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However, the counter argument I guess is that the backstop will become permanent if the 'unless and until' clauses are not met. This would suggest a lack of good faith which goes against Article 5 of WA, hence the need for an arbitration panel |
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Any negotiations on the "future relationship" can only start until after the WA comes in to force, IE we have left the EU. In theory, the UK might sign up to the backstop at that point, but it can't be required to do so before then, and certainly not as a condition of the WA. |
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:bump: Just bumping this up the list. I’ve a feeling we’ll be needing it very soon. ;)
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I should imagine our resident remainers will be very vocal. :)
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I’m looking forward to the upcoming fisheries spat.
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I'll never agree with it, and I'll always believe it was the wrong thing to do. Personally I hope we will rejoin ASAP. However ,Boris had better not cock this up, and whilst i don't like the man he's so far achieved what he set out to do (and achieved it very well it must be said) the next stage of the process is even more critical, get it wrong and the tories i suspect will be out of power for a considerable time (of course that requires Labour or the Lib Dems to be able to field a decent leader) |
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There isn't much to be vocal about really is there? The argument is settled now. The Government has a mandate and the majority to pass the agreement.
I think there are positives here. The size of the majority means Johnson will not be in hock to the whims of the ERG. This will hopefully give him more room to negotiate the next stage of Brexit and make concessions which was what caused issues for May and Johnson during the Article 50 talks. Most importantly this is hopefully now a period of calm and boredom in British politics. A less fractious time, although I worry the U.K will break up soon. |
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Good take on Twitter;
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We can only hope that Remain dissenters in the Conservative Party don't scupper Boris' plans for Brexit.
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Let's get it done. |
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However they've made their choice, move on. . |
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---------- Post added at 17:18 ---------- Previous post was at 17:13 ---------- Despite all the profits of doom, the pound and shares have soared due to the election result. |
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Trade deals take time, no one can guarantee it for a particular date. |
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The "deal" on offer is only meant to be a transitional one. Negotiations on that couldn't start until Article 50 was triggered, and that couldn't happen until after the referendum. Any future ongoing deal can only start to be negotiated once we've left the EU, ie start of hard Brexit or start of WA.
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It’s not an assumption, but since we have stated to the other side in the negotiations that it must be completed by a certain arbitrary date, it gives them leverage - no one willingly enters into a bad deal, but if the deal is less favourable than what we have now, it’s a bad deal. I want a good deal, as that’s what’s best for our country, |
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We already meet all the standards and specifications required for trading with the EU, so 12 months is certainly do-able and I see no reason why we should not get an acceptable outcome. We need to get a lot more positive about this and stop keep assuming the worst. |
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'No Deal' is more if a threat for the EU to use against us than the other way round. However it would damage both which is why it won't happen. |
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Got any figures for Imports from the EU and how those will have an effect if they won't deal? |
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It's weird that it has been Ireland putting the biggest stumbling blocks in the way of the WA, but they will lose massively if there are restrictions. They currently benefit from having a common language with the UK.
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Ireland has been playing the EU’s strategy of obstructionism in the hope of something changing in British politics to either stop Brexit or soften it to Norway+ or similar.
I think we will see things move surprisingly fast now. |
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A better way of looking at it is to quote the obvious figures. I don't have the up to date statistics to hand but in 2017, the EU exported £67bn more to us in goods and services than we did to them. Now that is why the EU will benefit from a deal, so it is not all one way against us as you and your fellow pushy remainers like to portray. I think we all recognise Project Fear when we see it. ---------- Post added at 13:06 ---------- Previous post was at 13:05 ---------- Quote:
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But I were a retailer, losing access to 44% of my customers will have a much greater effect on me than the larger retailer next to me losing access to 8% of their customer base, surely.
