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-   -   Eurozone will collapse... (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33678876)

Kursk 16-03-2017 21:08
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
There's a mutually beneficial negotiation to be struck if they want it; if they don't, everyone loses. We know it; they know it and it will happen imho.

I also think there could be a new European Union if some fundamental change is made to the existing structure.

OLD BOY 20-03-2017 14:53
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kursk (Post 35890359)
There's a mutually beneficial negotiation to be struck if they want it; if they don't, everyone loses. We know it; they know it and it will happen imho.

I also think there could be a new European Union if some fundamental change is made to the existing structure.
What the EU needs is one central Government and politicians, rather than Civil Servants, in charge.

Simples.

Osem 07-06-2017 16:13
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Spanish bank Banco Popular has been rescued from the brink of collapse by larger rival Santander for one euro
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40184347

I see the Spanish banking sector is in good health.

Osem 10-06-2017 17:42
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Not looking any better in Italy either:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eur...-idUKKBN18Z0Q5

Quote:
Italy's biggest banks may help Rome bail out Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca to avoid being hit by costly depositor guarantees if European regulators shut them down, sources close to the matter said on Thursday.

Mick 05-08-2017 16:20
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
'On a collision course' Poland and EU closer to Polexit than EVER BEFORE, expert warns

POLAND and the European Union have locked horns in a conflict that has made a Polexit scenario closer to reality than ever before, an expert has claimed.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...ave-EU-Polexit

Osem 05-08-2017 16:43
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
But why would they do that? :confused:

The EU is perfect as they must now know and there's only gloom and certain doom outside of its warm, cuddly, all embracing security... :rolleyes:

RizzyKing 05-08-2017 23:17
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The relationship between the EU and most of the eastern european countries is abysmal at best and while i do think Poland will jump first they won't be the last one to bin the EU creating big problems for the EU. Freedom of movement is going to be the lead weight that drags the EU down as it was implemented for the easy transition of professionals and workers across the block and has ended up in practical terms causing ever more immigration putting a strain on all member states. The old guard may have their heads in the sand but the calls for major reform of the EU are increasing and much like when the UK tried to get meaningful reform so far it's being met with nein and non all the time.

The EU's inability to adapt to current trends cost it the UK and will cost it at least one eastern european country soon. If it's to survive in any meaningful way it better start listening to the practical people rather then constantly taking only the idealists seriously.

1andrew1 05-08-2017 23:51
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35910963)
The relationship between the EU and most of the eastern european countries is abysmal at best and while i do think Poland will jump first they won't be the last one to bin the EU creating big problems for the EU. Freedom of movement is going to be the lead weight that drags the EU down as it was implemented for the easy transition of professionals and workers across the block and has ended up in practical terms causing ever more immigration putting a strain on all member states. The old guard may have their heads in the sand but the calls for major reform of the EU are increasing and much like when the UK tried to get meaningful reform so far it's being met with nein and non all the time.

The EU's inability to adapt to current trends cost it the UK and will cost it at least one eastern european country soon. If it's to survive in any meaningful way it better start listening to the practical people rather then constantly taking only the idealists seriously.
Why would Eastern European countries want to stop freedom of movement? They have gained from it.

TheDaddy 06-08-2017 08:38
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35910967)
Why would Eastern European countries want to stop freedom of movement? They have gained from it.
How have they gained from a brain drain of skilled workers and a mass exodus of young people, because they send a few quid home every now and then?

1andrew1 06-08-2017 09:07
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35910983)
How have they gained from a brain drain of skilled workers and a mass exodus of young people, because they send a few quid home every now and then?
Unemployment in those countries has reduced significantly and direct investment from overseas has been easily achieved helping lift standards of living in the countries. The EU enjoys very high approval ratings in these countries and people see it as another defence against Russia. The only countries that have decided to leave the EU have been islands on its peripheral - Greenland and the UK. The Continent is firmly behind the EU despite many predicting the Netherlands and France would elect anti-EU leave candidates.

