Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If I decide to vote Yes it will be despite of Eck and Sturgeon not because of them. There's a bigger picture ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Just think we need to agree to disagree on Scotland Hugh.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Indeed there is, unfortunately Eck and Nippy will be holding the crayons if we vote Yes.

There have always been circumstances under which I could have ended up voting Yes, but what's on offer courtesy of the SNP fills me with dread. This should never have been about their particular vision of independence, but that's what it's come down to. I just can't trust them to do the right thing.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

So if the campaign wasn't being run by Salmond, would people vote yes rather than no?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

We will never know!

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I don't think so. I don't think we would have got this far if Salmond wasn't around. The calibre of politicians up North seems to be poor with the good ones heading to London and he has done well as a result.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Possibly. If the yes campaign was honest and admitted that a yes vote came with risks rather than blindly claiming it'll be OK and smearing anyone who dares disagree then I think it might be closer still.

As it stands the ridiculous assertions that everyone will bend over backwards to give iScotland everything it wants and more with nothing in return shows just how the yes campaign is all about getting the result regardless of the ramifications.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Out of interest what circumstances would you have been a Yes voter? Always had you down as a committed, unwavering, Unionist out of principle (and being English)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The Nationalist case is that the Westminster system of government is irredeemably corrupt and incapable of governing Scotland effectively, and that only a sovereign Scottish government could adequately perform the role.

They haven't demonstrated that Westminster is as bad as they say it is. Most of their complaints are severely over-egged and are the result of party politics, not systemic failure.

On the other side of the equation, they have proposed a Scottish government that is immediately tied to Westminster anyway, via currency union, replacing a system in which Scots are directly represented in the legislature sitting in the Palace of Westminster, with a system in which they have no representation at all in the place where the currency, and therefore the entire economic system, will be controlled.

They have also bleated constantly about an incident earlier this year during which a Russian navy cruiser anchored in the Moray Firth, resulting in a RN destroyer coming up from the south coast to intercept and escort (and taking 24 hours to arrive, which apparently is a travesty), while simultaneously proposing defence arrangements for Scotland that would guarantee Scotland's complete inability to respond to a similar future incident in any effective way at all.

The "positive vision" for Scotland's future has amounted to left-wing spending commitments, accompanied by only the vaguest hints as to how any of it will be funded, and a basic ignorance of what you can promise to be the constitutional foundations of a nation and what is actually just party politics, entirely reversible from one administration to the next, as circumstances and ideology dictate.

Had the Yes campaign bigged up the differences in Scottish civic outlook, rather than slandering the rest of the UK (i.e. England) at every turn, I might have had confidence that the referendum would give birth to a truly energised, positive, forward looking nation.

Had the Yes campaign taken a realistic view of this island's needs for integrated defences, rather than trying to grab the Faslane peace camp vote by monstering Trident at every opportunity (while, simultaneously trying to craw right back under the nuclear umbrella Trident helps to create), then I might have believed the referendum would result in a confident nation with a realistic, pragmatic understanding of the dangerous world we live in and a willingness to do what's necessary to safeguard its citizens at home and abroad.

And, had the Yes campaign shown even the slightest hint of understanding of the political and economic difficulties of currency union, and engaged constructively with the issue, as opposed to threatening to walk away from the national debt of the UK and make Scotland a pariah in the money markets, then I might have thought the referendum was capable of birthing a nation with an understanding of the global economy into which it would be born, and the responsibilities that stretch beyond its borders.

But none of that has happened. Hence, a great big NO THANKS from me.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It's going to be a messy divorce..

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Really Derek??...

Please refer me to some link to me to this perception you seem to have. I find it astounding that people are in incapable of having an impartial debate.

It's just as much as a belter that Putin will invade, so keep the wmd's. I not even going to waste my time trying to counter arguing your point.

Noting personal mate.

...one concession I will make this now is that snp do need to rethink the defence policy.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

...then....

:disturbd:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Russ... By all means, I welcome you to try and provoke a impartial debate about boths sides on this thread.

Yeah, I know it seems hypocritical, but say if, you did not agree with what he stated, then u may understand where I coming from.

People may say I am wrong, but if this the case, then I need to get my eyes and ears tested pronto :)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

This is a discussion forum. If you honestly expect a completely impartial debate about anything then you'll be in for a long wait, especially on a topic that has the potential to change peoples' lives forever.

