talk about Crimea directly, I think it’s fairly clear from listening to the comments made over many weeks that they understand Crimea will come into play sooner or later.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I snipped to get to what I thought the central point of the post, but I did refer back to your point of war crimes in your post.

Understood, but I don’t think it moves the discussion on.

If a negotiated settlement is categorically off the table, and always will be.

And if it is acknowledged that Ukraine by itself cannot retake Russian gains including Crimea

And if it is further acknowledged that only a total win for Ukraine, regaining all lost territory pre-2010 is acceptable, although also acknowledged Ukraine by itself is incapable of achieving this goal.

And if it is acknowledged that for Russia, keeping what they have gained is an absolute minimum acceptable result.

And it is also acknowledged that direct assistance of Ukraine by foreign ( probably NATO)
Powers would result in, or endanger the globe, to nuclear Armageddon and would therefore be avoided.

And it is also acknowledged that Russia is capable of holding this out For as long as they want.

If there is no negotiation, how do you see it being resolved?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The argument against military support for Ukraine has since day one been predicated on some or all of the premises you have outlined.

Military support began flowing when it became clear Ukraine could avoid being overwhelmed. Military support ramped up when it became clear Ukraine might even be able to push Russia back, with the appropriate tools (HIMARS and similar long range precision munitions).

The Russian army has been broken on a Ukrainian anvil - Putin has made ever more bloodthirsty threats aimed at choking off Western support because that support has turned the tide in Ukraine’s favour.

It is notable that today Putin has begun explicitly rowing back on his leaden hints about using a nuclear weapon. The threats did not cause Western disengagement and in fact have most likely resulted in direct threats to Russia from China and India. That’s what the new narrative about a dirty bomb is all about - it’s nuclear blackmail 2.0. It, too, will not work.

The Russian army is broken, its precision weapon stocks are depleted and the national economy is on a precipice. The country relies on Western electronics to build its missiles and it is hard-to-impossible to source those components now. And there are signs amongst the Russian elite that the question of who comes after Putin is now a valid (albeit hushed) conversation point.

How does it end?

It ends with Russia expelled entirely from Ukraine, Putin taking the fall, to be replaced with someone willing to row back on his insane invasion, then a very long, very slow process of normalisation of Russian relations with the rest of the world. Based on my reading, Russia’s complete defeat in Ukraine may occur before this time next year. It is likely by the end of this year that they will control little more than they did at the beginning.

That is not the over-confident prediction you perhaps think it is - it simply gives due weight to what has actually happened so far this year (including the complete failure of all the received wisdom that confidently predicted Ukraine would be a Russian vassal by now).

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I hope so, I think winter will be decisive. If the Russian offensive is indeed beaten back and is a shadow of itself come February, you could be right. Personally I don’t think Crimea is on the table, it’s just too important strategically.

But if it isn’t over by this time next year, as you hope, all the questions in my post will remain a year on.

I think it’s hope for what you suggest, but any plan beyond that is very fluid.

Pleasure as always having the discussion with you.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Crimea is dependent upon a water supply from the mainland so Ukraine holds the upper hand here. Provided the US doesn't fall prey to more extreme elements in the Democrat and Republican parties, Ukraine should be ok. But I agree mainland Europe especially Germany should step up more.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Interesting thread here on whether corruption was implicated in Russia's failure to detect the truck that exploded on the Kerch Bridge.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...45621504172033

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Until reading that I wasnt even aware it was a truck bomb.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It was the mother of all truck bombs. Absolutely massive.

Watch the pale grey truck, background centre right. Blast occurs only 5 seconds in so don’t blink:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Pierre, if you think peace can be made between Ukraine and Russia I strongly suggest you read this report based on interviews with 3 Directors of other 3 Baltic states State Securuty Services. Admittedly it is a long read but explains why this "Special Operarion" is not just Putin's war but is also an very good insight to the Russian psyic. It also explains why there is no other option for Ukraine but to defeat the Russian agression.

https://ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/1...ussian-cruelty

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

NEW: DEFCON warning system has raised its alert level to level 3 from 4, condition Yellow.

https://defconwarningsystem.com/2022...date-10-26-22/

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The observations in that article are, I’m sure, accurate and I’ve heard similar observations and I totally accept the brutality of Russian atrocities and in no way have tried to brush over that.