TheDaddy 06-08-2017 09:12
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35910986)
Unemployment in those countries has reduced significantly and direct investment from overseas has been easily achieved helping lift standards of living in the countries. The EU enjoys very high approval ratings in these countries and people see it as another defence against Russia.
Unemployment has reduced significantly because there's no one left there apart from the old and unambitious, I think Bulgaria has lost a third of its citizens for instance.

1andrew1 06-08-2017 10:41
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35910987)
Unemployment has reduced significantly because there's no one left there apart from the old and unambitious, I think Bulgaria has lost a third of its citizens for instance.
Not even close. Bulgaria joined the EU on 1 January 2007 with a population of 7.66m. Its population is now 7.10m.

TheDaddy 06-08-2017 11:05
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35911008)
Not even close. Bulgaria joined the EU on 1 January 2007 with a population of 7.66m. Its population is now 7.10m.
Who said anything about since it joined the EU? Try checking from the early nineties when the curtain came down and you'll find it's not only close it's spot on. If you want to talk about post EU Estonia has lost a fifth of its already tiny population to free movement and some politicians in Poland are welcoming brexit as young skilled poles might just go home

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...tain-leaves-EU

1andrew1 06-08-2017 11:36
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35911020)
Who said anything about since it joined the EU? Try checking from the early nineties when the curtain came down and you'll find it's not only close it's spot on. If you want to talk about post EU Estonia has lost a fifth of its already tiny population to free movement and some politicians in Poland are welcoming brexit as young skilled poles might just go home

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...tain-leaves-EU
We've been talking of EU freedom of movement, not when the Iron Curtain came down.

RizzyKing 06-08-2017 14:30
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Ok Andrew there are no mass protests in Poland, Hungary and Romania they are all shiny and happy bathing in the EU glow lol Bulgaria has increasing protests and all freedom of movement has meant for most eastern european is a loss of their doctors, nurses, teachers amongst other professions. Yes they may have benefitted in some ways but they don't feel the gain outweighs the loss and are certainly not fully behind the EU most if not all have called for reform only to be met by the EU wall of silence.

1andrew1 06-08-2017 15:00
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35911068)
Ok Andrew there are no mass protests in Poland, Hungary and Romania they are all shiny and happy bathing in the EU glow lol Bulgaria has increasing protests and all freedom of movement has meant for most eastern european is a loss of their doctors, nurses, teachers amongst other professions. Yes they may have benefitted in some ways but they don't feel the gain outweighs the loss and are certainly not fully behind the EU most if not all have called for reform only to be met by the EU wall of silence.
When exactly did Poland, Hungary and Romania join the Eurozone? They haven't so they're not relevant to any talk of Eurozone collapse.
If we're moving onto the EU, they all want to stay. It was hard for their residents to travel whilst behind the Iron Curtain so freedom of movement is understandably something they're keen on. Ditto, they welcome the protection that the EU gives them from Russian domination as it can use its economic clout to try and protect them.

pip08456 06-08-2017 16:16
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35911075)
When exactly did Poland, Hungary and Romania join the Eurozone? They haven't so they're not relevant to any talk of Eurozone collapse.
If we're moving onto the EU, they all want to stay. It was hard for their residents to travel whilst behind the Iron Curtain so freedom of movement is understandably something they're keen on. Ditto, they welcome the protection that the EU gives them from Russian domination as it can use its economic clout to try and protect them.
That EU economic clout worked well for Ukraine.

1andrew1 07-08-2017 01:20
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35911086)
That EU economic clout worked well for Ukraine.
Ukraine's not in the EU but the EU, US and other countries have indeed applied limited sanctions against Russia due to its involvement and annexation in Ukraine. The EU sanctions would have been far more severe and doubtless more effective if the country attacked was an EU member.

pip08456 07-08-2017 01:26
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35911146)
Ukraine's not in the EU but the EU, US and other countries have indeed applied sanctions against Russia due to its involvement and annexation in Ukraine.
I know it's not in the EU but it demonstrates how ineffectual the so called "economic clout" is.

