Re: Brexit
 

You may get one in the very near future but definitely by 2022.

Re: Brexit
 

Ha ha. I think we have all read some other myths too:
"They need us more than we need them."
"The Irish border problem is a myth dreamt up by remainers"
"The motorway works on the M26/official government documents are just Project Fear"
"We're going to replicate the 40 EU free trade agreements that exist before we leave the European Union so we've got no disruption of trade"

Re: Brexit
 

No deal Brexit 'more likely than ever before' says European Council president Donald Tusk

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a3962561.html

Re: Brexit
 

In the context of Brexit, what would an incredible deal constitute?

Re: Brexit
 

I saw an interesting graphic from the FT showing 759 international agreements globally between the EU and third countries. Mindblowing.

Pasting the links from Google which hopefully should work;

https://www.ft.com/content/f1435a8e-...4-9023f8c0fd2e
https://ig.ft.com/brexit-treaty-database

Re: Brexit
 

As in most situations - lock the politicians up somewhere to argue out the details and let the rest of us then carry on in a nice sensible manner.

We all "know" how it should work but most politicians want to ensure their "perks" and lifestyles will remain nice and feathered.

Re: Brexit
 

I can only surmise, but I think both sides are hyping it up and that there is a way through this that will satisfy the EU, the DUP and the Brexiteers. If the deal clarifies that we will still be able to trade with the EU without tariffs with the Irish border issue agreed, I can see no reason why the Labour ranks won't be split either.

Obviously, we will have to wait and see, but I suspect that a lot of this is just for show.

If there is not clarity on ending the Customs Union, however, I cannot see how that would get through, because it would mean no new trade deals and an end to the advantage that Brexit would give us.

---------- Post added at 12:33 ---------- Previous post was at 12:32 ----------

If it was played right and with goodwill on both sides, it would be.

---------- Post added at 12:39 ---------- Previous post was at 12:33 ----------

1. A 'no tariff' deal between the UK and the EU.

2. An agreement on ending the customs union while putting in place measures to resolve the NI issue without alienating the DUP.

Over 80% of everything is already agreed by negotiators on both sides - these are the remaining issues, which right minded people should be capable of resolving.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Well, the to-ing and fro-ing of negotiators and civil servants between here and Brussells should have racked up lots of expense claims. A bit more haggling might ramp them up a bit more!

Nah, that's just cynical:erm:

---------- Post added at 12:44 ---------- Previous post was at 12:43 ----------

It ain't over until the fat lady sings.

Having a spot of bother finding the fat lady at the mo....

Re: Brexit
 

As this quote puts it: -

“We put all our politicians in prison as soon as they’re elected. Don’t you?” “Why?” “It saves time.”
― Terry Pratchett, The Last Continent

Re: Brexit
 

I do find it disconcerting that the DUP, a small number of Presbyterian Creationists can effectively decide the future prosperity of the UK.

Of course, the irony here is that a Hard No-Deal Brexit that the DUP, in league with the ERG, is steering us towards could ultimately deliver their demise. The combination of a hard border with the inevitable disproportionate impact on the UK provinces of a Hard Brexit will inexorably lead to a vote on Irish reunification that the Good Friday agreement enshrines if certain conditions are met.

Sinn Féin are playing the long game here. They want a Hard brexit as it is their best road to a United Ireland.

Re: Brexit
 

More suggestions from the EU to help the UK achieve Brexit.
https://www.ft.com/content/6582b8ce-...2-7574db66bcd5

---------- Post added at 22:31 ---------- Previous post was at 22:22 ----------

Seems to me 1 is a given, the DUP will have to bend on 2. As they have just 6 MPs in a country that voted strongly in favour of remain, they need to show some flexibility.

Re: Brexit
 

and leavers still say EU have done nothing to help Theresa May at all

Re: Brexit
 

Certainly done a lot more to help her than turncoat Davis and back-stabber BoJo, that's for sure.