If someone give a biased opinion in this thread then I say the forum is working.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I take your point on board sir and for future debates :)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

However, one of the joys of debate is that it is informed, rather than polemical - we love to hear counterpoints*, rather than "you're wrong"...



*unfortunately, as in life, we don't always get what we want.... ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I'm more upset with the English politicians showing their usual lack of backbone... 'please don't go, look if you stay we'll devolve you some more'... ffs

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Are there no risks by voting No? The political landscape will change either way.

Without smearing anybody - the NO campaign is also blindly claiming that everything will be OK with an undefined Devo-max. Have you seen any figures for this? The ridiculous assertions of the Yes campaign are matched by the condescending negativity of BT.

---------- Post added at 23:00 ---------- Previous post was at 22:26 ----------

You're right ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

You already know what the Union offers. No one is claiming it's perfect or that we can see the future. Better Together cannot offer anything more than what you have as it's a cross-party effort where the parties disagree on various policies. I don't think they've said everything will be OK. It won't be. Life will go on and there will still be problems facing the country. There will be problems for every generation, and the generation after that, and the one after that just as there have been for all the generations prior.

Yes has a massive advantage. They don't have reality to deal with. All their assertions and promises are for the future. This gives them considerably more leeway in promoting a optimistic vision without the realities of implication weighing them down.

No has no such luxury, the flaws are there for all to see. No cannot promise a richer Scotland because it would be here already. It cannot offer much better pensions, because rUK is having to try and cut down on the bill. It cannot not offer a job for every young person because how the hell do you do that? We don't have the money in the UK to have everything we want and since No is burdened by the reality of governance it cannot pretend it would either.

So yes it is negative. No cannot give you everything Yes is claiming they'll give you. There isn't really much that can be done about that. There isn't really much more to say. :shrug:

---------- Post added at 23:17 ---------- Previous post was at 23:12 ----------

Relevant Simpsons Clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y32PWF-zxqs

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It's moved on from the bull***** of BT and the false smugness of the Yes campaign. I'm witnessing the debate taking place in the street, in the office, on the train and in the living room. The ordinary punters have suddenly became galvanised by the referendum and it's not down to politicians or the mainstream printed media.

From being fairly convinced that I'd vote No, I've moved towards considering voting Yes. Much of the BT together campaign is based on scaremongeing; the facts as presented aren't so concrete as they had me believe, and some of it is just downright insulting to anybody with half a brain.... you won't get BBC (that'll get the Eastender fans voting no), Cancer research funding will be removed from Scottish Universities etc.

The main point that made me reconsider my position was from a colleague who turned the argument on it's head. He asked, if Scotland was already independent, would I vote Yes in a referendum to become part of the United Kingdom..... my behind is getting sore sitting on the fence while I ponder that one.:confused:

In my circles, at the moment, there is definitely a fair bit of momentum for the Yes campaign that I don't think is quite being captured in the rest of the UK. It's not quite a juggernaut so I suspect the No vote will still win.... but maybe not.

In Football terms, the No campaign were winning by 2-0 against 10 men. The yes campaign have now got a penalty and the No campaign have had their goalie sent off.....There's still 10 minutes to go...:shocked:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Well from being a staunch wanting Scotland to remain as part of the union person I now actually would prefer Scotland vote yes and go it alone. Why simple this referendum isn't going to be the end of the issue it's going to drag on and on like a festering sore till the SNP get what they want. I'm already sick and tired of hearing ruk being slagged off all the time and seeing our politicians bending over backwards for Scotland so please vote yes and bugger off to your utopian future. If and when it all goes pear shaped just don't look to ruk to help out in anyway. Sick of the whole damn thing and the division it has created.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It comes from the EU position, where they assume iScotland will get in and keep all the UK benefits no questions asked despite almost all experts saying this isn't the case.
The CU issue where Salmond says if the Scottish people want it we will get it whilst completely ignoring the 55 million or so rUK people who clearly don't want a foreign country leeching on their central bank.
The debt issue where walking away from your obligations for not getting the deal you want is seen as acceptable and won't have any repercussions.
The free money and unicorns for all where pensions are guaranteed to rise, benefits are guaranteed to rise, wages are guaranteed to rise, free child are for everyone and all their other promises that are uncosted and don't stand up to the slightest scrutiny.