1andrew1 07-08-2017 01:52
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35911148)
I know it's not in the EU but it demonstrates how ineffectual the so called "economic clout" is.
The sanctions applied on behalf of a member state would be more severe and therefore more effective than those applied on behalf of a non-EU country like Ukraine. Hence why Eastern European countries are keen members.

pip08456 07-08-2017 02:11
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35911150)
The sanctions applied on behalf of a member state would be more severe and therefore more effective than those applied on behalf of a non-EU country like Ukraine. Hence why Eastern European countries are keen members.
And you know this because you can provide an example where it has been successfully applied?

Or is it because you still wear those rose tinted EU spectacles.

1andrew1 07-08-2017 08:03
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35911153)
And you know this because you can provide an example where it has been successfully applied?

Or is it because you still wear those rose tinted EU spectacles.
And you know it's false because nothing that the EU does is ever good.

Mick 07-08-2017 12:02
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35911160)
And you know it's false because nothing that the EU does is ever good.
Sorry Den, EU only does good, if it involves them feathering their own nest.

RizzyKing 07-08-2017 14:53
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
It was the EU trying to get Ukraine to join and NATO expansion into Ukraine that created the situation in the Ukraine so while they might not have been an actual member they were being persuaded by the EU to become a member. Russia clearly wasn't put off by any aspect of the EU in attacking Ukraine or taking their territory.

Osem 07-08-2017 15:02
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35911218)
It was the EU trying to get Ukraine to join and NATO expansion into Ukraine that created the situation in the Ukraine so while they might not have been an actual member they were being persuaded by the EU to become a member. Russia clearly wasn't put off by any aspect of the EU in attacking Ukraine or taking their territory.
Correct. Ill considered EU expansionism has a lot to answer for and not just with regard to Ukraine.

1andrew1 30-08-2017 00:06
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Looks like the Eurozone is on a roll. Romania is lining up to join and the currency is soaring in value against the Ł and $.
Quote:
“The location of the [potential North Korean] conflict and the parties involved make the euro, rather than the US dollar, the preferred safe haven currency of choice,” said FX analyst Jane Foley at Rabobank.
“The result is further strengthening of the euro exchange rate this morning, with the euro breaking 40 pips through the big $1.20 threshold. Robust economic data from France this morning provided further platform for the liftoff of the euro.”
At the same time the dollar has weakened as Donald Trump’s economic promises have not yet come to fruition, unwinding the US currency’s strength from earlier this year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...-against-euro/

Chris 30-08-2017 00:16
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Great. A strong Euro will put the final nail in the coffin of the weak southern states soon enough.

1andrew1 30-08-2017 00:23
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35914502)
Great. A strong Euro will put the final nail in the coffin of the weak southern states soon enough.
They buy stuff from us keeping people in jobs so why you want other countries to fail is bewildering.

TheDaddy 30-08-2017 03:02
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35914507)
They buy stuff from us keeping people in jobs so why you want other countries to fail is bewildering.
We'll feel the ramifications if it does fail pretty much the same as if we were still in the club

Damien 30-08-2017 07:25
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The Euro might fail but people have been predicting it's imminent collapse for the last 5/6 years, for now it's escaped the immediate peril it was in a few years ago.

OLD BOY 30-08-2017 10:20
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35914516)
The Euro might fail but people have been predicting it's imminent collapse for the last 5/6 years, for now it's escaped the immediate peril it was in a few years ago.
That may be true for now, but the Euro is inherently unstable, and problems will arise in the future, sad to say. Only central control over fiscal policy throughout the EU will resolve the issues, and there is a lot of opposition to this obvious solution.

Chris 30-08-2017 10:27
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35914507)
They buy stuff from us keeping people in jobs so why you want other countries to fail is bewildering.
Country? No. Currency keeping a country in penury? Yes. Greece will be better off once it crashes out of the Euro.