Re: Brexit
 

exactly :clap::clap::clap:

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

they insisting on a backstop because no brexiteer has come up with a workable solution to keeping a open border as all parties want no border but one way to guarantee a hard border is a no deal Brexit as WTO rules insist they be one

and you do know the PM signed up to a backstop last December right

Re: Brexit
 

I am a little confused by this... Let me see if I have this straight;

• We leave in March 2019
• The EU offered a transition until the end of 2020 which is when the new budget cycle starts
• Theresa May states that she expects a trade deal to be in place by December 2021
• Barnier suggests to EU 27 a year extension to the transition, taking us to December 2021 (see FT link posted up there ^^^)

Didn't we just get what we wanted there?

I can see why an open ended transition is toxic politically but I think there is a need to show that any proposed solution to the Northern Ireland/Republic problem has a firm timeline.

Re: Brexit
 

Little hope or expectation for a Brexit breakthrough as Theresa May heads to Brussels

https://news.sky.com/story/little-ho...ssels-11527719

Re: Brexit
 

It's not up to a Brexiteer to come up with workable solution - however, you keep posting such nonsense because, for your information, a few leading Brexiteers have come up with easy and workable solutions. It's yet again, hard faced Remainers trying to weaponise the Northern Ireland border issue, to thwart or stop Brexit.

Desperate, desperate and very pathetic. :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit
 

you mean with technology that does not exist aye easy solution NOT if they was a easy solution we have a deal and probably would left by now

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Well they said it wouldn't be a problem so given the tight deadline it would be nice if they told us what they had in mind.

Re: Brexit
 

It's simple really either Europe allows a trade deal or it doesn't. Having a trade deal benefits all sides. Europe will be damaged just as much as the UK it's not like we are a new country that has just joined the EU we have been a member for a long time and have deep routes with Europe.

Europe in this case could and can make exceptions rather than holding every country to ransom that is a member state. I can see the only way forward now is a no deal and do talks after we have left as all the EU will do is stretch out talks so that they will get another 8 Billion pound payment from us before we leave and then demand another 50B divorce settlement.

It's about time May started getting some balls and basically say to Europe this is what we want there is no negotiating on it take or leave it.

If they want to stand hard and fast they stuff them.

Re: Brexit
 

Time to say to the EU, either you want a deal or you don't. As apparently they don't want a deal, withdraw from any negotiations until they came back with a serious and sensible proposal.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Who is "they"?

I am Brexiteer who exercised my democratic right to vote to leave the EU - that is where my responsibility ended.

I am not in Government to enact the result or carry out the choice that was decided.

Re: Brexit
 

Not you. The politicians who advocated leaving and had responsibility for the Vote Leave platform.

Re: Brexit
 

They were not all in position to enact the result either.

I have said this repeatedly - Vote Leave was a campaign to leave the EU - it ceased to be that campaign on 24th June 2016, it was not down to them to enact the result, that is the government and at the time, that was David Cameron's.

Re: Brexit
 

utter nonsense of course they want a deal they have always said a no deal is worse outcome for both it the Ireland border that hardest issue to deal with as no one has come up with a workable solution

yes the EU will lose a bit in a no deal but it UK that will fall of cliff edge and be and be only country in world with 0 trade deals and the pound will plummet much worse than it did when result to leave was announced

Re: Brexit
 

BREAKING: France drafts "No deal" Brexit law.

French Government publish its draft No Deal law on website of French Senate: “reestablishment of checks of goods and passengers” & “restoration of veterinary, sanitary, phytosanitary, safety controls & customs formalities”

https://news.sky.com/story/live-eu-c...ummit-11527852

Re: Brexit
 

I hope we are preparing as much as EU is because as I always said no deal is very likely indeed

Re: Brexit
 

This doesn't become true - no matter how many times you keep repeating the same crap.

Re: Brexit
 

if was so easy why it not one person solved it just because you keep repeating it not true don't mean it isn't true it is both EU and UK have said so too

Re: Brexit
 

Who the hell is going to build a non-existent border that the EU said they don't want?

The Irish won't.

The UK won't so who will have jurisdiction, who will send soldiers to man a non-existent border noone wants ? :confused:

Re: Brexit
 

under WTO rules they have to be a hard border in a no deal Brexit as we have to use WTO rules then as said earlier if it was easy we have a deal with EU by now

both side have said stumbling block for deal is Ireland border as most of rest of deal is done

Re: Brexit
 

If there rest of the deal is done then why is everyone prepared for a no deal?