They are resorting to sound bite politics and some areas are buying into it hook, line and sinker.

A 'fairer society'? What does that mean and how are you going to achieve it? Answer that instead of trotting out the words at every opportunity and I'll think about it.

If only you were alive 300 years ago when it was being debated ;)

I'm assuming from that you are fiercely anti-EU and don't want to cede any powers to a capital several hundred miles away, with unelected heads and people who don't speak a common language and history.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

In the words of Dr Ian Malcolm

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

An excellent article in the Scotsman today about mail and telecoms in iScotland.

Basically if you get a yes vote things will be get very expensive, very quickly.

Anyone who uses Internet shopping a lot or lives a bit out the way should be very worried. Would iScotland Mail or iScotland Telecoms be able to offer a universal service at a reasonable cost in such a sparsely populated country?

---------- Post added at 07:49 ---------- Previous post was at 07:48 ----------

http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-w...ence-1-3533078

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

There wasn't much debate about amongst the general population 300 years ago.

As for your second point I can only assume that you've created anagrams in your head to leap to that assumption.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Hasn't Salmond already said the Royal Mail will do it?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The sort of negativity that is now turning the tide the Yes camp's way. Other sparsely populated countries manage just fine but Scots aren't innovative enough to survive independently in the modern world.

More scaremongering; they're painting pictures of expensively manned borders, the likes of which don't exist between the countries of the EU on mainland Europe.
The old price of a stamp argument is the same one Brian Wilson trotted out in the 1970s. The world has moved on, communications have moved on, the Royal Mail, as described, exists in name only. Communications in the populated area is already being cherry picked by a host of private organisations.

The cost of posting to/from remote areas will come under pressure no matter what the outcome of the referendum... Keep listening to the scarey stories:rolleyes:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

They do it but with vastly increased costs. I'd prefer not paying £3 to send a Christmas card to relatives down south.

It's not scaremongering it's showing the yes camp want independence whatever the cost.

VAT on everything? - Worth it to get away from Westminster
Huge increases in communication costs - Worth it to get away from Westminster
Tax rises to fund a 'fairer society' - Worth it to get away from Westminster

Salmond, having moved on from admiring Ireland and Iceland since they are basket cases, now wants to be like Norway only without the huge cost of living increases.
The whole yes camp is deluded and dangerous enough to trot out any story with no care for the long impact. I mean they are happy to associate themselves with that wings over Scotland lunatic despite his 9/11 and Hillsborough comments.

---------- Post added at 08:44 ---------- Previous post was at 08:43 ----------

He's pledged to renationalise it, just like most pledges the costs haven't been thought of.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

But the basic principles remain the same. Yes is advocating a better, wealthier, Scotland and No is advocating remaining in the Union. You either believe Yes can offer this or not you either believe Better Together's protestations that their promises aren't possible or you believe they're scaremongering.

(As I side note the SNP have already said there would be a Scottish Public Broadcaster so not sure why saying you won't get the BBC is absurd considering you won't be paying towards it)

I have seen the question before about would Scotland vote Yes to joining the Union and really find it very insulting. It's a slap in the face to everyone else in it and the history behind it. As Derek says there are many times in which Scotland almost certainly would have longed to join. Would Scotland even be in a position to join if it weren't? Did Scotland's trade and manufacturing booms do well in spite or because of the Union? For it's size the UK has been absurdly successful in almost every department.

We don't know what Scotland would be otherwise. Scotland was built in the Union and the Union was built with Scotland. There have been 300 years of pretty successful history in which both sides did well from the it. However in recent times Scotland has had a smaller deficit than the rest of the UK and there is no direct budgetary gain from remaining the Union and the SNP are asking why Scottish money should be spent on the rest of the Union instead of Scotland. Fine. Another reason to vote Yes. This is a one of the moments in the Unions long history where Scotland is a net contributor so I guess it wouldn't join.

As with Rizzyking I am slowly losing the will to care. I do believe Scotland will vote Yes at this point. The momentum is with them and the gap is close.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The point about that particular argument, is that Scotland as you experience it is entirely a product of the Union. In order to answer your friend's question honestly, you would first have to postulate what Scotland would be like had it not entered political union in 1707 (and also what England would be like).