Osem 30-08-2017 11:46
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The fundamental problems of the Euro straightjacket remain and aren't going away any time soon. For now Brexit is a nice diversion for some people but when it's done and dusted (and quite possibly before that) the spotlight will once again fall on the inherent problems facing the Euro and the markets will act accordingly as they always do.

The only way Greece can hope to prosper is to get out of the Euro and start rebuilding its economy and it can't do the latter being bogged down with so much debt and being constrained by EU financial and political policy.

RizzyKing 30-08-2017 12:37
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Brexit has been a godsend in that regard for the EU everything has been moved squarely to the back boiler due to brexit and it's allowing some wriggle room but not much and many southern european nations are still circling the economic drain.

Ignitionnet 30-08-2017 19:07
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35914536)
The only way Greece can hope to prosper is to get out of the Euro and start rebuilding its economy and it can't do the latter being bogged down with so much debt and being constrained by EU financial and political policy.
Greece grew faster than we did in Q1 and is anticipated to grow 2/3rds faster in Q2 and at twice the rate in Q3. A pattern that I very much hope doesn't continue.

That growth is of course from a very low point. They had their opportunity to leave the Euro and declined. The Eurozone have built up extensive shock absorbers in the interim.

Inside the zone their only option was extensive internal devaluation which it seems is what they've done and their economy is on the mend, with caveats due to the massive public debt.

Horrendous mess though :(

Osem 30-08-2017 21:19
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35914546)
Brexit has been a godsend in that regard for the EU everything has been moved squarely to the back boiler due to brexit and it's allowing some wriggle room but not much and many southern european nations are still circling the economic drain.
Correct.

heero_yuy 30-05-2018 11:45
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Quote from RizzyKing:

Brexit has been a godsend in that regard for the EU everything has been moved squarely to the back boiler due to brexit and it's allowing some wriggle room but not much and many southern european nations are still circling the economic drain.
Looks like Italy is closing in on the plug hole:

Quote:
Quote from The Sun:


Brussels was yesterday blamed for Italy’s political crisis which threatened to bring down the Eurozone.

Shares and bond markets plunged after Italian President Sergio Mattarella vetoed the appointment of a Eurosceptic finance minister in a new anti-establishment coalition.

The coalition partners, populist 5-Star and far-right Lega Nord, claimed Eurocrats were behind the move and pointed the finger at Brussels.

It came as a gauge measuring the likelihood of the debt-ridden nation leaving the Euro jumped to 11.3 per cent from 3.6 per cent in April.

Amid the turmoil, the Euro crashed to a six and a half month low against the Dollar. And European commissioner Guenther Oettinger intensified anger by saying the crisis would teach Italians not to vote for populist parties next time.

5-Star called for him to resign and said it was a glaring example of the “obvious manipulations that Italian democracy has suffered”.

OLD BOY 30-05-2018 15:12
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35948579)
Looks like Italy is closing in on the plug hole:
I am seriously concerned about more bail-outs becoming necessary in the near future. Just as well we are leaving this dreadful club, in my opinion. Why some people want to remain wedded to this calamitous organisation is really beyond me.

The financial ruin lies in continuing membership of it, not Brexiting as many remainers believe.

nashville 30-05-2018 15:41
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Sooner we are out the better,

Carth 30-05-2018 16:15
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
What's the Italian for "we could spend that 4000 million euro on the NHS" ?

:D :D :D :p:

OLD BOY 30-05-2018 18:16
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth (Post 35948604)
What's the Italian for "we could spend that 4000 million euro on the NHS" ?

:D :D :D :p:
Add 'as an option' to that and hopefully the Italians won't read it as literally as some of our more narrow minded voters did :D:D:D:rolleyes:

Chloé Palmas 30-05-2018 18:16
Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
What's the Italian for "we could spend that 4000 million euro on the NHS" ?
Lol, last year (just before the previous government looked about ready to collapse), all their public transport employees went on strike:

https://www.thelocal.it/20170706/ita...s-train-strike

So I am sure that there is a massive bus somewhere laying dormant that someone could plaster it on the side of....


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