Re: Brexit
 

Same old crap: I voted Leave with no plan but it's not my fault that we ended up in this mess.

Re: Brexit
 

Could you link to this rule as you seem to know so much about it?
Preferably from the WTO site.

Re: Brexit
 

Much as I would like Dave42 to flounder on Pip's question, there is no WTO rule that requires the UK to establish a border for trade purposes.

However, if we don't, then there must be no discrimination by the UK as between the EU and other nations who are entitled to trade with us under the same terms. i.e. no tariffs.

In practice this could be difficult going from the UK to Ireland in that tariffs between the EU and other nations will need to be preserved by the EU. They/Ireland will have to set up a border.

If we set any trade agreements that differ in tariff or other regulation from the EU, then a border will be needed by the EU.

The EU and UK should agree to work on the technical solutions rather than the EU be obdurate so they can keep us in the CU.

Re: Brexit
 

How about some recent comments from the Head of the WTO about the impact of a no-deal (nothing about WTO and a hard border, as that is an EU/U.K. thing).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-a8505946.html

The only thing I can find relating to the WTO and a hard border is this FT article, which is mostly about the same stuff as above.

https://www.ft.com/content/4f0ea43e-...a-7342fe5e173f And there’s this from the Chancellor of the Exchequer at the recent Tory Party conference.

https://www.politico.eu/article/phil...o-brexit-deal/

Re: Brexit
 

… and what Hugh has posted is the reason we should have stayed in that rotten, undemocratic, EU? Working to the agenda of Germany and its French running dog? With the Irish tail wagging the UK dog?

Re: Brexit
 

Mmm ...

https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...r-after-brexit

Re: Brexit
 

From Varoufakis:

"In truth, Brussels is a democracy-free zone. From the EU’s inception in 1950, Brussels became the seat of a bureaucracy administering a heavy industry cartel, vested with unprecedented law-making capacities. Even though the EU has evolved a great deal since, and acquired many of the trappings of a confederacy, it remains in the nature of the beast to treat the will of electorates as a nuisance that must be, somehow, negated. The whole point of the EU’s inter-governmental organisation was to ensure that only by a rare historical accident would democratic mandates converge and, when they did, never restrain the exercise of power in Brussels.

In June 2016, Britain voted, for better or for worse, for Brexit. May suddenly metamorphosed from a soft Remainer to a hard Brexiteer. In so doing she is about to fall prey to an EU that will frustrate and defeat her, pushing her into either a humiliating climb-down or a universally disadvantageous outcome. "

---------- Post added at 15:09 ---------- Previous post was at 15:07 ----------

That's how I explained it in shorter terms.

Re: Brexit
 

As you know so little about it, why don't you do some research on the subject? Here's a starter:

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/...their-borders/

Re: Brexit
 

I get your point. The danger of an unlimited length backstop agreement is the loss of urgency in reaching an agreement by December 2020 or possibly a year later. I guess the question comes down to confidence - we will reach an agreement by these dates and, if yes, will everything be in place to implement this agreement. I remember back when 'technological solutions' were proposed and there was the question could they be in place by the deadline?

It's a tough one - will there be an implementable agreement by the deadlines agreed and, if not, what happen then? More can kicking for Northern Ireland?

Re: Brexit
 

I think we all agree that the EU needs to improve the Democratic Deficit. It has come a long way but needs to improve.

You mention Varoufakis a lot but he does think that the EU as a project is worthwhile and he recommends we (the UK) stay within it:

Yanis Varoufakis: Why we must save the EU

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

But why would they have any faith in ours? Gove has admitted in public that any agreement could be reneged upon in the future.

---------- Post added at 16:31 ---------- Previous post was at 16:24 ----------

Really interesting analysis of "imminent" FTA with Australia:

https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/sta...58691629338626

Re: Brexit
 

I have which is why I asked Dave42 to link to the rule he and others keep harping on about. It doesn't exist.