The question has been posted repeatedly all over the internet for months now but it is polemical. It assumes that had the union never happened, Scotland and England would be exactly as they are, except governed separately. And almost every version of it that I have seen has been accompanied by a great long screed of all the perceived ills of the UK, in extreme and, IMO, highly distorted detail.

Ultimately it's just another version of the wife beater question. Unanswerable, and best left to one side in any serious consideration of the issues.

---------- Post added at 08:59 ---------- Previous post was at 08:56 ----------

This is one of the as-yet unconsidered dimensions of this whole debate. Whether the result is yes or no - but especially if it is a yes - Scotland is going to have to continue to deal with an England that a significant chunk of its politically active population has spent the last 2 years slandering to utterly outrageous degrees. If separation negotiations are necessary, a lot of goodwill will be required for the Nats to get even half of what they've promised the masses in their "white paper". However, thanks to the Nats' own campaign, goodwill is in extremely short supply.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Same old Scaremongering. We're being constantly talked down by the BT campaign as being incapable of running our own affairs. Really, I find it hard to believe that an innovative, resource rich, country such as ours wouldn't thrive.
Cut through the BS from the politicians and the choice is clear - an interdependent, independence or a vague promise of Super devolution.
Don't you realise that the status quo isn't an option?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Look if you believe every possible drawback of voting Yes is scaremongering then you're not on the fence. You've made up your mind even if you don't it yet. You're a Yes voter.

As I said I don't see what there is to discuss at this point. Derek gives his view, and a article, about the possible drawbacks of implementing a postal service in a largely rural country and you dismiss it as 'same old scaremongering'. If I were to point out the drawbacks of the currency union it would be 'same old scaremongering'.

You either believe Yes or you don't.

BTW In the Banksy cartoon, assume it's real, the girl is scared of the rat. Not shouting at it. That's why she is a little girl.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Believe me, I haven't made my mind up. I was a definite No until recently. I'm cutting my way through screeds of doom and gloom from one side and unicorns and fluffy white clouds from the other. While it may appear to you that I'm now a committed Yes voter that's probably because so few posters on here are arguing against the doom and gloom. Apparently I can't imagine what Scotland would be like without the Union and it will be cheaper for my sister in Australia to post a christmas card to my Aunt in Bournemouth than it will be for me.
:D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Whether you're in the Aye or Naw camp this is quite clever. Stay with it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbW_...ature=youtu.be

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If this hasn't already been posted....genuis :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0flxQCmb5oY

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

If the UK only wants Scotland for it's resources then why are Wales and Northern Ireland still kicking around? Also why didn't we get rid of Scotland when it wasn't a net gain?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Easy one that.

In 2012 when England had droughts and hosepipe bans it was suggested Wales' water (always in good supply due to the valleys and mountains) be shipped over the border to help out.

Our Water companies agreed....but said you'll need to pay for it.

At this point many English people suddenly had an instant change of heart and started declaring "NO! We are the UNITED Kingdom after all, therefore it's our water too".

Selectively united of course.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Well it is our water too. Just like the country is yours as well. Wales is a net beneficiary from the Union after all.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Spoken like a true Englishman ;)

We get a lot of "We don't want/need you" except when we have something that England needs...

Not from all or even most English people but the double standards is always entertaining to watch.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Anyone would think that the Union was only formed 50 years ago. It was formed long BEFORE any oil or potential need for water. What did Scotland and Wales truly offer at that time?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I think the potential need for water pre-dates the Union :D

You would have to ask the many pre-Union invaders why they were bothering to invade this land that had nothing to offer.:erm:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

An inconvenient truth :)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Weren't Scotland bankrupt 300 years ago, a taste of things to come perhaps

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

No, we were only near bankrupt :) If the vote is yes and the SNP achieved a majority in the first independent Scottish Government then bankruptcy is possible. Highly unlikely though.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The Darien scheme didn't end well for the Scots.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Wales doesn't own any water. The water is owned by whoever owns the reservoir, or the pond, or the rights to extract from the river or borehole in question.

Wales doesn't even have a national water company. DC/WW supplies most of Wales and bits of England. Severn Trent supplies bits of Wales, as well as its patch in England.

Whether water is transferred from one company's reservoir to another is a commercial matter. Severn Trent, in 2012, sold some water to Anglian because it was practical for them to do so. They lifted it from boreholes and pumped it into the River Tame. Anglian abstracted it downstream. There was never any realistic chance of DC/WW selling water to any of the companies in Southeast England because without a man-made or natural water course to push it down, the only means of transport is tankers, which is disastrous because of the number you need to transport a useful amount of water.

