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And in a quoted article from 1Andrew1 ...Andrew Turnbull, who led the civil service under Tony Blair . . . stopped reading it right there :rolleyes: Posted by Mr K Trump wouldn't let you in Mick, you're an alien. US first remember ? We could benefit from that kind of thinking - UK first sounds good to me |
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To be fair Mr K, the same thing could be suggested about those who love being in the EU. Once the UK leave, it's only a short swim for those who still want to belong :D |
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The impact report examined different scenarios depending on the hardness of the Brexit deal. All showed the country foregoing economic growth compared to if it had stayed in the EU. So, less money for the NHS and our armed forces because of Brexit. It was the work of many departments as it would be daft to duplicate effort across Government. That's why the report was called EU Exit Analysis — Cross Whitehall Briefing Hapless David Davis did publish some industry reports whose quality was found wanting. He also sought to convince the country that no impact reports had been produced. http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entr...b044d16725e56d |
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You just can’t stop putting false and wrong information because it suits your anti-brexit narrative. Here are the actual facts: Quote:
http://brexitcentral.com/claims-exod...-nhs-own-data/ |
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Get it in to your head, we are leaving the EU, as we democratically elected to do so! |
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42911538
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Where are the counter studies? Surely, as I said before, the financial might of Tim Martin of Wetherspoons and Lord Bamford of JCB could rustle up a few economists to perform a realistic study to counter the remain biased civil service? Hell, Jacob Rees Mogg is worth a few bob...
The only positive studies I have seen are from Patrick Minfords Liverpool Model which predicts a nearly 9% rise in GDP post Brexit at the expense of UK manufacturing. The model is interesting in isolation but ignores consumer choice (price may not be more important than quality) and location (importing from China is tougher than importing from Ireland) For a more considered analysis of The Liverpool Model, see here - http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpo...ws-of-gravity/ |
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To what end do we keep doing all these false and baseless studies?
It will not stop the result of the vote which what the Remainers hope it does. Accept the democratic result and stop peddling the continuing narrative of project fear, which has been repeatedly wrong again and again. |
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Because if you don’t do analysis, forecasts, and budgets, how can you plan for the possible scenarios, and know what you would need in terms of resources.
All reasonably sized businesses, like Governments, plan 5 to 10 years ahead, reviewing the plans and amending in light of what’s actually happened. |
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And your point about the document - wrong. "Cross Whitehall Briefing" 1) It's not about them being angry. 2) It's not just from the Treasury, it's from across multiple departments. I think you owe our hardworking civil servants an apology for talking them down all the time. Do you honestly think that all civil servants who are are Remainers magicked their way onto the project and manipulated it? I know you can do far better than this. :( ---------- Post added at 17:13 ---------- Previous post was at 17:10 ---------- Quote:
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Asking for the government to make educated decisions based on the best information available isn’t trying to stop Brexit, it’s trying to get the best possible Brexit based on scientific predictions |
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Poll details - https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/01...it-extremists/ Of course, that is at the level of individuals. Maybe the government needs to be a bit more pragmatic as a reduced tax take impacts virtually all government activities, hence the need to make plans and have at least some kind of educated approach based on predictions |
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Here's another of those
Andrew Adonis launches his drive to reverse Brexit https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ond-referendum Though this Blairite former Liberal Democrat is as far from his party’s current leadership as it is possible to get, he remains optimistic that Jeremy Corbyn can also be persuaded to change his mind on the merits of a second referendum “I dread the thought of a second referendum,” says Lucy Smout Szablewska, a local remain campaigner who has nonetheless come along to hear the plan. Quote:
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Andrew stop being so stupid or do you honestly believe only one impact study was done by the government to fit all the different departments far more then one were commissioned but only one was leaked. Also can you stop saying we all thought we were going to be immediately better off it's been said many times on this forum that in the short to medium term we will be worse off but in the longer term we will be better off. You constantly misrepresent things then wonder why no one takes you seriously and also stop pretending you have a clue about how the civil service is working when you think only one impact study was done to cover all aspects of brexit for all government departments.