My point, if you read the full exchange between myself and Chris, is that I don’t think a total win for Ukraine is achievable, not without foreign troops on the ground. That won’t happen. So how do you end this war?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

What's a 'total win'? I think it's possible Ukraine will get back the land lost this year. At that point then either something gives or, maybe, it becomes a frozen conflict with Russia still claiming that land but Ukraine and the international community operating as it being Ukrainian.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

As I say, read the exchange between myself and Chris. A “total win” for Ukraine is pre- 2014 borders. i.e. Crimea.

I don’t think Ukraine, on their own, can take back all the territory taken by Russia in this offensive, let alone Crimea.

So, I say again, if only repelling Russia from all of Ukraine is acceptable. I.e. no negotiation at all, total removal of Russia only.

And Ukraine are incapable of achieving that, what happens?

Just keep the destruction and death, ticking over.

Your suggestion of a “frozen conflict” is not a cessation of war. Unless you mean an agreement is reached, or at least acknowledged, which is what I have suggested. A negotiated peace.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

At this point I’d like to challenge the idea that Ukraine needs foreign troops in theatre if it’s to push Russia entirely from its territory - why do you think this? Is it that Ukraine has too few, or that they’re too poorly trained, or something else? I’ll say from the outset I don’t agree that lack of manpower is Ukraine’s first or even second challenge; it may not even be its third. What it needs is ammunition, and advanced delivery systems that can hit Russia wherever it needs to be hit in order to degrade its ability to continue its war. It also needs financial support to keep its economy going and adequate defences to keep its national infrastructure intact.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It is, of course, entirely possible that we have forces on the ground in Ukraine ;)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I have read every exchange between you and Chris and can only assumes, due to your comment, you didn't read the full article it doesn't just refer to Russian brutality. I understand as it is a long read but well worth it.

"The West" has never understood the Russian mentality and that is the crux of the problem. You cannot negotiate with them. They take that as a sign of weakness.

Ukraine can win and are doing so at the moment, Russia is on the defencive and pouring untrained cannon fodder into the war. Russia cannot supply the troops with the supplies they need,food, water etc, ammunition depots, command posts and distrobution centres are regularly being taken out by the introduction of HIMARS.

Now look at Ukraine. They have stopped conscription, they believe they have enough troops to defeat Russia.There were no similar complaints about conscription, were suitably trained (many in the UK and elsewhere) before getting anywhere near the front. They are fighting against the geneside of their nation. They will not stop, nor do I blame them. Russia wants to wipe them out of existence.

Ukraine will win and when it does Russia will leave it alone and (in a few years) go on and try with another Baltic state. At least until they stand up to them.

Russia only responds to force. Show you have it and use it they will back down. That is how Ukraine will get Crimea back.

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By "forces on the ground" what do you mean. It has never been denied that before the invasion our SF's and others NATO forces were there from 2014 training the Ukrainian army. We are still doing so but here in the UK.

There may well be military advisors still "in Country" but doubt boots on the ground troops.

I know of one UK military specialist who trained Ukrainian military in all infrantrary weopons they would likely meet and have to use but in Germany. He never went to Ukraine. Basically he trains the trainers just as he does with UK and NATO armies.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I’m no expert, far from it, though I have studied both WW, WWII in particular and it comes down to money, it always does.

As you point out the West has to have appetite to fund his war and future defence. Russia is also not a basket case economy wise and will also have plenty of money to spend on equipment.

It will depend on which side can get re-equipped most effectively and efficiently to continue the fight. I don’t know who that is.

If Ukraine can mount a major offensive and sustain it, then I’ll think differently but I don’t see either moving very much.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I think you’ve answered your own question to an extent. If your assumptions hold true the war ends when it no longer meets US strategic objectives and they pull the funding for it. A negotiated settlement would quickly be found.