But don't let the facts get in the way of a good rant. ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Mudoch was tweeted that tonight's YouGov will be shocking. Rumors Yes are ahead.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Great news

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

So there wasn't a debate in 2012 about whether or not the companies servicing the water storage in Wales should make a charge for the transport of it over the boarder?

Them's some vivid dreams I've been having ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Don't let them dreams get in the way of a good fact ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That would depend entirely on what you mean by "debate". If you mean, some people spoke up and said that should happen, and other people spoke up and said it shouldn't, then yes, there was a "debate".

However, there is still a "debate" over whether the moon landings were faked. Just because someone says something, doesn't mean that it should be taken seriously. In the case of water, there is no legal framework that would allow for a charge to be made, purely and simply because it had crossed a border from Wales to England. The nature of any charge would be one company, based in England, paying a commercial charge for purchase of a product or service of another, based in Wales, but the fact that they were either side of a border would be entirely incidental.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Questions.

1. What is their definition of a " fairer society"

2. What do they mean by " Scotland will get the government they vote for" a meaningless statement.

Certainly a percentage won't

3. If it's Scotland's pound too, surely it's rUK's oil too?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Yes has a two point lead in new YouGov poll.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Sigh. Looks like we're going to have to win this the Canadian way.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

You mean cheat :confused:

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Can't be bothered anymore. Scotland have made it clear what they think of the Union, it's served it's purpose and now they want to leave.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Thing is, and is probably hasn't argued, but I haven't seen any downsides for rUK should the scots bugger off.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Kevin Bridges: Live at the Referendum

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04h8kvx

lol

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Disruptive to our economy. Our GDP drops. We'll be a smaller country with smaller clout.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Disruptive, but not detrimental, from what I've read.


by how much, and for how long.? As I say, from what I have read, it won't be that massive an impact.


by land mass, economy or population?

I don't think losing 10% of the welfare hungry scots will be that big an issue

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Scotland is a net contributor to the UK. We'll lose out. It's the second most productive region after London and the South East.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

"Region" I thought it was supposed to be a country.

I haven't seen the numbers, to argue the point and you have provided them. but I'd be very surprised if we were to be very worse off by cutting them loose.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Quite.

In other excellent news - http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/06/...poll-yes-lead/

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Won't Scotland and lose out on GDP and tax income, when certain companies move south?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Varies from year to year, but they are way more 'productive' than Wales, Northern Ireland or most of England.

---------- Post added at 00:42 ---------- Previous post was at 00:42 ----------

Yes.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Jimi sends his regards, in fact he said if "Chris, Derek, Russ, Stephen and especially osem need a big hug" he is happy tae oblige.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Yougov record a 22 point swing in less than a month, just after the SNP encourage their supporters to sign up for them. Hmmmm.

Also less widely reported is the latest panelbase survey (as discredited as they are) shows a no lead.

If Yes win I'll be surprised. Out my family, close friends and work colleagues the breakdown of votes are.

Me - No
Wife - No
Parents - No
Brother - Yes
Office of 9 - 6 No, 1 yes, 2 undecided (probable yes)
Close friends - 6 No, 1 undecided

I suppose I need to find more complete halfwits to work and socialise with to get a closer balance to the Scottish average.

---------- Post added at 08:11 ---------- Previous post was at 08:10 ----------

jimi can get tae *$#£ :D

---------- Post added at 08:13 ---------- Previous post was at 08:11 ----------

Ask a Yesser that and the general response is - But we will be free, and erm, oil, whisky, Freedom!! :(

Reality, especially economic reality escapes them.

---------- Post added at 08:19 ---------- Previous post was at 08:13 ----------

I do love how Rupert Murdoch has basically switched from being Satans more evil older brother to being the saviour of Scotland in the nats eyes.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Eck better not be banking on oil receipts too much as there is likely to be some very bad news on that front in 2016 but by then the issue will be resolved either by scotland being independent or not sorted by no winning and the whole sorry saga dragging on.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Somewhat inconveniently for Yes Scotland, they also published a poll this weekend. Panelbase, their favourite pollster, says it's Y:44, N:48, D/K:8. With Don't knows stripped out it's 52-48 in favour of No.