There is also nothing to stop us entering into a Regional Trade Agreement with the EU which would trump MFN.

Re: Brexit
 

But what you don't seem to understand is that unless we put border checks in place, goods and people can pass freely into the uk. If we allow the eu to do that then we must allow every other wto country to do the same. So no we don't HAVE to put a hard border in place but the co nsequences of not putting one?

Re: Brexit
 

For all of history apart from the most recent few decades we have not been in the EU! For heaven's sake!

The British public were asked whether or not they wanted to leave, and they said leave. That was the discharge of their duty. It is for politicians to resolve the detail. However, the consequence of that decision must be to come out of the customs union in order to do our own trade deals. Many people may not have understood what the customs union was, but they were very clear that they were well on board with the idea of our forging new trade deals all around the world.

If we leave with no plan, there will be an Irish border. That's exactly what the Irish Prime Minister says he doesn't want. So go figure. Of course there will be a deal.

Re: Brexit
 

Which have been the most war-free decades for us? Which ones have shown the highest GDP per person? The ones when we were in or out of the EU?

As ianch99 has pointed out, countries like Australia will prioritise trade deals first with the EU as it's a bigger market and the UK afterwards.

I think that the solution will be a longer transition period. It won't go down well with some Brexiters at first but I'm sure they'll agree to. So maybe a transition period of between two and three years.

Re: Brexit
 

Dead right it is not my fault that I made a democratic decision and that I would make the same one again and again!!!

And we are only in a mess thanks to the EU pissing about and Remainer MPs in government/parliament trying their damn hardest to thwart the result.... But fancy you completely ignoring this issue and thinking you can play the blame game on people, exercising a democratic right - it does not wash me with me and never will!!! :dozey: :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit
 

WTO don’t require a hard border, this has been established earlier in the thread a month or so ago.

---------- Post added at 21:49 ---------- Previous post was at 21:44 ----------

Anyway there will be no further summit in November, No Deal here we come.

Next 5 months are going to be entertaining

---------- Post added at 22:19 ---------- Previous post was at 21:49 ----------

No they haven’t.

Northern Ireland 1969-1998. 763 servicemen killed.

Falklands War 1982. 255 Servicemen killed

Desert Storm 1990-91. 47 troops killed

Balkans 1992-2001. 48 killed

Sierra Leone 2000. 1 killed

Afghanistan 2001 - 2014. 456 killed

Iraq 2 2003-2011. 150 killed.

Yeah no wars, ........ if you mean we haven’t fought Germany since joining the EU, then you may be right.

But neither had we fought them for the 30 years previous to joining the EU.

Re: Brexit
 

Fair enough but it was a question, not an answer.

---------- Post added at 23:52 ---------- Previous post was at 22:59 ----------

Little surprise here.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolo...ets-fake-news/

Re: Brexit
 

Really?

None of those were wars, except for Iraq and Afghanistan, and we got dragged into those because of Bush Jnr, so not an EU issue.

NI wasn’t a war, it was an internal conflict based in history, so good luck blaming the EU for that (and I had a couple of detachments there when I was on the Dark Side, so saw it from both sides (being of Irish Catholic descent)).

You knew he meant there had been no Europe-wide conflicts.

Re: Brexit
 

I wasn’t blaming the EU. He said they’d been war free, which they hadn’t. Simple.

Re: Brexit
 

I trust that you are not suggesting that there will now be wars between the UK and EU countries after we pull out of the EU? That's Project Fear with rocket boosters!

I don't know why you would suggest prolonging the implementation period by another year (other than to try to drag this on indefinitely). This isn't a solution, it's just kicking that proverbial can down the road. This needs to be sorted now and the EU needs to stop putting non-existent problems in the way.

Re: Brexit
 

I didn't. I asked the question. Also please note the adjective "most".

Re: Brexit
 

Perhaps the UK electorate have been their own worse enemies in this respect, by electing people who do not want to work with other EU nations. Relegating the UK to the fringes of democratic decision making within the EU Parliament. Aided and abetted by a press that concentrates on these outsiders rather than those who are hard at work within the system.