You don't know anything for a fact neither do i and here's a shocker neither do the experts who haven't been right once so far but they keep coming out with guff because people call them experts and expect them to come out with something. This is unknown territory nobody can honestly claim to know exactly what's going to happen and it's time some people stopped pretending and shutup so the government can get on with it. Hell if some remainers had their way there would be no point in negotiations with the EU because we'd have shown all our cards at the start it's beyond stupidity. |
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I am off for a tin foil hat fitting now. |
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The point you don't want to ponder is that we may actually get a trade deal that includes services when we pull out of the EU, and that on top of that, we will get increased business with the rest of the world. That would make us better off, not worse off. |
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So who do we talk to, to compensate for potential gdp loss from EU trade? The US are playing more and more hardball with their ‘America First’ policy. TTIP has stalled partially due to US demands such as being able to sue governments if their policies harm businesses. Indian have mentioned a loosening of immigration requirements as part of a trade deal. Chile aren’t happy with tariff quota allowances and you can be sure that the rest of South America will follow. South Korea have already said they want to address the balance of trade with the UK before any agreement can be reached. Liam Fox and his department have some busy times ahead... |
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The issue is that the UK will enjoy less influence in Europe (eg Europol which we heavily steer) and the economy will grow less strongly than if we had remained in the EU. Until a form of transport exists that can transport people and goods as rapidly and cheaply between the UK and Europe as between the UK and the rest of the world, trade deals with neighbouring countries will always outweigh those with more distant countries. If you read the Government's analysis, you would realise that trade with the rest of the world would add less than 1% in GDP whilst leaving the EU would result in a 2%-8% reduction in GDP. That analysis makes uncomfortable reading for some and I appreciate you may wish to turn a blind eye to it. |
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I've been thinking about this and you know something? I think Andrew is right, we're well up the creek and no paddles to hand.
We import crops from the EU because we don't know how to grow our own. We import meat because we can't rear livestock. Milk and Cheese are imported because we lack the technology to produce it Chickens? heck yeah, we have a country full of those. ;) Cars, well I guess most of those come from abroad too . . along with TV's, Mobiles, Microwaves and Dishwashers. Clothes, Carpets, Furniture, all mass produced and shipped in daily. Service industries . . . well that's just a few computers in an office somewhere, could be anywhere in the world (that's cheap enough). Banking? see above. Gas & Electricity comes from . . . oh yeah. So, after mulling over this little puzzle I realised the only thing we have in this country to generate cash for the economy is . . . speeding fines :D |
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Well, since 51% of our food is imported, we best start growing it tout-suite...
We only produce 38% of the gas we use. 85% of new cars bought in the UK are imported. |
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I guess what I'm getting at is . . . if all the trade deals offered to us are really bad, who else are the EU going to sell to? |
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No10 has confirmed we will be leaving the customs union so no soft brexit as being out of that pretty much gaurantees full exit from the EU happy days :).
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Honestly, Andrew! The EU is not the only place we will be getting our goods from post Brexit. I think you place too much reliance on forecasts when forming your opinions and making your comments, most of which have proved wrong in recent times. They tend to concentrate on negatives without adequate consideration of the potential benefits. |
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How about non-seasonal goods from cars to pharmaceuticals? What about industries such as the automotive industry that have notoriously short supply chains. I heard somewhere that Nissan in the UK holds less than half a days production of parts in stock. The further goods have to come, the more likely there will be delays and the longer those delays will be. It's certainly not impossible that there are some sweet deals out there but the question is, are they sweeter than what we had? |
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If shipped there's little difference, if made they can build a plant here too :) |
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What makes you think that forecasts don't consider the potential upsdes? Is this another conspiracy theory or one you have some evidence on? |
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Tory MP, Zac Goldsmith is claiming an 80 year old constituent who voted leave has been sent a letter threatening to be killed and signed it off with "The Real 48 Per cent".
https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/sta...41047272112128 |
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Another warped nutter sadly who should be locked up with the keys thrown away.:(
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Isn't is amazing how when positive news about the economy, job numbers are up etc etc we get some Remainers claiming it's down to us not leaving th EU yet.
But when there is news of job losses, price hikes and similar kind of negative economy news, Brexit is instantly blamed, some people have weird logic that really is utterly priceless. Doesn't make any difference to me, I would still vote to leave, every time! |
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Did Cameron et al pick the worse case scenarios? Yes. Did the Brexit guys pick impossibly good scenarios? Yes. That doesn't mean experts are wrong. Would you rather have Jim at No. 35 doing your heart bypass or someone who's qualified and skilled in the process doing it? ---------- Post added at 22:53 ---------- Previous post was at 22:51 ---------- Quote:
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Well if it all goes stupidly wrong because the people in charge do a backflip on Brexit, I'm gonna quit work, live on the dole and let some other mug pick up the tab.
oh, and free health care too on the NHS (or Jim at No. 35) |
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People can parrot this nonsense as much as they like, but they are losing credibility as people wake up to the truth. |
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To put it another way, Project Fear is dead. We're now looking at reality. |
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Both sides speak with forked tongue and weasel words.