It's well worth having a look at the poll tracker at www.http://whatscotlandthinks.org/ . Survation, Panelbase and Yougov are all polling regularly at the moment, but Yougov is the only one showing any significant shift from No to Yes. Something peculiar is happening, but I can't quite make up my mind what it is. I am sure, however, that Scotland is not in the middle of a sudden and dramatic shift to Yes.

---------- Post added at 09:36 ---------- Previous post was at 09:34 ----------

Yes. Absent a currency union, almost the entire banking sector will be required by EU law to become domiciled in the remaining UK.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

....and with currency union?

---------- Post added at 10:01 ---------- Previous post was at 09:54 ----------

Define halfwits?

I'd have thought that somebody who continues to argue for the status quo when the status quo isn't an option might fit into that category ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Good luck with Alec at the helm Scotland. :D

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

They wouldn't be. Although rUK now has a choice between underwriting a Foreign backing sector or gaining a bigger banking sector. Another reason to doubt that Scotland will be granted a Currency Union.

Yes look like they're going to win so we'll see if rUK is bluffing on the Currency Union.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I'm going to have to bugger off to a desert island somewhere, two more weeks of this bollocks will do my head right in.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I still think it will be a no vote. However, if it is a Yes vote I think that common sense would prevail and there would be a currency union. The finance sector isn't the only sector that has to be considered and no currency union would be detrimental to other sectors on both sides of the border.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

An interesting question. EU law says banks must be in the member state where most of their customers are. Whether they would make an exception for Scotland, if its banks were in the same currency zone, I don't know.

However, there will be no currency union with an independent Scotland. If there is a CU, then it will be part of a face-saving framework that allows Salmond to say Scotland is independent ... but it won't be. A nation of 5 million people that has to have its budget approved by the next-door nation 10 times bigger is not independent.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It will be detrimental but not to the degree that it's common sense to have one. Sterling would be subject to a Foreign nation's economy. If Scotland took on a lot of debt and/or went on a spending spree that would impact upon the value of the Pound. If Scotland took on too much risk it would be up to rUK to underwrite it rather than Scotland due to rUK being the bigger entity - look at Germany and Greece - which would mean Scotland has a incentive to have a much riskier banking sector because it's the mugs across the border underwriting it. Incidentally this situation isn't reversed. rUK wouldn't be able to turn to Scotland to bail it out.

It's no where near common sense for rUK to join into this. The only way it would work is if rUK were in charge of regulation of the finance sector, put limits on what Scotland could spend and how much debt they would take on, and set all monetary policy.

In other words a political union to match the monetary one. This is what we already have and Scotland wants to leave it.

rUK will not bail out iScotland. It's political suicide for politicians this side of the border to contemplate such a scenario. We didn't join the Euro either and the only reason people think the Currency Union is a foregone conclusion is because Yes have been making up economics as they go alone.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

That is what I have been saying all along. Wanting to retain the monarchy, the pound, the EC membership and any other bits that might win a few Yes votes. The real choice is between an interdependent independence and a, yet to be defined, increased devolution.

Real independence isn't really possible in the modern world:
There is the possibility that Scotland could vote to remain part of the Union but a UK referendum has them leaving the EC, or Scotland votes Yes and rUK leaves the EC.

No matter how the vote goes on the 18th there are interesting political times ahead in these isles of ours.

---------- Post added at 11:09 ---------- Previous post was at 11:05 ----------

Common sense was too loose a term to use. I meant common sense for the many sectors who have businesses both sides of the border..

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

As an aside the YouGov poll is very weird. It seems there is a MORI poll (or ICM?) coming this week which uses face-to-face and phone polls as well. That might help give us a clearer picture.

I think it's too late to offer devo-max now. Scotland needs to vote a clear Yes/No to Independence and then the question can be asked if further devolution is needed should the vote be No.

I would rather the British Government spent time formulating the plan for a Yes vote. Where to put Trident. How to deal with the hit from the finances including Salmond's threat not to take on debt and to cut corporation tax.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Delighted with this new poll, hope the lead holds.

Darling ruined an economy, now he has ruined a pro Union campaign. Most useless MP ever, after Gordon Brown of course.