Whilst the monetary amounts may be similar, the impact on the smaller retailer will be greater - or am I missing something? Recent trading figures here - https://researchbriefings.parliament...mmary/CBP-7851 |
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If you think a country with under a seventh of the EU's GDP (the UK) will have the same negotiating power with China and the USA, never mind the smaller countries, you are being, I believe, optimistic. The EU currently has 41 trade agreements covering 72 countries - the UK currently participates in those agreements, and the UK is seeking continuity for its existing EU trade agreements with a number of countries after Brexit (but this isn't guaranteed) - trade with them made up about 11% of UK trade in goods and services in 2018, so add that to the 45% (latest figures) of our exports to the EU, 55% of our exports are at risk (of having as good a deal as we have now). |
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But the thing you are missing is that trade with the EU will continue. Whether or not we get a trade deal, this will continue to be the case. I think you are severely misunderstanding how much additional trade awaits us outside the confines of the EU. The noises from President Trump alone are very encouraging. And incidentally, if you have such an issue with chlorinated chicken, you don't have to buy it. There is no compulsion here, it is a choice. |
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What choice is there when you open up your market to products produced so cheaply in such awful conitions that the only way to make them consumable is to dip them in a bucket of chlorine, so many farmers have gone out of business in Australia iirc that they're actually considering withdrawing from their US trade agreement and look what happened when Japan tried to set up something like nice for their drug procurement, America threatened to pull out of their agreement and if you think trump is encouraging us it's not for our benefit, this is a man who has said repeatedly that the only good deal is one where he wins and everyone else loses |
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It’ll be quicker than usual if we agree to the "level playing field", which BJ has said we won’t.
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Your dismissal of the US as a potential trading partner is quite extraordinary, so pardon me if you really didn't intend to give me the standard 'chlorinated chicken' retort that is so beloved of Mr K. I don't suppose it has occurred to you that we can specify standards for raising birds if they are to be exported to the UK, just as we can for the purchase of clothes from India. If we apply those same standards uniformly, the US will not suffer a disadvantage and the chickens would benefit. You keep obsessing with the relative size of our country compared with those we are trading with, ignoring two important facts. 1. Those countries want to export to us. 2. We are not going to accept anything other than trade deals that are acceptable to the UK. Fortunately, we are now in the hands of a healthy Conservative Government that actually knows what it's doing in this area. |
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I didn’t dismiss the idea of the US as a trading partner, just pointed out the obvious that they will be in a stronger negotiating position - you seem to regard this statement as negative, whilst I view it as realistic.
You also seem to think it’s a one way street, and that we have all the negotiating strengths with other countries- I hope you’re right, but I doubt it; they’re not going to accept anything other than trade deals which benefit them. Still waiting for you to tell exactly what goods and services we are going to export to the USA, China, and India that will make up for 44% of our exports to the EU (around £350 billion)... |
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EU-Vietnam trade deal ---------- Post added at 17:58 ---------- Previous post was at 17:57 ---------- Quote:
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Obviously, the more powerful the country, the more clout they have, but we are one of the world's largest economies, a fact you dismiss as though it had no importance. You also imply that the UK would accept a trade deal that would be bad for us. Why would we do that? I knew you were a pessimist, Hugh, but now I'm beginning to worry about you! ---------- Post added at 19:05 ---------- Previous post was at 19:02 ---------- Quote:
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Equality of employment laws, etc, should not apply to us once we are out of the prison that is the EU. |
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So many EU regulations are finely wrought compromises that try to account for various sectoral interests in different member states. The rules are pitched as “harmonisation” but all too often what that really means is that a powerful interest in one country is being undercut by a smaller, nimbler business somewhere else. Lo and behold, along comes the EU with regulations that “harmonise” the market in the direction of standards big businesses have the resources to meet, but erode the competitiveness of smaller ones. GDPR is a classic recent case in point. The administrative burden even on small charities is absurd. What it’s doing to small businesses that don’t have their own compliance departments and in-house lawyers I can only guess. The attempt to ban olive oil at table in non-factory sealed bottles is another, that threatened to put a host of small producers out of business. Thankfully the EU did a rare u-turn in that instance, but the loud squeals from the trade association for producers who sell their olive oil only in factory-sealed bottles tells you all you need to know about how far this really had anything to do with consumer protection. |
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Got some bad news about GPDR, it probably isn't going away - http://data.parliament.uk/DepositedP...nical_Note.pdf
GPDR is a pain but it is all about protecting our personal data. It's actually a huge benefit for multinational companies as there was a hodgepodge of different regulations across Europe before which made offshoring data a real pain. For example, my companies HR data was backed up in the US apart from data from Belgium and Germany. GPDR and the 'Adequacy framework' in GPDR let all data be centralised. I understand that there is a burden for small business. However, how do you decide what small businesses, if any should GPDR apply to? Should it apply to a plumber with three employees? Maybe not. Should it apply to a lawyer writing wills as a sole trader? Probably yes. |
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So Ireland is getting half a billion of funding to link to the French energy network by passing Britain, weren't we told this was project fear and would never happen, be intetesting to see what else comes to pass...