Bit like voting for Sinn Fein and expecting them to change Westminster.

Re: Brexit
 

Give over, you asked the question rhetorically, implying that you already knew the answer.

The point I was making that being in the EU didn’t make war free and never will. I also don’t give much credence to the argument that it is responsible for ending war in Europe.

Re: Brexit
 

That's a bit pedantic! NI was a Civil War.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

They isolate the fringe MEPs - because they are out of touch and not prepared to work with their fellow MEPs (same as the fringe MEPs from every other EU country). The hard working British MEPs are respected and part and parcel of decisions made. Just Joe public in the UK rarely hear about them, because the press prefer the noisy outsiders.

One example, Farage bleating about the fisheries policy changes nothing. Same big 5 UK industrial fishing companies will still control most of the fishing in UK waters after Brexit, so the small sustainable independents will continue to struggle.

Re: Brexit
 

The EU is pushing for 3 years instead of 2 stalling talks in the hope another 8billion will be paid to them and hoping that there will be a change in Government "Cough" Labour! who will accept any terms in favour of membership.

There is no going back now we will be worse off than we have ever been should we decide to stay.

Re: Brexit
 

Extending the transition is a UK idea in return for the EU conceding to the UK-Wide rather than NI-specific 'backstop'. The idea being that it will alleviate their concerns that the UK backstop won't be ready/expires and thus a border goes up in Ireland. The EU isn't pushing for it. Both the Brexit and Remain-sides, and the UK and the EU, are all clear it was a UK idea.

---------- Post added at 14:23 ---------- Previous post was at 13:19 ----------

Looks like May has got what she wants:

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/s...03483978989569

Re: Brexit
 

but the leavers all say EU not budged one bit

Re: Brexit
 

Onwards and upwards ... as has been said previously most if not everything will get worked out. The EU need us more than we need them...

Re: Brexit
 

Must be why this process is so easy then....:erm:

Re: Brexit
 

another lie

Re: Brexit
 

If the EU got their bollocks on that table rather than hiding them inside their tights then many of the issues would already be in agreement .They are the ones dragging the heels in some weak twisted attempt to hold the UK hostage over certain issues like the NI backstop.

Re: Brexit
 

Oh here we are again with the "It was Russia" to blame for Brexit....and that UK Electorate isn't free thinking enough to think on it's feet and needed Putin's help. FFS, give me a break with this bollocks!!!

---------- Post added at 14:53 ---------- Previous post was at 14:52 ----------

No it isn't.

Re: Brexit
 

yes it is we be hit much harder than them in a no deal brexit

Re: Brexit
 

Give and take on both sides as has always been the case in order to get a binding agreement.

Re: Brexit
 

https://news.sky.com/story/europe-re...-them-11462776

Re: Brexit
 

exactly Den both side got to give and take a bit

Re: Brexit
 

This the same logic that Leavers had before the referendum that the German car manufacturers would force a deal. Where did that go? Are they waiting for a last minute dramatic intervention?

Re: Brexit
 

They need us more than we need them and nothing you or any other Remainer opinion piece says, will change that view I hold, ever!

I do not need the EU and never will - I revoke my EU Citizenship right here and now, I do not want it and to be associated with a filthy, undemocratic and totally corrupted union, AKA the EU!!!!!!!

Re: Brexit
 

How so?

Re: Brexit
 

no matter how much you say it will never make it true it not

Re: Brexit
 

All bollocks and conjecture.

---------- Post added at 15:03 ---------- Previous post was at 15:01 ----------

Don't use the same lines I did to you - get original. :rolleyes:

It is true to me - end of discussion.

Re: Brexit
 

Extending the 'transition', well who have thought it ?? :rolleyes:. This isn't worthy of a pantomine plot, it's all too predictable sadly.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Being a stable educated sorts, Mr K - surely, you mean Pantomime ? ;)

Oh yes, the topic - What's predictable is the EU trying to shaft the UK for as long as it can get away with it, it's been doing it for decades, so another couple of extra months won't matter to them, all courtesy of weak and pathetic Remainer Civil Servants, currently aiding and abetting the Prime Minister, who is acting like an unstable thicko.