With a few exceptions politicians are seeking the best outcome for politicians. I would expect differences though even within parties because our MP's represent differing constituencies that voted differently in the referendum and are affected differently. That said they should be working together to ensure the best outcome not flying off the rails with doom and gloom predictions and no solutions. |
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Then, the rest of the world will be ours! |
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Doubtless, there will be a poor deal with the EU which the Brexiters will drool over but the sane world will be pitying of. How it will all square with no border between the two Irelands I do not know. |
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Well i suppose if it's going to be so bad in the UK after brexit there will be quite a few leaving our shores for the utopian paradise across the channel as it's unheard of for there to be problems across the channel only the UK will have problems. Ah well be sad to see em go but much like life outside of the EU we will initially survive to prosper later.
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The Irish border thing is another thing some Remainers cling on to as a major issue when it's not.
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Yes and if i had the money I'd be gone I'm so sick of a sizable portion of the population that have turned into thin skinned moaning gits that do nothing but spurt negatives all day long. As for the irish border it's this hard we say things stay as they are, Eire says things stay as they are job done all sorted unless the EU have a problem with that.
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it'll be a smugglers paradise will that Irish sea :D
How much is an old gunboat nowadays? ;) |
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More on the crucial Irish border situation
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Leaked EU document shows Brexit 'punishment plan'
https://news.sky.com/story/leaked-eu...-plan-11239487 Theresa May's chief Brexit tormentor, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has stepped up his pressure on the Prime Minister after claims the EU plans to punish the UK during a transition period. According to an incendiary threat contained in a leaked Brussels document, the EU wants the power to restrict the UK's access to the single market during a transition period and impose big trade tariffs |
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Contrary to the view you seem to hold on this, the EU does not have comprehensive trade agreements with the rest of the world, including our biggest trading partner other than the EU, the United States of America! Nothing will be lost in 2020 other than EU incompetence, EU restrictions and EU myths, which will be exposed for all to see. If the EU is this wonderful institution that allows us to trade with the rest of tbe world, how come we had to leave our Commonwealth countris behind as part of this wonderful project? |
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Do you remember TTIP? The US and US have been working on a trade agreement for a number of years but significant issues remain. Here's an excerpt from the joint US/EU status report;
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Here's the EU page on US trade - http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/cou...united-states/ And trade with China - http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/cou...untries/china/ |
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Yes, there's a lot to be done and people need to get their fingers out, burn the midnight oil if needed, employ more staff and actually DO something. |
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Personally I think we should sign up to the EU bodies where there is no real benefit, trade wise, to having our own. I.E Do we really need to leave Euratom which regulates the transport, management and safety of nuclear material? Not really. What's the point of setting up and staffing an agency which on the face of it will do nothing but mirror EU regulation. Stuff like that will speed it up. |
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I think the EU is going to stitch us up big time during the transition period they want payback and are aiming to get it. They won't finish on just a divorce settlement they'll screw everything from us for years to come.
I think if we haven't got very far towards the end of the year and threats are still coming our way we should just jump the cliff and laugh at the stupidity of the EU as they run around looking for their next milk float |
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So Theresa May refused to rule out the NHS being a subject of interest in post Brexit UK/US trade talks - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...rade-deal.html (I hope the source is OK with everyone, didn’t want to cite The Guardian or Independent)
Vaguely corrected later by the PMs press office but worrying |
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Impact on UK regions revealed in Brexit leak as usual North East worse off https://news.sky.com/story/hit-to-no...-leak-11240254 |
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Incisive analysis from Robert Peston. Full article worth reading.
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You mean when WW3 was predicted if we vote out kind of lies just to try and make sure the vote was going the way they wanted
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Oh wonderful, the red bus argument rears it's ugly head again.... Must be Groundhog Day, cue Sonny and Cher.... pffft, forget it, CBA... :rolleyes:
I would still vote to leave the EU all the time. (Not tired of ever saying this though). |
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Sadly for leave voters, the saying that what goes around, comes around seems to be true with Brexit. Parts of the UK that voted Leave in the referendum will suffer most as a result of Brexit, according to the cross-departmental Government impact assessment.