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Countries like Norway that do wish for a close deal with the EU, do. |
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As I stated previously, we are 1/7th of the GDP of the EU, around 1/6th of the USA, and 1/8th of China - recently, China and the USA have not been shy to use tariffs to show their trading power, so why do we think we would be exempt from this? |
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Paging wonderful Goon type show
Grytpype: Well, Admiral Fred, the garrison at Burami Oasis is under constant siege. Seagoon: Aohoo? Grytpype: Now there’s only one way to deal with these turban devils of bran, we’re... Wait a minute, wait for it... [suddenly over-dramatic] We're going to send a GUNBOAT! FX: [Thunderous cheers, leading into "Land of Hope and Glory"] |
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Why could they not simply set out the standards required rather than have each company write out specifically how they were going to comply with it? Instead of having everything set out clearly in the legislation, every company has had to replicate the same process. Do they think organisations have nothing better to do? Hopefully, the UK will draft a law which is better understood and does not require so much bureaucracy once we leave the EU. We can surely achieve the objectives of the GDPR without taking the EU sledgehammer to crack the data protection nut. |
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Brexit means no longer being run by unelected bureaucrats.
Meanwhile, Downing Street says Nicky Morgan has been made a life peer and will keep her role as Culture Secretary. |
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But you knew that... |
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Appointed by the British PM; Accountable in the British parliament via the Lords chamber and Commons select committee; Accountable in the British cabinet; Lose their job if the PM’s party is voted out by the British electorate. Apparent similarity to EU officials is tangential at best. But you knew that. |
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But on the second chamber and how it is appointed. I don’t the Lords, I understand the argument on how it isn’t beholden to the electorate and therefore has some immunity to the ebb and flow of public opinion and can therefore carry out it’s checks and balances with impunity. But I dislike how it is basically a retirement and pension plan for already well heeled MPs and business men. I think you should be called to do it, for 1 term, like jury duty. not all of them but a large proportion, I know that would impact people working, but it’s not a full time job, you could do a few days a month. Some Lords never ever darken the chamber. |
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Their Lordship's aren't paid (directly) either. And being safe from "dismissal" means that they can be "unpopular" and do the job properly and see it through even when governments change.
I guess that once upon a time a peer who really went against the rule of law would be "retired" permanently. Now that would be an incentive to behave :P |
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Looks like the lies have started to unravel already, and nobody is surprised... |
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2) It is a little thing called democracy when a government is able to change or pass laws. 3) As pointed out in (1), nothing needs adding or is there to be added in the first place. 4) "Could" DOES NOT mean "Will". |
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You appear to be hankering after the “protection” of a supra-national organisation that has the power to prevent a democratically elected government from pursuing policies the British electorate voted for. This is one of the reasons many people voted to leave the EU. But even after having their arses handed to them last week, it seems many remainers still simply don’t get it. Here’s the rub: from now on, if you want policies implemented in the UK, then you need to make and win a democratic case in the UK. You can no longer rely on the inertia of a pretend superstate, and the votes of foreign politicians, to do it for you. |
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How is your nice new SNP MP btw? ;) |
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The EU case against the UK for not appointing a Commissioner has gone quiet? Anyone heard anything? Google not much help.
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Presumably this would also scupper moves in Brussels regarding the non-appointment of an EU comissioner for the UK. :scratch: |
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A referendum lacking legitimacy or legal authority is the easiest to fight - you just refuse to take part. Let it be seen for the farce that it is. Then afterwards, while I don’t imagine the British legal system would go after SNP ministers for treason as the Spanish did in Catalonia, I do wonder whether there might be a case to answer regarding misuse of public funds. |
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Well this is in the WA so I assume it becomes active once given royal ascent.
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As of Feb 1st 2020, we will not be a member of the EU. It would be a bit pointless the EU complaining about not having a commissioner from the UK for such a short period of time.
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