A point mooted by my mum yesterday, if Scotland did go yes, how many MP's from Scotland would each party lose in Westminster? And how would that affect the current Parliament?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

IIRC 1 Tory and about 40 Liebour. It'll go some way to redress the inbuilt bias in the house of commons.

(See West Lothain Question)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Thank you for the answer.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Panic stations! All hands on deck etc, etc, etc.

"Scotland offered increased powers as parties unite to rally no voters. George Osborne says country will get more say in its own tax, spending and welfare after surge in support for yes campaign".

All of the tough talking rhetoric on welfare and the NHS in recent weeks won't have helped.

Cardigan.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

One of the rags said on it front pafe that if there is a YES vote a border control would be set in place.

Which could mean if you live in Scotland and you work in England, and you have committed certain offences you could possible refused entry in to England/UK.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Why?!?!?! Don't the Govt get it,the more they offer & give, the more will be demanded. Jesus, let the Scottish go Indy if they want it, but just refuse all the stupid conditions. Has no one in power got any backbone these days. How hard can it be to say No.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I really hope these latest polls are just a blip and that common sense prevails and more people will choose to vote no on the day.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

This would, of course, work both ways.

---------- Post added at 14:04 ---------- Previous post was at 14:03 ----------

As Chris said earlier, the Canadian solution is looking ever more likely.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Apparently the competition is neck and 'eck... :)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

It seems the yougov weighting has turned a 53:47 in favour of the Union into a yes majority.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2014/09/41.jpg

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

This isn't unusual. You can't use unweighted samples because it distorts the results. In that one especially they seem to have a lot of English born voters.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

How can you tell that? ;)

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

In all honesty, I think it's quite silly to read anything into a survey of 1084 people, especially when another one says the opposite to it.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Only if there was an oil union. If it's their pound too, it's our oil too

---------- Post added at 20:25 ---------- Previous post was at 20:21 ----------

The referendum is potentially 5 million voters. 1084 voters doesn't really cut it in my book.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The Panelbase isn't that different really. A point or two off when you consider margin of error. The survey's are constructed to represent the population at large, hence sampling and weighting. They're usually pretty accurate.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Isn't the "Yes" argument the other way around? IE Because it's supposedly also Scotland's Pound that currency union is automatically there as a result of that.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Article as to why Scottish Independence isn't to be welcomed down South: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29103437

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Well YouGov does get things horribly wrong occasionally. http://www1.politicalbetting.com/ind...in-april-2010/

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Yup but this time they're closer to other polls. It's certainly looking like it's neck and neck.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

Provided that the new devolution proposals are clearly defined and true commitments then the opinion polls will swing significantly back towards the BT together.

One of the main reasons that the Yes campaign has been gaining ground is because over the uncertainties of what devomax involved.

If this "plan of action" is poorly constructed then it may backfire. It may be perceived as being a means of pulling the wool over the eyes of the electorate. I suspect that this plan has been sitting on the back burner for a while and need only be revealed if there seemed the likelihood that there was a real chance of the YES campaign succeeding... or am I just being cynical?

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

The proposals aren't new. They seem to be what was offered already but with a more concrete timetable for implementation. However since they're enshrined in law there were certainly going to come.

The polls won't swing back either. The energy behind Yes seems to be one of optimism and hope rather than pragmatism. Yes has never answered how all their hopes will be paid for or why a Currency Union would happen but they're surging ahead anyway and accusing critics of scaremongering.

I think it's looking more like a Yes vote will win.

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 

I'm hoping you're wrong. If they intend to regurgitate vague promises and stick vague deadlines on in then it will backfire. Much of the YES alleged "surge" is, I suspect, largely a knee-jerk opposition to the condescending politics of Westminster.

I still think it will be a No, possibly even a resounding NO!, but if the BT heavyweights misjudge the mood in Scotland it could just be a Yes.

It's very unique being part of it. People are engaging in politics in a way that I have never witnessed before. It's very empowering; having a historical vote that could define your country for future generations.

The Yes campaigners had a large presence in my local Main Street yesterday morning. I had an interesting discussion with a Yes gentleman and expressed some of my main concerns. He didn't exactly enlighten me because he trotted out the party line. What was interesting, and kind of surreal, was that I was expressing BT concerns to a Yes campaigner who had an obvious English accent! A Yorkshire lad that has resided here for 30 years as it transpired.

Even if we're separate we'll still be together ;)