Re: Brexit
 

We still have our own laws. Our government were and are responsible for who comes here and who gets benefits. The fact our own government cannot be bothered to sort out something so simple. Yet you are more concerned about being a parochial little island, rapidly decreasing in importance, just so we can avoid being part of something bigger and more united by what they have in common, than divided by hatred and fear.

I for one would rather be inside and influencing, than outside and waving impotently.

Pragmatically I know we will leave the EU, I am just bewildered by how angry some leave supporters still seem to be.

Re: Brexit
 

Maybe its just a rubbish idea that's going to cause the country a lot of damage Mick? There's no getting away from that, the best we do is delay and fudge.TM knows it, every sensible mainstream politician knows it. We're just delaying in the hope someone else will sort this all out for us, they won't.

Re: Brexit
 

And herein lies the issue - the astonishment that a democratic decision taken, is taking years to implement.

I truly would love to say I live in a free and democratic society, where citizens vote for something and it is implemented without hesitation.

Lots of dithering going on by Remainers trying to convince rest of us leavers, we made the wrong choice. This is bordering on a dictatorship.

Re: Brexit
 

It was always going to take a while. Even before the referendum people were told Article 50 was two years.

Undoing years of ties is not easy.

Re: Brexit
 

Much of the publics disenchantment with governments of all stripes is how little most support the winners manifestos. Party members are the only ones who have some say and these seem to have become very dictatorial on both sides of the house.

We are and have been governed by minorities for decades.

Re: Brexit
 

There also another very important stat.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...contributions/


Bottom line is they will have a +14% hole in their budget to fill, which is not inconsiderable. So to say we are in a totally weak position is not quite true.

Re: Brexit
 

No, even with the previous statistics it's not good for the EU. My point though is that they don't need us more than we need them. It's not a symmetrical power balance which is partly why May is having such a hard time. It's still in both parties interest to reach a deal.

Re: Brexit
 

Leavers all knew what they voted for and years of uncertainty whilst we unwound ourselves from the EU and the treaties it had enacted was made clear by Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and others.

---------- Post added at 18:01 ---------- Previous post was at 17:59 ----------

Exactly, the closer the relationship between the EU27 and the UK, the better off we will all be. The further apart we get, the worse off we get. We're not fighting for a bigger piece of the same cake, we've different ingredients to add that make it a bigger cake.

---------- Post added at 18:10 ---------- Previous post was at 18:01 ----------

Pure comedy gold! :D The bonkers theory that the EU needs us more than we need them is either born of some 19th-century colonial superiority belief or from Diane Abbott's magical calculator. We both need each other but as the EU27 dwarf us in population and GDP, we clearly need them more than they need us!

Re: Brexit
 

No we have not.

Again, you are including nonsense about minorities because the entire populace did not participate in an Election/referendum cycle.

Where a majority exists in a referendum, it beats the other binary option by a significant amount, in the EU Referendum, more than one million people voted leave over remain - that is not a minority.

Those who were ineligible to vote or could not be arsed to vote - do not become part of the argument, "well it was only a minority of people who actually voted", when the decision that was democratically decided, was not the right one to the losers.

You keep going on about this and it is wrong and misleading to keep bringing it up, it is irrelevant going on the principle that the EU Referendum was the largest Democratic processes undertaken, in recent British History.

Re: Brexit
 

I think people are entitled to be angry with people who are trying to undermine our democratic decision.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

I think some would prefer the Russians influence to be brushed under the carpet, but anger in undermining our democratic decision here is well placed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolo...ets-fake-news/

Re: Brexit
 

Damn, it seems that because I don't 'do' twitter I may have missed out on some information that may have had an influence on the way I voted . . .



oh hang on, I wanted out long before some sad bugger even thought of twitter :p:

Re: Brexit
 

It's not all about you. No one has said that you missed out on anything!
Some people did receive some information from the Russians who clearly felt that they should invest time and effort in disseminating this information.

Re: Brexit
 

As the weekend is nearly upon us, here's a bit of humour directed at neither side that I hope everyone enjoys. :D