The north-east and the West Midlands would suffer the biggest hit to growth, while London, which voted heavily for Remain, would be least negatively affected. |
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So we have gone from guessing possibles economics to knowing how brexiters will respond oh my you remainers are clever people how could anyone doubt you. I voted leave would vote leave again and I'm on benefits so know I'll be amongst those who will feel the impact and I'm good with that if it means we avoid becoming just another state in the U.S.E and the glorious united european military and police. Hey you remember how nick clegg told people that a european military wouldn't happen bet he feels a bit silly now they have started on that.
Or how about the time the EU tried to have non eurozone countries responsible for the debt of eurozone countries that was a chuckle and I'm sure our remainer contingent would have been happy to pay for that (that ones on the backburner for now). Lets look at Mr macron who feels the UK voted for brexit as there wasn't enough regulation and free market attitude in the EU he has his thumb on the pulse doesn't he. Now we have a leak about how the EU plans to punish the UK during any transitional phase and our remainer contingent brushes past that as they do with anything that doesn't paint their beloved EU in a postive light. You really don't have to look too hard for a miriad of reasons why getting out of the EU though painful initially will eventually be the best thing for the UK and why is it our media that hunts down any anti brexit stories with great enthusiasm still doesn't report on the german industry displeasure with merkel over the EU's negotiating attitude or the concerns the french have over a no deal it's always "british government this" never a thing about the circus going on elsewhere. I voted leave without needing the red bus (that seems to have worked on remainers more then any leave voter I've so far met or talked too) no politician spouting garbage involved and that's why remain lost you were too busy patting yourself on the back for being superior and not realising that most leave voters had reached that decision a long time before we got the chance to vote. |
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Oh shut up MrK you constantly prattle on about the same rubbish and coming from you and others it's ironic given you've done nothing but moan, insult and insinuate since the referendum we couldn't match your remoaning without a good few years of practice. As usual you won't respond on anything negative about the EU so what is your view on the leaked document that shows the EU plans to punish the UK during the transitional phase??????.
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Another of the usual suspects that has selective viewing and won't answer a simple asked question not surprised par for the course these days.
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Probably the same place you get most of your garbage from fantasyland seems to suit you well and the fact your ok with a punitive action by the EU speaks volumes about you and makes it abundantly clear this is not the forum for any discussion. I doubt there's a limit to how far you'd allow the EU to go demonstrates perfectly why this country is in the mess it is and while I haven't used the term traitor it would certainly be the closest term to describe some.
Well Denphone I've tried to be more to the polite side of things and it clearly doesn't work here and I'm tired of the constant claims of moaning to come from brexiters by a group that's done nothing but moan, whinge, bitch and complain since they lost the referendum. I have also put up good reasons why i and many i know voted leave only to have the ridiculous red bus rubbish resurface again and again. It's my mistake i thought maybe things had changed around here clearly not so I'll be off again maybe in six months things will change won't hold my breath. |
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Why do you assume that being in the EU is the be all and end all of life? All these other countries that are not part of the EU seem to be trading ok. China, America, Russia etc if anything they are doing better.
We are being held back by outdated countries that live in the past, you want to trade with us well pay Billions in first then we let you trade and we make the rules on how you govern your country. I mean whats that all about? freedom of movement doesn't work for everything. You can get skilled people without freedom of movement from all the said countries with it. the only thing freedom of movement brings is those wanting to take up low skilled paid jobs. Once we have gone from the EU the cracks will appear all over it might take some more years before it shows but they'll be no doubt other governments will want to govern themselves on all aspects. they'll sit there for years to see how well the UK does on it's own. Then the shit will happen. It's only the likes of a few EU countries like Germany as the ring leader with a few closer followers that while they might all have an equal vote. behind closed doors is where the real influence starts and Germany is at the top of the table with a few bully boys. The UK as a few friends I think these will show in a few years they don't want to upset the apple cart yet. Remain voters are followers they can't take the lead, they can't think for themselves hence the EU. Brexit voters are strong people these are the people who in a war you want on side, strong willed, independant and know what they want. Just take that into account when the EU falls apart and is no more the'll come running to us for advice. |
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China, Russia and America have slightly bigger and stronger economies than us ! Being outside the EU will give us a much weaker hand in trade deals. Some Brexiters still think we have an Empire; we don't and we're relatively small.
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